NHL WCF: Oilers vs Stars Predictions

**SBR Andy** · 05-20-25, 10:23 AM

NHL Western Conference Finals predictions from SBR's Gary Pearson:

Oilers to Win Series (-110 DraftKings)

"There's not much to choose between these teams, which should make for an instant classic. If you've followed our picks and predictions throughout the season, I've been bullish about the Oilers. And I'm not stopping now, as they can beat you in any number of ways.

Concede the first goal, no worries. Go into the third period at a deficit; all good. Win in enemy environments. Their 4-2 road record in the playoffs, which includes four straight wins, speaks volumes. Excluding the opening two games of the postseason, it hasn't mattered who's between the pipes.

Want to go toe-to-toe with the Oilers in a run-in-gun, high-scoring affair? I dare you.

How about a low-scoring, defensive slugfest? Refer back to Games 4 and 5 against Vegas. Is dragging the game into overtime the way to go? Their 3-0 sudden death record says otherwise.

The Oilers are among the most balanced offenses in these playoffs. Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid were in on just 20% of the goals in the second round against the Golden Knights and 18.5% in the opening round against the Los Angeles Kings. Those percentages are way down from 30.1% in the regular season.

Unless Oettinger stands on his head throughout, the Oilers should get back to the dance."

Oilers vs Stars Series Best Bets:

Oilers to win series 4-3 (+430 FanDuel)
Top goal scorer: Leon Draisaitl (+289 FanDuel)
Correct score after 3 games: Oilers 2-1 (+130 FanDuel)

**Headsterx** · 05-20-25, 01:48 PM

Taking Oilers to win series and then the Cup!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 05-20-25, 03:12 PM

I like the Oilers. Really just one angle:
*Guy like McDavid normally wins a Cup. Sooner or later.
*Athletic peak is cruel and comes quicker than people think. His numbers are down slightly.
*Might be now or never. Been forever since a Canadian team won the Cup. This might be the year.

**SBR Andy** · 05-21-25, 07:33 AM

Oilers vs Stars Game 1 prediction from SBR's Gary Pearson:

Stars ML (-125 BetMGM)

"While I expect the Oilers to prevail in a long, low-scoring series, the opener could differ altogether. The Oilers are 8-1 in the last nine games and were motoring when Kasperi Kapanen jammed home the Game 5 overtime winner against Vegas like he was stoking a fire resistant to relighting.

Since then, the Oilers have been kicking up their feet. When the opening puck drops on Game 1, Kris Knoblauch's team will have enjoyed almost a week of rest. While that should benefit them in the long run, it could throw off their momentum and rhythm in the opener.

The Stars have been idle since Saturday, but three days' rest is much different than seven. Dallas has been rolling at American Airlines Center, winning six straight since losing the opening game of the playoffs to the Colorado Avalanche. That loss was their eighth straight to open a series.

The Stars have since exorcised those demons, winning Game 1 in Winnipeg.

The combination of getting the Game 1 gorilla off their back, playing near flawless hockey since losing to Colorado and Edmonton's extended hiatus has me backing Pete DeBoer's team."

**Optional** · 05-21-25, 12:50 PM

Oilers vs. Stars updated betting insights

Updated betting info via BetMGM

The Stars have remained as -125 moneyline favorites for Game 1
The total is set at 6. The Over shortened marginally from -115 to -118

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 05-21-25, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by Optional

Oilers vs. Stars updated betting insights

Updated betting info via BetMGM

The Stars have remained as -125 moneyline favorites for Game 1
The total is set at 6. The Over shortened marginally from -115 to -118

Opti, I wonder who the most respected NHL modern capper is in the industry.

Dave Cokin and Alan Dinkenson used to be regarded. I believe that each was a +EV NHL capper.

**Optional** · 05-21-25, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Opti, I wonder who the most respected NHL modern capper is in the industry.

Dave Cokin and Alan Dinkenson used to be regarded. I believe that each was a +EV NHL capper.

You must be forgetting https://www.sportsbookreview.com/writers/garypearson/

**Headsterx** · 05-21-25, 07:03 PM

Strike it rich with the Oilers tonight!

**SBR Andy** · 05-22-25, 07:22 AM

The Stars score 5 goals in the 3rd period to take Game 1 by a score of 6-3.

Updated series odds via DraftKings: Stars -190 / Oilers +160

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 05-22-25, 07:28 AM

Originally posted by Optional

You must be forgetting https://www.sportsbookreview.com/writers/garypearson/

Didn't know of him. Opti, at one time I handicapped AFL (Aussie Rules FB) pretty hard. I listened to the games on radio, would like to attend an AFL game someday.

**SBR Andy** · 05-22-25, 08:24 AM

Similar meltdown to the Knicks in the 4th quarter:

https://x.com/BleacherReport/status/1925392047378506198

**Optional** · 05-22-25, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Didn't know of him. Opti, at one time I handicapped AFL (Aussie Rules FB) pretty hard. I listened to the games on radio, would like to attend an AFL game someday.

We will do that hopefully. Just a shame AFL does not line up with Aussie Open or F1 or Aussie Millions.

**Optional** · 05-27-25, 06:13 AM

Connor Cooper writes; The Dallas Stars have been outscored 28-10 on the road in the Stanley Cup playoffs, a trend they'll look to buck tonight against the Edmonton Oilers. However, Edmonton is a -170 moneyline favorite ahead of puck drop for Game 4 of the Western Conference Final from Rogers Place at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN).

