(NFL) Week 07 plays

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Road Favs were 9-0 ATS last week. What could go wrong?

2* NEW ORL Saints +2.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

2* PITTSBURGH Steelers +1.5 1.93: 2 to win 1.86

3* TAMPA BAY Bucs +3.5 1.93: 3 to win 2.79

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Some commentary. Of course, these are just my opinions:

1) Pretty common for people to back the 1st-time starter QB on injury replacement. Didn't work out this time, so people are reluctant to back him again. I don't think this is a good spot for Denver at all. Nix now a Road Fav.

2) I would have passed at -1.5. Is the fav flip based on the Jet acquisition of Adams? I don't see that as a solution. Steelers have been resilient. They have a tough defense and a good kicker, so I think the Home Dog points are value.

3) Feel like the Bucs are playing too well to catch this price. Home Dog, and our price is north of a Field Goal. Ravens are not a perfect team. One phony trend that is floating out there, Jackson is something like 22-1 SU vs NFC. Sure, but he's like 11-11 ATS in those games, so how is that a trend?

[agendaman]

chucky love the saints. listen the 49rs opened at plus 1.5 vs chiefs.now they are -1.5.your thoughts.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

chucky love the saints. listen the 49rs opened at plus 1.5 vs chiefs.now they are -1.5.your thoughts.

Hi, agenda. I'm very sensitive to the line moves. I don't like betting a game after peak # has gone.

If you're holding a Niners +1.5 ticket, you should feel good. I'm giving the Chefs a long look at the Dog price. For one thing, we'd be getting a magical QB (Mahomes) versus Mr Irrelevant. Mahomes has shown me a lot. Last year they won with less than their best, and his track record as Dog is very good.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Kan City Chiefs +1.5 1.94: 1 to win .94
...Mahomes as a Dog.
...Still think the Niners are not quite right.

1* Philadelphia Eagles -3 1.90: 1 to win .90
...9-0 ATS trend on NFL Road Favs (last week). Looks like a short price.
...Eagles conceded a long blocked FG return TD last week. Otherwise, they win more comfortably.
...Eagles came out of the bye healthier than they were three weeks ago. OT Thomas = key Giant injury.

[veriableodds]

GL this week Chuck. I have noticed KC seems to be beating ATS this year, unlike prior years.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GL this week Chuck. I have noticed KC seems to be beating ATS this year, unlike prior years.

Hey, veri, thanks. I think KC is vulnerable like any NFL team. Just that I like the value this week.

Two SF injury factors that I rate as more than negligible:
*RB McCaff still out. People can blow off the RB injuries. He was averaging one TD per game for a long stretch.
*K Moody still out. Wright had a good game @Sea, but he's a guy off the street. Butker is a much better kicker.

[ChristianBauer]

Road Favs were 9-0 ATS last week. What could go wrong?

2* NEW ORL Saints +2.5 1.94: 2 to win 1.88

2* PITTSBURGH Steelers +1.5 1.93: 2 to win 1.86

3* TAMPA BAY Bucs +3.5 1.93: 3 to win 2.79

Nix could be responsible for a swing in offensive knowledge that reflects what will be in in the NFL for a decade.

The NYJ have Rodgers to highest degree possible.

BAL run game components = + sum for more than 1 year in the league

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2* ARIZ Cardinals +2.5 1.95: 2 to win 1.90

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Nix could be responsible for a swing in offensive knowledge that reflects what will be in in the NFL for a decade.

The NYJ have Rodgers to highest degree possible.

BAL run game components = + sum for more than 1 year in the league

Hi, Christian. You don't like my picks?

Feel free to bet other side. I'm cool with that.

[ChristianBauer]

Hi, I see. I was answering the question "what could go wrong?"

Thanks for posting your picks.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hi, I see. I was answering the question "what could go wrong?"

Thanks for posting your picks.

Oh. Ya, it's gambling. A lot could go wrong.

Thanks. And Good Luck.

