Rafa v joker on sun morning french final again

[homie1975]

Nadal always looks great until he gets to Joker..definitely a pickem if you look at last 6 matches or so on clay head to head

dont count best of 3 clay matches, Coach, only look at best of 5.

RAFA owns Joker in best of 5 matches, and matches at this venue

RAFA lives for the FRENCH

[Seto]

Coach, joker had a great claycourt season in 2012 and promptly lost to rafa in 4 sets at RG.

i think you should consider doing research before posting facts because clearly memory isn't your strong suit in all sports.

novak's "great" clay season was 2011, where he beat nadal in both madrid and rome. that year he lost to federer at RG.

in 2012 Nadal destroyed him 6-3 6-1 in Monte Carlo and beat him 7-5 6-3 in Rome. The only clay title Nadal didn't win that year was Madrid where he lost to Verdasco. Novak won 0 titles. So yeah, Nadal beating him at RG completely followed the logic of the whole clay season.

[jjgold]

What were the results of the last 6 to 8 Clay matches between the two ??

[Seto]

What were the results of the last 6 to 8 Clay matches between the two ??

2014

ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Rome Italy

Clay

F

Djokovic, Novak 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 Stats

2013	Roland Garros France	Clay	S	Nadal, Rafael 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-7(3), 9-7 Stats
2013	ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Monte Carlo Monaco	Clay	F	Djokovic, Novak 6-2, 7-6(1) Stats
2012	Roland Garros France	Clay	F	Nadal, Rafael 6-4, 6-3, 2-6, 7-5 Stats
2012	ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Rome Italy	Clay	F	Nadal, Rafael 7-5, 6-3 Stats
2012	ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Monte Carlo Monaco	Clay	F	Nadal, Rafael 6-3, 6-1 Stats

2011	ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Rome Italy	Clay	F	Djokovic, Novak 6-4, 6-4 Stats
2011	ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Madrid Spain	Clay	F	Djokovic, Novak 7-5, 6-4 Stats

[homie1975]

the 5dimes reduced line is RAFA -116 right now,

WOW WHAT A BARGAIN

now it's -120 reduced, regular line -125

[tipsadontlikehim]

For those who got Pinnacle, UNDER 44 @1.63 is a good play

I feel that this final won't go to 5 sets this time and in 4 sets that should do it

[BennyBigNuts]

I already hammered Nadal -115.
Also bet he wins 3-1 at +380.
That is a great price and easily doable in this match.

[Seto]

For those who got Pinnacle, UNDER 44 @1.63 is a good play

I feel that this final won't go to 5 sets this time and in 4 sets that should do it

Why are you buying points there? Afraid of a 7-6 6-4 4-6 6-4 type of score?

It doesn't seem worth it. That's a hell of a lot of juice. If you like the under I'd just go with the regular line and if it's 4 tight sets then so be it.

I somewhat agree about it not going 5. Who do you like to win the match? I think that could factor into the over/under decision. I have Novak winning in 4 but I wouldn't be surprised if it went 5.

[Seto]

I already hammered Nadal -115.
Also bet he wins 3-1 at +380.
That is a great price and easily doable in this match.

Those props are pretty good if you have a good feel for them yeah. I actually like 1-3 the other way lol.

I have an ongoing parlay of futures on Spurs +110 and Djokovic +160 that pays +446, probably just riding that out. If Djoker loses I'm gonna be pissed cause Spurs are almost unbettable at the current price so I won't really be able to reinvest in them.

[RGG]

Wouldn't want to bet against Rafa at the French; big on Nadal ML

[SirtySree]

Waiting for line to move up on Rafa. See this as quite an easy win as I have no clue whats wrong with Novak but he doesn't seem like himself this whole tourney.

Rafer to win in 4 sets and ML are the two I will most likely go with.

[RGG]

If you can get Rafa on clay at -120 or better it's a no brainer

[EaglesPhan36]

Not an injury that sapped Djokovic against Gulbis, he admitted the weather conditions were a bigger problem. Warmest day of the tournament although nothing really that hot at 80 degrees, but the humidity is probably what got him more. Remember the "old" Djokovic has had breathing problems in heavy climates before. Sunday is supposed to be similar to today. 80, rain and humid.

Always fun to read comments going into the Final because everyone thinks they have it figured out. Finals are often the toughest matches to win.

[poet]

EP, I watched his interview, and Novak sounded nasally. It seemed like he had a head cold. Mary Carillo said the same thing upon watching it. Who knows what the extent of it is or how it will affect him. It's too bad is all I can say. A healthy Novak wins this thing. Murray was terrible today and Ferrer, by his own admission, threw in the towel. I imagine if Novak is under the weather, winning the first set will be that much more important. I can see him winning the 1st (by playing very aggressively) but losing the match.

[Bumdeal]

Nadal future at +162.

