Nash 2015 MLB Thread

[RollinDo]

Nasher - don't play Overs much, but I like the Over 7 in Cleveland-ChiSox tonight.
2 elite pitchers who have not shown much consistency this season. Kluber has been awful on the road and some Tribe hitters have had success vs Sale.
Wind blowing out straight to center at about 15 mph...Both pens not great.
Thoughts?

[stevenash]

Hey Nash... How Often Do You Update Your Bullpen Rankings?
Great Thread Keep Up The Good Work

Appreciate that.

KC will always be #1 (for the rest of this year anyway)

Best 3 bullpen I ever saw

Mo setting up Wetteland in 1996
Nasty boys from Cincinatti (Charlton, Dibble, Myers)
HDH boys 2014 KC Royals

If KC wins it all this year, they become the best bullpen I've ever seen.
They have to win all first.

RK	TEAM	W	L	ERA	SV	ER	R	BB	SO	BAA
1	Kansas City	9	2	1.6	13	23	25	40	106	0.183
2	Houston	11	2	2.15	15	28	30	25	127	0.178
3	St. Louis	10	4	2.21	17	30	32	40	114	0.233
4	NY Mets	3	3	2.59	15	27	28	33	95	0.192
5	NY Yankees	7	4	2.62	15	37	46	51	137	0.191
6	LA Dodgers	8	7	2.64	8	33	36	40	140	0.199
7	Detroit	6	3	3.02	13	34	40	32	73	0.24
8	San Francisco	7	4	3.03	10	39	43	42	91	0.229
9	LA Angels	6	4	3.07	12	35	37	30	99	0.217
10	Philadelphia	4	3	3.1	10	41	54	63	108	0.258
11	Pittsburgh	4	9	3.14	10	40	44	41	110	0.261
12	Tampa Bay	8	6	3.32	16	49	51	53	128	0.214
13	Washington	7	4	3.36	13	43	48	41	107	0.246
14	Cleveland	3	5	3.44	6	45	58	50	118	0.253
15	Chicago Sox	6	5	3.55	9	41	47	42	94	0.264
16	Seattle	5	10	3.57	10	44	50	53	96	0.239
17	Boston	7	5	3.71	9	54	56	48	102	0.254
18	Baltimore	4	3	3.72	10	43	53	38	101	0.229
19	Toronto	4	8	3.91	6	53	59	48	121	0.225
20	Milwaukee	5	3	4.14	7	52	65	43	119	0.246
21	Minnesota	5	4	4.19	14	56	61	31	80	0.274
22	Miami	6	7	4.23	4	57	59	43	108	0.263
23	Chicago Cubs	8	6	4.32	9	55	57	46	107	0.251
24	Atlanta	5	8	4.6	13	56	58	51	101	0.238
25	Arizona	4	9	4.65	2	64	65	46	105	0.277
26	San Diego	5	5	4.66	11	63	67	48	102	0.26
27	Texas	6	6	4.68	6	70	73	47	107	0.265
28	Colorado	5	6	4.84	9	66	71	37	112	0.276
29	Oakland	2	12	5.08	4	67	72	49	113	0.25
30	Cincinnati	6	6	5.17	7	59	61	47	104	0.256
LEAGUE AVERAGES		W	L	ERA	SV	ER	R	BB	SO	BAA
American League		6	5	3.44	11	45	51	42	107	0.232
National League		6	6	3.78	10	48	53	44	108	0.246
Major League Baseball		6	5	3.61	10	47	52	43	108	0.239

[Allure]

Cant believe what happened to the As bullpen. Used to be one oft the best in the game and now is one of the worst, if not the worst.

[posey]

2015 Regulars As bullpen:
CL - Clippard (2.65 ERA)
SU - Scribner (2.61 ERA)
SU - Rodriguez (6.00 ERA)
MR - Otero (3.38 ERA)
MR - Abad (5.91 ERA)

2014 Regulars As bullpen:
CL - Doolittle (2.73 ERA)
SU - Gregerson (2.12 ERA)
SU - Cook (3.42 ERA)
MR - Otero (2.28 ERA)
MR - Abad (1.57 ERA)

Otero and Abad being lucky last year and pitching a much better season then this year. Other guys are missing. That's it. As had a lot of luck with their BP previous seasons. Nearly every guy they threw in did work very well. It was only a matter of time until it would stop.

[stevenash]

Nasher - don't play Overs much, but I like the Over 7 in Cleveland-ChiSox tonight.
2 elite pitchers who have not shown much consistency this season. Kluber has been awful on the road and some Tribe hitters have had success vs Sale.
Wind blowing out straight to center at about 15 mph...Both pens not great.
Thoughts?

