"It all evens out"

**Buffalo Nickle** · 11-21-16, 04:40 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

Why would I not grade them fairly? It's in my best interest to do so

Because you are going to be prejudiced in your judgment of what was a good beat or a bad beat. Just like you think you've got great numbers on JUCO transfers and sophs starting for the first time. You will give yourself credit for the good ones or not even count them and count all the bad stuff. It's the way the mind works.

What numbers are we dealing with here? How many bad beats have you taken versus good beats.

**reigle9** · 11-21-16, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

Wong teaser clown

oh...you're hammered

inb4 the thread tomorrow "sorry guys, i was drunk"

**jjgold** · 11-21-16, 04:51 PM

Powell get your game up

**TPowell** · 11-21-16, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by reigle9

oh...you're hammered

inb4 the thread tomorrow "sorry guys, i was drunk"

I've never apologized for a damn thing here and I never will. Wong teasers are profitable at the right price you Nittany penetrate

**SlickRick1382** · 11-21-16, 05:50 PM

We remember the bad beats more vividly than we do the lucky beats. Your bet cashes and covers the line of -2 by 5. Do you even go check why? Could of been luck. I normally don't. I take my win and keep it moving. I don't waste time dwelling on what ifs.

But if you have -2 and it loses by 1 pt then we go back, check to see what happened, and can attribute a bunch of dumb plays that ****** our play from winning.

That might not be what you do, but I'm pretty sure that's why the majority of us do.

That's why I said it all evens out. I know i'm going to lose some due to straight bullshit. I also know i'm going to get lucky and win some too. I'm sure there are probably more of the bad beats than the good ones. I just choose to ignore it and move on. I don't like to waste energy or time thinking about the past and dwelling.

Don't spend time dwelling bro. Just look to the next day and get back on it. If you're a good capper, which from what I've seen in your threads, I think you are, then you'll come back from it.

Also sometimes, taking one day off to recharge isn't a bad thing....

Best of luck

**The Giant** · 11-21-16, 06:02 PM

It all evens out.

You just refuse to look at some of your wins as being lucky.

It's a psychological ploy we administer on ourselves. When we win, it's due to our master handicapping. However, when we lose, it's due to some sort of ungodly catastrophe.

The truth is, we're just flipping coins here, pal.

Some days we're the windshield, and some days we're the bug.

**The Kraken** · 11-21-16, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by Sam Odom

It's called 'regression toward the mean'

its your belief that bets arent mutually exclusive?

**TPowell** · 11-21-16, 07:09 PM

Originally posted by the kraken

Its your belief that bets arent mutually exclusive?

this

**newguy** · 11-21-16, 07:20 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

How can you not be penetrating stressed when you lose EVERY game that comes down to the wire? I went 3-4 yesterday and I would make 6 of the same plays again. 3 games that I was covering for entire halves, up until 35 secs left in the whole game, etc. Things do NOT even out. If you get a ton of **** breaks early in the season and get behind the 8 ball, you will NOT recover more than likely

Just to make sure I read that right. When given tomorrow's paper, you would bet into 3 losers because your model still says they win?? That's insanity my man.

**Foxx** · 11-21-16, 07:21 PM

Originally posted by The Kraken

its your belief that bets arent mutually exclusive?

Where did he say he anything about mutual exclusivity?

**greenhippo** · 11-21-16, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

You people have no clue. I MAKE these penetrating lines. I could put out these lines a day before the oddsmakers do and you'll see that my numbers are just as good as Ken Pom's or anyone elses. If you were getting the breaks I've been getting, you wouldn't even be on SBR anymore

Should have made UH -24.5 the other night.

**Electrons** · 11-21-16, 07:37 PM

But every gambler knows this and accepts it as risk.

And if you are really going to say variance can't be proven over a large enough sample size, then you need to quit now.

Over a small sample size, you will believe "things won't even out", but the law of large numbers in game theory proves beyond any doubt, that given a large sample size variance will decrease as your sample size increases.

**jjgold** · 11-21-16, 08:02 PM

You get a lot of bad breaks but also you do get good breaks it's the bad breaks that stick out more

**TPowell** · 11-21-16, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by Electrons

But every gambler knows this and accepts it as risk.

And if you are really going to say variance can't be proven over a large enough sample size, then you need to quit now.

Over a small sample size, you will believe "things won't even out", but the law of large numbers in game theory proves beyond any doubt, that given a large sample size variance will decrease as your sample size increases.

