US Open Picks and Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 06-10-25, 08:49 AM

US Open picks to win from SBR's Esten McLaren:

Scottie Scheffler (+260 via Caesars)

"Scheffler has three PGA Tour victories since his fourth-place finish in the Masters, including his first career PGA Championship victory. He followed that with a win in the Memorial Tournament Signature Event as his last competitive outing entering this week.

He re-solidified his status as the No. 1 golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) after McIlroy had begun to close the gap with his hot start to the season.

Scheffler ranks first in this field in strokes gained: tee-to-green (3.78) and SG: approach (2.12), and is third in SG: off-the-tee (1.16) per round across everyone's last 16 measured rounds.

It's tough to love these short odds and the 26.32% implied win probability in a 156-man major field, but he still headlines our U.S. Open picks to win."

Shane Lowry (+4500 via DraftKings)

"Lowry begins this week 12th in the OWGR following a T-13 finish in the Canadian Open and a T-23 in the Memorial Tournament before that. He tied for 42nd in the Masters and missed the cut in the PGA Championship, but he has four top 10 results this year.

He was a co-runner-up in the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont, and he tied for sixth in two of four majors last year, so I'm not too troubled by this year's major results thus far.

Lowry's among the most accurate drivers in this field across his last 16 rounds, and his 0.97 SG: approach per round over that time rank fourth among all PGA Tour golfers."

Keegan Bradley (+10000 via Caesars)

"This really isn't as much about the long odds and potential $1,000 profit on a winning $10 bet as it's simply about the golfer. These odds should be significantly shorter and are only this long as a result of Scheffler's suppressed odds at the top of the board.

Bradley ranks fourth in this week's field in SG: tee-to-green across his last 16 measured rounds. His 0.60 SG: off-the-tee per round perfectly blends accuracy and distance, both of which will be essential for this week's winner.

The 18th-ranked golfer in the world tied for the eighth in the PGA Championship for his best major finish since the 2022 U.S. Open."

**SBR Andy** · 06-10-25, 09:08 AM

US Open long shot and sleeper picks from SBR's Esten McLaren:

Russell Henley
Best odds to win: +7000 via FanDuel
Alternate bet: Top 20 finish (+188 via BetMGM)

"Henley tied for seventh in last year's U.S. Open and followed that with a fifth-place showing in the British Open. Those were his first top-10 results in majors since a T-4 in the 2023 Masters.

The 36-year-old returned to the PGA Tour's winner's circle for the first time since 2022 with victory in the Arnold Palmer Invitational Signature Event earlier this season. He's maintained strong iron play (0.72 strokes gained: approach per round) and is one of the most accurate drivers in this week's field. We're riding him as part of our best U.S. Open sleeper picks.

A winning $10 bet at FanDuel returns a profit of $700, while other books offer odds of just +5500."

Ben Griffin
Best odds to win: +7500 via FanDuel
Alternate bet: Top 10 after Round 1 (+600 via DraftKings)

"If the U.S. Open was only a few more weeks away, Griffin may have closed among the betting favorites.

For those living under a rock, or those who only pay attention to the majors, the 29-year-old claimed his first solo PGA Tour victory in May (Charles Schwab Challenge), after winning the Zurich Classic with partner Andrew Novak a month earlier.

He tied for eighth in the PGA Championship after just missing out on an invitation to the Masters, and he was the runner-up to Scheffler in the Memorial Tournament. He's been riding a hot putter, but he's also gained strokes in all other key metrics over this incredible run that has vaulted him to No. 15 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR).

He may not win in his first career U.S. Open appearance, so I'd advise getting a piece of the first-round leader market as well."

Harris English
Best odds to win: +11000 via FanDuel
Alternate bet: Top 30 finish (+150 via DraftKings)

"English enters the week at No. 17 in the OWGR following a T-12 finish in the Memorial Tournament. He was a co-runner-up in the PGA Championship after a T-12 in the Masters. His victory in the Farmers Insurance Open ended a 3.5-year victory drought.

