So you think winning long term is impossible?

[Alfa1234]

Bengaluru VS Kolkata X2 at 2.57

[Alfa1234]

Manchester City VS Hoffenheim U19 1 at 2.34

[Alfa1234]

Monaco VS Dijon BSB 1 at 1.5
Antibes Sharks VS Boulazac BSB 2 at 2.19
Gravelines VS Bourg en Bresse BSB 1 at 1.5

[Alfa1234]

Robur Siena VS Albissola 1X at 1.11

[Alfa1234]

Update, very slow few weeks with almost no progress or profit. Break even for a while now. Total up 112.6 units with a bunch of games still open.

1/dec	Gloucester VS Worcester Rugby 1-12,5	1,87	0,87
	Norway VS Germany Handball 2+6,5	1,8	0,8
	Cologne VS Greuter Furth O10,5 Corners	2,1	1,1
	Hebeisen Hanau VS Chemnitz BSB 1	5,81	-1
	Walter Tigers Tubingen VS Artland Dragons BSBA 1	1,8	0,8
	Ingolstadt VS Hamburger 2	2,27	1,27
	Zemun VS Radnik Surdulica 1	2,1	-1
	Inter Milan VS Napoli U19 1	1,85	-1
	Hapoel Ironi Gharbiyye VS Hapoel Kfar Kana 1X	1,13	0
	Wizards VS Nets 1	1,47	0,47
	Genclerbirligi VS Kardemir Karabukspor 1H 1	1,36	0,36
	Getafe VS Espanyol X	3,4	-1
	Borussia Dortmund Vs Freiburg BTSY	1,91	-1
	Kings VS Pacers 2	1,95	-1
	Ashdod VS Hapoel Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2	2	-1
	Proleter Novi Sad VS Spartak Subotica 1	2,35	-1
2/dec	Red Bull Salzburg VS Fehervar 1min2,5	2,7	1,7
	Hannover Burgdorf VS Kiel Handball O51,5	2,25	1,25
	Hannover 96 VS Bayern Munich O3,5	2,43
	Hoffenheim VS Borussia Monchengladbach O3,5	2,31
	Difaa El Jadidi VS Mouloudia Oujda 1	1,64	0,64
	Atarfe Huetor VS Tajar X2	1,31	0,31
	Regensburg VS Cologne O3,5	3,19	2,19
	Darmstadt VS Ingolstadt 1	2,27	-1
	Barcelona VS Cultural Leonesa BTSN	1,45	-1
	Ahtitos Spaton VS Iraklis O2,5	2,29	1,29
	Leyma VS Real Canoe BSB 1min2,5	1,85	0,85
	Regensburg VS Cologne 2	1,98	0,98
	Hamburg VS Paderborn 2	4,6	-1
	Forca Lleida VS Oviedo BSB 1min4,5	1,85	-1
	Girona VS Atletico O9,5 Corners	2,1	1,1
	Liverpool VS Everton U4,5 Bookings	1,9	-1
	Dornbirner VS Medvescak Zagreb Hockey 1min2,5	3,03	-1
	Sturm Graz VS Wolfsberger 2	2,99	-1
3/dec	Borussia Monchengladbach VS Nurnberg X2	3,1
	Dukla Praha VS Pribram U21 2	2,75	-1
	Germany VS Estonia BSB 2+16,5	1,85	-1
	Mechelen VS Lokeren 1	1,95	0,95
	Kortrijk VS Anderlecht Reserves 2	1,95	0,95
	Al Wasl VS Al Ain U3,5	1,88	-1
5/dec	Barcelona VS Leonesa BTSY	2,8	1,8
	Frankfurt VS Duisburg Women U3,5	2,1	1,1
	Atletico VS Sant Andreu, Atletico last goal	1,18	0,18
	Manchester United VS Arsenal O9,5 Corners	1,85	-1
	Sevilla VS Villanovense BTSY	2,91	-1
	Nets VS City Thunders O219,5	2,1	1,1
7/dec	Napoli VS Frosinone 1H O1,5	2,24	1,24
