El Niño's NHL Thread

[Vegas39]

Great night niño

[El Nino]

Thanks, boys. Was sweating those last few minutes hard.

[Vegas39]

Thanks, boys. Was sweating those last few minutes hard.

was with you on that

[El Nino]

Still confused on why the books never hung a 4 line for the Over/Under in this series. Under was $.

[Vegas39]

Still confused on why the books never hung a 4 line for the Over/Under in this series. Under was $.

Was actually bumped up tonight

[El Nino]

Was actually bumped up tonight

I know, saw a lot of people liking over 4.5 and just shook my head. Books had no clue on this series for totals just like they had no clue on Flyers/Penguins or Rangers/Capitals last year.

[Vegas39]

Funny last 5 teams left are last 5 cup winners

[El Nino]

Funny last 5 teams left are last 5 cup winners

That's pretty cool.

[El Nino]

2nd Round Playoff Series

Chicago Blackhawks Series (-290) 5.8u to win 2u


Added: San Jose Sharks Series (+130)

Added: Boston Bruins Series (-125) 2.5u to win 2u

2nd Round Exact Series Outcome

Chicago Blackhawks Win 4-2 (+270)
Pittsburgh Penguins Win 4-2 (+270)
Boston Bruins Win 4-2 (+360)

2nd Round Total Games Played In Series

New York Rangers/Boston Bruins 6 Games (+125)

Blackhawks series price dropped. Added: Blackhawks Series (-265) 5.3u to win 2u

1-5 -3u on Series and Exact Results/Games Played Bets for the 2nd Round.

Pending: Chicago Blackhawks Series 11.1u to win 4u

So basically, I have 11.1u @ -278 to win 4u on the Blackhawks to win Game 7. I'm seeing the Blackhawks between -210 and -230 at the moment. This is obviously a bad situation as in normally you place a series wager looking for early value and can act accordingly as the series progresses. With Chicago slumping early in this series and now it being Game 7, there haven't been many opportunities to counteract this bad price I am currently saddled with.

I see it as having two options:

1.) Let the bet ride and hope Chicago shows up like they did in the 3rd period of Game 6 and put away Detroit at the Mad House on Madison. If Chicago wins, I win 4u on the Blackhawks Series and 1u overall on the 2nd Round Series and Exact Results/Games Played Bets. If Chicago loses, I lose 11.1u on the Blackhawks Series and 14.1u on the 2nd Round Series and Exact Results/Games Played Bets. This would effectively put me in the red for the playoffs and back to where I ended the season.

2.) Bet Detroit at +190 or +195ish depending on how the line moves tomorrow and take a small loss. Betting Detroit 5.85u at +190 would win 11.11u. If Detroit wins, this bet would cover all the units I have invested in the Blackhawks Series and I would break even on the series and lose 3 units overall . If Chicago wins, then I lose 1.85u units on the Blackhawks Series and 4.85u on the 2nd Round Series and Exact Results/Games Played Bets.

Fitguy, Vegas39, Rocket, Donuts check in...advice?

I hate having a bad line but I really feel like the Blackhawks take care of business and move on. However, it seems irresponsible to throw away a month's worth of profits on one deciding game. One errant bounce, turnover, penalty can be the deciding factor in a Game 7. I looked at the Redwings +1.5 and the total for the game, I see no other way of hedging out. It also doesn't make sense to throw 4 or less units on the Redwings because if the Redwings win, I'm still out around 3.5u on the series and 6.5u overall on the 2nd Round Series and Exact Results/Games Played Bets.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Interesting scenario and EXACTLY the scenario I am in....fortunately for me I only have $255 to win $100 on the game.....frankly that's not enough $$$ to get me too motivated. For you there is more at stake obviously, so I would suggest a half a hedge.

I think you put down approximately 3 units on the Wings, lessening the blow if the Hawks blow the game but making sure that you still see some profit if/when (and I think the Hawks will win this game) the Hawks cash it.

I know this is simplistic, but you are right, you are in at an awful price (but it sure feels better than it did when they were down 3-1) and there is no good way out.....only a safer way.


Cheers and I hope you win (in a completely and utterly selfish way of course)


D2D

[Russian Rocket]

Nino I would take your 1st scenario at this point and just let it ride. You already made a nice chunk on other games in the playoffs, so you have some wiggle room for risky bets like this. If you were losing money in the playoffs, I would of probably take scenario #2 to minimize further losses. Also with Chicago playing at home and currently is on two game winning streak...all the odds are in your favor brother.

GL pal

[Vegas39]

I'd let it ride buddy

[BIGDAY]

Nino! I'll root er in for ya!

