Michigan versus Villanova, National Championship Game.

[RM Logic]

No team in NCAA history has had an easier path to the championship game than Michigan. They should have lost to Houston. They just are not as good as some here seem to think. Playing mostly weak offensive teams in a lousy B1G 10 this year made their defensive ratings seem high.
Point guard Simpson was lousy against Loyola- Brunson will dominate the point.
I know taking 7 points is tempting but Villanova is just alot better. I expect a double digit win.

[johnnyvegas13]

]No team in NCAA history has had an easier path to the championship game than Michigan. [/B]They should have lost to Houston. They just are not as good as some here seem to think. Playing mostly weak offensive teams in a lousy B1G 10 this year made their defensive ratings seem high.
Point guard Simpson was lousy against Loyola- Brunson will dominate the point.
I know taking 7 points is tempting but Villanova is just alot better. I expect a double digit win.

what was novas path

bestr team they placed was wv

[TheMoneyShot]

-200 is a 33% better price than -310. . So yes -200 was a significantly better price. And that's just given the quick example you used.

You're crazy dude. When did you start gambling? Last week?

You have a lot to learn.

[TheMoneyShot]

And I'll bet you any amount you'd like if Michigan is up 7 with 4 minutes left to play nova would be more than double the prices you're saying. Books would get hammered if they left that pricing with 4 minutes left. Michigan would be minimum -750 using your example

Michigan would not be -750 up 7 with 4 minutes to go.

You're a fool.

[TheMoneyShot]

Westgate just moved Villanova ML to -350

[ans61201]

You're crazy dude. When did you start gambling? Last week?

You have a lot to learn.

Where is that wrong? -200 not a better price than -310?

[ans61201]

Michigan would not be -750 up 7 with 4 minutes to go.

You're a fool.

I'll wager you any amount you want.

Let's take the next 7 point favorite who's down 7 with 4 mins left to go. This isn't perfect science as each game is differnent but like I said I'll wager you anything you'd like the price I gave will be much closer to offered live price then +140 nova. Holy hell you really don't have a clue how live betting works

[ans61201]

If you really think any team that starts the game 7 point favorites, down 7 with 4 left is only +140 you're insane. Anyone who live bets on a semi regular basis knows how asinine that is

[KVB]

Where is that wrong? -200 not a better price than -310?...

Define better?

There is not enough information here to determine which is the better price. For comparing different games, a -310 price could offer a much better value or even advantage over the market. For example, getting -310 for an estimated -500 game is much better than getting -200 for an estimated -150 game.

If you're not estimating a vig free line, then prices really do become meaningless.

[ans61201]

Define better?

There is not enough information here to determine which is the better price. For comparing different games, a -310 price could offer a much better value or even advantage over the market. For example, getting -310 for an estimated -500 game is much better than getting -200 for an estimated -150 game.

If you're not estimating a vig free line, then prices really do become meaningless.

No this one is pretty simple.

The same game. A game that starts -310 and that same team becomes -200. Even more important when talking about hedging purposes to find the better price.

[KVB]

No this one is pretty simple.

The same game. A game that starts -310 and that same team becomes -200. Even more important when talking about hedging purposes to find the better price.

If the line moved so much the initial conditions may have changed. There may have been value at -310 that doesn't exist at -200.

Whether the new -200 line is pre game or live, there must be a recalculation of your estimation.

Conditions have changed, causing the move, and just because it is priced lower doesn't necessarily make it a "better" bet from a calculation or value standpoint.

[KVB]

For example, I may want to buy a new Ferrari for a shit ton of money.

They are offering a discount if they remove the tires and engine.

I may have gotten a better price with the discount, but was really a better value? Initially, a car I own that won't run is just as useful as a car I don't have.

We can extend the example by bringing in the cost of tires and engine, but hopefully you get what I'm saying.

[ans61201]

If the line moved so much the initial conditions may have changed. There may have been value at -310 that doesn't exist at -200.

Whether the new -200 line is pre game or live, there must be a recalculation of your estimation.

Conditions have changed, causing the move, and just because it is priced lower doesn't necessarily make it a "better" bet from a calculation or value standpoint.

Totally understand what you're saying. In this case he's worried about Michigan not winning and simply wants to hedge. If at some point you know you're going to put a few thousand on nova no matter what at that point it becomes finding best value. I don't think -300 +'is best value. We will all find out in 30 hours

[ans61201]

If the line moved so much the initial conditions may have changed. There may have been value at -310 that doesn't exist at -200.

Whether the new -200 line is pre game or live, there must be a recalculation of your estimation.

Conditions have changed, causing the move, and just because it is priced lower doesn't necessarily make it a "better" bet from a calculation or value standpoint.

This would be more applied in a situation where one simply wanted to bet nova. In a situation where it's just a hedge the math becomes more important imo.

[KVB]

[ans61201]

Good luck on bets on the championship game. I think nova wins. But so does the entire world. The last few football and basketball championships tell me that somehow this game is going to find a way to get played close.

