MLB dogs aren't winning

[lakerboy]

This year has been awful for dogs.

[stevenash]

Pick your spots LB.

I'm not saying my approach is the right way or wrong way to go about betting MLB, but I stick with what works for me, which is focus on pitching, I seek out spots where I can get + money on a dog in a game I perceive as pick 'em.

I'm still all about pitching, and value.
You've been reading my MLB content here for how long now?

I remember talking to you about the KC Royals on these here very boards back in 2014, nine years ago.
The only things that have changed in the past ten years are some of the rules, what hasn't changed is pitching usually wins, always has, always will, (I said usually, nothing is guaranteed) which is why I focus on the pitching first, then value and everything else second)

I've been sleeping, eating, and shitting MLB since I was eight years ago, all those years of watching and learning and playing the game, from behind home plate yet, I can't begin to tell you how many times poor teams that start a quality pitcher have beat good teams starting a game with a poor starter, at plus money to boot.

My approach is my approach, it is what it is, it works for me.

In real estate it's all about location, to me, in baseball, it's all about the pitching.

I'm not very good at making long stories short, I need to do family things today, I'll finish my thoughts here later this afternoon, the simple and obvious answer is the dogs aren't barking as frequent so far is the league has become even more top heavy with talent, there's even a wider gap between the haves and have nots, the dogs are still out there, the trick is finding those spots.

I have to do this brunch thing with the in laws, I'll be back later.

[stevenash]

I linked this thread to the baseball sub forum for you as well, you'll get more views and response this way being both in PT and MLB foums.

Later dude, and before you ask, I don't see anything really worth betting today.

[Machba]

Oak today +158 det +156 should at least split and go 1-1

[goduke]

This year has been awful for dogs.

They’ll start coming through once nba and nhl action dies down. It’s weirdly coincidental

[Thor4140]

This year has been awful for dogs.

it is the same every year until the nba and nhl playoffs are almost over or over

[stevenash]

it is the same every year until the nba and nhl playoffs are almost over or over

Yes.
That and the bats tend to heat up in june as well.

I was always taught to wait three rotation starts before you start betting pitching, or until the end of April / beginning of May.

[veriableodds]

Agree with the pitching part, but even with that much better era-vs-opponent , its only trustable somewhere between 50%-60% of the time

[veriableodds]

most of those situation's are not going to give much payout even if its a plus line

[Jowframs]

It will get worse
after Hockey/Nba
is over
Favs all day run-lines

[Jowframs]

They’ll start coming through once nba and nhl action dies down. It’s weirdly coincidental

Nope

[Machba]

oak today +158 det +156 should at least split and go 1-1

puffpuffpass

[stevenash]

If you are flat betting 100 dollars a game, every game on the money line the only sub .500 team showing a profit are the Detroit Tigers.
They are three under .500, betting them every game though you're up a little over 7* (+734)
Funny thing about the Tigers, they've pretty much sucked in recent years, but always seem to be around .even or plus money at the end of the season, Detroit has a knack of winning games at around +180 or better.

Every team in the AL East is over .500, and every team in the AL East is turning a profit based on the criteria I stated above for the Tigers EXCEPT for the Yankees.

There's a reason why "Buzzy The Bookie" taught me years ago to try to stay away from the 'name brands' like the Yankees, Cowboys, ND football for instance, the public loves the name brands, books know this and will inflate their lines.

And, not for nothing.
Your three biggest money burners in MLB to date, and they are destroying your bankrolls, are the Oakland A's, KC Royals, and the White Sox.

Oakland is -17.5 *
Chi and KC is -13.5 * each.

[Jowframs]

Thanx for the info!

[stevenash]

^
Glad to help

[johnnyvegas13]

Thai prob mean that they eventually will

is this related to the time clock at all ???

[stevex]

First three MLB games of the night go to the favs. This has to turn around at some point.