English is an accurate driver, has averaged 1.46 strokes gained: tee-to-green per round across his last 16 rounds, and is an excellent putter. All three of those traits will need to be leaned on this week at Oakmont, and a winning $10 bet would return a profit of $1,100 at FanDuel. BetRivers has his odds to win at just +6600."

**SBR Andy** · 06-10-25, 09:24 AM

US Open AI predictions from ChatGPT:

Pick to win: Scottie Scheffler (+280 Caesars)

- Form: Won the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, PGA Championship, and Memorial in three of his last four starts, and hasn't finished outside the top 10 since March

- Course fit: His ball-striking precision and calm temperament make him ideally suited to Oakmont’s narrow fairways, punishing rough, and lightning-fast greens

Predicted winning score: -2 (278)

- Oakmont’s brutal layout historically yields winning scores around even par or slightly below

- DraftKings’ Over/Under for winning score is 278.5 shaded to the Over, suggesting a -2 total is a realistic and competitive target

Long-shot prediction: Brooks Koepka (+6600 BetMGM)

- Oakmont pedigree: Two-time U.S. Open champion (2017, 2018) who thrives on brutal course setups

- Course fit: Experience handling major-style difficulty, narrow fairways, and fast greens - Oakmont demands grit, and Koepka delivers

- Current form trend: Though not dominant this season, he has been known to peak in majors

- Value upside: 66–1 (1.49% implied probability) offers a huge payout boost on a former champ at a course that suits him

Why ChatGPT is fading Rory McIlroy:

- Oakmont struggles: Missed the cut here in 2016, citing “impossible” putting conditions. The greens and layout don’t suit his style

- U.S. Open drought: Despite great form in recent majors, he hasn’t won a U.S. Open since 2011 and has often been inconsistent in final rounds

- Recent putting issues: Rory’s strokes gained putting numbers have dropped in recent starts, which is a red flag at Oakmont, where putting touch is critical

- Public betting trend: He’s consistently overbet in majors, meaning less value in the +1000 line than in similarly ranked players with better track records at tough setups

**SBR Andy** · 06-10-25, 09:31 AM

US Open betting insights courtesy of BetMGM:

“A US Open at Oakmont is one of the toughest tests these players will face. BetMGM customers are leaning towards the proven quality in the field with Scottie Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau becoming significant liabilities. In what could be his last attempt at the career grand slam, Phil Mickelson has also been very well supported and Lefty will definitely be one we want to avoid. Our “Without Scottie Scheffler” market is proving very popular as BetMGM customers look to insure against another dominant performance from the world's number 1.” – Matt Wall, Senior Sports Trader, BetMGM

**SBR Andy** · 06-10-25, 11:03 AM

US Open prop bets from SBR's Dustin Saracini:

Will there be a hole-in-one? NO (-160 at ESPN BET)

"Welcome to one of the simplest wagers in golf – will there be a hole-in-one? We’re kicking off our U.S. Open prop bets with a simple NO - absolutely not, if you will.

For starters, the par 3s at Oakmont are incredibly tough, with a mixture of length and undesirable pin locations hounding golfers in 2016, the last time this course hosted the U.S. Open. To make matters worse, No. 8 is the longest par 3 in the tournament’s history. Now, Hanse and Wagner have since renovated the course with the expectation that greens will be easier to attack, and No. 13 will be the one hole we have to hold our breath, but I’m firmly sitting in the “NO” camp for a hole-in-one this week.

Here's a look at Oakmont’s par 3s.

I’m playing a full unit at -160 here at ESPN BET. Some of our other best sports betting sites have this play at -165 or worse."

Jon Rahm top European golfer (+360 at DraftKings)

"A big part of making these plays is finding a golfer who’s been playing lights-out golf recently, and Rahm fits the bill – we’ll be riding him as part of our best U.S. Open prop bets. Whatever your opinion is of LIV, Rahm has 21 top 10s on the rival tour – yes, that’s every single start of his since he joined as captain of Legion XIII over 18 months ago. Is that good?