The law of averages will probably take nova shooting % down mixed with better d from
Michigan.

[El Nino]

Line probably very sharp and decided by FTs at the end

If that's the case, Michigan is fukked. One of the worst FT shooting teams vs. one of the best. I have a +4000 future on Michigan and am taking my free $ and running. Nova by double digits easy.

[mrpapageorgio]

I was able to find -300 Nova, so I decided to hedge. I'll take a nice payout either way.

[DOM_Toretto]

Good luck on bets on the championship game. I think nova wins. But so does the entire world. The last few football and basketball championships tell me that somehow this game is going to find a way to get played close.

The law of averages will probably take nova shooting % down mixed with better d from
Michigan.

Actually Nova shot 45% from 3 vs. Kansas, and their season long average is 40%

Nova proved to me they can win games without the 3 - shot only 17% against Texas Tech for example - Nova the best offensive team I’ve seen in years. Jalen Brunson one of the best point guards in college in years.

[lakerboy]

When is this game? Next month? Do they need a week off to rest?

[packerd_00]

what was novas path

bestr team they placed was wv

Kansas had played well up until they met Villanova,just because the Wildcats tore them apart,speaks to how much better Villanova is then everyone else.

[unde0087]

Kansas had played well up until they met Villanova,just because the Wildcats tore them apart,speaks to how much better Villanova is then everyone else.

Ya, not sure what this guy is smoking packerd but Nova faced the toughest path they could. I mean there was basically zero upsets on their side of the bracket. They faced the lowest seeds you are going to face as a #1 seed. Having faced the top 3 teams from one of the top 2 conferences in America.

[packerd_00]

Ya, not sure what this guy is smoking packerd but Nova faced the toughest path they could. I mean there was basically zero upsets on their side of the bracket. They faced the lowest seeds you are going to face as a #1 seed. Having faced the top 3 teams from one of the top 2 conferences in America.

Yeah the guys talking out of his ass, Villanova had no easy matchup.

[keely85]

Nova has players that will take the game to Wagner inside. He carried them over a garbage Loyola team. Get him in foul trouble and its over. Also, who do you trust to win a 3pt battle after watching that second game? Let's be honest Nova can just cycle out someone who isn't shooting well.

[thechaoz]

You're the best.

Rekt

[RPP]

NOVA or no play. Michigan fan boys are delusional.

[Wrongside]

No team in NCAA history has had an easier path to the championship game than Michigan. They should have lost to Houston. They just are not as good as some here seem to think. Playing mostly weak offensive teams in a lousy B1G 10 this year made their defensive ratings seem high.
Point guard Simpson was lousy against Loyola- Brunson will dominate the point.
I know taking 7 points is tempting but Villanova is just alot better. I expect a double digit win.

Ugh...Penn State won the NIT

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Line is too sharp

I mean the line is spot on too fukking sharp

-7 makes it a no play , either way

but it’s the championship game so ppl will bet it regardless

retiring at 9 wins , 3 losses and a push this tournament

And going to sit and enjoy the final game

[ChiLLx]

Line is too sharp

I mean the line is spot on too fukking sharp

-7 makes it a no play , either way

but it’s the championship game so ppl will bet it regardless

retiring at 9 wins , 3 losses and a push this tournament

And going to sit and enjoy the final game

Agree on sitting the spread out. But will try and get reduced ML live on Nova if the opportunity is there. Would be very surprised if Villanova did not win straight up

[ans61201]

Let me preface this by saying I'm on nova in this game. (Well will be if I can find a better price in game)

But with these threads this is really feeling a lot like the super bowl, with all of the "it's a lock talk" the same everyone was with the patriots. I think nova is the superior team. But college championships have been really close recently with huge ratings spikes. And defensive teams find a way to ugly it up/keep it close

[Hot Jerry]

All I know that NOVA WILL WIN - that's all !! ML here is the way to go !!

[ikid2groove415]

Michigan is going win- goodluck losing money idiots

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Michigan is going win- goodluck losing money idiots

Ikid2groove makes numerous analytical points in this post fellas
after reading his angle on the game
and whatever insider he grabbed that info from
Michigan just essentially just went from a underdog to “LOCK CITY”

id grab Michigan @ +7 now before you wake up tomorrow

and it’s Michigan -13

[Hot Jerry]

Ikid2groove makes numerous analytical points in this post fellas
after reading his angle on the game
and whatever insider he grabbed that info from
Michigan just essentially just went from a underdog to “LOCK CITY "

id grab Michigan @ +7 now before you wake up tomorrow

and it’s Michigan -13

Team [ Michigan ] that lost to Nebraska by 20 during a season should NEVER MAKE IT THIS FAR !! NOVA will play Lakers tomorrow night after they KILL Michigan !!

[survive]

Actually Nova shot 45% from 3 vs. Kansas, and their season long average is 40%

Nova proved to me they can win games without the 3 - shot only 17% against Texas Tech for example - Nova the best offensive team I’ve seen in years. Jalen Brunson one of the best point guards in college in years.

Best team since the 09 unc team