(Coll FB) Week 06 plays

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-06-24, 03:33 PM

2* RICE +3.5 1.95: 2 to win 1.90

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-06-24, 07:23 PM

2* IOWA -2.5 1.88: 2 to win 1.76

2* WYOMING +1.5 1.90: 2 to win 1.80

**Eddy Munny** · 10-06-24, 07:29 PM

These

Are

Week 7

Plays

You

Insufferable

Donkey!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-06-24, 07:59 PM

2* Air Force +4.5 1.93: 2 to win 1.86
...I know they're bad. But the Lobos have one of the worst defenses in the nation. So, the backdoor is wide-open (if AF happens to be trailing).

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-06-24, 08:16 PM

3rd unit on NORTH CAROL +6 1.96: 1 to win .96
...Really don't think the QB is the issue.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-06-24, 08:22 PM

2* Purdue +20 1.85: 2 to win 1.70
...This is a massive # for Illinois to lay.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-06-24, 08:38 PM

2* FLA ATLANTIC +6.5 1.92: 2 to win 1.84

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-07-24, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

2* RICE +3.5 1.95: 2 to win 1.90

3rd unit on RICE +5 1.92: 1 to win .92

3rd unit on AIR F +6.5 1.92: 1 to win .92

1* UAB +25.5 1.91: 1 to win .91
...I'm expecting QB Zeno to miss. Florida transfer Kitna started last week.
...I'm familiar with Army. This is a massive # (when they don't have many possessions). Army DEF is not great.

1* Vanderbilt +14 1.91: 1 to win .91
...Vandy off the biggest win in school history. But KY also off a big win (over Ole Miss).
...Commodores look like value. Series history says that Wildcats don't win big in Lexington.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-07-24, 04:59 PM

2* ARIZ ST +6.5 1.96: 2 to win 1.92
...More Rising drama.
...If he plays, it's fair value. If he misses, it's a great bet IMHO.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-07-24, 09:13 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

2* FLA ATLANTIC +6.5 1.92: 2 to win 1.84

3rd unit on FLA ATL +7 1.91: 1 to win .91

2nd unit on UAB +27 1.87: 1 to win .87

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-07-24, 09:13 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

2* IOWA -2.5 1.88: 2 to win 1.76

2* WYOMING +1.5 1.90: 2 to win 1.80

3rd unit on IOWA -2.5 1.91: 1 to win .91

3rd unit on WYOM +2.5 1.91: 1 to win .91

**Eddy Munny** · 10-07-24, 09:32 PM

Guy bets half the board but can't even decipher what week we're in. Unreal.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-07-24, 11:19 PM

1* UCF -3 1.87: 1 to win .87

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-07-24, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

1* UCF -3 1.87: 1 to win .87

1* WAKE FOR +20.5 1.91: 1 to win .91

**DrunkHorseplayer** · 10-07-24, 11:41 PM

Originally posted by Eddy Munny

Guy bets half the board but can't even decipher what week we're in. Unreal.

I think he knows.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-07-24, 11:50 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

1* WAKE FOR +20.5 1.91: 1 to win .91

Some subtle points on why I think Wake Forest is value:
*Clem beat NCSt w/o McCall. Wake just beat NCSt in a game McCall started.
*The Clem win over AppSt looks less and less impressive. AppSt having a nightmare season.
*The Clem-Stanford boxscore tells a different story. Stanford left a lot of points on the board, could have been closer.
*FlaSt was playing with a backup QB last week.
*Wake QB/K are decent. Clemson is not great. Think it plays a little closer.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-07-24, 11:51 PM

Originally posted by DrunkHorseplayer

I think he knows.

Week lines up with NFL week for simplicity. And fuk-off, Eddy.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-08-24, 10:00 AM

2* Arizona +5.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82
...I think there are a few things fraudulent about this BYU team.
...Didn't expect to see this price. I like the points.

**Chiefs83** · 10-08-24, 10:07 AM

Don’t see how they are frauds…they dominate up front on defense vs anybody in their league.

Kansas St game very impressive to beat that team like they did
SMU game looks better and better

**Chiefs83** · 10-08-24, 10:12 AM

I do agree with you on Arizona St. I made my bet on Utah believing Rising will play with the season on the line. With him they are a playoff team.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-08-24, 10:40 AM

Originally posted by Chiefs83

Don’t see how they are frauds…they dominate up front on defense vs anybody in their league.

Kansas St game very impressive to beat that team like they did
SMU game looks better and better

Hey, Chiefs. I respect everyone's opinion (including yours). This is a msg-board, so opinions are expressed.

Specifically, here was going to be my retort. And it ties to the two games you listed:

1) For sure, BYU's win over SMU looks good. Mustangs look like a legit team.
...My counter is that they played versus QB Stone. I mentioned that Stone was re-habbing from a broken leg.
...I don't think he recovered the way they were hoping. Phillips is more mobile. Not sure BYU would have beaten SMU w/ Phillips at QB.

2) The KAN St final is one of those curious boxscores.
...The KAN St QB Johnson helped out BYU with interceptions.
...And BYU hit on an amazing 93-yard punt return TD.