[ChristianBauer]

Thanks! BTW, you had felt it was a bad spot for denver... Have you looked into their run game over the past 20 years? I found Estime "any time TD" over .5 +880. Does he score a touchdown in this game less than 1/5th of the time to anyone out there? Look at the Denver running backs over the years, look at the running game. They must be on top of the running game was a consideration of mine looking at them since drafting a QB so high.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thx for reading, CB. Handicapping is a game of uncertainty for sure. We just do the best we can.

[Madison]

Like your angle, not your pick.

The Saints enter Week 7 as a walking MASH unit. Their top two receivers, Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (meniscus) will join injured QB Derek Carr on the sidelines,

Pass, for me, and understand your play. This is an interesting time in the NFL (Separation time). Some teams (NE, CAR, Etc) have already shown their colors. The only hope for many teams is a conference move. Worried about the Bills coasting given their competition. Time to start watching the intra-conference games (Heightened importance). Meaningless out of Conference less focus. Game of attrition!

With all that said NO qualifying depends on how they do vs ATL,CAR, TB. Get healthy come January.

[Madison]

Like your angle, not your pick.

The Saints enter Week 7 as a walking MASH unit. Their top two receivers, Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (meniscus) will join injured QB Derek Carr on the sidelines,

Pass, for me, and understand your play. This is an interesting time in the NFL (Separation time). Some teams (NE, CAR, Etc) have already shown their colors. The only hope for many teams is a conference move. Worried about the Bills coasting given their competition. Time to start watching the intra-conference games (Heightened importance). Meaningless out of Conference less focus. Game of attrition!

With all that said NO qualifying depends on how they do vs ATL,CAR, TB. Get healthy come January.

Expecting MIN and a few others to take a non scheduled bye one of these weeks.

[Madison]

My mostly useless play for the week would be CIN/WSH to win ML or Tease. No great value circa 100/80.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Like your angle, not your pick.

The Saints enter Week 7 as a walking MASH unit. Their top two receivers, Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (meniscus) will join injured QB Derek Carr on the sidelines,

Pass, for me, and understand your play. This is an interesting time in the NFL (Separation time). Some teams (NE, CAR, Etc) have already shown their colors. The only hope for many teams is a conference move. Worried about the Bills coasting given their competition. Time to start watching the intra-conference games (Heightened importance). Meaningless out of Conference less focus. Game of attrition!

With all that said NO qualifying depends on how they do vs ATL,CAR, TB. Get healthy come January.

Thx, Mad. I hear you.

One approach I take on NFL capping is not to allow the narrative trigger my play. I've heard so many people tell me the Saints can't win this game. I'm fine being on the short-side.

Go back to the pre-season A Priori's. Was some discussion that Rattler could be in place to supplant Carr (who is aging and immobile). The line move on the last game was > 5 points and across 3, so really even more.

How much displacement can a mediocre QB justify? I'm perfectly good playing this side. Because I view it as a toss-up type of game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Houston Texans +3 1.91: 1 to win .91

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Carolina Panthers +10 1.87: 1 to win .87
...Wash is a public bet. Skins have over-achieved YTD.
...Carolina is undesirable. Not many people betting them.
...One notable injury for WASH: RB Robinson missed last week, ?? this week. Noteworthy b/c he's the one RB that gets a lot of carries. Wash rush game struggled last week, and I think Ekeler is too old.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* New Eng Patriots +6.5 1.95: 1 to win .95
...# ticked up. Catching a more generous price.
...JAX pass defense is incredibly porous. 14/1 TD/INT ratio for opposing QBs YTD.
...Maye is an unknown commodity. But I view him as an upgrade over Brissett, who lost his job.
...Jag players openly talked about "quitting" last week. You don't hear candid comments like that too often.
...I think the travel factor is slightly overrated. It's a five-hour flight from Boston to London. That's the equivalent of NY to LA in the states.
...It's not like the Patriots are flying to the moon. It's viewed as a "must-win" game for Pederson. But that doesn't mean that he's GOING to win.

