Nadal does not win the French Open, risk 500 to win 450

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  • Poisec
    SBR MVP
    • 07-22-18
    • 1215

    #1
    Nadal does not win the French Open, risk 500 to win 450
    Very fine odds considering Nadal is looking terrible, yet he is the big favorite as usual to win the French Open.

    I am just betting on what I see, and this is Nadal 2015 I am seeing recently. I see good value, the public is blinded by the fact it is clay GOAT we are talking about.

    Physically I see a big decline in him, will need to win a lot of matches in straight sets to have a chance to go all the way. Can't see him happening, he is playing terrible and youngsters have now the physical advantage over him. The guy is turning 35 next month.
  • Poisec
    SBR MVP
    • 07-22-18
    • 1215

    #2
    Wish me good luck on paper it looks like the worst bet you can make, but only on paper IMO.

    Rooting for Tsitsipas, Djokovic, Thiem, Rublev, these guys are now physically stronger than Nadal.
    Comment
    • Easy-Rider 66
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 02-14-12
      • 36096

      #3
      Get em Poisec.
      Comment
      • jjgold
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 07-20-05
        • 388179

        #4
        It’s a great bet

        We’ve all seen he’s not as dominant anymore because of age and there’s a lot a great young players coming up
        Comment
        • slayer14
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 08-12-13
          • 22010

          #5
          Nadal has a extra gear at french open
          Comment
          • Brooklyn Dick
            SBR MVP
            • 09-12-08
            • 1067

            #6
            Nadal is beatable on Clay 2 out of 3 sets. But it is a different story 3 out of 5. That said it is still better to go against him at this price though. But won't be easy.
            Comment
            • jjgold
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 07-20-05
              • 388179

              #7
              He is 35 years old

              All you need to know
              Comment
              • SamsNCharge99
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 10-22-08
                • 41242

                #8
                Beat him 3/5. Whats his record there 107-2 or something stupid
                Comment
                • Foxx
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 05-25-11
                  • 5830

                  #9
                  Originally posted by jjgold
                  It’s a great bet
                  We’ve all seen he’s not as dominant anymore because of age and there’s a lot a great young players coming up
                  Kiss of death for your bet Poisec. Sorry for your loss.
                  Comment
                  • slayer14
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 08-12-13
                    • 22010

                    #10
                    Next year go against nadal not this year he seems very emotional to win another french this year
                    Comment
                    • DR225
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-24-11
                      • 2010

                      #11
                      You'd get a lot more value if you made this bet deep into the tournament as he isn't going to get knocked off early. In the entire field, there's only like four or five guys who can beat him.
                      Comment
                      • jjgold
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 07-20-05
                        • 388179

                        #12
                        DR excellent point!
                        Comment
                        • ChuckyTheGoat
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 04-04-11
                          • 37206

                          #13
                          Originally posted by jjgold
                          DR excellent point!
                          Not one to (normally) question one's bet. This bet strikes me as insane.

                          For a while, the pundits thought Nadal might NEVER lose at Roland Garros. Guy's track record at French and on Clay (in general) is crazy good. Would think he could win, even if he's at 60%.

                          Good Luck!
                          Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                          Comment
                          • Thrilla
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 03-10-15
                            • 13809

                            #14
                            Homie1975 check in pls
                            Comment
                            • Maizey
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 08-11-18
                              • 226

                              #15
                              Originally posted by DR225
                              You'd get a lot more value if you made this bet deep into the tournament as he isn't going to get knocked off early. In the entire field, there's only like four or five guys who can beat him.
                              Valid point, but not a certainty. By waiting, you also give up the possibility of him going out early with an injury.
                              Comment
                              • El Nino
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 05-03-12
                                • 18426

                                #16
                                Thought the same thing last year...

                                Maybe you'll get lucky with an early injury. Otherwise, come the quarters, semis, and the final you'll get better odds on his opponent.
                                Comment
                                • Poisec
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 07-22-18
                                  • 1215

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by DR225
                                  You'd get a lot more value if you made this bet deep into the tournament as he isn't going to get knocked off early. In the entire field, there's only like four or five guys who can beat him.
                                  Not necessarily, cannot predict but let's suppose he looked vulnerable to reach the quarters and faces Thiem who looked good, Thiem would be at +300, if Nadal wins the match, faces Tsitsipas, goes through and faces Djokovic in the final. You lost money on Thiem and Tsitsipas already and get +150 on Djokovic in the final. Not a great deal.

                                  I see your point but so many things can happen that I didn't want to bother.


                                  @El Nino yeah last year I thought Nadal wouldn't win but didn't dare to pull the trigger, glad I didn't. This year I am going to trust my gut feeling on this one. Rome will give some answers.
                                  Comment
                                  • PharaohUB
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-23-07
                                    • 4865

                                    #18
                                    I like it. Which book are you making this bet?
                                    Comment
                                    • Poisec
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 07-22-18
                                      • 1215

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by PharaohUB
                                      I like it. Which book are you making this bet?
                                      Thanks. It's a lay bet on Easysportbet (a Betfair broker). If you are in the US I guess you can use Orbitx through Asian Connect, the odds should be the same.
                                      Comment
                                      • ChuckyTheGoat
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 04-04-11
                                        • 37206

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Poisec
                                        Thanks. It's a lay bet on Easysportbet (a Betfair broker). If you are in the US I guess you can use Orbitx through Asian Connect, the odds should be the same.
                                        Hope u win, man. Ballsy call.