Raburn is a left handed pitchers nightmare.
In the DFS circut wwe call him a lefty killer.
The other batter that love to face lefties is the most underrated player in the game, and a top ten position player in the game. Brantley.
Brantley has not that much success off of Sale, but he feasts on LHP.
Carlos Santana pretty much eats up Sale, so does Swisher but he's washed up.
Kipnis hits .286 off of Sale, and likes LHP as well.

You can hit Sale, however, when he's on, like last game, forget about it.
But even his last start, he was lights out 11 K's, near flawless, he gave up that moonshot to the Brewers backup third baseman.
Point being, if you stay close to Sale, you can beat him. But we are talking over / under here, Sale can help your over wager because the Son's of Wahoo have a few that can go long. There is a reason Sale's ERA is over 5

On the flip side, you have your pride of Stetson University Mr. Kluber.
Now, if you put a little faith in BvP (do I really have to into my diatribe defending BvP's purpose) you will notice Jose Abreu owns Kluber. Someting about velocity of bat greeting 100 mph fastball and all that other happy horseshit. Abreu has that real violent swing and all. Melke has been known to hit Kluber, so has (one of my favorite lesser know players) Conor Gillespie and Av. Garcia too.

So, looking at a couple of angles, I would say yes, the over can be a play, but I woudn't bet it hard.
If you are 20 dollar a game shooter, I would say go 8, if you are a Benji a game shooter, I would say 40.
About 1/2 unit (little less) is what I would play it for.

Just went over to 5Dimes. The way I read this is the over 7 is juiced to the bejeesus, and usually, not often, but usually when you see a 5D total with a -110 juice in the reduced juice, the -110 sign usually prevails.
Not always, but usually.

OK, you talked me into it.
55 wins 50 reduced juice 5D

Stay away from the side, I think Chi has the pitching matcup, but I think Cleveland has the hitting matchup, I want to say Injuns for the game, but good pitching usually beats good hitting, but Abreu could be the factor there

<small>Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox</small>
Mon 5/18		911 Cleveland Indians C Kluber - R	<input id="editx" name="S1_46" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_46" name="altS1_46" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+½ -140</option><option value="1">-½ +140</option></select>	<input id="editx" name="M1_46" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +101 Listed	<input id="editx" name="L1_46" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altL1_46" name="altL1_46" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">o3½ -110</option><option value="1">o4 +125</option></select>
8:10PM		912 Chicago White Sox C Sale - L	<input id="editx" name="S2_46" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_46" name="altS2_46" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-½ +120</option><option value="1">+½ -160</option></select>	<input id="editx" name="M2_46" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -116 Listed	<input id="editx" name="L2_46" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altL2_46" name="altL2_46" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">u3½ -110</option><option value="1">u4 -145</option></select>

[RollinDo]

Nash - I am a big futures bettor and have made good profit on these overall in nba, mlb, nhl.

I locked in KC to win the AL for +650. I am surprised the odds are this nice for a team that has shown no signs of not making playoffs and continue to win series over some good clubs.
You gotta believe they at least make playoffs. Seattle is +750 to win it and not sure why.

[stevenash]

2015 Regulars As bullpen:
CL - Clippard (2.65 ERA)
SU - Scribner (2.61 ERA)
SU - Rodriguez (6.00 ERA)
MR - Otero (3.38 ERA)
MR - Abad (5.91 ERA)

2014 Regulars As bullpen:
CL - Doolittle (2.73 ERA)
SU - Gregerson (2.12 ERA)
SU - Cook (3.42 ERA)
MR - Otero (2.28 ERA)
MR - Abad (1.57 ERA)

Otero and Abad being lucky last year and pitching a much better season then this year. Other guys are missing. That's it. As had a lot of luck with their BP previous seasons. Nearly every guy they threw in did work very well. It was only a matter of time until it would stop.

I was looking at the Astro bullpen in detail, I have a buddy that works for the Astros (for real)
He says the front office is very proud of what they did there.
Behind the scenes (scouts etc.) assembled that group, and they are very proud of their work.

[RollinDo]

Raburn is a left handed pitchers nightmare.
In the DFS circut wwe call him a lefty killer.
The other batter that love to face lefties is the most underrated player in the game, and a top ten position player in the game. Brantley.
Brantley has not that much success off of Sale, but he feasts on LHP.
Carlos Santana pretty much eats up Sale, so does Swisher but he's washed up.
Kipnis hits .286 off of Sale, and likes LHP as well.

You can hit Sale, however, when he's on, like last game, forget about it.
But even his last start, he was lights out 11 K's, near flawless, he gave up that moonshot to the Brewers backup third baseman.
Point being, if you stay close to Sale, you can beat him. But we are talking over / under here, Sale can help your over wager because the Son's of Wahoo have a few that can go long. There is a reason Sale's ERA is over 5

On the flip side, you have your pride of Stetson University Mr. Kluber.
Now, if you put a little faith in BvP (do I really have to into my diatribe defending BvP's purpose) you will notice Jose Abreu owns Kluber. Someting about velocity of bat greeting 100 mph fastball and all that other happy horseshit. Abreu has that real violent swing and all. Melke has been known to hit Kluber, so has (one of my favorite lesser know players) Conor Gillespie and Av. Garcia too.