That's great but it proves it over a VERY long period of time it will. Could be years and years and years

**Buffalo Nickle** · 11-21-16, 08:11 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

That's great but it proves it over a VERY long period of time it will. Could be years and years and years

Yes. That's evening out. You may hit 41% for a season and probably will one day. That's bad luck.

**RudyRuetigger** · 11-21-16, 08:29 PM

Only winners in this game are those that don't bet or bet like myself

Guys trying to grind out 1k or less profits a week are pathetic

Why? any decent job pays over 50k a yr with benefits

I am here to fukk around and play lotto

**RudyRuetigger** · 11-21-16, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by RudyRuetigger

Only winners in this game are those that don't bet or bet like myself

Guys trying to grind out 1k or less profits a week are pathetic

Why? any decent job pays over 50k a yr with benefits

I am here to fukk around and play lotto

Guys doing it for a recreational grind are weird fukks

**Electrons** · 11-21-16, 08:56 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

That's great but it proves it over a VERY long period of time it will. Could be years and years and years

Exactly. And as gamblers we call that acceptable risk.

**xKMACKx** · 11-21-16, 09:10 PM

You need at least 1000 events to have a sizable sample size, from a research standpoint statistically speaking. It should be about even then, but there are always outliers and variables that could be taken into consideration.

**The Kraken** · 11-21-16, 10:38 PM

Originally posted by Foxx

Where did he say he anything about mutual exclusivity?

Implied

**The Kraken** · 11-21-16, 10:39 PM

Originally posted by xKMACKx

You need at least 1000 events to have a sizable sample size, from a research standpoint statistically speaking. It should be about even then, but there are always outliers and variables that could be taken into consideration.

Not true at all

**Foxx** · 11-21-16, 10:54 PM

Originally posted by The Kraken

Implied

Not really.

**kidcudi92** · 11-21-16, 11:02 PM

holy fukk dude stop fukking crying and pick a winner my GOD

**stealthyburrito** · 11-21-16, 11:05 PM

Poweller on the war path.

**TPowell** · 11-22-16, 09:09 PM

Guessing maybe 2020 is when it evens out? Had NW +4 that didn't win (up 1 with 20 secs left and lost in reg.) and an under that was 17 points good before a random OT that involved back and forth 3's. Anybody have an update on when?

**freeVICK** · 11-22-16, 09:10 PM

This loser is still crying like a little bitch?

**biggie12** · 11-22-16, 09:11 PM

Your good at complaining powell youd make a good wife lol

**TPowell** · 11-22-16, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by freeVICK

This loser is still crying like a little bitch?

IGNORE. penetrate you bitch

**TPowell** · 11-22-16, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by biggie12

Your good at complaining powell youd make a good wife lol

seriously, I guarantee none of you penetrates have been through what I have this season or any other season.

**statnerds** · 11-22-16, 09:29 PM

we've all been through it, or Gamblers Ruin wouldn't be a thing

see the issue is you can be the best bettor in the world but the house still holds the edge and in comparison to yours' their BR is infinite

**TPowell** · 11-22-16, 09:31 PM

Originally posted by statnerds

we've all been through it, or Gamblers Ruin wouldn't be a thing

see the issue is you can be the best bettor in the world but the house still holds the edge and in comparison to yours' their BR is infinite

Love the name. Great post

**franklee168** · 11-22-16, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

I'm not a professional gambler and the vast majority of morons on here aren't either.

It seems to me after reading all your responses here you do think you are a professional.

**TPowell** · 11-22-16, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by franklee168

It seems to me after reading all your responses here you do think you are a professional.

I'm not a pro gambler. I have a full time job. Do I think the difference between myself and pro gamblers is VERY small in most cases, yes I do. I've been a proven winner in most sports I've bet (NFL is more middling and MMA is a mess). I've never lost money in college basketball in nearly 10 years of playing so I COULD be a pro gambler. Pro gambling is all about your volume anyway

**lonegambler23** · 11-22-16, 09:59 PM

stop crying or dont gamble, its quite simple. you can be a bit annoyed but always on to the next game as a gambler.

**sportsfan9698** · 11-22-16, 11:46 PM

Originally posted by The Prick

all evens out hoss hate to break it to ya

business as usual

move forward

I agree with the prick - it all evens out. The key is to play each unit equally