Rahm also has a history of winning this tournament, claiming the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines alongside four top 10s in his career.

Another player to watch in this market is Shane Lowry at +1200, who made a charge at the Canadian Open this past week; that's why he's in Esten McLaren's U.S. Open picks to win.

He also finished T-2 at this course in 2016 at 1-under. I’m sprinkling on Lowry but dropping a full unit on Rahm at +360. I’d play this down to +300 prior to Thursday."

Min Woo Lee top 10 finish (+850 at DraftKings)

"Somebody cooked here.

Yes, we are riding with “Dr. Chipinski” as part of our best U.S. Open prop bets this week. It was nice to see him get his first career PGA TOUR win a couple of months ago at the Texas Children’s Houston Open, validating the talent for a man who many believed to be just a “social media star.”

Lee ranks 13th in strokes gained: around the green, which will only help him at a course like Oakmont, and has three straight strong finishes at the U.S. Open (T-5, T-21, T-27). He’s proven he can hang around on the toughest of courses, so we’re dipping into our U.S. Open sleeper picks here with Lee to finish top-10. The +850 value is just icing on the cake.

I’d play the People’s Champ all the way down to +700."

**SBR Andy** · 06-11-25, 08:02 AM

US Open first-round leader predictions from SBR's Esten McLaren:

Keegan Bradley (+6600 BetMGM)

"Bradley will play off the first tee Thursday morning at 7:18 a.m. ET in a group with Harris English and Tommy Fleetwood. Fleetwood is a second-tier contender by the U.S. Open odds, while Bradley and Harris are both considered long shots.

The captain of the U.S. Ryder Cup team is 41st in Round 1 scoring average on the PGA Tour this season. He has a strong short game, sharp irons, and is a consistently accurate driver.

I don't expect Thursday's leader to go low, but instead play it safe while battling the hostile Oakmont conditions. Bradley's experience will give him an edge and can help turn a winning $10 bet into a $660 profit."

Cameron Young (+8000 BetRivers)

"Young came oh-so-close yet again in last week's Canadian Open. The 28-year-old is still looking for his career PGA Tour win. Though he may not find it in a major championship where he has a best finish of T-32 from two years ago, last week's disappointment is likely to fuel a strong start on Thursday.

He'll tee off Thursday at 1:36 p.m. ET, and that may be helping to boost these odds. Young's been riding a hot putter and is one of the better bets to navigate the greens during Round 1 before they're lost for the weekend.

By comparison, BetMGM's +6600 odds would return $140 less on a winning $10 bet."

Thorbjorn Olesen (+12500 BetMGM)

"Olesen ranks eighth on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average for the 2025 season, and he tees off at 8:35 a.m. ET on Thursday.

The Danish golfer enters the week at No. 83 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) and has made six straight cuts with a top finish of T-7 in the Myrtle Beach Classic."

AI first round leader prediction from ChatGPT:

Justin Rose (+10000 BetRivers)

- Oakmont pedigree: 2013 U.S. Open champion with strong experience in major test setups
- Masters first-round history: Led Round 1 at Augusta twice - proven fast-starters in grueling conditions
- Solid early tee time: Drawn in the morning wave (7:40 a.m. ET), when course conditions are typically softer and scores lower
- Odds show value: Rose is well-represented among top long-shots, with standout position in expert picks

**SBR Andy** · 06-11-25, 10:38 AM

Picks I made using available sportsbook boosts:

DraftKings mystery boost (I got 25%, max $5)

Caesars 2 x 30% boost for outright or top 5/10/20 bet (I got $5 max)

bet365 50% profit boost for any market (I got $25 max)

**SBR Andy** · 06-11-25, 01:07 PM

SBR's Dustin Saracini takes a look at the US Open projected cut line and offers his plays:

US Open odds to make the cut, via DraftKings:

US Open cut line history:

Best Bet to make the cut: Min Woo Lee (-120 DraftKings)

"If you’re following along with our U.S. Open 2025 prop bets, you’ll see we love Min Woo Lee in this spot. He’s sitting at a solid -120 to make the cut at DraftKings, and I’ll play that all the way down to -145.