So, looking at a couple of angles, I would say yes, the over can be a play, but I woudn't bet it hard.
If you are 20 dollar a game shooter, I would say go 8, if you are a Benji a game shooter, I would say 40.
About 1/2 unit (little less) is what I would play it for.

Just went over to 5Dimes. The way I read this is the over 7 is juiced to the bejeesus, and usually, not often, but usually when you see a 5D total with a -110 juice in the reduced juice, the -110 sign usually prevails.
Not always, but usually.

OK, you talked me into it.
55 wins 50 reduced juice 5D

Stay away from the side, I think Chi has the pitching matcup, but I think Cleveland has the hitting matchup, I want to say Injuns for the game, but good pitching usually beats good hitting, but Abreu could be the factor there

<small>Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox</small>
Mon 5/18		911 Cleveland Indians C Kluber - R	<input id="editx" name="S1_46" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS1_46" name="altS1_46" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">+½ -140</option><option value="1">-½ +140</option></select>	<input id="editx" name="M1_46" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +101 Listed	<input id="editx" name="L1_46" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altL1_46" name="altL1_46" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">o3½ -110</option><option value="1">o4 +125</option></select>
8:10PM		912 Chicago White Sox C Sale - L	<input id="editx" name="S2_46" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altS2_46" name="altS2_46" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">-½ +120</option><option value="1">+½ -160</option></select>	<input id="editx" name="M2_46" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -116 Listed	<input id="editx" name="L2_46" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> <select id="altL2_46" name="altL2_46" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"><option value="0" selected="">u3½ -110</option><option value="1">u4 -145</option></select>

Not sure what you just bet on bro...Please inform.
Over 7??

I like the Under 9 in Colorado.
Mr. Hamels has pitched well at Coors his last 3 visits.

[stevenash]

Nash - I am a big futures bettor and have made good profit on these overall in nba, mlb, nhl.

I locked in KC to win the AL for +650. I am surprised the odds are this nice for a team that has shown no signs of not making playoffs and continue to win series over some good clubs.
You gotta believe they at least make playoffs. Seattle is +750 to win it and not sure why.

KC will live or die by their starters.

They can win everything even if Rios and Morales doesn't hit.
They can not win anything in post season if Volquez doesn't pitch well.

I love Ace Ventura, but he has a nutty head, and has limitted movement on that fast ball.
What did Crash Davis say in Bull Durham "Anybody can hit 100 mph cheese in the show"
Danny Duffy, love the guy, the pticher I don't love as much. He can get outs, but he can get shelled.

KC bullpen? The best in the business.
Defense? Also the best in the business. 4 guys play gold glove defense there.
Speed? They just don't have jack rabbit speed, they have disruptive speed. Speed that makes good defenses hurry up an make errors.

Rotation is the key.
Volquez better be good, because after him and Ventura, it's iffy.
Now Young is the 'x' factor, if the can keep getting outs like he has with that junk he throws for strikes, then yeah, it's KC and Detroit and everybody else in that division, if the starters faulter, KC struggles to get wild card #2.

Oh, by the way, just look at what this offense does to LHP
Holy Mother of God, that is some serious raking I tell you what?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/batting/_/name/kc/split/31/kansas-city-royals

But the starters, do you really want to go into a seven game, post season series war against, say an Angel lineup with this?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/stats/pitching/_/name/kc/split/127/kansas-city-royals

[stevenash]

Not sure what you just bet on bro...Please inform.
Over 7??

I like the Under 9 in Colorado.
Mr. Hamels has pitched well at Coors his last 3 visits.

I'll look at the Rox game is a second, I copied the wrong thing, hang on.

Mon 5/18		911 Cleveland Indians C Kluber - R	<input id="editx" name="S1_55" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +1½ -200		<input id="editx" name="L1_55" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> o7 -110
8:10PM		912 Chicago White Sox C Sale - L	<input id="editx" name="S2_55" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -1½ +185		<input id="editx" name="L2_55" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> u7 +100

Good catch fella.

[stevenash]

Afternoon play Angels -103 at Toronto

No time for long winded write up

Angels shoould hammer meatball Todd Redmond.

CJ Wilson, not my all time favorite, has been sharp all season.
Blue Jays like to hit LHP, but I love the pitching matchup.
Crafty veteran over the hamburger.

Angels are in play.

2* -103

[posey]

I was looking at the Astro bullpen in detail, I have a buddy that works for the Astros (for real)
He says the front office is very proud of what they did there.
Behind the scenes (scouts etc.) assembled that group, and they are very proud of their work.

