Quarterbacks starting their 1st playoff game are 3-19-1 against the spread.....

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  • danwinkler
    SBR Sharp
    • 05-22-18
    • 461

    #1
    Quarterbacks starting their 1st playoff game are 3-19-1 against the spread.....
    I read this stat somewhere. Not sure if it is starting qb's making playoffs in the 1st season and the 1st game in playoff or just in general.
  • gauchojake
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 09-17-10
    • 34113

    #2
    Comment
    • Hman
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-04-17
      • 21429

      #3
      Wonder who the 3 winners are.

      Kurt Warner??
      Comment
      • TheMoneyShot
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 02-14-07
        • 28672

        #4
        Tom Brady?
        Comment
        • jjgold
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 07-20-05
          • 388179

          #5
          What stats so how do you take them now
          Comment
          • Mr KLC
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 12-19-07
            • 31097

            #6
            Stat or no stat........Colts ML
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            • Shutup
              SBR MVP
              • 12-15-17
              • 2435

              #7
              Originally posted by TheMoneyShot
              Tom Brady?
              Push
              New England won by 3 vs Oak
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              • Shutup
                SBR MVP
                • 12-15-17
                • 2435

                #8
                Mariotta covered last year. They won SU on the road vs KC
                Comment
                • Chi_archie
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 07-22-08
                  • 63167

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Hman
                  Wonder who the 3 winners are.

                  Kurt Warner??

                  I don't think the stat/trend would go back that far.

                  Prob in last 5-10 years
                  Comment
                  • Chi_archie
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 07-22-08
                    • 63167

                    #10
                    Blake Bortles last year
                    Comment
                    • Shutup
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-15-17
                      • 2435

                      #11
                      3-6 past 3 years along with this year. Bortles and Taylor both played first playoff game
                      AJ Mcarron(lost but covered)
                      Teddy Bridgewater(lost but covered)
                      Mariotta
                      Comment
                      • Chi_archie
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 07-22-08
                        • 63167

                        #12
                        so we are only talking about rookies starting first game?

                        doesn't really apply to this weekend as there are no rookies starting


                        going back you have to look at guys Like big ben on that 15-1 team, Russell wilson and Joe Flacco as true rookies that might have covered a few spreads
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                        • Shutup
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-15-17
                          • 2435

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Chi_archie
                          so we are only talking about rookies starting first game?

                          doesn't really apply to this weekend as there are no rookies starting


                          going back you have to look at guys Like big ben on that 15-1 team, Russell wilson and Joe Flacco as true rookies that might have covered a few spreads
                          I checked for first playoff game not rookie. Roethlisberger DID NOT cover his first playoff game. Tehy beat jets by 3. Believe they ere 7 or more point favorite. Wilson did cover his first game. Flacco did cover his first game
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                          • LT Profits
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 10-27-06
                            • 90963

                            #14
                            Since 2002, if you toss 6 games where first-time starting playoffs QBs opposed each other, the first time starters are 11-31-1 ATS.

                            The 3-19 ATS applies to first timers that were home favorites (like Mahomes this coming week)
                            Comment
                            • LT Profits
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 10-27-06
                              • 90963

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Chi_archie
                              so we are only talking about rookies starting first game?

                              doesn't really apply to this weekend as there are no rookies starting


                              going back you have to look at guys Like big ben on that 15-1 team, Russell wilson and Joe Flacco as true rookies that might have covered a few spreads
                              No it is QBs making first playoff start. They went 0-3 last week all as favorites (Watson, Jackson, Trubinsky) and now Mahomes qualifies this week.
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                              • Shutup
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-15-17
                                • 2435

                                #16
                                All the teams this year so far have been more defensive teams without a great offense. I think being a favorite without a great Qb against a really good QB is why these teams don't cover. Would be interesting to see how really good QBs as home favorites do. I believe Kurt Warner covered his first game at home Not sure . Can't find a line They won by 12. Assuming they covered but they were really good that year so not sure what the line would have been
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                                • Hman
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-04-17
                                  • 21429

                                  #17
                                  This is what we're looking for.

                                  Someone please copy & paste because I'm on cell and won't post properly.


                                  Comment
                                  • LT Profits
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 10-27-06
                                    • 90963

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Shutup
                                    All the teams this year so far have been more defensive teams without a great offense. I think being a favorite without a great Qb against a really good QB is why these teams don't cover. Would be interesting to see how really good QBs as home favorites do. I believe Kurt Warner covered his first game at home Not sure . Can't find a line They won by 12. Assuming they covered but they were really good that year so not sure what the line would have been
                                    Rams covered,they were -7.5 over Minnesota.
                                    Comment
                                    • Chi_archie
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 07-22-08
                                      • 63167

                                      #19
                                      On Saturday, Patrick Mahomes will make his NFL playoff debut when the Kansas City Chiefs (-5) host the Indianapolis Colts (4:35 p.m. ET, NBC). Mahomes is not the only quarterback to take his first postseason snaps this year, either.
                                      The Houston Texans’ Deshaun Watson, Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and Chicago Bears’ Mitchell Trubisky all started their first playoff game last weekend. It didn’t go well as each newbie lost and failed to cover.