[BIGDAY]

Could be a bad thing if I root er in though...

I'm SBR's biggest mush..

Maybe I'll throw a unit on the Wings. Then you'll be safe!

[Vegas39]

Nino! I'll root er in for ya!

Oh shit hedge hedge hedge

[El Nino]

Nino! I'll root er in for ya!

Oh shit hedge hedge hedge

[odog11]

I have Chicago for the series straight up and to close out a parlay. I hedged the last game by playing Detroit over 2.5 at +130. Was better than the ML and figured they don't win if they don't score 3 and some chance that it hits and Chicago wins. It was a little unnerving heading into the third with Detroit up 2-1 and a little lucky to have this hit and Chicago win.

Tonight I might play most of what I will win if Chicago wins on Detroit over 1.5 at -160. Decent chance it hits and Chicago wins and miniscule chance Detroit wins 1-0 so if Chicago loses this will soften the blow a little. Mulling this over with the other options of letting it ride or Detroit ML to hedge.

[El Nino]

I have Chicago for the series straight up and to close out a parlay. I hedged the last game by playing Detroit over 2.5 at +130. Was better than the ML and figured they don't win if they don't score 3 and some chance that it hits and Chicago wins. It was a little unnerving heading into the third with Detroit up 2-1 and a little lucky to have this hit and Chicago win.

Tonight I might play most of what I will win if Chicago wins on Detroit over 1.5 at -160. Decent chance it hits and Chicago wins and miniscule chance Detroit wins 1-0 so if Chicago loses this will soften the blow a little. Mulling this over with the other options of letting it ride or Detroit ML to hedge.

Yeah, the more I look at it, the more I'm leaning towards letting it ride. I saw Detroit was +287 -1/2 1st 60 min.

[Russian Rocket]

Yeah, the more I look at it, the more I'm leaning towards letting it ride. I saw Detroit was +287 -1/2 1st 60 min.

Since I lost my bet on Sharks series, I'll probably gonna pound this play tonight

[El Nino]

Since I lost my bet on Sharks series, I'll probably gonna pound this play tonight

You think the Red Wings can get 3 goals on the road? I doubt the refs let Teows get abused in a Game 7 at home. The Blackhawks were nasty their last game at home.

[Vegas39]

Will be pulling for Detroit but not confident enough to bet this

[Russian Rocket]

You think the Red Wings can get 3 goals on the road? I doubt the refs let Teows get abused in a Game 7 at home. The Blackhawks were nasty their last game at home.

Wings can score goals and I'm not sure about the penalties, it very well could a be a low penalty game, just like Sharks/LA last night.

[El Nino]

Wings can score goals and I'm not sure about the penalties, it very well could a be a low penalty game, just like Sharks/LA last night.

Yeah, last night's game was reffed pretty well. Quick whistles and very little time for the usual BS scrums after the whistle. Burns got busted with that interference penalty when he checked the Kings Defenseman into the net. Other than that, was pretty clean.

[Vegas39]

Rocket your. Team wasted no time

[Huckleberry Pig]

I agree with what someone said earlier. If you had been doing poorly in the playoffs, I'd hedge. However, you have been doing well and I think at this point you just let it ride.

[Deuce]

Torts was canned.

Torts and Ruff but you chose Roy?

[Vegas39]

Damn gonna miss those Torts pst game press conferences

[Russian Rocket]

Torts was canned.

Torts and Ruff but you chose Roy?

Joe Sakic is giving his old buddy a chance to stick around NHL...that's all to it

[Russian Rocket]

Rocket your. Team wasted no time

Vegas you gotta admit that this series could of went either away...yeah Sharks lost, but every single game was too close to call...I mean we're talking 1 goal difference in 5 out of 7 games. Props to Kings for grinding it out...ohh and please don't forget about that early 1st round exit 2 years ago

[Vegas39]

Vegas you gotta admit that this series could of went either away...yeah Sharks lost, but every single game was too close to call...I mean we're talking 1 goal difference in 5 out of 7 games. Props to Kings for grinding it out...ohh and please don't forget about that early 1st round exit 2 years ago

As long as you remember your only Cali team with no cup

[Russian Rocket]

As long as you remember your only Cali team with no cup

ohh fukk

[samrock67]

Bring on Alain Vigneault

[Russian Rocket]

Nino what are your thoughts on Pitts vs Bruins series?

[Vegas39]

Tortorella fired as NY Rangers coach - unreal

Colorado could of done well with him on the bench

Just postd in nhl forum hink he nds up in Vancouver

[Russian Rocket]

Just postd in nhl forum hink he nds up in Vancouver

very well could be