	Wels VS Oberwart BSB 2	2,12	-1
	Manchester United VS Fulham, United wins by 1	4,1	-1
	Klosterneuburg VS Kapfenberg Bulls BSB 1	2,36	-1
	Hapoel Beer Shiva VS Bnei Sakhnin 1X	1,15	0,15
	St Pauli VS Greuter Furth 1	1,95
	Pistons VS 76ers 1	2,3	-1
8/dec	Athletic Bilbao VS Girona U9,5 Corners	2,2	-1
	Vereya VS CSKA Sophia BTSN	1,53	0,53
	Belenenses VS Chavez X	3,4	-1
	Netherlands VS Romania HDB 2	1,8	-1
	Lyon VS Glasgow Rugby 2+0,5	1,87	0,87
	Skjern VS Bjerringbro Handball 2+1,5	1,84	-1
	Navy VS Army 2	1,32	0,32
	Juventus VS Fiorentina U19 1	2,47	1,47
	Admira VS Red Bull Salzburg, 2 last goal	1,22	0,22
	Young Boys VS Thun O3,5	2,18	1,18
	Porthsmouth VS Southend 1X	1,18	0,18
	Panionios VS Kolossos BSB 1min 5,5	1,85	0,85
	Quimper VS Chartres BSB 1	1,94	0,94
	Znojm Orli VS Zagreb Hockey 1min 2,5	2,28	-1
	Guayaquil VS Universidad 2+1,5	2,14	-1
	Alajuelense VS Herediano X2	2,39	-1
	Celtic VS Kilmarnock X	6,3	-1
	Ottawa VS Pittsburg 3rd Period U1,5	3,08	2,08
	St Polten VS Altach X2	1,71	-1
9/dec	Zemun VS Mladost Lucani 2	3,29	2,29
	Wolfsburg VS Stuttgart 1	2,05
	Schalke 04 VS Hebeise Hanau BSB 1	1,5	0,5
	Heidelberg VS Rostock BSB 1	1,6	-1
	Vereya VS CSKA Sophia 1H O1,5	2,18	-1
	Huesca VS Real Madrid O9,5 Corners	2	1
	Bergischer VS Minden HB 2+1,5	1,84	-1
	Wigry Suwalki VS Odra Opole Exact 1-1	6	0
	Santa Tecla VS Aguila U2,5	1,85	0,85
	Lillehammer VS Sarpsborg Hockey 1	1,95	0,95
	Rad Belgrade VS Partizan Belgrade 2	1,47	0,47
	Backa VS Vojvodina 2	2	-1
10/dec	Botev Plovdiv VS Vitosha Bistritsa BTSN	1,56	0,56
	Krka VS Cibona BSB U153,5	2,19	1,19
	Tampa Bay VS NY Rangers 1min 2,5	3,18	2,18
	St Truiden VS Standard Reserves 1	1,83	-1
	Chievo VS Inter Milan O2,5	2,34
	Blackburn VS Swansea U23 2	2,52	-1
	Ipswich VS QPR U23 1	1,8	-1
	Crystal Palace VS Bristol U23 1	1,57	-1
	Banca Cluj Napoca VS Timisoara BSB 1min15,5	1,85	-1
	Crewe Alexandra VS Sheffield U23 2	3,87	-1
	Everton VS Watford O10,5 Corners	1,9	0,9
	Al Masry VS El Daklyeh 1	1,95	-1
	Adana Demirspor VS Giresunspor 1	1,85	-1
	Detroit Red Wings VS LA Kings 3rd Period U1,5	2,3	1,3
	Bochum VS St Pauli 1	2,23	-1
12/dec	Szolnoki Olaj VS Pinar Karsiyaka BSB 2	2,52	1,52
	Istanbulspor VS Umraniyespor 1	2,3
	Hermes VS Leki Hockey 1min1,5	2,15	1,15
	Comunicaciones VS Guastatoya 1	2,5	-1
	Levski VS Ironi Nes Ziona BSB 2	3,27	2,27
	Bengaluru VS Kolkata X2	2,57	-1
	Manchester City VS Hoffenheim U19 1	2,34	1,34
	Monaco VS Dijon BSB 1	1,5
	Antibes Sharks VS Boulazac BSB 2	2,19
	Gravelines VS Bourg en Bresse BSB 1	1,5
	Robur Siena VS Albissola 1X	1,11	0,11
		2,661483	112,6

