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Nadal:
Federer:Last 52 40-7 (85%) 10-8 (56%) 4.5% 66.4% 72.4% 60.1% 87.2% 68.2% 32.6% 41.7% 54.6% 1.31 Hard 21-3 (88%) 9-5 (64%) 5.5% 64.6% 74.6% 58.9% 87.4% 69.0% 29.7% 40.2% 54.1% 1.30 Clay 14-3 (82%) 1-1 (50%) 2.4% 67.8% 69.0% 59.9% 84.2% 66.1% 42.5% 46.3% 55.9% 1.37 Grass 5-1 (83%) 0-2 (0%) 4.8% 68.8% 71.6% 63.9% 91.2% 69.2% 26.6% 38.8% 54.2% 1.26 Grand Slams 16-3 (84%) 4-5 (44%) 5.2% 68.0% 73.1% 59.6% 88.1% 68.8% 28.4% 39.5% 53.9% 1.26 vs Top 10 5-4 (56%) 1-3 (25%) 2.3% 68.1% 66.7% 55.4% 78.7% 63.1% 19.7% 35.8% 49.6% 0.97 vs Righties 36-7 (84%) 9-8 (53%) 4.3% 66.5% 72.6% 60.2% 87.5% 68.4% 31.5% 41.1% 54.4% 1.30 vs Lefties 4-0 (100%) 1-0 (100%) 6.9% 64.8% 69.8% 58.7% 82.9% 65.9% 47.6% 49.3% 57.2% 1.45 Best of 3 24-4 (86%) 6-3 (67%) 3.7% 64.6% 71.5% 60.7% 86.3% 67.7% 37.3% 43.9% 55.4% 1.36 Best of 5 16-3 (84%) 4-5 (44%) 5.2% 68.0% 73.1% 59.6% 88.1% 68.8% 28.4% 39.5% 53.9% 1.26 show yearly totals hide splits
Last 52 53-11 (83%) 18-12 (60%) 11.0% 62.4% 80.0% 58.6% 91.3% 71.9% 23.0% 37.9% 54.0% 1.35 Hard 37-8 (82%) 10-9 (53%) 11.1% 61.5% 79.2% 57.5% 90.9% 70.9% 23.8% 38.2% 53.8% 1.31 Clay 4-1 (80%) 2-1 (67%) 7.2% 60.5% 73.9% 60.0% 87.3% 68.4% 24.2% 36.2% 52.4% 1.14 Grass 12-2 (86%) 6-2 (75%) 12.1% 65.8% 84.2% 61.3% 93.6% 76.4% 20.3% 37.6% 55.1% 1.59 Grand Slams 10-3 (77%) 4-4 (50%) 12.2% 62.5% 83.5% 57.9% 94.7% 73.9% 22.3% 38.0% 54.6% 1.46 vs Top 10 4-7 (36%) 1-5 (17%) 8.9% 64.6% 77.4% 56.8% 87.8% 70.1% 18.5% 33.5% 51.0% 1.12 vs Righties 47-11 (81%) 18-12 (60%) 10.9% 62.2% 79.9% 58.4% 90.9% 71.7% 22.3% 37.5% 53.8% 1.33 vs Lefties 6-0 (100%) 0-0 (-) 11.8% 65.2% 81.6% 60.6% 94.5% 74.3% 30.1% 41.9% 56.6% 1.63 Best of 3 43-8 (84%) 14-8 (64%) 10.5% 62.4% 78.7% 58.8% 90.0% 71.2% 23.2% 37.9% 53.8% 1.32 Best of 5 10-3 (77%) 4-4 (50%) 12.2% 62.5% 83.5% 57.9% 94.7% 73.9% 22.3% 38.0% 54.6% 1.46 show yearly totals hide splits Comment -
The specific match stats do not post easily, but if you look at Nadal's conversion % for 1st & 2nd serve against Federer past two matches he was 70%. He now in the 69%/59% this season on clay. I would expect Federer would be a tougher opponent than typical ATP event clay players.
Thus, I would argue he is worse than in previous seasons on clay. Still very strong but not 2013 clay Nadal.
Might go a small play on Federer +2.5 sets as his clay stats are an impressive 74%/60% this season. Still though, in previous matches he only won 55% looks like for both 1st/2nd. Nadal is king of clay cause no one has an advantage with their 1st serve against him. His break rate is incredible. Surprisingly, before French open, federer's hold rate is higher than Nadal's this season on clay 87% vs 86%.
