Chime in please: Good bet or bad bet?

**Nate rasta** · 12-13-22, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

Messi!

Damn, I passed on this prop.

Oh man

**stevenash** · 12-13-22, 02:38 PM

*my bad*

**Thrilla** · 12-13-22, 02:38 PM

Nasher likes Nasher likes

**JayLA** · 12-13-22, 02:40 PM

Let"s fcking gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo o

**stevenash** · 12-13-22, 02:40 PM

Argentina isn't going to be denied.

**stevenash** · 12-13-22, 02:41 PM

Originally posted by Thrilla

Nasher likes Nasher likes

I do have Argentina straight up, I don't think I posted that earlier.
Small bet, just 22/20

**JayLA** · 12-13-22, 02:42 PM

I'm FIRED THE FK UP!!!!!!!!!!!

**Thrilla** · 12-13-22, 02:44 PM

Nasher knows

**pologq** · 12-13-22, 02:47 PM

i am glad you have argentina nash. sorry i thought you ended up taking it.

gun to my head before the match i would not have taken it.

**Thrilla** · 12-13-22, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

I do have Argentina straight up, I don't think I posted that earlier.
Small bet, just 22/20

Signed by your pal Nasher

**TommieGunshot** · 12-13-22, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by semibluff

Messi to score at any time is quoted at +165 on another comparison site. That equates to 37.2%. Given the book price on this market the true probability is likely around 32%.

Circa had the No for -180 all day. At 32% chance of scoring, that would be a 5.8% edge. Highly doubtful that’s the correct probability when they we’re letting people bet it for as much as they could ever want.

**semibluff** · 12-13-22, 09:02 PM

Originally posted by TommieGunshot

Circa had the No for -180 all day. At 32% chance of scoring, that would be a 5.8% edge. Highly doubtful that’s the correct probability when they we’re letting people bet it for as much as they could ever want.

Perfectly good point. I simply looked on oddschecker at their match bulletin points and Messi anytime was 32/19. I didn't check to see who offered those odds, (which could have been wrong), or what price was offered about NO, (mainly because the match was starting in 5 minutes). Prop bets normally have a much higher vig level than normal 2 outcome bets. My bad if the line was -180, +165. However, I was fairly kind on a possible 32% breakdown. A loss might have been more than 4% and a draw 7%. Maybe on a 36% probability Argentina winning was a 23% or 23.5% chance. Either way congrats to stevenash on the win.

**unde0087** · 12-13-22, 10:31 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

Argentina isn't going to be denied.

**JayLA** · 12-13-22, 10:46 PM

my book was offering Croatia win / draw + btts at odds boost.

I think we can all agree that we should not believe any "boost" the book offers.

**Thrilla** · 12-14-22, 09:25 AM

Your pal nasher