I don't know KVB, leaning towards the over 49.5 in the 2nd game personally.
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Maybe those backups will try to have a good day out there but I get the feeling the defenses are going to be the ones in control tonight.
I'm probably passing on the Under, that line has moved too much and a middle (between 49.5 and 53.5) would not surprise me at all.Comment -
Montreal is going to do well against spreads next year, win or lose.
I just got back and didn't get this posted by kickoff but I picked up Calgary Stampeders -8 (-101) over Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
It's consistent with the parlay play on this game earlier.
Good Luck.
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Good call on the under!
I considered the UNDER on this first game even though there technically isn't an OVER forecast prediction.
My point is that I think it's a good idea to counter the sharp forecast Total predictions as well.
For the second game tonight, the opening line was close to the forecast of 54-56 point at 53.5 but has moved lower. I think the Under in game two could be a good bet, and that line continues to drop.
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Yeah Canuck, but the spirit of the sharp forecast failing was just plain wrong tonight.
The bold two pick to counter today was 0-2 and while the sharp forecast was 0-1 against the Total, it was 2-0 against the spread today and 1-0 against the moneyline.
As it turns out, the 1-3 ATS result of week 12 is going to be the only week of its kind and will remain the worst week of the season for the sharp forecast result.
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The sharp forecast says Saskatchewan wins with 30 points to Edmonton’s 24 points.
The stacking forecast has Saskatchewan winning with 27 points to Edmonton’s 23 or 24 points. The public gauge has Saskatchewan 30-25.
The line opened at -5.5 and has moved towards the stacking forecast. With the ½ point discrepancy, the sharp forecast predicts an Under against the opening Total of 54.5 and an Over against the likely close. This is another first with the adjusted scores for the season that we’ve seen in this final week.
Again, we’re in the last week and I would be hesitant to press the sharp forecast as it has done so well. I have given some money back against the sharp forecast this season on more weeks than I’d like but that said and even after the line movement from the open, I’ve picked up Edmonton Eskimos +3.5 (-105) and +145 over Saskatchewan Roughriders.
I really did go into a fade the sharp forecast mode this week and even the long term bets, which weren’t passed on but were actually reversed, took a loss there. Usually I pass this week altogether but because of the short term trading numbers this season, I decided to counter for long term as well. This is very rare for me.
If Edmonton doesn’t at least cover +5 and +4.5 spread (a win would also be nice) I will take a bit of a hit this weekend, the worst all season. Even being put in the position is what I get for not passing on the final week this season.
This post was last week and Edmonton went on to beat Calgary. I think Edmonton will continue to cover and maybe even win as they set up for the playoffs. Sometimes teams get on a roll at the end of the season and both Edmonton and Saskatchewan could fill that role. It’s similar to Ottawa last year, but perhaps not all the way like they did.
Of course the matchups will matter as well.
Good Luck.
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The sharp forecast has a tie between Toronto and British Columbia with each scoring 30 points and Toronto getting a slight moneyline edge in the raw score.
The stacking forecast say Toronto wins with 30 points to BC’s 23 or 24 points. Those methods using season means and medians show a 53 or 54 point game with Toronto winning inside a field goal. The public gauge has BC 28-25.
This is a game where the line opening early with BC -1 and moved to Toronto favored. This is only the second time this season it has occurred. The line moved toward the sharp forecast, then passed it. The sharp forecast will have a different result for the open and closing line in this game.
Over time, in this situation, the sharp forecast usually succeeds against the opener as it did with Winnipeg in the first game of Week 9. The team getting bought may get slightly over bought, but they still tend to come out on top in the end.
But this is the final week and it’s the second game today so it’s a tough call and likely pass. I do think it’s a good idea to counter the forecast Totals and we may see an Under in this second game. There is still time to decide.
As far as how it’s brought, it will be interesting to see that the first game will likely have the Total in question as the second game kicks off.
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Right now leaning under in the first game. Might do a small bet or pass.
Will be betting on Toronto for sure.Comment -
I read the line wrong. Thought it said Edmonton -3.5. Will be taking Edmonton +3.5.Comment -
winnipeg blue bombers cfl champs heard it here first
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The sharp forecast has Saskatchewan winning with 33 or 34 points to Ottawa’s 24 or 25 points.
The stacking forecast says Saskatchewan wins with 30 points to Ottawa’s 23 or 24 points. Basic methods using season averages and medians give Saskatchewan a 2 point or so win with Totals of 52 to 56. The public gauge also has Saskatchewan winning 27-24.
This line opened early as a pick and, despite every number above showing Saskatchewan winning, has moved away from the forecasts to Ottawa -2.
