Laying horses - Starting from Feb-12-2018

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 01:07 AM

Armidale - Race 7:

Good Luck!

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 02:28 AM

Looking @ this one for the last race today in Sunshine Coast:

I haven't found a free link to watch the race but you can listen live here for live commentary:

TAB Radio

https://www.tabtouch.com.au/RRLive

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 02:31 AM

Last race today from Sunshine Coast:

Good Luck!

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 02:37 AM

Esperance - Race 5:

Good Luck!

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 03:37 AM

Esperance - Race 7:

Good Luck!

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 04:07 AM

Esperance - Race 8 (Last race for today in Australia):

Good Luck!

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 06:15 AM

Greyville, South Africa - Race 1:

Good Luck!

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 07:20 AM

Greyville, South Africa - Race 3:

Good Luck!

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 09:36 AM

Posting this one late, there were some glitches in the site with that race in South Africa, managed also to lay Celerity for the Southwell (UK) race, no screenshot though:

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 09:40 AM

Southwell (UK) - 14:45pm UK time Race:

Good Luck!

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 10:00 AM

Southwell (UK) - 15:15pm UK time Race:

Good Luck!

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by arie1985

Southwell (UK) - 15:15pm UK time Race:

Good Luck!

This one starts in 10+ minutes from now, here is some information on the horse taken from Bet365/RacingPost:

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 10:28 AM

Originally posted by Gaze73

This thread is headed to disaster. You're chasing fool's gold. I've been laying for a long time and the only horses I can lay profitably are favorites. Every year a couple of 1000/1 long shots win, what makes you think your 200/1s are different? And it's not even about luck, I've seen such ultra long shots win by 10-15 lengths. My prediction is you'll go to +3500 and then 2 big winners will put you down to -500 and you'll see it's pointless.

Currently my net profit is +3,389.12 EUR.
Of course if I lose the initial investment of 4,000 EUR I would be in a negative 600 EUR approx. assuming this happens in the next race.

I wanted to ask you: Are you staying with the same prediction or wish to change it?

**Hman** · 03-04-18, 10:44 AM

arie, pay no attention to comments like above.

Keep doing your thing.

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by Hman

arie, pay no attention to comments like above.

Keep doing your thing.

Thanks Hman!

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 10:58 AM

For some reason I don't see more races available in 9Wickets for now, maybe they will update it soon.

If not then I'd just have to wait for later on as I have no races to choose from.

I did follow without betting on the last Southwell race on 15:50pm UK time, African Trader was the "Underdog" with odds @ 21.00 from William Hill, 9Wickets (/BetFair) has him for 26-28.

5-6 minutes before the race odds started dropping.
Went down to 15.00 @ bookies and 17 @ BF.

2-3 minutes before the race it was around the @ 10ish.

1 minute or less before the race 6-8 ... and that horse won that race.

So for those of you who advocate to pick these horses to lay - I have a very good reason why I don't like this strategy, these horses win much more often than these huge longshots. I am not against laying a horse from to time if you study it properly but other than that it's not within my plans to do that unless I check it extremely well.

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 11:02 AM

Originally posted by arie1985

For some reason I don't see more races available in 9Wickets for now, maybe they will update it soon.

If not then I'd just have to wait for later on as I have no races to choose from.

I did follow without betting on the last Southwell race on 15:50pm UK time, African Trader was the "Underdog" with odds @ 21.00 from William Hill, 9Wickets (/BetFair) has him for 26-28.

5-6 minutes before the race odds started dropping.
Went down to 15.00 @ bookies and 17 @ BF.

2-3 minutes before the race it was around the @ 10ish.

1 minute or less before the race 6-8 ... and that horse won that race.

So for those of you who advocate to pick these horses to lay - I have a very good reason why I don't like this strategy, these horses win much more often than these huge longshots. I am not against laying a horse from to time if you study it properly but other than that it's not within my plans to do that unless I check it extremely well.

I managed to figure it out, you have to click on "Horse Racing - Today's Card" to view the next races, otherwise it is not going to show the races on the page I took a screengrab from for the time being.

