2013 Kentucky Derby Future Pool #1

[sweep]

Below is the list of odds for the 1st of 3 future pools for this years Ketucky Derby. "All Others" is currently 9-5 favorite.

KDFW: Pool 1

1. Capo Bastone	30-1
2. Code West	50-1
3. Delhomme	30-1
4. Den's Legacy	30-1
5. Dynamic Sky	30-1
6. Falling Sky	30-1
7. Flashback	15-1
8. Frac Daddy	50-1
9. Goldencents	20-1
10. He's Had Enough	50-1
11. Itsmyluckyday	15-1
12. Mylute	30-1
13. Normandy Invasion	20-1
14. Overanalyze	15-1
15. Oxbow	20-1
16. Revolutionary	20-1
17. Shanghai Bobby	12-1
18. Super Ninety Nine	20-1
19. Uncaptured	20-1
20. Verrazano	15-1
21. Violence	12-1
22. Vyjack	20-1
23. Will Take Charge	30-1
24. All Others

[Easy-Rider 66]

Beyer speed figures is not the end all and still a lot of running to do. But Violence has one of the lowest top Beyers at 92, and is the favorite along with Shanghai Bobby. Usually avoid this type of wager, because you are SOL if the horse does not run in the Derby.

[sweep]

Beyer speed figures is not the end all and still a lot of running to do. But Violence has one of the lowest top Beyers at 92, and is the favorite along with Shanghai Bobby. Usually avoid this type of wager, because you are SOL if the horse does not run in the Derby.

Yeah I hear ya on that. Wouldnt be a bad Pool if your bet just canceled if said horse dosnt run, I must say that anything under 20-1 is a really bad bet, who fuckin knows what could happen to a horse 4 months before the race. Shit 20-1 might even be -ev, Mucho bragging rights if you smoke out the winner in the 1st pool though.

[mikemca]

24. All Others

[mikemca]

The Wynn in vegas has odds on just about all the 3 year olds.

Like these the most

Balance The Books opened at 175-1 now 75-1
Footbridge 125-1
Mac The Man 125-1
Tiz The Truth 125-1

[Chi_archie]

Thanks for this!

Boy do am I starting to love Horse Racing.

Can't wait to get out to Arlington again this summer, much better than when I used to slum it at Hawthorne.

at this point, I think I like Normandy Invasion or Violence.

[str]

Typically, the field ( all others) is the play in pool # 1 IMO.

[mrginandtonic]

Typically, the field ( all others) is the play in pool # 1 IMO.

I agree. Although a friend of mine got 60/1 on Itsmyluckyday in Vegas for the future. I think that's pretty good odds.

[sweep]

FYI- This 1st pool opens for wagers Feb. 8th (tomorrow), not sure when it closes...Maybe someone could chime in

[str]

FYI- This 1st pool opens for wagers Feb. 8th (tomorrow), not sure when it closes...Maybe someone could chime in

I think it used to be open from a Friday through that weekend, so three days, but do not know for sure

[str]

I think it used to be open from a Friday through that weekend, so three days, but do not know for sure

Confirmed.

Wagering into the first of the traditional three pools opens Friday at noon Eastern and closes Sunday at 6 p.m.

[mikemca]

Typically, the field ( all others) is the play in pool # 1 IMO.

Especially this year given the new points system is in place for the first time.Usually you have several horses that are already guaranteed a spot in the gate by now but not one horse has the points needed yet.

ALL OTHERS is 9-5 right now but should probably be 1-9 given that most of the Kentucky Derby field isn't even on that list

[BGboothA]

HesHadEnough @ 50-1 is interesting, as is Dynamic Sky at 30-1.

But I just can't put anything down on these guys with so much racing to go. And this new point system makes it pure craziness to bet here, your basically betting on a horse that has to win 2 maybe 3 more major races in the next three months.

[str]

Especially this year given the new points system is in place for the first time.Usually you have several horses that are already guaranteed a spot in the gate by now but not one horse has the points needed yet.

ALL OTHERS is 9-5 right now but should probably be 1-9 given that most of the Kentucky Derby field isn't even on that list

Very good point Mike. The new system I would think might very well help the "all others" selection by eliminating some of those mentioned that ordinarily might have started.

Oh my, it seems like I might venture over to Laurel this weekend.

Lol.

[Louisvillekid1]

Solid thread

[MrBrown]

Very good point Mike. The new system I would think might very well help the "all others" selection by eliminating some of those mentioned that ordinarily might have started.

Oh my, it seems like I might venture over to Laurel this weekend.

Lol.

Maybe when you go over there you'll get the itch to train again? lol
My buddy and I cashed a whole lotta tickets on you back in the mid '70's all the way thru the '80's.
Consistent was the word!

[str]

Maybe when you go over there you'll get the itch to train again? lol
My buddy and I cashed a whole lotta tickets on you back in the mid '70's all the way thru the '80's.
Consistent was the word!

