A Quant vs. USMA 1992

ChuckyTheGoat · 08-28-24, 07:41 PM

Wow, pretty cool. Can't beat a donation to charity.

A true rivalry requires some venom, box checked. Good Luck, boys!

usma1992 · 08-28-24, 07:52 PM

Lol... I appreciate you... I just find to be A Quant to be a privileged.... insert word here. In addition, who names themselves A Quant... It is like calling yourself SuperMan. You named your dog Chucky not you. I actually think this season proves very little. I am on the verge... of producing a viable product. This season in conjuction with last several means something. I am so close.

A Quant · 08-28-24, 08:42 PM

Originally posted by usma1992

Lol... I appreciate you... I just find to be A Quant to be a privileged.... insert word here. In addition, who names themselves A Quant... It is like calling yourself SuperMan. You named your dog Chucky not you. I actually think this season proves very little. I am on the verge... of producing a viable product. This season in conjuction with last several means something. I am so close.

"viable product"

Bro hit 39% last year. Who the f\*\*k is buying that?

A Quant · 08-28-24, 08:44 PM

And for those of you late------

I am sticking my foot up his ass for a few reasons--- One is the insane amount of delusional DMs he sent me last year.

Two-- His admission in another thread that he is aiming to starting selling his picks for $5.99.

I hate touts. And he just referred to his work as a "product", which, obviously is aimed at touting.

Last year--- he would pull off the old Wayne Root special--- "I am 4-1 my last 5 picks" while ignoring the fact that he was 21-35 during the rest of the season. Tune in-- he can't help himself. He lose games and explain how "close he was to having a big weekend", and he had the right side but the games "Didn't go his way". He'll make insane claims like he is the only "service" to predict game scores-- meanwhile, NC Sports has been doing it for 30 years, as does Mark Lawrence, the Sports Reporters, and anyone else selling picks.

My aim in this contest is simple. To show everyone thinking of buying his picks that he couldn't pick a winner if someone gave it to him.

A Quant · 08-28-24, 08:49 PM

For the record-- I am not going to give him any excuses--- because if I jump out early he'll claim I had a head start later. So, I guess this will begin Week 4.

ChuckyTheGoat · 08-28-24, 09:11 PM

Good Luck, quant. Hope both of you guys turn a profit.

unde0087 · 08-28-24, 09:43 PM

So you make a thread to announce you two can't figure out who's dick is bigger and no one is going to post a play in a plays contest? This ought to be good 2k posts combined in about 20 years of service. I was wondering why I have never even heard of this usma guy.

mjsuax13 · 08-29-24, 01:30 AM

Looking forward to week 4. Do we need an official SBR tracker?

JAKEPEAVY21 · 08-29-24, 07:51 AM

A Quant is a long time poster, long term winning ncaaf bettor and good guy in my experience.

usma-Do not think he is a tout but seems delusional about his betting systems and acts like a child whenever anyone doesn't blow smoke up his rear in his threads.

My guess is that A Quant will be the winner here...gl this season fellas

A Quant · 08-29-24, 09:25 AM

Originally posted by unde0087

So you make a thread to announce you two can't figure out who's dick is bigger and no one is going to post a play in a plays contest? This ought to be good 2k posts combined in about 20 years of service. I was wondering why I have never even heard of this usma guy.

Unde--- I completely agree, and I am the moron who suggested the contest.

I don't understand why he is waiting to week 4---

But know this-- as I am the moron who drummed up all this drama, I fully recognize that creating the thread 4 weeks before anyone posts a single game adds a level of stooooooopid to it.

A Quant · 08-29-24, 09:28 AM

And I DO NOT consider myself some betting genius.

I suck some weeks, I am good some weeks.

I make no excuses, and I always welcome anyone telling me my picks are awful. I love the interaction. I had a few guys in my thread last few years who would point out to me where I may be wrong, and I changed a bet or two, and turns out--- they were right.

Good luck to everyone, and let me apologize for gunking up the board with this, but it has to be done.

JAKEPEAVY21 · 08-29-24, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by A Quant

Unde--- I completely agree, and I am the moron who suggested the contest.

I don't understand why he is waiting to week 4---

But know this-- as I am the moron who drummed up all this drama, I fully recognize that creating the thread 4 weeks before anyone posts a single game adds a level of stooooooopid to it.