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 11:05 AM

Southwell, UK - 16:55pm Race - UK Time:

Pammi seems like a good bargain here, she's @ 67 @ William Hill, I managed to get her for a decent price:

I did check her price throughout the day, it did remain around the 60ish, plus I like the horse record.

Good Luck!

**littlekona** · 03-04-18, 11:32 AM

well hope better weather and that UK racing gets back on track as all theses cancels really sucks

**jjgold** · 03-04-18, 11:57 AM

I think American racing this might not work the fields are much smaller and longshot can win

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 12:08 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

I think American racing this might not work the fields are much smaller and longshot can win

I agree, there are more longshot winners in US horse racing than others as far as I'm aware.
Still, you can find some good opportunities in the US as well.

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 01:13 PM

Tampa Bay Downs - Race 2:

Good Luck!

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by arie1985

Tampa Bay Downs - Race 2:

Good Luck!

The race is over, here is a screenshot from the race:

There is an inquiry on that race, not affecting me anyhow (Lofty Legend was among the last ones), I think they inquire about the winner so would let it some time to settle in the account.

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 02:49 PM

Tampa Bay Downs - Race 5 - Going against No. 6 here:

Odds went up to 82.

EDIT: Race is over, couldn't even post this pre-race.

I got a small amount matched.

This is why I'd sometimes prefer to lay @ 400 to get 10 EUR instead of 6 EUR because each bet is a sort of "all or nothing" anyway.
Anyway, this is better than nothing.

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 03:41 PM

LOUISIANA DOWNS - Race 5:

Good Luck!

**jjgold** · 03-04-18, 04:38 PM

Does anyone do this and turns a profit yearly??

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 04:48 PM

Sunland Park - Race 6:

Good Luck!

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Does anyone do this and turns a profit yearly??

According to a BetFair thread I read somewhere (I don't remember where) someone mentioned that's what some rich people do, they lay extremely longshot horses and that's how they make money, and they don't just lay 4k EUR like me, they lay 5 digits on each race.

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 05:04 PM

Fraser Downs - Race 2:

Checking horses 1 & 2.

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 05:07 PM

Odds change too rapidly in Fraser Downs, I'm avoiding it.

**Underdog5229** · 03-04-18, 05:39 PM

Originally posted by arie1985

Currently my net profit is +3,389.12 EUR.
Of course if I lose the initial investment of 4,000 EUR I would be in a negative 600 EUR approx. assuming this happens in the next race.

I wanted to ask you: Are you staying with the same prediction or wish to change it?

I also doubted arie in the beginning but have decided to give him a shot. I personally wouldn't feel comfortable doing this but I will show my support to arie in this venture. GL arie keep em coming.

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 10:44 PM

Good morning everyone.

Orange, Australia - Race 2:

I managed to match the full bet only after the race started by offering high odds in live, they were taken like hot dogs ... but pre race I tried going against Tumbleweed but the odds quickly went up to 251 against this one and to 700 in the exchange, couldn't afford it.

So tried the other 101 underdog Always A Lady, both were "good" underdogs - even here some people offered 500 in the exchange, seems like some sharks are going into the Aussie races now, I hope it's only one off ... anyways once the race started in live I managed to get a match, but you have to be quick, it's crazy how things change once the sharks are away.

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 10:47 PM

Originally posted by Underdog5229

I also doubted arie in the beginning but have decided to give him a shot. I personally wouldn't feel comfortable doing this but I will show my support to arie in this venture. GL arie keep em coming.

Thanks.
Right now it's +3,533.88 so if I lose any race now then Gaze73 would still make a correct prediction more or less, I'd say if I would get to 4k then his prediction would be wrong.

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 10:57 PM

Murwillumbah, Australia - Race 4:

Barely got this matched pre-race, still seeing lots of sharks in the exchanges today.

**arie1985** · 03-04-18, 11:17 PM

Orange, Australia - Race 3:

Once again, it was very difficult to get a match, the 10 EUR match is from live betting again. Too many sharks today, you can only afford it with a bankroll of 6000 to 10 or so, it's just too much.