Mr. Brown, that is as high a compliment as you ever could have paid me. I thank you.
I was such a big proponent of the horse player when I started doing well enough to have a voice that could be heard. Not coming from a horse family but a gambling family, I always was the young voice in a room filled with older people and always telling anyone that would listen that we are only as good as our worst story in the eyes of the player. Few wanted to listen but when Frank De. bought the tracks he too was of the same mindset.
Watching trainers consistently have 18% winners and place percentages and 5-6% show percentages , especially when the trizacta or triple was launched was disgraceful IMO and while not being able to FIX that problem, I most certainly opened peoples eyes to the fact that it existed, and as a result, at least slowed it somewhat. ( It never slowed Leather down though).
I took tremendous pride in running to form and while that thought process might have cost me to lose horses that I might have been able to keep and win with down the road, it was the only way to play the game IMO. Winning the % title as many times as I did but not the training title was fine with me. When Frank De. owned Laurel he made a big deal about that, giving the leading trainer a trophy and the leading % trainer a 1,000.00 check at several meets.I still have my picture of Mr. De. presenting it to me and it meant more to me than I could ever properly put into words.
Thanks again Mr. Brown ! It would be an honor to meet you at the races one day.

[trytrytry]

	177,407
99	1,190	1%	-		-
99	1,360	1%	-		-
99	1,216	1%	-		-
99	789	0%	-		-
99	1,118	1%	-		-
99	913	1%	-		-
19	7,426	4%	-		-
99	1,438	1%	-		-
11	12,010	7%	-		-
78	1,873	1%	-		-
19	7,165	4%	-		-
99	486	0%	-		-
26	5,465	3%	-		-
65	2,252	1%	-		-
48	3,002	2%	-		-
8	14,906	8%	-		-
9	14,041	8%	-		-
93	1,575	1%	-		-
90	1,631	1%	-		-
8	15,427	9%	-		-
9	13,653	8%	-		-
94	1,554	1%	-		-
99	1,394	1%	-		-
6/5	65,525	37%	-		-
	177,407

[sweep]

With the conclusion of Friday wagering, the field – the 24th or “all others” option – was the 6-5 favorite. Next was the Pletcher foursome, all of them at single-digit odds: Verrazano (7-1), Revolutionary (8-1), Shanghai Bobby (8-1), and Violence (9-1). They were followed by Goldencents (10-1), Itsmyluckyday (21-1), and Flashback (22-1).

[trytrytry]

that was thelive pool at this moment in post #28..granted it will change a ton its early.. I dont think any of these horses run this weekend at all. (except field horses)

but still the pot will get much bigger..I think field will dip to EVEN money..which trust me is HORRIBE value, dont believe all the chatter in this thread that with the new system the FIELD here in pool on should be 1/9..case that is not true.

[Slimpickens]

If I was into having money tied up for 3 months I would be all over the field here. Bet only 5 or 6 from this list even make the derby.

[trytrytry]

If I was into having money tied up for 3 months I would be all over the field here. Bet only 5 or 6 from this list even make the derby.

you would lose that bet...

[sweep]

that was thelive pool at this moment in post #28..granted it will change a ton its early.. I dont think any of these horses run this weekend at all. (except field horses)

but still the pot will get much bigger..I think field will dip to EVEN money..which trust me is HORRIBE value, dont believe all the chatter in this thread that with the new system the FIELD here in pool on should be 1/9..case that is not true.

I was reading on DRF that the "Field" option has won the Derby 6 of last 14....Not that great at the low odds IMO. I believe there is a few big races today but Im still looking. Just woke up. GL

[Slimpickens]

you would lose that bet...

Maybe but this year especially seems more wide open than it usually is. My top 3 picks for the derby right now arent on the list so...

[trytrytry]

Maybe but this year especially seems more wide open than it usually is. My top 3 picks for the derby right now arent on the list so...

always a great time of year..

[str]

FUTURE WAGER

The first of three pools of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager will run from February 10-12, Churchill Downs said on Wednesday. The second pool will take place March 2-4 and the third pool will be from March 30-April 1. There also will be a single-pool Kentucky Oaks Future Wager from March 2-4. Both the Kentucky Derby Future Wager and Kentucky Oaks Future Wager will feature win and exacta betting.
Betting for each pool will open at noon EST on Friday and close at 6:30 p.m. on Sunday, 30 minutes after the conclusion of betting. Each pool will feature 23 individual wagering interests and one mutuel field, or "all others," interest. All bets are $2 minimum wagers. No refunds will be made and if illness, injury, or other circumstance would prevent a horse from competing in either race, wagering on that betting interest will be suspended immediately.
The Kentucky Derby Future Wager, now in its 14th year, will lead to the 138th running of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1) on May 5 at Churchill Downs.