Halep future at +475.

[homie1975]

EP, I watched his interview, and Novak sounded nasally. It seemed like he had a head cold. Mary Carillo said the same thing upon watching it. Who knows what the extent of it is or how it will affect him. It's too bad is all I can say. A healthy Novak wins this thing. Murray was terrible today and Ferrer, by his own admission, threw in the towel. I imagine if Novak is under the weather, winning the first set will be that much more important. I can see him winning the 1st (by playing very aggressively) but losing the match.

why? did a healthy Novak the past 2 years beat Rafa?

i don't understand how so many of you think the greatest clay player in history at age 28 and still playing at a high level, is good to bet against right now even with Joker.

RAFA is a clay GOD and an absolute machine. you do not bet against a machine. betting against Rafa at the French is like betting against MJ in his prime.

[sluggy1616]

Man Rafa won last 8 of 9 french opens. Pretty impressive

[poet]

I had Nadal in the US Open and everyone was on Djoker (as that was his surface). Sometimes you gotta go with your gut. Djoker has come close twice to beating Nadal in the French. In 2012 he was one raid delay away from steamrolling him and last year he faltered in a very close contest (up a break in the 5th). The great ones learn from their mistakes. In that US Open match where I had Nadal, Djoker was again about to steamroll him but Nadal, being the great competitor that he is, won all the big points and Nole crumbled. Since these demoralizing defeats, Novak has made adjustments to his game (when playing Nadal); adjustments that Nadal has had no answer for:

In their last 4 matches (3 HC 1 Clay) Novak has had 33 break opportunities (converting 14) and Nadal has had only 10 opportunities (converting 5). This is Djoker's moment. He can add the French to his collection and get sweet revenge against his rival. If Djoker is 100% healthy I have no doubt in my mind that he takes Nadal to the woodshed on Sunday (just look at what Ferrer did against him, and his WTA serves, in the two sets he tried) but fighting a bug and Nadal might be too much to ask.

[homie1975]

Looking at the last 4 matches when 3 were on hard court makes no sense. And a healthy joker taking rafa to the woodshed makes me lol. Maybe 3-2 joker but woodshed? No chance

[JustSomeCash]

Wow! I'm the only one who thinks that Novak may crush Rafa in straight sets?!...LOL..

Let's talk about the last two meetings between them, to me and to many others, Nadal was the favorite and the expectation was that he would win. (Slow-hard court in Miami & Slow-clay court in Rome). in Miami,Nole just outplay Rafa and beat the hell out of him in quick-stright sets,in Rome,where Rafa was fav even by the bookies he didnt manage to pull the win and lost again.

In that game,Nole had a slow start but he quickly settled into the surface, and managed to force his game plan on Nadal,and when he gets into gear, it was only a matter of time before he takes over the game, and we could say that Rafa was quite a bit lucky to pull out somehow the first set in the end,and although he led in one set to love, in a game where the winner has to be best of three sets, it was not enough for him.

And really, to me, the last two games have shown Novak knows perfectly Nadal's game plan and simply could do anything he want against Rafa,so if we go by the last two meetings, Nadal has no chance in five set! you can call me crazy who care,thas how it is for this time,can Rafa prove otherwise? We will see ..

[kenz]

...

[kenz]

Nobody can sweep Nadal when he has that forehand.

Miami and Rome has nothing to do with Roland Garros. In Rome weather was cold, here it is projected to be hot. Balls are different, the ambiance is different, the format is different (5 sets) everything is different.

I am on Novak @2.75 but does not feel good at all about it.

[SirtySree]

Wow! I'm the only one who thinks that Novak may crush Rafa in straight sets?!...LOL..

Let's talk about the last two meetings between them, to me and to many others, Nadal was the favorite and the expectation was that he would win. (Slow-hard court in Miami & Slow-clay court in Rome). in Miami,Nole just outplay Rafa and beat the hell out of him in quick-stright sets,in Rome,where Rafa was fav even by the bookies he didnt manage to pull the win and lost again.

In that game,Nole had a slow start but he quickly settled into the surface, and managed to force his game plan on Nadal,and when he gets into gear, it was only a matter of time before he takes over the game, and we could say that Rafa was quite a bit lucky to pull out somehow the first set in the end,and although he led in one set to love, in a game where the winner has to be best of three sets, it was not enough for him.

And really, to me, the last two games have shown Novak knows perfectly Nadal's game plan and simply could do anything he want against Rafa,so if we go by the last two meetings, Nadal has no chance in five set! you can call me crazy who care,thas how it is for this time,can Rafa prove otherwise? We will see ..

Many things to pick out from that post. Nadal was way out of form in the previous two encounters and the surface in both are playing way differently. Looking at this tournament alone, Novak is playing terrible for his standards whereas Nadal looks like he is back to normal. Can't remember the last time I saw Novak face so many break points and make so many uncharacteristic errors around the net and with passing shots which is his trademark. Another thing is that Nadal wasn't the favourite in the previous two encounters if I remember correctly but could be wrong on that.

