LTA's NFL PLays

[Love The Action]

LTA's NFL Plays

I will be posting all of my NFL plays in this thread for the the 2011-12 season and every year that follows. I have posted all of my NBA and WNBA plays in the NBA forum and MLB plays in the MLB Forum since the end of the NBA regular season and start of the MLB season. My NCAAF thread is also up and running.

For those of you that know me, you know I like to provide in-depth writeups with all of my plays. Generally, you can expect me to post my plays earlier in the week so we can beat the closer and get as much value as possible (unless I think it's better to wait until later in the week). In all the sports markets I invest in, I play totals, moneylines and spreads, with a concentration on totals. I will be very selective with my early season plays and conservative with my unit stakes for those plays until my model and its advanced stats and team/player trends take shape around weeks three or four, at which time we will increase our aggressiveness. My units scale will be between 1x - 5x with some very rare plays above 5x.

Here is a link to some of my previous threads with all my documented plays and records.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping/1239549-ltas-ncaaf-plays-p2.html#post11336211

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...plays-p59.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...mpionship.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...-no-under.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...4-23-11-a.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...nals-reds.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...4-25-11-a.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...4-26-11-a.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...eaks-over.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...4-28-11-a.html

I encourage discourse whether in support of or against my plays, so please feel free to weigh in with your comments. We need to share knowledge with each other if we want to beat our common enemy -- the sportsbooks! Good luck to all!
LTA

[Love The Action]

NFL 9/8/11 (Week 1)

Play #1

NO/GB under (48) 1x (Locked)

I think we have a great shot at cashing this for our first play of the season. First, the whole world is on the over with over 80% of all bets going that way. I have this one at 45, but the public has bet it all the way up past the key number of 47 which gives us some great value here. Everyone knows these are two of the best offenses in the league, but I don't think everyone realizes how great the defenses are in this game. Both defenses were top ten NFL in both points allowed and yards allowed last year. Generally, offenses struggle at the start of the season and it takes longer for them to work out the kinks. This gives the defense the advantage. We have a great league trend going back to 2006-07 season where the opening season Thur night game ended under the posted total each of those years. I expect that again tonight. If you look at the individual matchups on the field, NO's receiver corps are hurting with Moore out and Colston's knee. That gives Woodson and co. a bit of an advantage as they can play more physical. On the other side, Jermichael Finley did not practice this weak with a bum ankle and that could throw off the timing of Rogers against the quick blitzes of NO (one of the most frequent blitzing team in the league). I think everyone is expecting a ton of points tonight, but I expect both teams to try to establish the running game with Grant back for GB and NO trying to get their new Heisman winning rookie the ball as much as possible. I think we have a great public fade opportunity to start off the season and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[southpaw74]

Good luck LTA...I agree with your thoughts and I hope green bay gets a W as well. Maybe 23-17 type game.

[Love The Action]

Good luck LTA...I agree with your thoughts and I hope green bay gets a W as well. Maybe 23-17 type game.

Good luck

[Love The Action]

Fuking over is a damn

[Redscot]

I opened up this comment to celebrate a punt . That didn't work.
Never say never,but.... looking forward to Sunday. Knowing LTA we'll get in the black then.

[southpaw74]

I meant 23-17 for the game...not at halftime! Jimmy crickets

[BetGrinder]

good luck for the season

[Love The Action]

good luck for the season

Thanks bud...you too!

[Love The Action]

What do you guys think of the Bills/Chiefs total at 40. I have this one at 43, but there are questions about Cassel. He will play, but will he last all game? I think Buffalo's defense is still susceptible to the run and KC will run all over them. On the other side, Buffalo will have to pass to win which will allow for more plays and hopefully more points. I am really looking at the over in this one hard. Anyone have any thoughts on that game?