Game 4 opening odds

Opening odds via BetMGM.

Puck line: Stars +1.5 (-170) | Oilers -1.5 (+140)
Moneyline: Stars +140 | Oilers -170
Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+100) | Under 6.5 (-120)

Best Stars vs. Oilers player prop bets: Game 4

✅ Jason Robertson Over 1.5 Shots (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Tyler Seguin Over 1.5 Shots (-148 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Zach Hyman Over 0.5 Points (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Jason Robertson Over 1.5 Shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

After missing the first round of the playoffs with a knee injury and then collecting only one point in Round 2, Robertson is starting to look like his old self again. He potted Dallas’ only goal in Sunday's 6-1 loss, attempted 11 shots on goal, and hit the net five times.

The Stars’ regular-season goals and shots leader has also had seven unblocked shot attempts from medium or high danger areas in the last two games.

DraftKings odds on Robertson to record at least two shots on net is tremendous value, especially if he plays on Dallas’ top line once again if Roope Hintz isn’t able to return to the lineup.

Best odds: -125 via DraftKings

Tyler Seguin Over 1.5 Shots ⭐⭐⭐

Although Seguin has been held pointless in seven of his last nine games, he and his linemates are generating plenty of chances. And he scored a pivotal goal in the opening round.

The Stars have attempted more than 60% of the shots in the last five games when Seguin’s been on the ice, and his 15 high or medium danger chances in the playoffs rank second on the team.

Seguin has recorded multiple shots on goal in two of three games in this series, and three of his last four overall.

Best odds: -148 via DraftKings

Zach Hyman Over 0.5 Points ⭐⭐⭐

Hyman hasn’t scored in these playoffs at the same rate as he did last year, when he topped all shooters with 16 goals in 25 games. However, he’s still very much at the center of the action, leading the postseason in body checks and posting a plus-5 rating in Game 3.

It also helps to play with Connor McDavid, who matched Hyman with a pair of goals in Game 3. Look for the linemates to build on that performance with another productive outing Tuesday against a Stars squad that has allowed an average of four goals per road game in the playoffs.

Best odds: -108 via FanDuel

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 05-27-25, 07:15 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

I like the Oilers. Really just one angle:
*Guy like McDavid normally wins a Cup. Sooner or later.
*Athletic peak is cruel and comes quicker than people think. His numbers are down slightly.
*Might be now or never. Been forever since a Canadian team won the Cup. This might be the year.

Sentimental choice = EDM
*Oilers have a chance to break the Canadian team drought.
*McDavid is top player of his generation. Chance to win a Cup here.

All that said, EDM -170 looks way too high. I may look @ Dallas tonite. The negative road stat is some negative variance.

**Optional** · 2025-05-29T20:29:02+00:00

Game 5

Connor Cooper writes; The Dallas Stars will hope some home cooking can solve their scoring woes tonight when they try to live to play another day against the Edmonton Oilers in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Puck drop at American Airlines Center in Dallas is at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN).

Our Oilers vs. Stars prediction and player props, part of our NHL picks, fade two of Dallas’ slumping forwards and back one of the Oilers’ proven veterans.

Best Oilers vs. Stars player prop bets: Game 5

✅ Corey Perry Over 1.5 shots (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Wyatt Johnston Under 0.5 points (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Roope Hintz Under 1.5 shots (+128 via bet365) ⭐⭐

Corey Perry Over 1.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐

Perry is one of the Oilers' forwards expected to get more opportunities after Zach Hyman suffered a season-ending injury in Game 4. He saw some time on the top line with Connor McDavid after Hyman left Tuesday’s contest, and he responded with his sixth goal of the playoffs, tied for second-most on the team.

Even at 40 years old, Perry continues to be a consistent offensive threat. He’s attempted seven shots over the last two games, hitting the net on four of them, and he’s had six unblocked attempts from high or medium danger areas in the last three.

Best odds: -125 via DraftKings

Wyatt Johnston Under 0.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

To say Johnston is in a slump would be an understatement. After averaging nearly a point per game during the regular season, the 22-year-old has been held pointless in seven straight postseason games and nine of his last 10.

Worse yet for the Stars, Johnston isn’t showing any signs of breaking out of his funk. He failed to record a shot on goal in Game 4 - the fourth time in six games that he’s had one or fewer shots on net - and he hasn’t had more than one unblocked attempt from medium or high danger areas in five straight.

Best odds: -115 via FanDuel

Roope Hintz Under 1.5 shots ⭐⭐

After missing Game 3 with a lower-body injury, Hintz returned to the Dallas lineup on Tuesday. He didn’t look at all like his usual self, however, attempting zero shots in 17 minutes of ice time.

Even prior to the injury, Hintz hadn’t been producing at his typical level. He’s been held without a shot on goal in three of his last four games and managed one or fewer in four of his last five. At this generous plus money price, I’ll bank on those struggles continuing in Game 5.

Best odds: +128 via bet365

Game 5 opening odds

Opening odds via BetMGM.

Puck line: Oilers +1.5 (-235) | Stars -1.5 (+195)
Moneyline: Oilers +100 | Stars -120
Over/Under: Over 6 (-102) | Under 6 (-118)