[lakerboy]

Huge night for dogs. Finally

[veriableodds]

Huge night for dogs. Finally

Just blind betting dogs over a season you would only lose mabye 16u . Imagine teams that should not be dogs(bias) but are. St8 up dogs thus far 41.9% win rate

[stevenash]

Just blind betting dogs over a season you would only lose mabye 16u . Imagine teams that should not be dogs(bias) but are. St8 up dogs thus far 41.9% win rate

You're facts and figures in the past have been pretty much solid gold, so I'm not going to bother to research the 41.9 figure quoted, that would make the magic number around +150.

+150 implies a 40 percent win probability, conversely a 60 percent lose probability.

Simple math tells you if you bet 10 games, all at +150, four out of ten wins would bring in 600, and the six losses would be a net loss of 600, thus the break even point at+150 is four out of ten.

I still maintain spot betting dogs versus blind betting dogs in volume is the way to go.
Volume dog bettors that don't put n the work is equivalent to a blind squirrel throwing darts.
40 percent is obtainable picking and choosing the proper spots.

[tailin junkie]

dogs 5-1 yesterday

[veriableodds]

You're facts and figures in the past have been pretty much solid gold, so I'm not going to bother to research the 41.9 figure quoted, that would make the magic number around +150.

+150 implies a 40 percent win probability, conversely a 60 percent lose probability.

Simple math tells you if you bet 10 games, all at +150, four out of ten wins would bring in 600, and the six losses would be a net loss of 600, thus the break even point at+150 is four out of ten.

I still maintain spot betting dogs versus blind betting dogs in volume is the way to go.
Volume dog bettors that don't put n the work is equivalent to a blind squirrel throwing darts.
40 percent is obtainable picking and choosing the proper spots.

the season thing I remember I asked LT.. The 41.9 is this years str8 up to that point using covers stats in league trends

[veriableodds]

spot betting/bias dogs are most certainly the way to go. Especially if its +ev higher than 105% mark

[pavyracer]

dogs are winning now. books have adjusted lines in our favor.

[stevenash]

the season thing I remember I asked LT.. The 41.9 is this years str8 up to that point using covers stats in league trends

The 41.9 number is usually around the norm.

I think around late May and into the summer the opportunity for live dogs is greater.
My approach is seek out starters with live arms that pitch for sub .500 teams, getting + money.

[lakerboy]

dogs are winning now. books have adjusted lines in our favor.

Lol go look at the scoreboard

[stevex]

Unreal.

[stevenash]

Houston -310 is in a dog fight with Oakland
2-2 8th.
Overall, the dogs ain't barking today either.

[tailin junkie]

To my surprise, after reviewing my numbers from last year, dogs are slightly up from last season. When I say ‘my numbers’, there could be a slight variation from what you may see elsewhere or have in your own records.

[stevex]

If you count the two late night MLB games last night, has a dog won a game in the past 24 hours? Chalk has owned every Thursday and Friday in every sport for the past two years. Someone look up the stats.

[stevenash]

If you count the two late night MLB games last night, has a dog won a game in the past 24 hours? Chalk has owned every Thursday and Friday in every sport for the past two years. Someone look up the stats.

I'll have time tomorrow to look those numbers up.
I'm curious now.

[lakerboy]

If you count the two late night MLB games last night, has a dog won a game in the past 24 hours? Chalk has owned every Thursday and Friday in every sport for the past two years. Someone look up the stats.

Your getting picky now. Dogs killed it yesterday they won 9 and lost 5. They have been winning ALOT since the weekend.

[stevenash]

Your getting picky now. Dogs killed it yesterday they won 9 and lost 5. They have been winning ALOT since the weekend.

Yeah.

I'm going to analyze those numbers.
Dogs have been barking lately.

Like I said, I'm curious too.

[goduke]

They’ll start coming through once nba and nhl action dies down. It’s weirdly coincidental

Dogs winning more now? lol i wonder why

[veriableodds]

Dogs str8 up in any situation as in home/away 42.2% wr