[Love The Action]

NFL 9/8/11 (Week 1)

Play #1

NO/GB under (48) 1x (Locked)

I think we have a great shot at cashing this for our first play of the season. First, the whole world is on the over with over 80% of all bets going that way. I have this one at 45, but the public has bet it all the way up past the key number of 47 which gives us some great value here. Everyone knows these are two of the best offenses in the league, but I don't think everyone realizes how great the defenses are in this game. Both defenses were top ten NFL in both points allowed and yards allowed last year. Generally, offenses struggle at the start of the season and it takes longer for them to work out the kinks. This gives the defense the advantage. We have a great league trend going back to 2006-07 season where the opening season Thur night game ended under the posted total each of those years. I expect that again tonight. If you look at the individual matchups on the field, NO's receiver corps are hurting with Moore out and Colston's knee. That gives Woodson and co. a bit of an advantage as they can play more physical. On the other side, Jermichael Finley did not practice this weak with a bum ankle and that could throw off the timing of Rogers against the quick blitzes of NO (one of the most frequent blitzing team in the league). I think everyone is expecting a ton of points tonight, but I expect both teams to try to establish the running game with Grant back for GB and NO trying to get their new Heisman winning rookie the ball as much as possible. I think we have a great public fade opportunity to start off the season and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

NFL 9/11/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #2

Steelers (+1.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Seattle/SF under (37.5) 1x (Locked)

NFL 9/12/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #4

NE/Mia over (45.5) 1x (Locked)

Writeups to come. Still looking at a few more plays but wanted to lock these in for now before the lines move anymore. Good luck.

[Redscot]

What do you guys think of the Bills/Chiefs total at 40. I have this one at 43, but there are questions about Cassel. He will play, but will he last all game? I think Buffalo's defense is still susceptible to the run and KC will run all over them. On the other side, Buffalo will have to pass to win which will allow for more plays and hopefully more points. I am really looking at the over in this one hard. Anyone have any thoughts on that game?

As you are aware they played a grinder last year in K.C, despite Charles going off for like 240 total yards. Cassel is somewhat of a ?, ribs are cranky and no Moeaki. As you stated seems like a recipe for time of possession chewing ground attack against the Bills sorry run D, although they have some new pieces that may help there.

The Bills are gonna struggle to find chemistry in their passing game, I think the Chiefs hold them in check and force them into a more conservative field position battle.

Pinny is down to 39, I don't think this game hits 40 personally.

[Dexter]

i like the under sf and over pats plays....i went with the pats though. early in the season i love focusing on teams that have the same major core players.....pats made some big changes on defense which should stifle miami. they may go over on their own...

Sea/SF has 10-6 written all over it.

i can flip a coin on pitt/balt....their games are always super close - i will hit the loser of this game in their next matchup for sure.,

[Love The Action]

As you are aware they played a grinder last year in K.C, despite Charles going off for like 240 total yards. Cassel is somewhat of a ?, ribs are cranky and no Moeaki. As you stated seems like a recipe for time of possession chewing ground attack against the Bills sorry run D, although they have some new pieces that may help there.

The Bills are gonna struggle to find chemistry in their passing game, I think the Chiefs hold them in check and force them into a more conservative field position battle.

Pinny is down to 39, I don't think this game hits 40 personally.

Thanks for your analysis. There are probably too many "if's" to play, yet I am having trouble getting off this play. I expect the Chiefs to win pretty easily and lean to that side as well. It may behoove me to lay off this play though. I just got the Titans for +2, so that will be fifth play. GL.

[Love The Action]

i like the under sf and over pats plays....i went with the pats though. early in the season i love focusing on teams that have the same major core players.....pats made some big changes on defense which should stifle miami. they may go over on their own...

Good stuff. Good luck on your plays Dex

[Love The Action]

NFL 9/8/11 (Week 1)

Play #1

NO/GB under (48) 1x (Locked) LOSS

I think we have a great shot at cashing this for our first play of the season. First, the whole world is on the over with over 80% of all bets going that way. I have this one at 45, but the public has bet it all the way up past the key number of 47 which gives us some great value here. Everyone knows these are two of the best offenses in the league, but I don't think everyone realizes how great the defenses are in this game. Both defenses were top ten NFL in both points allowed and yards allowed last year. Generally, offenses struggle at the start of the season and it takes longer for them to work out the kinks. This gives the defense the advantage. We have a great league trend going back to 2006-07 season where the opening season Thur night game ended under the posted total each of those years. I expect that again tonight. If you look at the individual matchups on the field, NO's receiver corps are hurting with Moore out and Colston's knee. That gives Woodson and co. a bit of an advantage as they can play more physical. On the other side, Jermichael Finley did not practice this weak with a bum ankle and that could throw off the timing of Rogers against the quick blitzes of NO (one of the most frequent blitzing team in the league). I think everyone is expecting a ton of points tonight, but I expect both teams to try to establish the running game with Grant back for GB and NO trying to get their new Heisman winning rookie the ball as much as possible. I think we have a great public fade opportunity to start off the season and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