Also, take a look at the stats vs Top 10 ranked players for each. Federer has a much higher hold % and across the board better slashes. I definitely lean +2.5 sets after looking more into the stats.Last edited by eaglesfan371; 06-04-19, 10:44 PM.Comment -
Roger is 2-13 in his career vs Rafa on clay. He lost the 2008 French Open final to Rafa 6-1,6-3,6-0. Granted that was 11 years ago, but that type of beatdown on this surface never goes away.
I think Roger can win a set. But Rafa should win this fairly easily going by their career marks.Comment -
Well federer has shown not a bad game against wawrinka. He might make nadal run a lot so it depends how brutal nadal answers going to be.. Both might have similar stamina, I'm quite sure federer not going to gass soon, unless he takes a set or two and it's 5setter which is really small possibility then I'd go all in nadal cause he has all the edge in 5th set. Haven't seen nadal serve lately by the way but federer sucked with the break points yesterday.Comment -
If Fed tries that serve and volley shit on his 2nd serve he is going to get passed more often than eaglesfan on a job interviewComment -
Federer is the 2nd best clay court player of this generation
Lost to Nadal in like 6 FO finals or some shit
Nadal is basically impossible to bet against on this surface
Federer is probably the only guy that might have a very slight chanceCause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Novak has already beaten Rafa here (in straight sets nonetheless), what makes you think he can't do it again?Comment -
Don’t see Fed winning a set, but not touching this one. Had my fun with tennis for a while.Comment -
-650 now. Joker -750. Damn may just hit them both for free money.Comment -
Fed no chance. Anyone claiming Fed being the 2nd best on Clay dont know anything about tennis.
Novak is clearly 2nd best of this generation.
There will be a final between 2 of them, and it wont be easy for Nadal I can tell you that.
As for Fed vs Nadal. -2.5 sets is the no-brainer. I mean r u kidding me, the old man barely beat 5-hour-player Stan.Comment -
Federer steam rolled through everyone to play Nadal year after year. Nadal would smoke djokovic those years. That was Nadal's ultimate prime on the clay courts. He's evolved into a better overall player but on Clay in 2008 and those years, Djokovic isn't sniffing Nadal'ls Paris Crown. Djokovic could be better now on Clay, but Federer's prime on Clay is better than Novak's now. How many French opens does Djoker even have? 1? How many finals? I can't even remember him playing in that many FOs finals. Not as much as Federer.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
Its more about the quality not the amount IMO. In all those encounters Fed was embarrassed and he never won Nadal in FO, while Djokovic has done it.
and matches between Djokovic and Nadal in FO have been considerably closer.
We can talk about primes all day, I think Novak's now is better then Federer's prime on clay with only benchmark being Nadal. Meaning who, between the two of them, has performed better against Nadal. And history shows - DjokovicComment -
Rafa lost a set to goffin lost focus no chance that happening against fed he will want to destroy fedComment -
Nadal covers; been playing him under 18.5 games and lost once -- Goffin won a set. Took +12 once which was close, but no way I'm taking Fed +7 when Nadal is on fire. Thought Kei would cover +10, got bodied
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If you're not taking federer ml you don't like value. Literally getting the most skilled player of all time at 6 to 1 is a great bet.Comment -
People are reading too much into 2017, I remember these 4 matches, well remember the Australian Open clearly, and Federer was playing much better, and of course it was hard court. Then in the Shanghai match (their last one), Federer played unbelievably well, he was unbeatable that day.
Since then, Federer has slowly been declining, his title at the Australian Open in 2018 was quite fortunate because he looked average.
And again, it was hard court, not clay...
And there is this interview from Roger yesterday:
"But you just never know. He might have a problem. He might be sick. You never know. You might be playing great or for some reason he's struggling. Maybe there's incredible wind, rain, 10 rain delays. You just don't know. That's why you need to put yourself in that position."
First time ever I see Roger with such mind set before a match, says it all. This encounter somehow reminds me Rome final in 2013.
I understand that odds of 7.0 look tasty on paper but I would never put 1 euro on it.Comment -
stay away from big favs the ruination of a gamblerComment -
Federer has the skills to beat anybody... You clearly don't know federer too well if you think he ain't coming to win.Comment -
I don't think federer has ever been this big of an underdog at a grand slam in a single match it's insane. No doubt nadal should be favorite but this line is way too high.Comment -
This isn’t 2008 anymore. Fed doesn’t have the skills he used to. He’s still strong and I hope he wins, but let’s not pretend he’s the same player as he used to be. This is the first time he’s gotten back to a grand slam semi in over a year.
As for best of all-time, Novak has a serious shot at passing 20 majors.Comment -
I think Federer can win the match. He’s the better player currently but obviously judging by the odds, Nadal on clay is just too much of an advantage.Comment
