Final Four Best Bets: Taking a Chance
Final Four Best Bets: Taking a Chance
While a lot of the public spend a good portion of today arguing at the water cooler about the tournament seedings, sharp handicappers know that what's done is done and there is no sense wasting time discussing what could've been. The current field will be cut to a quarter its size by this time next week, and picking the survivors to make it to the Final Four is hot 'n heavy on everyone's mind.
When picking schools to get to the Final Four, you have to give yourself some criteria. Otherwise you’ll drive yourself mad with all the possible permutations.
While I won’t go too far into the combination of quantitative and qualitative factors I use to cull the field, one rule of thumb I like despite last year’s evidence to the contrary is my guideline regarding No. 1 seeds: At least two of them are going to lose.
I know all of the No. 1s made it to the national semifinals last time we went dancing, but I’ll remind bettors it was the first time it ever happened. Who’s going down this year? More importantly, who’s booking a ticket to Ford Field?
South
Let’s start with North Carolina, which is once again the favorite to cut down the nets at most sportsbooks after failing to live up to the status in each of the last two years.
Are there any factors that would allow the Tar Heels to be upset on their way to Detroit? Absolutely. Ty Lawson’s bum toe is reason number one, two, and three, and if you don’t think it matters you didn’t see UNC lose to Florida State in the ACC tournament semifinals with Lawson on the sidelines.
With Lawson banged up or out of the lineup, No. 2 Oklahoma could knock off North Carolina. Blake Griffin is the most dominant force in college hoops, and he can certainly match up with Tyler Hansbrough. Problem is, sophomore-freshman combos (Griffin and Willie Warren) don’t normally carry a team to the Final Four.
If the Heels and Sooners are out on my card, who’s in? How about No. 6 Arizona State? James Harden is the next coming of Brandon Roy and Jeff Pendergraph could be this year’s David Padgett in the post.
Pick: Arizona State
Midwest
Louisville is the No. 1 team in the nation in the eyes of the selection committee and is accordingly the top seed in the Midwest. The Cardinals have the all the ingredients to go all the way, including a balanced attack led by Earl Clark, Terrence Williams, and Samardo Samuels.
It’s hard to bet against No. 2 Michigan State in the bottom half of the bracket because of their defense, but Ohio State exposed the Spartans in the Big Ten tourney. If there’s any school that’s going to challenge Louisville it’s No. 4 Wake Forest, which has a scoring point guard in Jeff Teague and enough in the paint to keep the Cards off the glass.
It won’t be enough.
Pick: Louisville
West
Who will Louisville play at Ford Field? The answer lies in the West Regional, where fellow-Big East rival Connecticut is the top seed.
You shouldn’t fade the Huskies just because of Syracuse’s heroics in the instant classic six-OT game, and if Jerome Dyson were healthy I’d go on the record to say UConn would win the national championship. Thing is, Dyson isn’t ready, so I don’t know if the Huskies have the crunch-time scoring to beat an excellent team when the chips are down.
I’m torn between No. 2 Memphis, No. 3 Missouri, and No. 4 Washington in the West. Washington looks like a sharp pick, but Isaiah Thomas is a freshman. I like Mizzou’s uptempo pace and ability to take care of the ball, but they just aren’t ready.
There’s something about Memphis right now, and while Tyreke Evans is no Derrick Rose, this year’s Tigers are much better at the charity stripe. A bit of a pick from the gut here, but…
Pick: Memphis
East
The East Regional is by far the deepest bracket in terms of talented teams, and it’s not even close. 11 of the 16 schools in this section of Tournament were at one point ranked in the national polls during the season. Good luck handicapping this show.
No. 1 Pittsburgh is the class of the East, and after all the smoke clears the Panthers could go head-to-head with No. 2 Duke in the Regional Final in Boston. I’ll predict this to be the best game in the Big Dance aesthetically, with Pitt taking advantage inside and the Blue Devils bombing away from downtown.
DeJuan Blair’s presence in the paint will be the difference against an undermanned Duke frontline, and the Panthers will win going away after Kyle Singler fouls out.
