Bettors Anonymous

[ddittie]

Question is do I drive up tomorrow to get 1k on Detroit moneyline

[DJK]

Question is do I drive up tomorrow to get 1k on Detroit moneyline

I live in PA but currently staying in a casino hotel in Atlantic City, NJ for the next 2 weeks straight.

This may sounds crazy but I can bet it for you if you trust me. Save gas money. LOL

[ddittie]

I live in PA but currently staying in a casino hotel in Atlantic City, NJ for the next 2 weeks straight.

This may sounds crazy but I can bet it for you if you trust me. Save gas money. LOL

lol Ty. It’s all good tho. Between posting my plays and not being able to bet unless I drive there it’s helped me. Otherwise I’d be betting everything hah

since this game is meaningless for the Lions I’m hesitant. I think they will win but they should be smart and rest for next week, so I’m not betting it.

[DJK]

lol Ty. It’s all good tho. Between posting my plays and not being able to bet unless I drive there it’s helped me. Otherwise I’d be betting everything hah

since this game is meaningless for the Lions I’m hesitant. I think they will win but they should be smart and rest for next week, so I’m not betting it.

Hopefully, Dan Campbell doesn't think this game is meaningless and revenge last year's loss.

The only thing that bothers me is that too much of public is on Detroit which can't be good.

I can only hope that the action will balance out somewhat by the game time.

On a different note, I was at Caesars book to make a big wager on the Packers but before I placed the bet I ask the clerk what people are betting on and he said just about all "Packers" which was different from what I saw of the public betting percentages where it was about 50/50.

So, I laid off the bet and sure enough I would've lost. In reality, I almost bet the Vikings instead which I should have.

[ddittie]

I thought packers would win myself.
Minnesota played well but packers beat themselves.

i don’t think nfc is in same tier as the top 3 afc teams
tho.

i hate to bet against the Chiefs but it’s hard to win 3 straight. Going with the Ravens and Chiefs ML rest of the way, unless they face each other then I’ll take whoever is the underdog.

[ddittie]

Looks like this week parlay will be:

ATL ML -440
CIN O16.5
GB O16.5
TB O19.5
MIA O9.5
Current odds is +120

If it falls below +110, I will add Minnesota O18.5 to get it back over +130.

[ddittie]

I did change it again;

[ddittie]

DJ did you tail any of these plays?

[DJK]

DJ did you tail any of these plays?

I should have since it would have doubled my payout odd from 3.2X to 6.6X.

I wanted to add the Bengals ML and had I done that, the payout odd would have been 12.4X.

My current ML parlay has 1 more leg to go for about $4K payout, which could have been $16K if I added yours and Bengals.

But that's if I win the last leg, of which I may have to hedge out depending on what I see of the line movements and what not.

I didn't take Atlanta ML and that definitely saved me.

[ddittie]

Well Minnesota starting out very badly for me. On the 3 yard line and go for it on 4th down. They should have ran it three straight times if they planned on going for it on 4th.

[ddittie]

Man…. Literally same thing again. They are killing me. RUN RUN RUN

[ddittie]

So disappointed I jumped on Minnesota bandwagon thinking their defense would be the difference. In only this simulation does the worst playoff defense in the league hold the Vikings to under 20. lol. I wanted the lions to win so bad, but damn, I thought it wasn’t possible. Should have just gambled and put them on my ml

[ddittie]

Lose parlay -$1,000
Season: +$2,424.37

[ddittie]

Going up to place this 7 leg parlay tomorrow:

BAL O19.5

BUF O19.5

PHI O19.5

TB O16.5

PHI ML

BUF ML

BAL ML

(+186)

2k to win 7162

will post ticket tomorrow

[ddittie]

Going up to place this 7 leg parlay tomorrow:

BAL O19.5

BUF O19.5

PHI O19.5

TB O16.5

PHI ML

BUF ML

BAL ML

(+186)

2k to win 7162

will post ticket tomorrow

I lied. Took a look at my finances and can't afford to gamble. tehe.

Gotta make a safer play.

[DJK]

Well Minnesota starting out very badly for me. On the 3 yard line and go for it on 4th down. They should have ran it three straight times if they planned on going for it on 4th.

It's crazy to think that a shitty team like the 49ers can hang 34 on Detroit and yet Minnesota who is much better than the 49ers scores only 9.

I wanted to bet the Vikings on the spread but seeing how the line wasn't budging with a lot more bets on the Vikings made me not to bet and that saved me money.

I don't know what the odd was on the Lions team totals, but that may have been the better pick.

