Michigan versus Villanova, National Championship Game.

**ans61201** · 04-01-18, 12:06 AM

Giant, I always hedge in these situations, but I would not hedge the current ML. If anything ratings will make this game close for a good chunk. Look at recent college title games for major sports.

I'm almost certain you'll find a much better price in game to hedge. I wouldn't be surprised to get nova close to even or even + at some point. Michigan will ugly it up and will control parts of the game. Any team that good on defense will.

I like nova in the game, but will in game it for a better price.

**PAULYPOKER** · 04-01-18, 12:10 AM

Thrilla Manilla Villa's ML and ATS is an absolute

lock!

**The Giant** · 04-01-18, 12:19 AM

Originally posted by ans61201

Giant, I always hedge in these situations, but I would not hedge the current ML. If anything ratings will make this game close for a good chunk. Look at recent college title games for major sports.

I'm almost certain you'll find a much better price in game to hedge. I wouldn't be surprised to get nova close to even or even + at some point. Michigan will ugly it up and will control parts of the game. Any team that good on defense will.

I like nova in the game, but will in game it for a better price.

I was thinking about waiting a bit, and betting something live. The only problem with that scenario is Villanova jumping on them early like they did against Kansas (22-4). If that were to happen, I'd have nowhere to go.

Whatever I decide I've already come to the conclusion I'm going to be upset with the ending.

**ans61201** · 04-01-18, 12:23 AM

Originally posted by The Giant

I was thinking about waiting a bit, and betting something live. The only problem with that scenario is Villanova jumping on them early like they did against Kansas (22-4). If that were to happen, I'd have nowhere to go.

Whatever I decide I've already come to the conclusion I'm going to be upset with the ending.

Yes that's a possibility. I think Villanova blowing them out from start to finish is just as likely as Michigan with an upset. You could be equally as bummed if Michigan starts off up 16-7 and the game is even $

**pilebuck13** · 04-01-18, 12:26 AM

Let it ride giant

**TheMoneyShot** · 04-01-18, 01:01 AM

Originally posted by The Giant

I was thinking about waiting a bit, and betting something live. The only problem with that scenario is Villanova jumping on them early like they did against Kansas (22-4). If that were to happen, I'd have nowhere to go.

Whatever I decide I've already come to the conclusion I'm going to be upset with the ending.

I didn't even click your link Giant until a few seconds ago.

You might be over thinking everything? What else can you really do? You really want to hedge at Villanova -310 ML?

During any point of Live In-Game wagering... I find it hard to believe you'll get anything better than -310.

So whatever you decide to do.... I would do it before game time.

And even if you didn't do anything.... that would OK too.

GL

**ans61201** · 04-01-18, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

I didn't even click your link Giant until a few seconds ago.

You might be over thinking everything? What else can you really do? You really want to hedge at Villanova -310 ML?

During any point of Live In-Game wagering... I find it hard to believe you'll get anything better than -310.

So whatever you decide to do.... I would do it before game time.

And even if you didn't do anything.... that would OK too.

GL

Wait so you don't think he will ever get a Better price than -310 (so confident in a wire to wire nova win) but don't think he should do anything?

Solid. Solid advice, only found here at sbr

**TheMoneyShot** · 04-01-18, 01:38 AM

Originally posted by ans61201

Wait so you don't think he will ever get a Better price than -310 (so confident in a wire to wire nova win) but don't think he should do anything?

Solid. Solid advice, only found here at sbr

In regards to LIVE WAGERING... when will he get a better price? Even if Michigan was up by 7.... Nova will be -200 still.

Only time you'll get better odds... if Michigan was up 7 with 4 minutes to go.... you might get Nova +130 or +140... why would you risk it though? That's not a time to HEDGE.

And it is sound advice... GUY...

Books aren't going to give you a FREE SHOT at NOVA ML at any time during the game on Monday... without a BIG PRICE to pay.

**Plaza23** · 04-01-18, 01:39 AM

Villanova's only faced 2 top 10 KenPom defensive teams this year: Tennessee (6) and Texas Tech (4)

Vs Tennessee, they were down 44-29 before coming back to win. They shot 6-17 from 3 that game. They won 85-76.
Texas Tech they shot 33% for the game. They were 4-24 from 3. They won 71-59.

Michigan is KenPom #3 in defense. I expect Villanova to shoot very poorly from 3, and Michigan at anything more than 7 or 8 points is a gift. I expect Michigan to win out right.

**Plaza23** · 04-01-18, 01:43 AM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

They shoot 20% against Michigan....

Michigan will cover.

If they shoot 20% from 3 vs Michigan, Michigan will comfortably win by 10-15 points.