NFL 9/11/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #2

Steelers (+1.5) 1x (Locked)

This play is all about superiority of the Steelers offense and a slight edge to the Steelers defense. I don't give any credence to the dropoff trend of SB losers when it comes to the Steel Curtain. Look at the head to head matchups on offense and you will see the Steelers are equal to or just a bit better than the Raves and I expect that slight edge to prove itself in the final score at the end of the game. I contemplated the moneyline here, but when I was able to get the hook at my squarer local book, it sinched this play for me. Steelers have the better QB, the better group of WR's, equal RB's and a comprable offensive line. You can debate the defenses back and forth, but I think the Steelers defense is more athletic and I give them the edge. In his career, Roethlisburger has owned the Ravens and I expect that dominance to continue because the Ravens are just a slight notch below the Steelers. I'm rolling with the Steel curtain for 1x.

Play #3

Seattle/SF under (37.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like the 49'ers a lot in this game and I may play them as well. However, I like that number at 5 and not 5.5 and we'll wait to see what happens with that line. Plus, I am trying to play conservatively at the start of the season with respect to the total amount of my plays and I have to go with the play where I think I have the biggest edge. In this matchup, the edge is with the total and the inability of Seattle to score on SF's defense. I expect SF's linebacking corps to dominate this matchup in limiting the intermediate passing game, putting pressure on Jackson and limiting his scrambling ability. Bottom line is that I just don't see either team "breaking out" offensively. The niners are installing a new offense, but should be able to run the ball consistently over one of the weaker run defenses. This game is all about Gore, who I expect to run for over 100 yards and a couple scores in a 21-7 win for the niners. However, the niners passing game is still questionable because of an inability of Smith to find some rhythm with his receivers in the preseason. I think the niners run the ball to victory, but struggle through the air which is the reason this one stays under the posted total. I have no faith in Tavaris Jackson and think he provides us with some nice fade material early in the season. I'm rolling with the under in this matchup for 1x. Good luck.

NFL 9/12/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #4

NE/Mia over (45.5) 1x (Locked)

It's tough not to think New England finds offensive success against the Dolphins on Monday night. No need for a big writeup on this play. NE is finely oiled offensive machine, but has it's weaknesses or at least question marks defensively. Miami boasts some dangerous offensive weapons that can score through the big play (think Bush, Marshall, Thomas, Hartline). I just see New England scoring 35 and the Dolphins getting another 17 points minimum to push this one over and I'm rolling that way for 1x.

NFL 9/11/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #5

Tennessee (+2) 1x (Locked)

Tennessee is just the better team and once I was able to get +2 on this one, I had to jump at it. Just like we are fading Tavaris Jackson, we are also fading Luke McCown in this matchup. I will take Matt Hasleback's experience over McCown any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Other than Jones-Drew, Lewis and maybe Thomas on the outside, there's not much about the Jags offense to scare you. Plus, they still need someone to throw the ball and then you get back to McCown or a rookie. On defense, the Jags might be without Kampan, who is the main pass rushing force for their defense. At the very least, he will be limited against an offense that boasts CJ and Javon Ringer out of the backfield. With Britt on the outside with Washington on the other side, I think the offensive edge clearly goes to the Titans. Because I also give the Titans the defensive edge based on the secondary's ability to shut down the Jags receiving corp, I am going to take Tennessee for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

God Bless America, all the people she lost on 9/11/01 and all the troops that protect each of her citizens on a daily basis. WWNF

[BigDan]

good luck this season LTA.

[Love The Action]

good luck this season LTA.

Same to you BD...so what are you on today?

I'm about to have a bigger card than I planned, but you have to play every game where you think you have the edge right? Let's do this!

[BigDan]

i put a thread up but short answer is stl +4.5, skins +3, pit/bal ov 36, buf/kc un 40. still looking for a 5th game....