The Total opened lower than the forecasts, seems to be showing some public pressure on the Over, but we haven’t seen the line move much. While some metrics show a split here in terms of money, it sure looks like the books are taking a position and collecting those Over bets. It will be interesting to see if this Total shifts upward as the books reveal some of that pressure.
This is the first game of the day and of the playoffs so I am likely passing on countering the forecast with an Ottawa moneyline trade here. Given the success of the sharp forecast this season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it fail in the first game of the playoffs.
Let’s see what kind of movement comes on the Total up to about an hour of game time. There may be an opportunity for a better number when countering the forecast if the book decides to adjust upward.
As far as how it’s brought, this game may be a tough issue to settle and the spread and Total will likely be in question as we approach the kick off of game two. We could have a good game to the end, living up to the playoff billing.
One other note, these teams played in Weeks 15 and 17, trading one point victories; each for the road team. The first game went Over and the second game went Under the Total.
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The sharp forecast has Edmonton winning with 27 or 28 points to Winnipeg’s 24 points.
The stacking forecast says Edmonton wins with 28 points to Winnipeg’s 23 or 24 points. Basic methods using averages and medians give Winnipeg a small lead in a higher scoring game in the low 60’s and the public gauge has Winnipeg winnings 31-30.
The line opened early at a pick and has moved toward the forecasts to Edmonton -3.5, right at the sharp forecast. The Total opened between the forecasts and the gauge and has ticked toward the forecasts.
I can see pressure on the Over for this second game and will likely be taking a position on the Over by game time; countering the forecast. It is the second game of the day and we have time before making a decision.
I have mentioned that I think Edmonton could win in the playoffs. While the forecasts predict the Edmonton win here, the line has moved a bit and it may be best to wait before pressing the sharp forecast; particularly with an Edmonton moneyline play. Despite a key Winnipeg receiver being out, there may be a move towards the home team, possibly taking that line back to 3.
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Initial thoughts of the money flow are with Ottawa and the UNDER in the first game and followed by Edmonton and OVER in the second game.
One parlay could involve those teams as moneylines as well as the Totals we see tomorrow; I'd like to see if we get any movement first.
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Saskatchewan +3.0Comment -
I am doing a small bet on Edmonton -3.0.
Just small, Saskatchewan +3.0 was my favrouite of the day!Comment -
The books did adjust the line, moving from 51.5 to 52.5 and even 53 in some houses. I wasn’t available before game time to post the bold play.
There was a missed extra point by Ottawa keeping the score 31-20, pushing the opening line and going Under the close.
While the Total did appear to come down to the final possession, Saskatchewan and Ottawa didn’t play a nail biter and it was clearly Saskatchewan with plenty of time for the second game to begin.
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With the early success of the sharp forecast today, I am not going to press the forecast with an Edmonton bold play but I did pick up OVER 55 (-105) for Edmonton Eskimos vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
That pressure on the Over isn’t being shown and is fairly sharp market pressure. The books may have the split they want as the Total is forced down a point from the open at the same time metrics indicate countering the forecast Under play.
Good Luck.
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I have one other note on that Total for game two today. The first game appeared to be an OVER early and that generated mid game Under action on the second game not only from groups seeking market settlement, but also from those same types confirming their numbers.
As the game just falls Under by the end, the market now has plenty of time to react. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some last minute Over pressure here.
Those 55’s just might see 55.5 or at least get priced higher on that Over.
The market most certainly got action on this Total for the second game, on both sides. These high volume games can represent better opportunity for some of my market metrics, increasing my confidence in the Over play.
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After a late number change, I was able to pick up Edmonton Eskimos -150 over Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
Good Luck.
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Saskatchewan beating Ottawa seems to have been the only flaw in today's money flow parlay; leave it to the first game of the first day of the playoffs to try to kill the parlay.
Consistent with the regular season, the sharp forecast has begun the playoffs 2-0 against the spread, 2-0 against the moneyline, and 0-2 against the closing Totals.
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3 more games to profit. I have a feeling we’re gonna do great!Comment -
Congrats guys. I laid off today, Didn't want to bet with my heart being a Redblacks fan and all.Comment -
The sharp forecast has Saskatchewan winning with 31 or 33 points to Toronto’s 17.
The stacking forecast says Toronto wins with 27 or 28 points to Saskatchewan’s 24 points. Unsophisticated methods using season averages and medians give Saskatchewan a 3 or 4 point win with score of 51 to 54 points. The public gauge has Saskatchewan winning 27 to 23.
This line opened early with a pick ‘em and has moved away from the sharp forecast to Toronto -3. That line, combined with considering what appears to be some public pressure on the Over, essentially agrees with the stacking forecast, the only number above that shows Toronto winning.