Pick: Pittsburgh
While a lot of the public spend a good portion of today arguing at the water cooler about the tournament seedings, sharp handicappers know that what's done is done and there is no sense wasting time discussing what could've been. The current field will be cut to a quarter its size by this time next week, and picking the survivors to make it to the Final Four is hot 'n heavy on everyone's mind.
When picking schools to get to the Final Four, you have to give yourself some criteria. Otherwise you’ll drive yourself mad with all the possible permutations.
While I won’t go too far into the combination of quantitative and qualitative factors I use to cull the field, one rule of thumb I like despite last year’s evidence to the contrary is my guideline regarding No. 1 seeds: At least two of them are going to lose.
I know all of the No. 1s made it to the national semifinals last time we went dancing, but I’ll remind bettors it was the first time it ever happened. Who’s going down this year? More importantly, who’s booking a ticket to Ford Field?
South
Let’s start with North Carolina, which is once again the favorite to cut down the nets at most sportsbooks after failing to live up to the status in each of the last two years.
Are there any factors that would allow the Tar Heels to be upset on their way to Detroit? Absolutely. Ty Lawson’s bum toe is reason number one, two, and three, and if you don’t think it matters you didn’t see UNC lose to Florida State in the ACC tournament semifinals with Lawson on the sidelines.
With Lawson banged up or out of the lineup, No. 2 Oklahoma could knock off North Carolina. Blake Griffin is the most dominant force in college hoops, and he can certainly match up with Tyler Hansbrough. Problem is, sophomore-freshman combos (Griffin and Willie Warren) don’t normally carry a team to the Final Four.
If the Heels and Sooners are out on my card, who’s in? How about No. 6 Arizona State? James Harden is the next coming of Brandon Roy and Jeff Pendergraph could be this year’s David Padgett in the post.
Pick: Arizona State
Midwest
Louisville is the No. 1 team in the nation in the eyes of the selection committee and is accordingly the top seed in the Midwest. The Cardinals have the all the ingredients to go all the way, including a balanced attack led by Earl Clark, Terrence Williams, and Samardo Samuels.
It’s hard to bet against No. 2 Michigan State in the bottom half of the bracket because of their defense, but Ohio State exposed the Spartans in the Big Ten tourney. If there’s any school that’s going to challenge Louisville it’s No. 4 Wake Forest, which has a scoring point guard in Jeff Teague and enough in the paint to keep the Cards off the glass.
It won’t be enough.
Pick: Louisville
West
Who will Louisville play at Ford Field? The answer lies in the West Regional, where fellow-Big East rival Connecticut is the top seed.
You shouldn’t fade the Huskies just because of Syracuse’s heroics in the instant classic six-OT game, and if Jerome Dyson were healthy I’d go on the record to say UConn would win the national championship. Thing is, Dyson isn’t ready, so I don’t know if the Huskies have the crunch-time scoring to beat an excellent team when the chips are down.
I’m torn between No. 2 Memphis, No. 3 Missouri, and No. 4 Washington in the West. Washington looks like a sharp pick, but Isaiah Thomas is a freshman. I like Mizzou’s uptempo pace and ability to take care of the ball, but they just aren’t ready.
There’s something about Memphis right now, and while Tyreke Evans is no Derrick Rose, this year’s Tigers are much better at the charity stripe. A bit of a pick from the gut here, but…
Pick: Memphis
East
The East Regional is by far the deepest bracket in terms of talented teams, and it’s not even close. 11 of the 16 schools in this section of Tournament were at one point ranked in the national polls during the season. Good luck handicapping this show.
No. 1 Pittsburgh is the class of the East, and after all the smoke clears the Panthers could go head-to-head with No. 2 Duke in the Regional Final in Boston. I’ll predict this to be the best game in the Big Dance aesthetically, with Pitt taking advantage inside and the Blue Devils bombing away from downtown.
DeJuan Blair’s presence in the paint will be the difference against an undermanned Duke frontline, and the Panthers will win going away after Kyle Singler fouls out.
Pick: Pittsburgh