Can Novak win in 3 sets? Highly unlikely unless Nadal somehow goes back to how he played earlier in the year and Novak suddenly plays great again.

Had Novak past two encounters but going with Nadal this time and I'm more confident then the previous two wins by quite a large margin.

[jjgold]

As of now by reading everybody's posts I have a slight lean towards Nadal

[RGG]

Man Rafa won last 8 of 9 french opens. Pretty impressive

exactly why I'm not betting against Rafa

[GoBlue77]

Wow! I'm the only one who thinks that Novak may crush Rafa in straight sets?!...LOL..

Let's talk about the last two meetings between them, to me and to many others, Nadal was the favorite and the expectation was that he would win. (Slow-hard court in Miami & Slow-clay court in Rome). in Miami,Nole just outplay Rafa and beat the hell out of him in quick-stright sets,in Rome,where Rafa was fav even by the bookies he didnt manage to pull the win and lost again.

In that game,Nole had a slow start but he quickly settled into the surface, and managed to force his game plan on Nadal,and when he gets into gear, it was only a matter of time before he takes over the game, and we could say that Rafa was quite a bit lucky to pull out somehow the first set in the end,and although he led in one set to love, in a game where the winner has to be best of three sets, it was not enough for him.

And really, to me, the last two games have shown Novak knows perfectly Nadal's game plan and simply could do anything he want against Rafa,so if we go by the last two meetings, Nadal has no chance in five set! you can call me crazy who care,thas how it is for this time,can Rafa prove otherwise? We will see ..

clueless...

[frugalgambler]

I have Novak +190 futures, and I already hedged with Rafa@+170 before QF, and I am gonna add some more on Rafa@-120 and Rafa 3-1. I just do not understand how he can be not a -150 fav in this spot. The dude is just unreal at RG. I mean, I would love to see Novak get his career GS, but Nadal looked as good as ever over his last two matches.

[Pauulzcappin]

I have Novak +190 futures, and I already hedged with Rafa@+170 before QF, and I am gonna add some more on Rafa@-120 and Rafa 3-1. I just do not understand how he can be not a -150 fav in this spot. The dude is just unreal at RG. I mean, I would love to see Novak get his career GS, but Nadal looked as good as ever over his last two matches.

line looks very fishy, doesn't it?

[matt1216]

Wow! I'm the only one who thinks that Novak may crush Rafa in straight sets?!...LOL..

Let's talk about the last two meetings between them, to me and to many others, Nadal was the favorite and the expectation was that he would win. (Slow-hard court in Miami & Slow-clay court in Rome). in Miami,Nole just outplay Rafa and beat the hell out of him in quick-stright sets,in Rome,where Rafa was fav even by the bookies he didnt manage to pull the win and lost again.

In that game,Nole had a slow start but he quickly settled into the surface, and managed to force his game plan on Nadal,and when he gets into gear, it was only a matter of time before he takes over the game, and we could say that Rafa was quite a bit lucky to pull out somehow the first set in the end,and although he led in one set to love, in a game where the winner has to be best of three sets, it was not enough for him.

And really, to me, the last two games have shown Novak knows perfectly Nadal's game plan and simply could do anything he want against Rafa,so if we go by the last two meetings, Nadal has no chance in five set! you can call me crazy who care,thas how it is for this time,can Rafa prove otherwise? We will see ..

FNG

[frugalgambler]

Nope the lines is not fishy, lots of people are putting too much weight into Nadal's problems at the recent clay court tourneys and into his recent loss to Novak @ Rome. Novak still has a good chance, and I am not hedging in a way that I do not win anything if Nadal loses, but I hedged in a way that I get a 60/40 split on Nadal/Djoker.

[brodie]

makes no sense that djok was the favorite the whole tourney and then when the line came out for the final, rafa was the favorite. all because of what? djok losing a set to gulby? or him being sick? Lol, he's fine and he will beat nadal in 5

[beermankirk]

Rafa +2.5 sets gone -550 to -650 now at pinny,

and -700 at 5d for not Djoker in 3 sets

[jjgold]

Remember Joker had him at French a few years back but the rain came and a delay of match turned the tides and nadal won

[brodie]

you guys keep bringing up past french finals, but (to me) theyre not even note worthy. we just saw novak beat nadal on clay, this is his year to end the run

take the dog, last warning

[GoBlue77]

you guys keep bringing up past french finals, but (to me) theyre not even note worthy. we just saw novak beat nadal on clay, this is his year to end the run

take the dog, last warning

so past french opens don't count but recent tourneys where Rafa was playing poor(by his standards)do count lol. easy to skew things in your favor when u want to.