[ddittie]

	Team Total Over	Odds
Buffalo Bills	19.5	-650
Baltimore Ravens	19.5	-575
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	18.5	-575
Washington Commanders	16.5	-455
Philadelphia Eagles	16.5	-600
Green Bay Packers	12.5	-550
Denver Broncos	9.5	-900
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.5	-900

This is looking like my parlay. Season scoring habits suggest it hits ~65% of the time. Current payout is +198. Taking off Pit, its +174, or taking off Pit and Den its +153. Denver has scored 10 or more in 16/17 games, scoring 6 in Week 2. Pittsburgh has hit 9 or more in all games this year. Altogether, these teams have scored over these point totals in all but 7 of the 135 games they've played this year, discounting only Buffalo's last game of the season which they rested starters.

Total's record thus far is 6-3. Hitting at 66%, which is right at what I usually setup these point parlays to hit at.
If you were able to make this exact points parlay every week (assuming in some instances the books let you bet as low as 8.5, you would have gone 11-6. Which is 64%, which means the math suggests a win is due to get you up to 66%

That's my long explanation for justifying risking more than I should. This is my ALL-IN bet of the week. I will be risking $2,000.

[DJK]

	Team Total Over	Odds
Buffalo Bills	19.5	-650
Baltimore Ravens	19.5	-575
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	18.5	-575
Washington Commanders	16.5	-455
Philadelphia Eagles	16.5	-600
Green Bay Packers	12.5	-550
Denver Broncos	9.5	-900
Pittsburgh Steelers	8.5	-900

This is looking like my parlay. Season scoring habits suggest it hits ~65% of the time. Current payout is +198. Taking off Pit, its +174, or taking off Pit and Den its +153. Denver has scored 10 or more in 16/17 games, scoring 6 in Week 2. Pittsburgh has hit 9 or more in all games this year. Altogether, these teams have scored over these point totals in all but 7 of the 135 games they've played this year, discounting only Buffalo's last game of the season which they rested starters.

Total's record thus far is 6-3. Hitting at 66%, which is right at what I usually setup these point parlays to hit at.
If you were able to make this exact points parlay every week (assuming in some instances the books let you bet as low as 8.5, you would have gone 11-6. Which is 64%, which means the math suggests a win is due to get you up to 66%

That's my long explanation for justifying risking more than I should. This is my ALL-IN bet of the week. I will be risking $2,000.

So, you are not adding the team moneylines at all?

[ddittie]

It's crazy to think that a shitty team like the 49ers can hang 34 on Detroit and yet Minnesota who is much better than the 49ers scores only 9.

I wanted to bet the Vikings on the spread but seeing how the line wasn't budging with a lot more bets on the Vikings made me not to bet and that saved me money.

I don't know what the odd was on the Lions team totals, but that may have been the better pick.

It's just unlucky variance.
I setup these parlays so that they hit at 6/9 or 10 times (66%). Each individual leg is 85% or higher to hit. Notice when I lose it's typically
news worthy events. Minnesota missed a fg, and was inside the 5 yard line on 7-10 plays without scoring a TD. It was just unlucky, bad coaching/playing/play-calling.

[ddittie]

So, you are not adding the team moneylines at all?

No money lines. Too much of a gamble. Playoff games tend to go down to whoever has the last possession.

[ddittie]

[ddittie]

DJK, adding PHI,BUF,BAL MLs to this parlay pays +433. So, I might bet $500 on that, and $1,500 on just the points. I'll drive up today and decide once I get to Kansas tonight.

[ddittie]

1k on this

[ddittie]

DraftKings Current Odds:
• Detroit Lions: O30.5 (Bye)
• Buffalo Bills: O29.5 (+114 odds)
• Baltimore Ravens: O29.5 (+142 odds)
• Green Bay Packers: O28.5 (+390 odds)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: O26.5 (-120 odds)
• Washington Commanders: O25.5 (+124 odds)
• Philadelphia Eagles: O25.5 (-105 odds)
• Minnesota Vikings: O22.5 (-142 odds)
• Denver Broncos: O25.5 (+310 odds)
• Los Angeles Chargers: O22.5 (-108 odds)
• Houston Texans: O22.5 (+140 odds)
• Kansas City Chiefs: O21.5 (Bye)
• Los Angeles Rams: O19.5 (-205 odds)
• Pittsburgh Steelers: O17.5 (+120 odds)


Observation:
Rams, Vikings, and Buccaneers are the only bets with negative implied odds, which may affect profitability.

These teams score above these totals 58% of the time (have scored at or above these margins in at least 10 games this season).

[ddittie]

Lost this ticket, and probably the only leg will be on the Broncos O9.5, that missed fg cost me 4k basically.

[ddittie]

Todays bet of the week is a 4 way parlay

Eagles, Bills, Chiefs Over 17.5 & Washington over 15.5

it pays +144 and I have $1,500 on it.

[ddittie]

Let’s go!!
one of the easiest cashes all season