[Love The Action]

NFL 9/8/11 (Week 1)

Play #1

NO/GB under (48) 1x (Locked) LOSS

I think we have a great shot at cashing this for our first play of the season. First, the whole world is on the over with over 80% of all bets going that way. I have this one at 45, but the public has bet it all the way up past the key number of 47 which gives us some great value here. Everyone knows these are two of the best offenses in the league, but I don't think everyone realizes how great the defenses are in this game. Both defenses were top ten NFL in both points allowed and yards allowed last year. Generally, offenses struggle at the start of the season and it takes longer for them to work out the kinks. This gives the defense the advantage. We have a great league trend going back to 2006-07 season where the opening season Thur night game ended under the posted total each of those years. I expect that again tonight. If you look at the individual matchups on the field, NO's receiver corps are hurting with Moore out and Colston's knee. That gives Woodson and co. a bit of an advantage as they can play more physical. On the other side, Jermichael Finley did not practice this weak with a bum ankle and that could throw off the timing of Rogers against the quick blitzes of NO (one of the most frequent blitzing team in the league). I think everyone is expecting a ton of points tonight, but I expect both teams to try to establish the running game with Grant back for GB and NO trying to get their new Heisman winning rookie the ball as much as possible. I think we have a great public fade opportunity to start off the season and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

NFL 9/11/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #2

Steelers (+1.5) 1x (Locked)

This play is all about superiority of the Steelers offense and a slight edge to the Steelers defense. I don't give any credence to the dropoff trend of SB losers when it comes to the Steel Curtain. Look at the head to head matchups on offense and you will see the Steelers are equal to or just a bit better than the Raves and I expect that slight edge to prove itself in the final score at the end of the game. I contemplated the moneyline here, but when I was able to get the hook at my squarer local book, it sinched this play for me. Steelers have the better QB, the better group of WR's, equal RB's and a comprable offensive line. You can debate the defenses back and forth, but I think the Steelers defense is more athletic and I give them the edge. In his career, Roethlisburger has owned the Ravens and I expect that dominance to continue because the Ravens are just a slight notch below the Steelers. I'm rolling with the Steel curtain for 1x.

Play #3

Seattle/SF under (37.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like the 49'ers a lot in this game and I may play them as well. However, I like that number at 5 and not 5.5 and we'll wait to see what happens with that line. Plus, I am trying to play conservatively at the start of the season with respect to the total amount of my plays and I have to go with the play where I think I have the biggest edge. In this matchup, the edge is with the total and the inability of Seattle to score on SF's defense. I expect SF's linebacking corps to dominate this matchup in limiting the intermediate passing game, putting pressure on Jackson and limiting his scrambling ability. Bottom line is that I just don't see either team "breaking out" offensively. The niners are installing a new offense, but should be able to run the ball consistently over one of the weaker run defenses. This game is all about Gore, who I expect to run for over 100 yards and a couple scores in a 21-7 win for the niners. However, the niners passing game is still questionable because of an inability of Smith to find some rhythm with his receivers in the preseason. I think the niners run the ball to victory, but struggle through the air which is the reason this one stays under the posted total. I have no faith in Tavaris Jackson and think he provides us with some nice fade material early in the season. I'm rolling with the under in this matchup for 1x. Good luck.

NFL 9/12/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #4

NE/Mia over (45.5) 1x (Locked)

It's tough not to think New England finds offensive success against the Dolphins on Monday night. No need for a big writeup on this play. NE is finely oiled offensive machine, but has it's weaknesses or at least question marks defensively. Miami boasts some dangerous offensive weapons that can score through the big play (think Bush, Marshall, Thomas, Hartline). I just see New England scoring 35 and the Dolphins getting another 17 points minimum to push this one over and I'm rolling that way for 1x.