                                        It's one of those things. How much are historical stats baked into the line? What is reality?

                                        I love all sports. I'll give u a comparison that might sound ridiculous:

                                        *Recent USA Olympic qualifying tournament: Burroughs vs Dake.

                                        Dake is younger, he had been chasing down Burroughs for years. Burroughs held the national team spot for 10 yrs.

                                        Surely, Burroughs had to be the Fav. (Note: not sure there was a line). As it played out, Dake dominated and won.

                                        When you look back at it, how could Dake not be the fav? He was stronger, younger, less burnt out.
                                        Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                        Comment
                                        • Poisec
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 07-22-18
                                          • 1215

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
                                          Hope u win, man. Ballsy call.

                                          It's one of those things. How much are historical stats baked into the line? What is reality?

                                          I love all sports. I'll give u a comparison that might sound ridiculous:

                                          *Recent USA Olympic qualifying tournament: Burroughs vs Dake.

                                          Dake is younger, he had been chasing down Burroughs for years. Burroughs held the national team spot for 10 yrs.

                                          Surely, Burroughs had to be the Fav. (Note: not sure there was a line). As it played out, Dake dominated and won.

                                          When you look back at it, how could Dake not be the fav? He was stronger, younger, less burnt out.
                                          Good point, I say the odds are based on reputation and past performances of course, he lost only 2 matches at the French Open but last time I saw him that bad on clay was in 2015 and he lost at the French Open in the quarters. I just hope he won't be in the same half of the draw as Medvedev
                                          Comment
                                          • ChuckyTheGoat
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 04-04-11
                                            • 37206

                                            #22
                                            Poise, if u get this one right, you'll look like a genius and be the envy of us all.K

                                            Keep us posted on what # u get down on. Hope u get Field +100 or better. Good Luck!
                                            Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                            Comment
                                            • cincinnatikid513
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 11-23-17
                                              • 45360

                                              #23
                                              he's starting to look human on clay
                                              Comment
                                              • PharaohUB
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-23-07
                                                • 4865

                                                #24
                                                If we think nadal might be dethroned this year thiem seems a good play at 8-1. He’s been the second best performer in this tournament in recent years and he seems to have a knack of turning it on for grand slams even if his recent form isn’t convincing
                                                Comment
                                                • jjgold
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 07-20-05
                                                  • 388179

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by PharaohUB
                                                  If we think nadal might be dethroned this year thiem seems a good play at 8-1. He’s been the second best performer in this tournament in recent years and he seems to have a knack of turning it on for grand slams even if his recent form isn’t convincing
                                                  seem suffering from depression

                                                  stay away from him
                                                  Comment
                                                  • hawkwind
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 04-25-11
                                                    • 4055

                                                    #26
                                                    Like IT GL
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ChuckyTheGoat
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 04-04-11
                                                      • 37206

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by jjgold
                                                      seem suffering from depression

                                                      stay away from him

                                                      Theim it is!
                                                      Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • chargers4222
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-16-10
                                                        • 4702

                                                        #28
                                                        There is one guy playing better and more consistently than anyone else in the world and I haven't heard him mentioned one time in the RG winner conversation -- Aslan Karatsev.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • stepaside777
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-16-17
                                                          • 1447

                                                          #29
                                                          i think it makes sense
                                                          i have already won against nadal by betting on zverev and rublev as i said the same hes not that amazing anymore, but time will show
                                                          if he can win RG federer will win wimbledon
                                                          Comment
                                                          • PharaohUB
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-23-07
                                                            • 4865

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by chargers4222
                                                            There is one guy playing better and more consistently than anyone else in the world and I haven't heard him mentioned one time in the RG winner conversation -- Aslan Karatsev.
                                                            I plan to put a little on him but it seems guys who come out of nowhere like that don’t do well in grand slams in my humble experience. I think the top guys pace themselves better and train for grand slams where karatsev trying to win everything.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • TheMetsSuck
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 01-14-12
                                                              • 6146

                                                              #31
                                                              Lotta value. I personally would never bet against Rafa in the French. Betting Rafa to win the French have been some of the biggest wins in my gambling career.

                                                              Good luck
                                                              Comment
                                                              • jjgold
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 07-20-05
                                                                • 388179

                                                                #32
                                                                Nadal has tough match tomorrow be sinner
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Unrivaled
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 10-24-11
                                                                  • 6685

                                                                  #33
                                                                  I don't like this at all. Djokovic not in form, who will beat him?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Unrivaled
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 10-24-11
                                                                    • 6685

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by jjgold
                                                                    Nadal has tough match tomorrow be sinner
                                                                    French open starts May 23.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • jjgold
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 07-20-05
                                                                      • 388179

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Tomorrow
                                                                      More important to Nadal
                                                                      Than French
                                                                      Comment
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