Is the MLB sample size big enough to start pounding plays?

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  • Shute
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-20-17
    • 11835

    #1
    Is the MLB sample size big enough to start pounding plays?
    Usually wait till June
    What are your observations thus far?
  • Shute
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-20-17
    • 11835

    #2
    Usually takes around 50 games to get a feel for the totals and fades
    Comment
    • KVB
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 05-29-14
      • 74817

      #3
      You really only need about 4 good outings for a pitcher but I'd say one solid month of ball is it.

      We crossed that point a couple of weeks ago.
      Comment
      • Shute
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 03-20-17
        • 11835

        #4
        So fade KC Baltimore and Miami every chance you can
        Got it!
        Thanks
        Comment
        • Shute
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 03-20-17
          • 11835

          #5
          These perpetual cellar dwellers are so far back through mid May they know the long grind of the season is ahead and just roll over
          Comment
          • KVB
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 05-29-14
            • 74817

            #6
            Originally posted by Shute
            So fade KC Baltimore and Miami every chance you can
            Got it!
            Thanks
            Uh, no, not exactly, but sort of.

            All I'm saying is that it's time to start generating the relative performances. Things will change and teams will run streaks but, like you said, if you fade Miami all season long, you just might turn a profit.

            You have to consider the pricing and potential pricing before continuing to fade.

            Here's an example if you were betting the same unit on the teams each game...

            So far this season, fading Baltimore every game which was +30 units and nearly 20% ROI last year, hasn't been so good at just better than +1 unit, depending on the line.

            Did you know that fading the Dodgers every game last year made you nearly 10% ROI and +15 units?

            You have to think about the numbers.

            Fading the Red Sox, or Oakland last year would have cost you nearly 40 units, but fading them this year has you up 8 or 5 units, respectively.

            It's not as clear cut as who is going to win and who is going to lose.

            I'm going to see if I can put something meaningful into some tables here, I have a ton of research, including the performance through April and part of May to see if we have anything.

            Comment
            • pavyracer
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 04-12-07
              • 82839

              #7
              Pound the biggest chalk and the smallest dog everyday and you will get rich quickly.
              Comment
              • Shute
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 03-20-17
                • 11835

                #8
                Originally posted by KVB
                Uh, no, not exactly, but sort of.

                All I'm saying is that it's time to start generating the relative performances. Things will change and teams will run streaks but, like you said, if you fade Miami all season long, you just might turn a profit.

                You have to consider the pricing and potential pricing before continuing to fade.

                Here's an example if you were betting the same unit on the teams each game...

                So far this season, fading Baltimore every game which was +30 units and nearly 20% ROI last year, hasn't been so good at just better than +1 unit, depending on the line.

                Did you know that fading the Dodgers every game last year made you nearly 10% ROI and +15 units?

                You have to think about the numbers.

                Fading the Red Sox, or Oakland last year would have cost you nearly 40 units, but fading them this year has you up 8 or 5 units, respectively.

                It's not as clear cut as who is going to win and who is going to lose.

                I'm going to see if I can put something meaningful into some tables here, I have a ton of research, including the performance through April and part of May to see if we have anything.

                I see where you are coming from
                KVB you are a numbers guy
                Thanks for input
                In my opinion
                Sometimes feel for the series or instincts are the way to go
                Comment
                • Big Bear
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 11-01-11
                  • 43253

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Shute
                  Usually wait till June
                  What are your observations thus far?
                  It’s hard to feel really comfortable pounding an MLB game

                  Be very patient

                  Make sure the numbers and stats make sense

                  Never bet on a cold team or a team you think is due

                  Why????

                  Winning and losing are both contagious
                  Comment
                  • 2daBank
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 01-26-09
                    • 88966

                    #10
                    Originally posted by KVB
                    You really only need about 4 good outings for a pitcher but I'd say one solid month of ball is it.

                    We crossed that point a couple of weeks ago.
                    Most have numbers going back several years, we know plenty early about 85% of the players so more than enough to work w to fire right out the gates. No interest in waiting till some arbitrary day to start.
                    Comment
                    • Sam Odom
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 10-30-05
                      • 58063

                      #11
                      began SOS already
                      Comment
                      • KVB
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 05-29-14
                        • 74817

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Sam Odom
                        began SOS already
                        Sammy knows. The season has officially begun.

                        Comment
                        • Big Bear
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 11-01-11
                          • 43253

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Shute
                          Usually wait till June
                          What are your observations thus far?
                          June 1st


                          time to go to pound town
                          Comment
                          • kingdom
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 07-25-10
                            • 10099

                            #14
                            great opps. but pound town is truly in august when so many teams have given up. but the fades you mentioned have already given up. just don't fade them when they face an opponent under .500.
                            Comment
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