You're talking about the Stros here since you mentioned them or the As? I think the Stros, right? If so I think their BP will regress sooner or later. None of their 6 qualified (according to stats) relievers (Deduno, Qualls, Gregerson, Sipp, Neshek, Harris) has a BABIP of higher than .257, 4 of them are below .230. They won't be able to hold that. Heck, Sipp (.200), Neshek (.189) and especially Harris (.118) had a ton of luck...

[stevenash]

I brought up Houston because of how
Astonishing well they've been after I posted the updated bull pen stats. Sorry, was having three conversations at once

[derekjeter8]

Nash i am a little confused did you take over 7 in the white sox game?

[stevenash]

Yes. Over 7. Not a big wager

[stevenash]

Now I remember why I hate CJ Wilson, every time I start him, he loses.

[stevenash]

Whoa, hang on here, wild pitch with the bases loaded makes it 4-2 now.

[mackave]

No time for long winded write up

Angels shoould hammer meatball Todd Redmond.

CJ Wilson, not my all time favorite, has been sharp all season.
Blue Jays like to hit LHP, but I love the pitching matchup.
Crafty veteran over the hamburger.

Angels are in play.

2* -103

Not a bad start for the angels bats

[stevenash]

Ianetta crushes a gap double to make it 4-3.
Ianetta is a big boy.

Here comes Cowgill.
Need more Cowgill.

[stevenash]

Signs of a good team, hurt the starting pitcher the second time aound the order.
Pujols, another big boy crushes a tater.
Game on!

[stevenash]

Not a bad start for the angels bats

Thanks for that input.
Much appreciated.

[Ra77er]

Steve sorry on the Tigers. I think I am more harm than good posting my plays in your thread. Keep up the work, I'll always lurk.

[stevenash]

Steve sorry on the Tigers. I think I am more harm than good posting my plays in your thread. Keep up the work, I'll always lurk.

Stick around, post away,what? Like I'm perfect?

Oh, Angels with two more to take a 5-4 lead.

[RollinDo]

So any take on that Phils-Rox (U 9) bud?

Going with O 7 in ChiSox game...I only bet 1 Over for every 20 Unders!

Small betpoints bet on Halos today too.
Like U 7 in NY Mets game, but for -155? No thanks

[stevenash]

^
Well you have to have Rox in your head to bet an under at Coors.
Over or pass.

FML
Angel bullpen blows my 5-4 lead.
Martin with a dunker for a 2 run single.

[mackave]

Was gonna go on the over but passed on it, looks good now . Oh well

[Ra77er]

Fair enough steve

I only see thin angles on the evening games tonight personally. I like Cleveland but I wish I could get a little better number than 107 at Heritage. Detroit looks good again to me tonight but I would only look towards RL or TT numbers if I were to bet it. Phils and the Cards game look pretty sharp to me.

I need to come up with a nice way to cap totals but I have been unsuccessful in seasons past. I tend to follow along here on your totals and look and see if you like a side that I do as well.

Nothing for me tonight unless I see a +110 or better on Cleveland. Good luck!

[KiDBaZkiT]

Donaldson yelling f you and dikk my dikk got those blue birds all fired up. You will prob see replays with his mouth censored later

[stevenash]

Fair enough steve

I only see thin angles on the evening games tonight personally. I like Cleveland but I wish I could get a little better number than 107 at Heritage. Detroit looks good again to me tonight but I would only look towards RL or TT numbers if I were to bet it. Phils and the Cards game look pretty sharp to me.

I need to come up with a nice way to cap totals but I have been unsuccessful in seasons past. I tend to follow along here on your totals and look and see if you like a side that I do as well.

Nothing for me tonight unless I see a +110 or better on Cleveland. Good luck!

Tonight is rough, I just looked at a shipload of numbers, crunched them every way, and walked away with nothing but a headache.

I put together two lineups, one with a K artist (Sale) the other with a minor league K artist (McCullers)

[stevenash]

Donaldson yelling f you and dikk my dikk got those blue birds all fired up. You will prob see replays with his mouth censored later

I saw the whole game, he's fiery, I try to like him, but can't.
Dude is going to get a Ventura or some other nut job pitcher a fastball in his ear

[Ra77er]

Cleveland +135 at Youwager is the only play for me. I'll root Sale to grab 14 K's but Sox defense allows a couple a runs to eek out a Tribe victory.

[stevenash]

Yeah, I'm playing Sale for the K factor, I think he can hang a 15 burger maybe 18 if he can grab a 'W'
But 7 innings 9K's = 16 2 ER = 14 burger.

Watch Bour go deep for my heavy sleeper hitter play (Marlins)

[jjgold]

Nashy tough card tonight

Mondays always tough

[stevenash]

^
Yeah, I came away with nothing but a migrane.
Have a small total play on the Sox, that's it.

[OckertCR]

Kluber is dealing