His system/s probably need the data from the first few weeks is my guess?

A Quant · 08-29-24, 01:12 PM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

His system/s probably need the data from the first few weeks is my guess?

Agree---- but one thing about college football is the variability of scheduling.

Some P65 schools play some awful teams in the first 3 weeks, others play some good games---

Big difference is SOS between say, Louisville and Texas.

usma1992 · 08-30-24, 03:25 AM

First of all, I should apologize. No insults should be made, I'm better than that.

I've been told too many times... it can't be done. I'm not smart enough. Last season, I did it with college basketball for 2 months straight. I believe I have one program that works... I got two in the hopper.

Here is what I don't get. My college basketball flat out worked. It was predicting games within points of the actual total... which is much harder to do than football. I didn't run it for a day or a week... I ran it two months straight and had a huge following. My take... is those that can't do... critique.

I just did it once. If I can do it once... I can do it a second time... If I lose and A Quant rubs it in my nose... rightfully so... I will make my model better. If I win on top of basketball winning... I will know that I have created something worthwhile.

Again, despite anything that any one says... I could care less about the money. Could I use more money, of course... But I want to see if I can take down Vegas at their own game. It is the same reason... I lived in an RV in the middle of Alaska at -50 below.

Well, we are about to see. A Quant... you can start betting any time you want. I won't hold over your head if you bet early.

Do your thing...

Yes... I need the first three weeks to collect data. I will do the same thing in the NFL. I will also do the same thing in college basketball.

If you kick my ass that means I have more work to do. If you don't... I will still keep working.

A Quant... I agree about SOS... but my program plays Vegas against themselves. I guess we will see if it works.

DO ME ONE FAVOR... BRING YOUR A GAME...

Dave
Mack the Teach

usma1992 · 08-30-24, 04:08 AM

Fair

usma1992 · 09-07-24, 03:15 PM

I will now create my own thread for this competition so there is no confusion of whose picks are whose etc. I will post my picks from Sept 1 to Mar 1... 180 Competition... I will post NCAAF... NFL and NCAAB... A Quant you are more than welcome to join me on this journey and start your own thread. I trust you will be honorable. A Quant our personal wager of $300 to a charity of choice is good.

I feel comfortable. Let's Roll.

Dave
Mack the Teach

Headsterx · 09-07-24, 03:20 PM

Just give us some winners!

usma1992 · 09-07-24, 03:27 PM

In my lifetime ... there are people that preach and people that do... if you can't figure out the difference you eventually wll.

Dave
Mack the Teach

Headsterx · 09-07-24, 03:29 PM

Did I just wander into a cult? 🤣

usma1992 · 09-08-24, 08:02 AM

Not yet... but my system... did just predict Northern Illinois to beat Notre Dame by 2... and they won by 2... check the tape.

Dave
Mack the Teach

astrobloke · 09-08-24, 08:32 AM

I'm listening

johnnyvegas13 · 09-08-24, 08:40 AM

Originally posted by Headsterx

Did I just wander into a cult? 藍

Ya sbr forum …

A Quant · 09-17-24, 12:30 PM

For the sake of this contest---

And to be honest-- I have no penetrating clue what this moron even agreed to, he refused every question I had.

So--- pardon me, and the board-- but I will list my selections in this thread.

I am just betting 1 unit per game--- so, I hope the meatball does the same.

For those of you following along-- I will list my selections along with what he posted in his thread.

And keep a running tally right here.

A Quant · 09-17-24, 12:39 PM

I have...

Toledo (-2.5) over Western Kentucky
USC (-5.5) over Michigan
Florida Atlantic (+2.5) over Connecticut
Boston College (-6.5) over Michigan State
California (+2.5) over Florida State
Jacksonville State (-6.5) over Southern Miss

Thanks for watching this shit show everyone.

usma1992 · 09-17-24, 06:41 PM

Each bet will count one unit. I will be posting 3 star versus 5 star for the people that prefer that. I am starting both this weekend and have already posted all my NFL games and NCAAF games. It might be a week early... but I will deal with it. We will count OT as you wish... for the competition. However, for my modelling I will not. Good Luck. Almost had a computer glitch which would have been ugly. I am excited to see what my models can do.

Pretty sure you are around 6-10 so far in college football... that type of record might beat me... but I doubt it.