                                      Should bettors expect the Chiefs to struggle in Arrowhead in Mahomes’ first playoff appearance? To find out, we looked at every first-time playoff starter since 2002 when the league expanded to 32 teams and adopted the current postseason format.
                                      In that time, 55 quarterbacks have made playoff debuts. Twelve of these QBs faced each other and have been excluded from our sample.

                                      That leaves 43 first-time starters in games against an experienced playoff quarterback, which is the same scenario for Mahomes and the Chiefs this weekend. Mahomes’ opponent, Andrew Luck, will start his eighth playoff game.
                                      As it turns out, the playoff flops by Watson, Jackson and Trubisky in the Wild Card round is nothing new. Since 2002, first-time starters in the playoffs have gone 13-30 straight up (SU) and 11-31-1 against the spread (ATS) per Bet Labs.
                                      All quarterbacks, whether they have home-field advantage or are favored by the betting market, have let gamblers down. Passers playing at home have gone 8-18 SU and 6-20 ATS, while chalk quarterbacks are 8-14 SU and 5-17 ATS.
                                      Quarterbacks who are home favorites, like Mahomes, have gone 6-13 SU and 3-16 ATS.

                                      History has not been kind to quarterbacks making their playoff debuts. Of course, Mahomes is not your typical newcomer.
                                      He’s only the second player in NFL history to throw 50 touchdown passes and for more than 5,000 yards in the same season. Mahomes is also a -230 favorite to win the NFL MVP award.
                                      Mahomes is not your classic first-time playoff starter, but he’ll have to overcome history to win and cover against the Colts.

                                      How would you rate this article?


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                                      • rm18
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 09-20-05
                                        • 22291

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Chi_archie
                                        Blake Bortles last year
                                        no the Jags did not cover won by 7 as 9 pt fav.
                                        Comment
                                        • shocka1212
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 10-06-12
                                          • 16788

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Mr KLC
                                          Stat or no stat........Colts ML
                                          Comment
                                          • House
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 09-04-11
                                            • 7088

                                            #22
                                            We shall soon see
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                                            • jtoler
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 12-17-13
                                              • 30967

                                              #23
                                              why anyone would touch the baby horses is beyond me
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                                              • Slipknot26
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 07-17-15
                                                • 5046

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by jtoler
                                                why anyone would touch the baby horses is beyond me
                                                That Colts OL is playing out of their minds . Unless Chiefs took time out to focus on the defense, which is yet to happen this season , think it's a close game .
                                                KC is a tough place to play , Indy traveling everywhere of late .
                                                Chiefs are going to have to blitz like hell or Luck will pick that defense apart .
                                                Comment
                                                • jtoler
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 12-17-13
                                                  • 30967

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Slipknot26
                                                  That Colts OL is playing out of their minds . Unless Chiefs took time out to focus on the defense, which is yet to happen this season , think it's a close game .
                                                  KC is a tough place to play , Indy traveling everywhere of late .
                                                  Chiefs are going to have to blitz like hell or Luck will pick that defense apart .
                                                  Im just joking around but if kc can get luck to throw beyond 5 or 6 yds I def. can see an int or 2
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                                                  • House
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 09-04-11
                                                    • 7088

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Slipknot26
                                                    That Colts OL is playing out of their minds . Unless Chiefs took time out to focus on the defense, which is yet to happen this season , think it's a close game .
                                                    KC is a tough place to play , Indy traveling everywhere of late .
                                                    Chiefs are going to have to blitz like hell or Luck will pick that defense apart .
                                                    I'd like to see them be more aggressive and blitz more also but they don't have to with two top ten guys in sacks and pressures (Jones and Ford ) Ones up the middle and the other is off the edge ... and then you have Houston who also had 9 sacks and 3 QB strips
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                                                    • House
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 09-04-11
                                                      • 7088

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Rolltide88
                                                      I'll have the chicken and watermelon
                                                      What the fuk is that about ? That shit ain't funny
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Hman
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 11-04-17
                                                        • 21429

                                                        #28
                                                        *Since 2002, first-time starters in the playoffs have gone 13-30 straight up (SU) and 11-31-1 against the spread (ATS)
                                                        Comment
                                                        • gojetsgomoxies
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 09-04-12
                                                          • 4222

                                                          #29
                                                          OP, thanks for posting......

                                                          i like this as i think it has a theoretical basis.. and looks like it's been such a FADE that any characterization of a first year playoff QB is a big loser.

                                                          mahomes is different, for sure...... but i'd still strongly play it.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • bettingman6
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 12-21-18
                                                            • 626

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by danwinkler
                                                            I read this stat somewhere. Not sure if it is starting qb's making playoffs in the 1st season and the 1st game in playoff or just in general.
                                                            Can you provide a link to this stat? I think you’re making it up.
                                                            Comment
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