(2024 Olympics) Men's BASK - Notes/Plays

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Should have some opinions. Researching/studying up on teams.

Should be some opportunities.

[SomeDayinBuffalo]

Looking fwd to the games also. Should be some good bets to make on a lot of the Olympic games.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball_at_the_2024_Summer_Olympics_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_tournament

[Eddy Munny]

USA squeaked by the Select team today 74-73.

All that HOF NBA talent and they're fighting tooth and nail to edge an amateur squad.

C'mon Corky, I mean Chucky, update your own damn thread.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Games start on 7/27. Good Luck, everyone.

[Eddy Munny]

Corky only posted just now because he doesn't want "Eddy Munny" to be the most recent.

Now he'll be eager to do so again, but probably try and be a little more cagey about it since I called it out.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Will start some team previews as we get closer to 7/27. One outstanding Q that I haven't seen confirmed yet:

*Jokic IN or OUT for Serbia?

[Eddy Munny]

Okay, so he's not even trying to be subtle.

He just really doesn't want to give me any spotlight and will bump with any redundant mess he can muster lol.

[SomeDayinBuffalo]

I hope he does. That would make a cool match up. I would not take anything away from the game against the kids. I'm glad they have five games before it counts.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Friendly today. First observation: *The books are gutless on these games.

30- to 40-cent lines. Gutless oddsmakers, juiced to the moon.

[asiagambler]

[Eddy Munny]

Friendly today. First observation: *The books are gutless on these games.

30- to 40-cent lines. Gutless oddsmakers, juiced to the moon.

Maybe so, but their objective is to make money, not impress you with their "courageous" lines.

If they're too far out in left field, then they'll get eaten up by competitors with more consumer friendly options. The market finds its level.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

First play: 1* Serbia +12.5 1.91 (vs USA): 1 to win .91

...Think this is fair value if Jokic skips.
...If Jokic suits up, I expect this # to dip five points. In which cases this # would be great value.

[JIBBBY]

I'm looking forward to these Summer Olympics. Love the track and field events!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Honest (but Dumb) Question: *Is the USA/Canada game on TV?

...I hardly ever watch TV anymore.

[Eddy Munny]

Honest (but Dumb) Question: *Is the USA/Canada game on TV?

...I hardly ever watch TV anymore.

I don't think that's any of your damn business.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

First play: 1* Serbia +12.5 1.91 (vs USA): 1 to win .91

...Think this is fair value if Jokic skips.
...If Jokic suits up, I expect this # to dip five points. In which cases this # would be great value.

Adding two units: 2* Serbia +14.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82.

...I don't get this #. And I'm willing to risk it.
...Information getting clearer. Jokic played yesterday for Serbia. They beat France.
...Also notable that Bogdanovic played for Serbia. Not that he's great, but he's another NBA player.
...I thought Bogdanovic would miss for sure, as he had to exit the Knicks with an injury. He must think the Olympics are important, b/c I thought he was scheduled for surgery.

[asiagambler]

Cucky doesn't realize there's two different Bogdanovics and Bojan isn't even Serbian

[Eddy Munny]

Cucky doesn't realize there's two different Bogdanovics and Bojan isn't even Serbian

Unreal. Chuckbot needs a software upgrade

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Adding two units: 2* Serbia +14.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82.

...I don't get this #. And I'm willing to risk it.
...Information getting clearer. Jokic played yesterday for Serbia. They beat France.
...Also notable that Bogdanovic played for Serbia. Not that he's great, but he's another NBA player.
...I thought Bogdanovic would miss for sure, as he had to exit the Knicks with an injury. He must think the Olympics are important, b/c I thought he was scheduled for surgery.

Have to admit I got a fact wrong (above). Wrong Bogdanovic:

*The Bogdanovic from the Knicks = Bojan. He's a Croat.

*The Serbian Bogdanovic = Bogdan. Plays for the ATL Hawks.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

As for your comment, fuk off. Where is your track record of plays?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This Bogdanovic is actually pretty good. I'll take him over the guy from the Knicks:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bogdabo01.html#all_per_poss-playoffs_per_poss

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One more pro-Serbia angle to support my play:
*Serbia actually finished 2nd in the 2023 FIBA without Jokic. SERB beat Canada in the Semi-Finals last year.
...Add the best player in the world. How can that be a bad thing?

*I'm not convinced that this USA roster is decidedly better than the 2023 USA roster.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

3* Germany -16.5 1.91 (vs Japan): 3 to win 2.73.

...I like the German front line. Multiple NBA players. Lot of big bodies.
...Feel like the # should be higher. Willing to lay this price.

[ARCHIVADO98]

I'm looking forward to these Summer Olympics. Love the track and field events!

Can you bet on Track and Field?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Can you bet on Track and Field?

Hi, Arch. I think my answer is YES.*

*One asterisk: My experience is that the Pool bets are over-rounded way too much.
...In other words, if you're looking to bet a one-man WINNER in the Pool, they will short the Odds heavily.

Some guys do pick out a Winner they like. Look around, see if you find favorable Odds.
...Not saying that it can't be done. Just that the Pool odds often look recreational.

Good Luck, if you try any.

PS: Any play you have in mind?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Arch, follow-up to your question:

*I see that Heritage now has many Olympic bets up. They are the Pool-type bets, pick one Winner.

...These are very tough bets. You might know the sport better than the oddsmaker. But they cover themselves by creating pool of 140%+.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Example of what I mean. I see a Swimming event.

Prices for the first six athletes:
2.25
2.9
3.5
9.5
13
21
...Convert those Decimal odds to probabilities. We're already at 130% on the first six.

Good Luck finding a good price. The House is building in some fat juice on these lines.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Adding two units: 2* Serbia +14.5 1.91: 2 to win 1.82.

...I don't get this #. And I'm willing to risk it.
...Information getting clearer. Jokic played yesterday for Serbia. They beat France.
...Also notable that Bogdanovic played for Serbia. Not that he's great, but he's another NBA player.
...I thought Bogdanovic would miss for sure, as he had to exit the Knicks with an injury. He must think the Olympics are important, b/c I thought he was scheduled for surgery.

4th unit on Serbia +14.5 1.93: 1 to win .93.

[SomeDayinBuffalo]

Let's see what they have today

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Let's see what they have today

They look pretty good today. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

I will put one asterisk on Australia. *I can't believe they're still playing Mills.

[SomeDayinBuffalo]

They look pretty good today. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

I will put one asterisk on Australia. *I can't believe they're still playing Mills.

Mills!?...I think I saw Dellavedova lol

[SomeDayinBuffalo]

Team USA problem is they need to get use to each other. They are all top dogs. That's hard. In the NBA they don't press. This is more like a collage game. With only 5 fouls they can't give up that lazy one or two for some. Will the players listen to Kerr? Coach K had more pull. I think we will get to the medal rd for sure. The teams that they play now are a lot more talented. Should be fun ride

[Lex_icon]

Nikola Jovic is set to miss the Olympic Games, as he has not fully recovered from his ankle injury.

he plays in the Miami Heat.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Mills!?...I think I saw Dellavedova lol

Yes! Mills is older. And Delladova is amazingly still on the team, too.

This isn't the BEST Australia team I've seen. But they're pretty good.