[Alfa1234]

Friday 14 December:

Kaufbeuren VS Bad Nauheim Hockey 1min1.5 at 2.36
Liege VS Mechelen BSB O164.5 at 2.26

[Alfa1234]

Hapoel Le Zion VS Hapoel Ashdod HB X2 at 1.74

[Alfa1234]

Cardiff VS Saracens Rugby 1+12.5 at 1.87

[Alfa1234]

Leinster VS Bath Rugby 2+23.5 at 1.87

[Alfa1234]

Ulster VS Scarlets Rugby 2+8.5 at 1.87

[Poisec]

Starting tomorrow, I will proove it's not. Purely math based betting. I will post regularly, but mostly at the end of the day because during the day I'll be busy with models and calculations. This means a lot of the picks will be posted after the plays, but some will be posted before the plays are done.

You will see I am mostly beating the closing line on picks.

Beating Pinnacle closing odds is what it is about I think, but depending on which market it's important to beat it by 5% or more? What's your opinion?

[Alfa1234]

Newtown VS Llandudno 1H O1.5 at 2.35

[Alfa1234]

Beating Pinnacle closing odds is what it is about I think, but depending on which market it's important to beat it by 5% or more? What's your opinion?

Depends on their vig. Obviously if Pinnacle closes a handicap at 1.87 / 1.87 and you beat it by 5% (so your odd was 1.963) you are not beating the vig. You have to beat Pinnacle + their vig to have +EV.

[Poisec]

Depends on their vig. Obviously if Pinnacle closes a handicap at 1.87 / 1.87 and you beat it by 5% (so your odd was 1.963) you are not beating the vig. You have to beat Pinnacle + their vig to have +EV.

Ok but Pinnacle will close at 1.95 / 1.95 that's why I was saying 5%, obviously this is a rough estimate. Right they add bigger margins on smaller markets but these ones should be easier to beat by 10% or more if you know the sport well.

[Poisec]

Newtown VS Llandudno 1H O1.5 at 2.35

Your odds are obviously much better, but I agree with the other guys on the first two or three pages, it is kind of a useless topic for the readers here, since you are not betting online, but in a physical shop, and we don't even know if which place you are located

[Alfa1234]

Hassania Agadir VS Generation Foot U2.5 at 2.36

[Alfa1234]

Your odds are obviously much better, but I agree with the other guys on the first two or three pages, it is kind of a useless topic for the readers here, since you are not betting online, but in a physical shop, and we don't even know if which place you are located

I did say tailing would not be possible, just trying to demonstrate you can win long term. A lot of people here think that's not possible.

Not all odds are better by the way, you picked one there, but I've been betting lines that are generally available as well.

[Alfa1234]

Grizzlies VS Heat U198.5 at 2.32

[Alfa1234]

Wacker Innsbruck VS Wolfsberger 2 at 2.3

[Alfa1234]

Sevilla VS Girona BTSY at 1.95

[Alfa1234]

Ekundayo VS Greene Boxing 1 at 1.25

[KVB]

I did say tailing would not be possible, just trying to demonstrate you can win long term. A lot of people here think that's not possible.

Not all odds are better by the way, you picked one there, but I've been betting lines that are generally available as well.

Many of us have been beating the closing line and the markets over 1000s of place for years, because we adapt.

Those who say it isn't possible, don't get the math, the creativity, or both to make it possible.

Not sure why those people are even in a gambling Forum.

The ones warning others not to do it or that is is impossible are doing so because they never did it themselves.

I personally know more then a half dozen individuals who beat the market, all with different strategies, and have been for years.

I feel bad for guys like Danshan that spent so much time, has been told by successful bettors to beat the line, but never really got a clue on how to do that.

Guys like that just tell everyone how it is impossible.

Alfa, your thread will fall on deaf ears. I've been here, I've done that.

[Alfa1234]

No problem KVB, it's fun in a way.

Saturday 15 December:

Peristeri VS Panionios BSB 1 min 14.5 at 1.87
Montreal VS Ottowa Senators 1min2.5 at 3.46

[Alfa1234]

Balikesirspor VS Adana Demispor 1 at 2.93

[Alfa1234]

Slovacko VS Dukla Prague X draw at 3.75

[Alfa1234]

Augsburg VS Schalke 04 U9.5 corners at 2.0

[Alfa1234]

Timisoara VS Northampton Saints 1+29.5 at 1.87

[Alfa1234]

Macclesfield VS Crawley 1 at 2.4
Virtus Verona VS Fano U1.5 at 2.8

[Alfa1234]

Harlequins VS Benetton Treviso Rugby 2+12.5 at 1.87

[Alfa1234]

Washington Huskies VS Virginia Tech 2 at 1.39

[Alfa1234]

Southport VS Solihull 2 at 2.02
Ebbsfleet VS Dagenham 1 at 1.9
Valka Valga VS TTU BSB 2 at 1.48

[Alfa1234]

Florida Panthers VS Toronto Maple Leafs 3rd Period O1.5 at 2.93

[Alfa1234]

Penn State VS North Carolina 2 at 1.6

[Alfa1234]

Sunday 16 December:

Qarabag VS Keshla 1x at 1.13
Hansa Rostock VS Cottbus 1 at 2.0
Hannover VS Fortuna Dusseldorf 2 at 4.33
Dunav Ruse VS Ludogorets BTSY at 2.5

[Alfa1234]

Florida Panthers VS Toronto Maple Leafs 3rd Period O1.5 at 2.93

This was obviously meant as U1.5, not O1.5 and it was a loss.