Dave
Mack the Teach

usma1992 · 09-19-24, 05:53 PM

A Quant looked at your bets... for Saturday..

Toledo game I have it Toledo 30 WKY 24... but -2.5 you are within a 3.5 window. Too close for me.
USC game I have it USC 32 Michigan 7... my system agrees but there is matchup issue that it doesn't like
Florida Atlantic game I have it FAU 24 UCONN 25... -2.5... again too close for me.
Boston College game I have it 15-12... this is where we differ... I have Michigan St winning outright but again too close for me.
California game Cali 23 FSU 4... my system agrees but there is a matchup issue it doesn't like

Only bet we are opposite on is Jacksonville State-6.5 vs. Southern Miss.

You are going to thank me in the end.

GL

Dave
Mack the Teach

A Quant · 09-22-24, 12:13 PM

Dave had a solid week, I got crushed.

I am posting these now because I am off on a cruise til next Saturday.

I will update accordingly.

I know I am -4.5 units.

Anyway, see everyone Saturday.

Here are my picks if I don't get a chance to sign on.

Oklahoma State +3 over Kansas State
Arkansas +5.5 over Texas A&M
Nebraska -10 over Purdue
Navy -3 over UAB
Notre Dame -4.5 over Louisville
Duke -3 over North Carolina
Georgia -2.5 over Alabama

usma1992 · 09-22-24, 06:37 PM

First weekend of competition... done. I will be NFL next weekend along with college. Here is what is frustrating to me about you and this competition. If I had gotten crushed you would have posted my exact wins and losses and your wins and losses. When it doesn't go your way... you don't post the numbers. I believe that I am doing the best I can to produce a viable model. This competition will make me better. I will post my NCAAF shortly.

USMA1992

14-9 +5 Units

AQuant

1-5 -4 Units

Long season, so I will reserve any comments until later but that is a 9 unit swing between the two of us in Week 1.

Dave
Mack the Teach

usma1992 · 09-29-24, 09:32 AM

On the weekend... I was 8-6 up 2 units... I have you at 4-3 up 1 unit. I threw out the UNLV game unfortunately... and I would do it again because I don't like backup qbs in college.

I lost two game unders in the last two minutes yesterday.

USMA1992
22-15 +7 Units

A Quant
5-8 -3 Units

Up 10 Units in two weeks. Except I lost NFL Thursday night. Haven't seen his picks for the NFL yet.

Dave
Mack the Teach

JAKEPEAVY21 · 09-29-24, 10:11 AM

Unless I'm missing something, what kind of contest is this where one entrant is making almost 3x the amount of bets as the other?

usma1992 · 09-29-24, 10:25 AM

Jake,

You aren't missing anything. Certain parties didn't think this contest/bet through enough. I have to maintain around a 53% to his 66% or higher based on a unit contest. He should have made it a percentage bet rather than a unit bet. However, the whole premise is that I can't do it the way I am doing it.

My hypothesis is that I can spread my bets over multiple games diversifying my risk and still win consistently. So whether you agree with me or not is up to you. The current sentiment is that what I am doing is impossible. Everyone has always said you need to find the edge and just bet those games. I am not doing that. Well, I guess I am doing that but with wider filters.

You think I have edge now. Wait until college basketball. I can run my program in less than 5 minutes for each sport. My college basketball program has already been successful. Come Thanksgiving, I will be running 3 programs in less than 30 minutes. A Quant will be trying to look through 100+ games just in college basketball on a Saturday. I wish him luck.

Dave
MacktheTeach

Does it matter? I am still hitting around 60% and he isn't hitting 50%.

JAKEPEAVY21 · 09-29-24, 10:45 AM

Dave, appreciate the response but seems kind of pointless unless you both are making the same amount of selections each week....just my .02 good luck to you both.

usma1992 · 09-29-24, 10:52 AM

I appreciate your opinion... but it isn't pointless. I am trying to demonstrate that you can diversify your bets like a mutual fund and still be successful against Vegas. You can take away a big risk and still win.

This contest... probably is pointless.

Dave
Mack the Teach

A Quant · 10-01-24, 07:12 AM

Standings update.

Dave is at 25-23, -.3.

I sit at 5-8, -3.8 units.

Both of us are negative.