Lee is currently 13th on Tour in strokes gained: around the green - which is key when navigating Oakmont’s challenging layout. He’s also coming off three solid U.S. Open performances, finishing T-5, T-21, and T-27 in his last three appearances."

To make the cut parlay:

Best odds: +548 via DraftKings

**SBR Andy** · 06-11-25, 01:19 PM

US Open betting splits from DraftKings:

**mjsuax13** · 06-11-25, 09:09 PM

I took Morikawa at +2000 ($500 to win $10,000)

**SBR Andy** · 06-12-25, 08:40 AM

Originally posted by mjsuax13

I took Morikawa at +2000 ($500 to win $10,000)

Accurate off the tee and elite iron player. He should be in the mix!

**SBR Andy** · 06-12-25, 09:32 AM

US Open matchup picks from SBR's Dustin Saracini:

Justin Thomas (-120) vs Tyrrell Hatton

"Right off the bat (or club), these odds jump off the page. I love the value we’re getting with Thomas against Hatton.

Thomas is one of the most consistent golfers on the PGA Tour and has made the cut in all but one U.S. Open since 2016. He's more equipped to play at Oakmont and shouldn't have any problem making the weekend, which may just be enough to win this matchup.

Statistically, Thomas ranks higher in strokes gained: approach (eighth) and around-the-green play (27th) than Hatton this season, which is crucial when navigating one of the most difficult courses in the world. Let’s ride with Thomas as part of our best U.S. Open matchup picks this week."

Brooks Koepka (+100) vs Tony Finau

"If it’s one guy who gets up for majors, it’s Koepka. Historically at the U.S. Open, Koepka has gained an average of 1.34 strokes per round on the field, compared to 0.52 for Finau.

Looking back to 2016, when the U.S. Open was at Oakmont, Koepka finished T-13, including a final-round 2-under. He’s used to the difficulties the course presents, which should in itself be good enough to take down Finau this week. Let's back Koepka as part of our best U.S. Open matchup picks this week."

**brock** · 06-12-25, 04:04 PM

My pick. Oh boy.

T139

-

Shane Lowry

+9

F*

+9

79

-

**slewfan** · 06-12-25, 04:42 PM

GL Andy.. . . GL Brock…. MJ

I took Cameron Young to finish in the top 5.

100 dollars pays 1200. Made the play right after he Tee’d off..

**SBR Andy** · 06-12-25, 07:57 PM

SBR's Esten McLaren shares his pick to win after Round 1:

Victor Hovland (+3500 FanDuel)

"Hovland is five shots back of Spaun and two ahead of Scheffler after the opening round. The Norwegian star ranked second in the field with 4.64 strokes gained: approach on Thursday, but he lost 3.08 strokes with his putter. He had averaged 0.25 SG: putting per round across his previous 20 measured rounds.

Hovland missed the cut in last year's U.S. Open but had three previous top-20 finishes in the major championship. He finished T-21 in the Masters and T-28 in the PGA Championship this year.

His second round will begin at 7:40 a.m. alongside Scheffler and Morikawa (even). Playing his first two rounds in the tournament's super group will help prepare him for the weekend pressures as he chases the biggest win of his career."

**SBR Andy** · 06-12-25, 07:59 PM

Originally posted by slewfan

GL Andy.. . . GL Brock…. MJ

I took Cameron Young to finish in the top 5.

100 dollars pays 1200. Made the play right after he Tee’d off..

Pretty good start for him. If he can shoot even again tomorrow he'll be in contention.