NFL 9/11/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #5

Tennessee (+2) 1x (Locked)

Tennessee is just the better team and once I was able to get +2 on this one, I had to jump at it. Just like we are fading Tavaris Jackson, we are also fading Luke McCown in this matchup. I will take Matt Hasleback's experience over McCown any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Other than Jones-Drew, Lewis and maybe Thomas on the outside, there's not much about the Jags offense to scare you. Plus, they still need someone to throw the ball and then you get back to McCown or a rookie. On defense, the Jags might be without Kampan, who is the main pass rushing force for their defense. At the very least, he will be limited against an offense that boasts CJ and Javon Ringer out of the backfield. With Britt on the outside with Washington on the other side, I think the offensive edge clearly goes to the Titans. Because I also give the Titans the defensive edge based on the secondary's ability to shut down the Jags receiving corp, I am going to take Tennessee for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

TB (-1) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups, busy with all the NFL and MLB action today. I will, however, post all my plays as I make them and then come back to provide my thoughts (if time) before the games. In this game, I am not convinced by all the Detroit love. TB is an up and coming team playing at home and we get great value at -1. I am high on Detroit this year, but I don't think they win this first game on the road. I like Freeman and the Bucs here for 1x. Good luck.

[BigDan]

Play #6

TB (-1) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups, busy with all the NFL and MLB action today. I will, however, post all my plays as I make them and then come back to provide my thoughts (if time) before the games. In this game, I am not convinced by all the Detroit love. TB is an up and coming team playing at home and we get great value at -1. I am high on Detroit this year, but I don't think they win this first game on the road. I like Freeman and the Bucs here for 1x. Good luck.

this is one of a few i was considering as my 5th. Like everyone i am kinda buying the det hype but catching less than a fg, in the heat, against another solid young team?

[Redscot]

Feeling really good LTA. 4 of the 5 games you are on so far I already played earlier in the week, gives me confidence seeing you on them to. Gonna join ya on the Mia over too. Heading out, so best of luck today and see you mid afternoon.

[Love The Action]

NFL 9/8/11 (Week 1)

Play #1

NO/GB under (48) 1x (Locked) LOSS

I think we have a great shot at cashing this for our first play of the season. First, the whole world is on the over with over 80% of all bets going that way. I have this one at 45, but the public has bet it all the way up past the key number of 47 which gives us some great value here. Everyone knows these are two of the best offenses in the league, but I don't think everyone realizes how great the defenses are in this game. Both defenses were top ten NFL in both points allowed and yards allowed last year. Generally, offenses struggle at the start of the season and it takes longer for them to work out the kinks. This gives the defense the advantage. We have a great league trend going back to 2006-07 season where the opening season Thur night game ended under the posted total each of those years. I expect that again tonight. If you look at the individual matchups on the field, NO's receiver corps are hurting with Moore out and Colston's knee. That gives Woodson and co. a bit of an advantage as they can play more physical. On the other side, Jermichael Finley did not practice this weak with a bum ankle and that could throw off the timing of Rogers against the quick blitzes of NO (one of the most frequent blitzing team in the league). I think everyone is expecting a ton of points tonight, but I expect both teams to try to establish the running game with Grant back for GB and NO trying to get their new Heisman winning rookie the ball as much as possible. I think we have a great public fade opportunity to start off the season and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

NFL 9/11/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #2

Steelers (+1.5) 1x (Locked)

This play is all about superiority of the Steelers offense and a slight edge to the Steelers defense. I don't give any credence to the dropoff trend of SB losers when it comes to the Steel Curtain. Look at the head to head matchups on offense and you will see the Steelers are equal to or just a bit better than the Raves and I expect that slight edge to prove itself in the final score at the end of the game. I contemplated the moneyline here, but when I was able to get the hook at my squarer local book, it sinched this play for me. Steelers have the better QB, the better group of WR's, equal RB's and a comprable offensive line. You can debate the defenses back and forth, but I think the Steelers defense is more athletic and I give them the edge. In his career, Roethlisburger has owned the Ravens and I expect that dominance to continue because the Ravens are just a slight notch below the Steelers. I'm rolling with the Steel curtain for 1x.

Play #3

Seattle/SF under (37.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like the 49'ers a lot in this game and I may play them as well. However, I like that number at 5 and not 5.5 and we'll wait to see what happens with that line. Plus, I am trying to play conservatively at the start of the season with respect to the total amount of my plays and I have to go with the play where I think I have the biggest edge. In this matchup, the edge is with the total and the inability of Seattle to score on SF's defense. I expect SF's linebacking corps to dominate this matchup in limiting the intermediate passing game, putting pressure on Jackson and limiting his scrambling ability. Bottom line is that I just don't see either team "breaking out" offensively. The niners are installing a new offense, but should be able to run the ball consistently over one of the weaker run defenses. This game is all about Gore, who I expect to run for over 100 yards and a couple scores in a 21-7 win for the niners. However, the niners passing game is still questionable because of an inability of Smith to find some rhythm with his receivers in the preseason. I think the niners run the ball to victory, but struggle through the air which is the reason this one stays under the posted total. I have no faith in Tavaris Jackson and think he provides us with some nice fade material early in the season. I'm rolling with the under in this matchup for 1x. Good luck.

