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Early voting and new registration looking good for Kamala in MI and moved the market. All comes down to PA.Comment -
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cry...-my-intent-is-Trump Polymarket Whale Has $30M Bet On Former President Winning 2024 Election: 'My Intent Is Just Making Money'
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Came across this. There is a lot of wash trading going on. It doesn't move the market price. It makes it look like there's more volume.
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What's the odds on a tie?Comment -
The post above is from October 29th. I had a feeling these Lines weren't stable/sharp. This is what they look like now. Look how much that Trump Line has moved in just 4 days.This is interesting to me...
This is at BetOnline btw. At the moment, KH is favored at BO in only 20 States(they are not counting DC in the above wager). Trump is favored in 30 States... but the odds are giving him only a 42.48% chance of winning more than 29.5.
There is definitely money to be made here somewhere...
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Spoken like a true democrat galt
You also said trump will get worse/higher odds and we should bet kamala after election nightComment -
I'm still waiting for someone to tell me why an ID isn't requiredComment -
No, I said you should bet on Kamala ON election night(likely very late in the evening on Tuesday, November 5th). I posted this multiple times. I should have been clearer for you Trumpers.
If you think I am contradicting myself in ANY way, please quote ANY of my posts, and tell me where I am contradicting myself. Otherwise, you're just making shit up(like Trump does).Comment -
Any of you Trumpers ever watch the show "Penn & Teller: Fool Us"? If not, you should watch it sometime. You may just figure out that "The bloom on the rose is oft not wet." Here's a little secret, some things are merely illusions and AREN'T REAL. I'm going to give you a short lesson on illusions. This may even help you win some money on Election night. Sadly, it's unlikely that I will reach very many Trump supporters with this lesson. And because of this, if Harris should happen to win, there will almost certainly be millions(perhaps billions) of dollars of damage done, as well as violence and likely death. All because of Trump's supporters poor understanding of The Red Mirage. Here's how it works:
The "red mirage" refers to a phenomenon that can occur on election night where initial results appear to heavily favor Republican candidates, creating an impression that they are winning by a wide margin. However, as more votes are counted, especially mail-in and absentee ballots, the results may shift in favor of Democratic candidates. This shift happens because different types of ballots are counted at different times, and each type tends to favor certain voting blocs.
How the Red Mirage Works
- In-Person Voting vs. Mail-In Voting: In many elections, especially in recent years, Republicans have tended to vote more in person, while Democrats are more likely to vote by mail. Since in-person votes are typically counted first, initial results can show a higher percentage of Republican votes.
- Early Counting of In-Person Ballots: On election night, in-person votes (cast at polling stations) are often counted and reported more quickly than mail-in ballots. This creates an early "mirage" of stronger Republican results, as these in-person ballots lean more conservative.
- Mail-In and Absentee Ballot Counting: Mail-in ballots, which lean Democratic, are often counted after in-person votes. In some states, election officials are not allowed to begin counting mail-in votes until Election Day, causing these ballots to be reported later. As these votes are added to the tally, the initial Republican lead can shrink, and Democratic candidates may gain ground or even overtake the initial lead.
- Impact of State Laws: Each state has its own rules about when and how mail-in ballots are processed and counted. States that begin counting mail-in ballots before Election Day may have less of a red mirage, while states that only begin processing on Election Day see more dramatic shifts as late-arriving ballots are processed.
This "mirage" effect can lead to confusion or even mistrust, as the apparent shift can make it look like results are changing or being manipulated. However, it’s simply the result of different counting methods and timing. The red mirage has become more pronounced as mail-in voting has increased in popularity, especially since 2020.
Make sense?Last edited by JohnGalt2341; 11-02-24, 03:11 PM.Comment -
I suppose it's because not everyone has ID(people often lose their ID as well), AND they rarely ever find instances of people trying to vote who pretend to be someone they are not. The risks are far too great, just to vote. You may find a few here and there, but they are few and far between.
In your opinion, in 2020, approximately how many votes do you think were made illegally... because of lack of voter ID?Comment -
Because it's not needed to ensure election integrity and is simply an impediment to voting.
"Why not require it" isn't a good argument for it.
Do you have any good argument for it? Bearing in mind most places across the world have not required it in hundreds of years of elections and don't see a need to demand it.
Proof all over the world as well as in USA history that this issue is red herring..Comment -
Current price at BetOnline:
Let me make sure I have this right... So... even though Harris is now a FAVORITE in PA at some betting markets... the ONLY way she can win PA is if the Dems cheat?? Is this correct??
Makes perfect sense.
On an unrelated note, the other night I heard a Broncos fan say... "The only way Baltimore beats Denver on Sunday is if the game is fixed."
I believe him too!Comment -
I'm glad we have voter id in Canada. I sure don't want people who can't provide Id to vote in elections.
You mentioned hundreds of years of elections as if the world isn't a changed place with mass migration all over first world nations.