With the rest of the numbers in agreement on Saskatchewan and considering the success of the sharp forecast last week against the moneyline, the give and take markets sure are pointing to a Toronto win. If that’s the case, metrics indicate this game could go Under.
Unfortunately, we don’t know who’s winning the first game before we have to bet the Total. We can, however, watch that Total line for a small drop in what would appear to be reverse line movement before game time.
In fact, I’ve already picked up UNDER 53 (-112) for Saskatchewan Roughriders versus Toronto Argonauts.
I think being ahead of the market with this Total will be the winning play and this could lead to a LIVE play as well. Last week the first game was well decided in terms of spread and moneyline before the game two kickoff.
This week it may different and we could even see overtime or at least a much more ambiguous result close to that second kickoff. This might cause some hesitation in taking an Under, as it increases the chances of a late Over result. Despite this, I pressed the sharp forecast Total for a bold play for the first time in many weeks.
Let’s see if I made the right call.
In considering the Toronto moneyline, and the failure of Saskatchewan, it may be best not to jump to conclusions just yet. I doubt the line will grow to more than -3, and it may even drop a bit by game time. I think it’s wise to consider the moneyflow for the day before making a decision. That means looking at game two as well...
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The sharp forecast has Edmonton winning with 33 points to Calgary’s 13 points.
The stacking forecast shows Edmonton winning with 30 points to Calgary’s 22 points. Those same unsophisticated methods using season averages and medians give Calgary a 5 to 8 point win in a 51 to 53 point game. The public gauge has Calgary winning 26-24.
This line opened with Calgary -6 and has ticked toward the forecasts and gauge to -5. Calgary has been cruising and the public has seen an impressive Edmonton team, giving Edmonton some public support, lining them up with the forecast.
In terms of the Total, with a position on the first game, I’m holding off to get a sense of the flow of money. If that first game does bring the late Over, we may be looking at an Under play for game two. One issue is that the game two Total is well set, right at the stacking forecast and those unsophisticated conclusions, and it may be best to pass on this Total.
In terms of moneyflow, one scenario for the day could be Saskatchewan failing, as mentioned above, and then Edmonton covering, or even winning. This way the sharp forecast spread or moneyline could go 1-1 and the markets could find that natural one favorite and one underdog settlement.
Another scenario with a decent probability would have Saskatchewan covering, even winning, and giving the sharp forecast a perfect record against the spread and moneyline for the first 3 games of the playoffs.
This opens the door for a normally public Calgary team to win and cover as the market realizes the settlement we’ve seen so often in high profile nights. Many times this possibility, and the easy conclusion that is drawn, results in one of the lines pushing, effectively reducing the damage from the two pick parlays, or cancelling the opportunity for give and take settlement.
At this point, my prediction about Edmonton from weeks ago may be coming to fruition as I think Saskatchewan could fail in the first game. We have time to decide before game two and as usual I would not be surprised to see ambiguity in game one as game two approaches.
I will likely have the screens and communication lines ready to make live trades in that first game, looking for too much of something too soon.
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Small bet on Saskatchewan +3.0.
Will bet bet big on Edmonton +5.0; small bet on Edmonton moneyline tooComment -
You have to know, that with Saskatchewan scoring first and the Total moving down to 52, I was looking at the Toronto moneyline LIVE.
I tried to get -124, couldn't, didn't like that they were keeping it at -135, and when I when I was trying to pull the trigger Toronto returned a pick.
Bam, they of course they are -186 and almost -200. At theis point it is over -800 live.
The boat was there, I missed it, and the day looks a lot like I analyzed it would go. The next step is ambiguity and with the a rush of points at the end of the first half, the late Over, which was considered above, may be on its way.
Many times this season in my analysis the movement and even game play was predicted and expected, only to have Calgary or Montreal spoil the fun. Montreal isn't around, but Calgary is.
The game currently shows Toronto covering and Under at the half. On the first game of the Conference Finals, do we really believe that going remain the Final result.
Of course not. I think Saskatchewan led for the only time the will today at 3-0, at this point the Over could be on it's way.
I think there is snow in Toronto, and that's going to keep me off the second half Total, but it sure feels like the writing is on the wall.
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Notice in the analysis that the first game is being approached from a standpoint of the sharp forecast and as I don’t make it about Toronto, but more about Saskatchewan.
Notice I make it about the failure of Saskatchewan then look at how they are playing on the field. Toronto has not been brilliant; this has been about the failure of Saskatchewan.
It’s not what they bring; it’s how they bring it.
If this game magically stays Toronto and Under it sure feels like the sharp forecasting analyst is being led right into the familiar Calgary trap.
I just wanted to point out another instance of the analysis walking certain money down a path; this thread is full of them.
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