NFL 9/12/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #4

NE/Mia over (45.5) 1x (Locked)

It's tough not to think New England finds offensive success against the Dolphins on Monday night. No need for a big writeup on this play. NE is finely oiled offensive machine, but has it's weaknesses or at least question marks defensively. Miami boasts some dangerous offensive weapons that can score through the big play (think Bush, Marshall, Thomas, Hartline). I just see New England scoring 35 and the Dolphins getting another 17 points minimum to push this one over and I'm rolling that way for 1x.

NFL 9/11/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #5

Tennessee (+2) 1x (Locked)

Tennessee is just the better team and once I was able to get +2 on this one, I had to jump at it. Just like we are fading Tavaris Jackson, we are also fading Luke McCown in this matchup. I will take Matt Hasleback's experience over McCown any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Other than Jones-Drew, Lewis and maybe Thomas on the outside, there's not much about the Jags offense to scare you. Plus, they still need someone to throw the ball and then you get back to McCown or a rookie. On defense, the Jags might be without Kampan, who is the main pass rushing force for their defense. At the very least, he will be limited against an offense that boasts CJ and Javon Ringer out of the backfield. With Britt on the outside with Washington on the other side, I think the offensive edge clearly goes to the Titans. Because I also give the Titans the defensive edge based on the secondary's ability to shut down the Jags receiving corp, I am going to take Tennessee for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

TB (-1) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups, busy with all the NFL and MLB action today. I will, however, post all my plays as I make them and then come back to provide my thoughts (if time) before the games. In this game, I am not convinced by all the Detroit love. TB is an up and coming team playing at home and we get great value at -1. I am high on Detroit this year, but I don't think they win this first game on the road. I like Freeman and the Bucs here for 1x. Good luck.

NFL 9/12/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #7

Oakland/Denver over (40.5) 1x (Locked)

Can't wait till Monday for this one. Gotta jump on this one now before it crosses the key number of 41. More to come....

[Love The Action]

Feeling really good LTA. 4 of the 5 games you are on so far I already played earlier in the week, gives me confidence seeing you on them to. Gonna join ya on the Mia over too. Heading out, so best of luck today and see you mid afternoon.

Awesome! Let's get it Red! I will have a big card today...bigger than I thought, but I'm getting great lines between my two locals and I have to jump on the value where I think it exists. Good luck bud!

[Love The Action]

this is one of a few i was considering as my 5th. Like everyone i am kinda buying the det hype but catching less than a fg, in the heat, against another solid young team?

Yeah, I think it will take time for Detroit to gel as a team. TB is ready to roll...plus, like you note, they have the home field/weather advantage. BOL

[BigDan]

NFL 9/12/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #7

Oakland/Denver over (40.5) 1x (Locked)

Can't wait till Monday for this one. Gotta jump on this one now before it crosses the key number of 41. More to come....

yea this my fav play on monday for sure.

[Redscot]

Awesome! Let's get it Red! I will have a big card today...bigger than I thought, but I'm getting great lines between my two locals and I have to jump on the value where I think it exists. Good luck bud!

Heh, actually I misspoke, on the other side of Tampa, but got Det +3 early in week. Come one Tampa by 2!