Pool 1

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Handle History

2011	$592,492	$376,699	$392,910	$1,362,101
2010	$466,048	$355,853	$310,154	$1,132,055
2009	$478,721	$380,420	$377,158	$1,236,299
2008	$439,379	$325,306	$291,835	$1,056,520
2007	$520,688	$379,613	$465,123	$1,365,424
2006	$552,627	$464,236	$454,743	$1,471,606
2005	$620,362	$511,655	$533,973	$1,665,990
2004	$536,958	$358,996	$386,224	$1,282,168
2003	$516,906	$391,002	$222,261	$1,130,169
2002	$577,889	$401,070	$524,847	$1,503,806
2001	$510,815	$372,961	$425,871	$1,309,647
2000	$465,454	$306,259	$387,206	$1,158,919
1999	$267,748	$178,811	$229,674	$676,233

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Payout History

2011	Animal Kingdom	$6.20 (f) *	$9.40 (f) *	$64.40	$43.80
2010	Super Saver	$43.20	$51.20	$73.00	$18.00
2009	Mine That Bird	$5.80 (f) *	$11.80 (f) *	$36.80 (f)	$103.20
2008	Big Brown	$8.60 (f) *	$15.00 (f)	$8.60 *	$6.80
2007	Street Sense	$22.80	$18.20	$15.40	$11.80
2006	Barbaro	$40.20	$32.20	$20.80	$14.20
2005	Giacomo	$52.00	$54.20	$103.60	$102.60
2004	Smarty Jones	$5.60 (f)	$10.80 (f)	$23.60	$10.20
2003	Funny Cide	$188.00	$120.80	$107.40	$27.60
2002	War Emblem	$7.60 (f) *	$16.00 (f)	$24.00 (f)	$43.00
2001	Monarchos	$36.60	$13.00	$15.80	$23.00
2000	Fusaichi Pegasus	$27.80	$26.40	$8.00 *	$6.60
1999	Charismatic	$10.20 (f) *	$30.20 (f)	$26.60 (f)	$64.60

(f) - mutual field; * - favorite


This chart will help players understand the logic of why all others has been a decent play over the years. Over the years it has shown a very modest yet positive payoff. Some will point to the 1st year of existence when many players did not grasp the concept yet as the reason it has been able to show a profit. ( Do realize that this chart is a year old and last years winner I am almost positive was NOT in any field plays . If true, a -6.00 amount should be added to the total based on a 2.00 wager in each pool each year.
The bottom line though is if you are gaining interest in the game, a safe way to play and learn( always a dangerous mix) is to play the field pools and learn all you can each year.You won't get rich but you won't go broke either and can only improve your skills by following along. At least, that is the idea.
I will say that 6-5 as it currently stands is not much of a payoff and for me, I might be tempted to wait and play pool 2 and 3 which usually produce a much better price. Then again, you might have identified a longshot of your own by then.

Best of Luck.

[mikemca]

that was thelive pool at this moment in post #28..granted it will change a ton its early.. I dont think any of these horses run this weekend at all. (except field horses)

but still the pot will get much bigger..I think field will dip to EVEN money..which trust me is HORRIBE value, dont believe all the chatter in this thread that with the new system the FIELD here in pool on should be 1/9..case that is not true.

I think everyone but you realized the 1/9 was an exaggeration made to emphasize that 9-5 was an overlay.

[JohnnyBrooklyn]

HesHadEnough @ 50-1 is interesting, as is Dynamic Sky at 30-1.

But I just can't put anything down on these guys with so much racing to go. And this new point system makes it pure craziness to bet here, your basically betting on a horse that has to win 2 maybe 3 more major races in the next three months.

IM on HHENOUGH 50-1!!

[cbiscuit]

Just to get involved I put $5 on Den's Legacy, the angle is the 'other' Baffert horse. Not feeling it for Flashback anyway. WIth BB he might end up with another in the spotlight before May.

[TravisVOX]

I actually think the field was a stronger bet this year than in the past because of the new points system for making it to the race. Whereas horses in the past had guaranteed spots because of purse winnings in prior races, this year it's based on recency and the last two rounds of prep races are worth more points - the new criteria for getting in the gate.

[stevenash]

Verazano !

[EmpireMaker]

I actually think the field was a stronger bet this year than in the past because of the new points system for making it to the race. Whereas horses in the past had guaranteed spots because of purse winnings in prior races, this year it's based on recency and the last two rounds of prep races are worth more points - the new criteria for getting in the gate.

Absolutely !!!

[ProPicker713]

Flashback will upset most this year, best fukkin speed horse and closer in this race, at the top of the stretch he will pull away and win the run for the roses!

[mikemca]

If I was into having money tied up for 3 months I would be all over the field here. Bet only 5 or 6 from this list even make the derby.

Orb and I've Struck A Nerve move into #1 and #2 on the Kentucky Derby points list giving them a spot in the gate as part of All Others.Plus you can eliminate at least 5 or 6 horses that were listed as options that ran like allowance horses and another 5 or 6, if not more, that have a hiccup in training or get injured.That would leave 10-14 horses with a chance of even being in the field ,let alone win.

Can't believe the field was 8-5.

[Jeffie]

Flashback will upset most this year, best fukkin speed horse and closer in this race, at the top of the stretch he will pull away and win the run for the roses!

My friend owns a horse who raced against flashback, He's gonna be very tough to beat. Heshadenough does not have what it takes to beat this kinda field so I'm canceling him out