**TheMoneyShot** · 04-01-18, 01:48 AM

Originally posted by Plaza23

If they shoot 20% from 3 vs Michigan, Michigan will comfortably win by 10-15 points.

That would work for me.

**mrpapageorgio** · 04-01-18, 02:02 AM

I'm in the same boat Giant. I have a +6600 future on Michigan made a couple months ago (through Bovada). If this hits, it'll be my biggest win on a sports bet.

I'm up overall on March Madness so my bet is technically already paid for if this loses, but wouldn't mind cashing something on Monday. Price is too high on the ML with Nova, so considering waiting to see if the price comes down doing it live, or just saying f*** it and sweating the whole thing.

**ans61201** · 04-01-18, 02:17 AM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

In regards to LIVE WAGERING... when will he get a better price? Even if Michigan was up by 7.... Nova will be -200 still.

Only time you'll get better odds... if Michigan was up 7 with 4 minutes to go.... you might get Nova +130 or +140... why would you risk it though? That's not a time to HEDGE.

And it is sound advice... GUY...

Books aren't going to give you a FREE SHOT at NOVA ML at any time during the game on Monday... without a BIG PRICE to pay.

-200 is a 33% better price than -310. 😂😂. So yes -200 was a significantly better price. And that's just given the quick example you used.

**Plaza23** · 04-01-18, 02:20 AM

Originally posted by mrpapageorgio

I'm in the same boat Giant. I have a +6600 future on Michigan made a couple months ago (through Bovada). If this hits, it'll be my biggest win on a sports bet.
.

If you're holding a +6600 future ticket, then I'd be hedging on Villanova (unless you just don't care if you lose).
Villanova is -310

$100 to win $6,600 on Michigan.
3,100 to win 1,000 on Villanova.

Guarantee yourself either $900 or $3,500.

If you don't have 3,100 in your account to hedge with, then yeah I guess you just gotta let it ride.

**ans61201** · 04-01-18, 02:20 AM

And I'll bet you any amount you'd like if Michigan is up 7 with 4 minutes left to play nova would be more than double the prices you're saying. Books would get hammered if they left that pricing with 4 minutes left. Michigan would be minimum -750 using your example

**Plaza23** · 04-01-18, 02:25 AM

Originally posted by ans61201

And I'll bet you any amount you'd like if Michigan is up 7 with 4 minutes left to play nova would be more than double the prices you're saying. Books would get hammered if they left that pricing with 4 minutes left. Michigan would be minimum -750 using your example

I live bet all the time. If Michigan is up by 10 points at some point in the 1st half, then it'd be even money at that point. I'm not sure how advanced Bovada's in play betting is since I haven't played there in over 3 years, but at 5D you can go into LiveBetting Ultra and get constant MLs thru-out the game.

You're just taking a chance not hedging because if Villanova comes out on fire and builds up a 8-10 point lead, you'll never get very low odds on them the rest of the game.

**ans61201** · 04-01-18, 02:30 AM

Originally posted by Plaza23

I live bet all the time. If Michigan is up by 10 points at some point in the 1st half, then it'd be even money at that point. I'm not sure how advanced Bovada's in play betting is since I haven't played there in over 3 years, but at 5D you can go into LiveBetting Ultra and get constant MLs thru-out the game.

You're just taking a chance not hedging because if Villanova comes out on fire and builds up a 8-10 point lead, you'll never get very low odds on them the rest of the game.

Of course there is a risk. Michigan is so good defensively, and the refs will keep this one close. We don't see blowouts often in college championship games recently. Everything down to the wire last few years.

I 100% believe we will see a better price than -300. And if they get up 14 and take complete control, (I know most can't stomach doing this) but I'd lay the -2500 for 5k and come out couple hundred ahead lol (not the advice I'd give for others)

But long story short, the ratings and Michigan defense should give them a solid 5-6 minute stretch of control in this game. And I think equally as likely they win outright as it is they get blown out

**ans61201** · 04-01-18, 02:32 AM

Originally posted by Plaza23

I live bet all the time. If Michigan is up by 10 points at some point in the 1st half, then it'd be even money at that point. I'm not sure how advanced Bovada's in play betting is since I haven't played there in over 3 years, but at 5D you can go into LiveBetting Ultra and get constant MLs thru-out the game.

You're just taking a chance not hedging because if Villanova comes out on fire and builds up a 8-10 point lead, you'll never get very low odds on them the rest of the game.

Bovada live betting is great. I won 4 out of 5 games today (multiple bets on almost every game) did not lay one bet pre game except Pistons -190. Other than that all live betting.

My favorite one as crazy as it is to most is how long bovada leaves the -2500 in basketball. They'll have that price up on 20 point games with 9:33 left. Easy hundred bucks a couple times a week. I know it'll eventually burn me but the short of it, their live betting is great.