Anyway, just my opinion. I'm happy to take these points. Arizona would been a mid-size fav in pre-season.

**Chiefs83** · 10-08-24, 01:47 PM

I watched the whole game the black quarterback replaced stone in the 2nd quarter or series and he played well that stone never got back in the game I believe. I respect your opinion tho it’s another angle of looking at the game

**Chiefs83** · 10-08-24, 01:50 PM

Just hear to make money I do know you are playin too many games

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-08-24, 01:56 PM

Originally posted by Chiefs83

I watched the whole game the black quarterback replaced stone in the 2nd quarter or series and he played well that stone never got back in the game I believe. I respect your opinion tho it’s another angle of looking at the game

OK, good info. I see that the HC made the change during that game.

Yes, Phillips is quick. I do think there's something to prepping a QB during the week.

SMU has certainly been better w/ Phillips. But that was a good BYU defensive performance to hold SMU to five field goals.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-08-24, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by Chiefs83

Just hear to make money I do know you are playin too many games

It's a valid point. I sometimes bite off too much.

I have a very specific approach. My goal is for my Net to reflect a series of small edges (against the #).

**Eddy Munny** · 10-08-24, 08:54 PM

Originally posted by DrunkHorseplayer

I think he knows.

Cool story, bro.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-08-24, 09:30 PM

Tues: +2.73/3. Nice to get off to a good start.

**Eddy Munny** · 10-08-24, 09:37 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Week lines up with NFL week for simplicity. And fuk-off, Eddy.

Why would it need to line up with NFL? It never has.

The entire free thinking world has always known college football is one week ahead of NFL.

Your use of the word "simplicity" is a misnomer to appeal to your own incompetence with common knowledge.

No one else seems to have a problem grasping elementary numbers.

**veriableodds** · 10-08-24, 09:56 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

It's a valid point. I sometimes bite off too much.

I have a very specific approach. My goal is for my Net to reflect a series of small edges (against the #).

Hey chuck do you think sos# is a good indication as to small advantage? Just because a team had a few good situations in a game, or played impressive for a few possessions warrant a value especially if it only is a couple points? Might help with volume. One experience I ran into before, even did it last season was going against good teams. Yeah, I've won a few but more often than not get burned. I do remember you said that it was a good filter.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-08-24, 10:30 PM

Hi, veri. I should have clarified what I meant by that. I do think SOS is strong rating variable.

But my plays are based on Projection and Margin between (Projection minus Market).
...In this particular game, I thought that Fla Intl projected to play a good bit closer to Liberty than the market line.

What I was trying to say was that it's easy for someone to say "Liberty is undefeated. Ergo, they'll likely win tonite."
...If you go a little deeper, there are a lot of teams that would be undefeated against Liberty's schedule.
...Also, my SOS comment goes back to 2023. Liberty got the bowl bid as top Group of 5 team. That bid should have gone to SMU on merit. Liberty earned the right to play Oregon. And Liberty got rolled by an Oregon team that was interested.

**veriableodds** · 10-08-24, 10:52 PM

Yeah I see your 3*FL INT pick w/comments post#1 nice hit.

**veriableodds** · 10-09-24, 04:26 PM

OK Chuck had extra time so spit another list this week. #next to team is the value in the line -vs- predicted score model.
coastal carolina 5.5
Purdue 6
miss state 6
air force 3.5
Arkansas state 4.5
NC state 4
I eliminated a lot of the 3 thru 3.5V as at least in my opinion is not enough value to even try finding an edge

**johnnyvegas13** · 10-09-24, 04:31 PM

Chuck I am looking for another lottery upset after hitting candy but I don’t see it

I wasn’t joking about being done w college after winning that …

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 10-09-24, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by veriableodds

OK Chuck had extra time so spit another list this week. #next to team is the value in the line -vs- predicted score model.
coastal carolina 5.5
Purdue 6
miss state 6
air force 3.5
Arkansas state 4.5
NC state 4
I eliminated a lot of the 3 thru 3.5V as at least in my opinion is not enough value to even try finding an edge

Thx, veri. Appreciate your input. I sometimes use your info as a filter.

My comments:
1) I'm on Purdue as well. As long as Card plays, I think the # can hang.
...I bought a half-pt on this game. Call it a hunch re: landing 20.
...Illinois has excellent kickers. Chance that they could win by 2 TD + 2 FG (=20).

2) I could see it on Miss St.
...The MissSt QB Shapen is out. But is it a downgrade? If you like the replacement QBs, then that is a big # for a Conf game.

3) I've been on an island on Air Force.
...I bet em and re-bet. I love AF this week.
...FYI: New Mexico had been 0-9 ATS as a Fav. Lobos did win by 10 as -8 vs NewMexSt, so that's now 1-9 ATS.
...New Mexico DEFENSE is simply one of the worst. AF has a chance to win, and if trailing backdoor is wide-open. Two chances to cover.

4) Re: NCSt, take a look at your model.
...QB McCall is potentially an NFL prospect. He's out.
...Pretty big dropoff to backup Bailey. McCall could be worth 4 or 5 pts IMHO.

Good Luck!