[johnnyvegas13]

Morning chuck …

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Morning chuck …

Hi, john. Props on the Dawgs.

Wish I had a better feel for these games. I'm probably betting too many sides this week.

[johnnyvegas13]

Chuck I will post my plays shortly

I think I got some good stuff today

[ChuckyTheGoat]

1* Carolina Panthers +10 1.87: 1 to win .87
...Wash is a public bet. Skins have over-achieved YTD.
...Carolina is undesirable. Not many people betting them.
...One notable injury for WASH: RB Robinson missed last week, ?? this week. Noteworthy b/c he's the one RB that gets a lot of carries. Wash rush game struggled last week, and I think Ekeler is too old.

2nd unit on CAROL +10 1.93: 1 to win .93
...Now catching the full 10.
...+10 is a full TD higher than the pre-season lookahead line of +3.

[str]

2nd unit on CAROL +10 1.93: 1 to win .93
...Now catching the full 10.
...+10 is a full TD higher than the pre-season lookahead line of +3.

A ton of points.

Washington has not been a 10 point favorite for the last 10 years.

Closest was -9 1/2 to the Giants 10 years ago and they lost outright.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

A ton of points.

Washington has not been a 10 point favorite for the last 10 years.

Closest was -9 1/2 to the Giants 10 years ago and they lost outright.

Thx for the note, str. Yeah, I'm not kidding myself.

Just one of these NFL spots where the points look too generous. So easy to back WASH today.

[str]

Thx for the note, str. Yeah, I'm not kidding myself.

Just one of these NFL spots where the points look too generous. So easy to back WASH today.

Favs killed it last week and the public wants the next great QB. Kid seems really impressive but man, he's a hit away from a big problem. Hope it does not happen but... you know the game.
He has work to do to be better at taking care of himself out there.

GL today Chucky.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Favs killed it last week and the public wants the next great QB. Kid seems really impressive but man, he's a hit away from a big problem. Hope it does not happen but... you know the game.
He has work to do to be better at taking care of himself out there.

GL today Chucky.

That's a great point. I made a similar comment about Richardson (IND). Talented player, but his Hazard Rate is very high.

One NFL trend that's held up over six decades = running QB showing flashes but struggling to maintain health.

[jackpot269]

GL Today GTG.

ATL.........-8....(-108)
DET.......+2.5..(-108)
LVR........+7....(+100)
KC........+2.......(-108)
PHILY..-3.......(-108)

Thanks for your insight. Always good info!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

GL Today GTG.

ATL.........-8....(-108)
DET.......+2.5..(-108)
LVR........+7....(+100)
KC........+2.......(-108)
PHILY..-3.......(-108)

Thanks for your insight. Always good info!!

Hi, Jack. My confidence is pretty shot (at the moment). GL on your plays.

[jackpot269]

GL Today GTG.

ATL.........-8....(-108)
DET.......+2.5..(-108)
LVR........+7....(+100)
KC........+2.......(-108)
PHILY..-3.......(-108)

Thanks for your insight. Always good info!!

atl was -3

[ChuckyTheGoat]

atl was -3

Figured that was a typo.

[Madison]

Favs killed it last week and the public wants the next great QB. Kid seems really impressive but man, he's a hit away from a big problem. Hope it does not happen but... you know the game.
He has work to do to be better at taking care of himself out there.

GL today Chucky.

he's a hit away from a big problem.

Mr Str ... Exactly. I reluctantly used WSH in my survivor this week fearing that very thing.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

he's a hit away from a big problem.

Mr Str ... Exactly. I reluctantly used WSH in my survivor this week fearing that very thing.

Mad, str was spot-on. He called the injury. It was coming.

I've referenced this angle in some of my points. Any QB has a given HAZARD RATE when they start a game. How likely are they to get knocked out of a game they start?

Richardson IND might be 20%. Daniels WASH might be 10%, until he proves otherwise.

The thick QBs might be less glamorous. But availability is one hell of a skill.