**unde0087** · 04-01-18, 02:54 AM

Giant, do yourself a favor and hedge. I usually wouldn't do it but Michigan isn't winning this game imo. If Michigan plays the first half like they have played every game but one in this tournament, they will be get what Kansas got. Only this time they won't be coming back because they are playing a team that is better, not some rinky dink upset special teams. Nova looks just as good as a couple of years ago, maybe better. They aren't all of a sudden going to drop off. Nova has dominated this tournament. No reason to think they aren't going to finish it. They have given us zero reason to doubt they won't take care of Michigan, if not completely handle them.

**Wrongside** · 04-01-18, 03:13 AM

Maybe Michigan puts a game together. They are a tight knit group with good chemistry that doesn't get too rattled when down. However, they have been down a lot this tourney and rarely come out hot. I too want to live hedge, but I am not sure I will get a good crack. Plus. I can really see Wagner getting in foul trouble. He seems to be in foul trouble half the time. Paschal is just the guy to get him into trouble. Also, I have seen refs put stars in early foul trouble in Final Four and Championship game before.

**darrell74** · 04-01-18, 03:21 AM

Originally posted by unde0087

Giant, do yourself a favor and hedge. I usually wouldn't do it but Michigan isn't winning this game imo. If Michigan plays the first half like they have played every game but one in this tournament, they will be get what Kansas got. Only this time they won't be coming back because they are playing a team that is better, not some rinky dink upset special teams. Nova looks just as good as a couple of years ago, maybe better. They aren't all of a sudden going to drop off. Nova has dominated this tournament. No reason to think they aren't going to finish it. They have given us zero reason to doubt they won't take care of Michigan, if not completely handle them.

you are 100% correct

**DOM-Ganador** · 04-01-18, 09:07 AM

Originally posted by The Giant

You're the best.

No shit. absolute classic.

**jjgold** · 04-01-18, 09:08 AM

I’ll take the 6 1/2 any day

**Ra77er** · 04-01-18, 09:20 AM

Better to put eggs in one basket or spread them around?

**Booya711** · 04-01-18, 09:46 AM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

If Michigan's starting 5... plays like the FAB 5...

Look the fuk out.

And call a timeout when they don’t have one!

**no1here** · 04-01-18, 09:46 AM

My bracket has Mich vs Nova with Mich winning. Reviewing last games this won't happen. Nova start to finish.

**gauchojake** · 04-01-18, 10:14 AM

You bet 1 btc -310 and lock in about 2k in profit

Why over think this?

**Sam Odom** · 04-01-18, 10:18 AM

where is mathy when you need him

**str** · 04-01-18, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by The Giant

I was thinking about waiting a bit, and betting something live. The only problem with that scenario is Villanova jumping on them early like they did against Kansas (22-4). If that were to happen, I'd have nowhere to go.

Whatever I decide I've already come to the conclusion I'm going to be upset with the ending.

I have felt that way plenty of times. What that usually tells me is I like the position I am in but not necessarily the actual play in terms of my team winning. When I feel like that, I typically split the hedge so as to win about the same either way or in this case give up money to insure you get paid what you feel will work. Kind of like selling the ticket at it's current face value. Maybe slant it a bit in your current teams direction.
If you split the hedge, you will only be upset if Michigan wins. So a slight slant might might be the call.
Whatever you decide, good luck, nice pick on the future and don't second guess yourself. Doing so is a load of crap. Make the decision and don't ever look back.
Like Tommy Lasorda said, " I'll make the f'in decisions. It might not be the right decision but I'll f'in make it.

**ans61201** · 04-01-18, 10:56 AM

You have an entire group of people telling you nova will roll. Public is almost always wrong on these. Reminds me of the super bowl. That should make you a bit more confident in your ticket.

Keep in mind this is coming from a guy on a daily basis, bets NBA + games pre game with the plan to hedge. I always support a hedge. You'll get a better price than 310

**d2bets** · 04-01-18, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by TheMoneyShot

If Michigan's starting 5... plays like the FAB 5...

Look the fuk out.

So that means they lose by calling a TO they don't have? Who plays the Chris Webber role?

**tony_come** · 04-01-18, 11:19 AM

So what's the play?

Stop fukkin around

**ChiLLx** · 04-01-18, 11:57 AM

Line probably very sharp and decided by FTs at the end

**packerd_00** · 04-01-18, 12:38 PM

Villanova has been pretty damn solid all Tournament, reckon they can put the icing on the cake and finish it off against Michigan.

**packerd_00** · 04-01-18, 12:44 PM

Originally posted by The Giant

Defense wins championships.

Michigan will dirty the game up, should go way under.

They did a nice job against WV high pressure Defense to be fair to Villanova.