Common sense is not required to vote but ID should be for sure. USA is a joke compared to other western nations.Comment -
You still comparing a dozen NFL games on a Sunday that have no consequence to the control of a nation as powerful as the USA to the election that happens once every 4 years?Current price at BetOnline:
Let me make sure I have this right... So... even though Harris is now a FAVORITE in PA at some betting markets... the ONLY way she can win PA is if the Dems cheat?? Is this correct??
Makes perfect sense.
On an unrelated note, the other night I heard a Broncos fan say... "The only way Baltimore beats Denver on Sunday is if the game is fixed."
I believe him too!
Seriously Galt? I also saw you say were not a democrat according to yourself. Hard to convince me but I guess you believe yourself.Comment -
Most sports fans are unbelievably biased when it comes to their favorite teams and/or players. In MMA/Boxing, whenever there is a split decision, most fans ALMOST ALWAYS think their favorite fighter won, OR if they bet on that figther, they usually think they won as well. Politics are even worse. Most sports fans I know, almost always overestimate how well their favorite team is going to do at the beginning of the season. Football games are not a great example I will admit, but it's not much different. The main difference with football is, it's just harder to argue that it's rigged. But people still do it. In politics, people can just say... "No way could he have lost, therefore it must be rigged." And when they have someone they worhip reinforcing these beliefs because they don't understand how votes are counted, it's a recipe for disaster.
Of the 62 lawsuits Trump filed for the 2020 election, how many did he win? How many Republican judges(some even appointed by Trump himself) told him he has no case? All of them. Until Trump, or you, or anyone else can show even SOME evidence of any kind of rigging, I will remain skeptical.
You do know Trump is a pathological liar don't you? He's also a conman. Perhaps you don't know it. Someday it will be obvious.
Btw, I'm not a Democrat, I'm just anti-Trump. There is a HUGE difference.Comment -
You spew the same talking points the MSM does. It works for some but not for me. Biden says Trump supporters are garbage. You know that right? You want an apostrophe?
I certainly never mentioned rigging but the USA elections are very dubious. It's all by design. I'm NOT concerned whether Trump is this or that. You are. Harris is part of the worst administration in the last 40 years. They lie about everything and the media runs overtime to protect them. The world is not what it was in 2008. People have many avenues to see what's going on.
Go listen to fetterman on what is going on in Pennsylvania.Last edited by lakerboy; 11-02-24, 11:47 PM.Comment -
It seems you are voting on emotion rather than logic. The real rigging is occurring by the lies of the media. If Kamala wins, censorship will increase and wars will continue to be funded causing inflation.
Getting back to the voting, I really like Trump in Nevada right now. I'm not a conspiracy theorist but if there is some funny business, it'll be with mail in voting in Pennsylvania.
Last edited by raiders72001; 11-03-24, 01:35 AM.Comment -
Agree, would be tough to survive without a govt ID in this world.
And honestly, I probably would not have much time for the sort of person who would refuse to have one.
But we still should be free to choose as we wish. Even in most other people think you're wacko for the choice.
I was actually thinking of Canada when I made the comment. I thought you were the same as here. Just had names crossed off from an electoral roll when you entered the voting place. I stand corrected.
Who collects this ID? Do they copy it or just look at it to verify you are who you say you are?
Does it slow down the voting process much?
The reason an ID is not required here is that it is redundant in preventing multiple votes as each name on the roll can only vote once so it does not help to stop that. And in places where ID was required, like Indonesia, they found that it actually encouraged more fraud attempts and dropped it.
Plus it's just seen as an extra impediment to getting the most people to vote as possible.
You're being fed a red herring with this ID stuff.Last edited by Optional; 11-03-24, 06:48 AM..Comment -
Indonesia? Have you read about all the bribery in their elections?
The only reason some places don't require ID is because they are either ok with election fraud if it happens ("oh ya we know there are people who aren't supposed be able to vote, but its not that many so who cares? Also, it's racist.") or they are in on it themselves.Comment -
Corrupt or not, there was apparently more fraud potential enabled by the extra ID step.
Just like the USA Australia has an election commission that spends a lot of time verifying the counts and results for integrity. Once the results are ratified and cant be changed they do it.
And just like USA, there has been no evidence of significant voter fraud ever uncovered from those counts..Comment -
yes there was actually a I have already posted many times.
The real question is, do you think its ok for just anyone can walk up to voting booth, without any identification whatsoever to prove who they are, and vote?
While we are it, if you would be so kind. Do you think its ok for just anyone get on an airplane (domestic or international) and fly without any identification? What about driving a car? What about opening a bank account let's say? Apply for a loan or credit card? Buy a house?Last edited by DwightShrute; 11-03-24, 08:10 AM.Comment -
Obviously yes I do.
I am pretty sure that's how it works in the majority of countries and, as far as I am aware, it works fine in all (most?).
And the integrity count I am talking about comes way after results are ratified. I wish I could recall the name of who does it there, but the first time i recall hearing about was when the Florida integrity check showed that GW Bush really did beat Al Gore..Comment -
I cannot speak for all states but you receive a registration card well before election day where I live. Show that and that's it.
And I know, what if it's stolen? Well, that means the dumb ass that lost it cannot vote and the clown that found it might try. Simple fix. Don't lose it. It's really not that hard.Comment