GL to you BigD

[GoggsViggs]

like the plays bro! BOL to you.

only differ on TB. i'm on the other side with DET lol

[Love The Action]

NFL 9/8/11 (Week 1)

Play #1

NO/GB under (48) 1x (Locked) LOSS

I think we have a great shot at cashing this for our first play of the season. First, the whole world is on the over with over 80% of all bets going that way. I have this one at 45, but the public has bet it all the way up past the key number of 47 which gives us some great value here. Everyone knows these are two of the best offenses in the league, but I don't think everyone realizes how great the defenses are in this game. Both defenses were top ten NFL in both points allowed and yards allowed last year. Generally, offenses struggle at the start of the season and it takes longer for them to work out the kinks. This gives the defense the advantage. We have a great league trend going back to 2006-07 season where the opening season Thur night game ended under the posted total each of those years. I expect that again tonight. If you look at the individual matchups on the field, NO's receiver corps are hurting with Moore out and Colston's knee. That gives Woodson and co. a bit of an advantage as they can play more physical. On the other side, Jermichael Finley did not practice this weak with a bum ankle and that could throw off the timing of Rogers against the quick blitzes of NO (one of the most frequent blitzing team in the league). I think everyone is expecting a ton of points tonight, but I expect both teams to try to establish the running game with Grant back for GB and NO trying to get their new Heisman winning rookie the ball as much as possible. I think we have a great public fade opportunity to start off the season and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

NFL 9/11/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #2

Steelers (+1.5) 1x (Locked)

This play is all about superiority of the Steelers offense and a slight edge to the Steelers defense. I don't give any credence to the dropoff trend of SB losers when it comes to the Steel Curtain. Look at the head to head matchups on offense and you will see the Steelers are equal to or just a bit better than the Raves and I expect that slight edge to prove itself in the final score at the end of the game. I contemplated the moneyline here, but when I was able to get the hook at my squarer local book, it sinched this play for me. Steelers have the better QB, the better group of WR's, equal RB's and a comprable offensive line. You can debate the defenses back and forth, but I think the Steelers defense is more athletic and I give them the edge. In his career, Roethlisburger has owned the Ravens and I expect that dominance to continue because the Ravens are just a slight notch below the Steelers. I'm rolling with the Steel curtain for 1x.

Play #3

Seattle/SF under (37.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like the 49'ers a lot in this game and I may play them as well. However, I like that number at 5 and not 5.5 and we'll wait to see what happens with that line. Plus, I am trying to play conservatively at the start of the season with respect to the total amount of my plays and I have to go with the play where I think I have the biggest edge. In this matchup, the edge is with the total and the inability of Seattle to score on SF's defense. I expect SF's linebacking corps to dominate this matchup in limiting the intermediate passing game, putting pressure on Jackson and limiting his scrambling ability. Bottom line is that I just don't see either team "breaking out" offensively. The niners are installing a new offense, but should be able to run the ball consistently over one of the weaker run defenses. This game is all about Gore, who I expect to run for over 100 yards and a couple scores in a 21-7 win for the niners. However, the niners passing game is still questionable because of an inability of Smith to find some rhythm with his receivers in the preseason. I think the niners run the ball to victory, but struggle through the air which is the reason this one stays under the posted total. I have no faith in Tavaris Jackson and think he provides us with some nice fade material early in the season. I'm rolling with the under in this matchup for 1x. Good luck.

NFL 9/12/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #4

NE/Mia over (45.5) 1x (Locked)

It's tough not to think New England finds offensive success against the Dolphins on Monday night. No need for a big writeup on this play. NE is finely oiled offensive machine, but has it's weaknesses or at least question marks defensively. Miami boasts some dangerous offensive weapons that can score through the big play (think Bush, Marshall, Thomas, Hartline). I just see New England scoring 35 and the Dolphins getting another 17 points minimum to push this one over and I'm rolling that way for 1x.

NFL 9/11/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #5

Tennessee (+2) 1x (Locked)

Tennessee is just the better team and once I was able to get +2 on this one, I had to jump at it. Just like we are fading Tavaris Jackson, we are also fading Luke McCown in this matchup. I will take Matt Hasleback's experience over McCown any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Other than Jones-Drew, Lewis and maybe Thomas on the outside, there's not much about the Jags offense to scare you. Plus, they still need someone to throw the ball and then you get back to McCown or a rookie. On defense, the Jags might be without Kampan, who is the main pass rushing force for their defense. At the very least, he will be limited against an offense that boasts CJ and Javon Ringer out of the backfield. With Britt on the outside with Washington on the other side, I think the offensive edge clearly goes to the Titans. Because I also give the Titans the defensive edge based on the secondary's ability to shut down the Jags receiving corp, I am going to take Tennessee for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

TB (-1) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups, busy with all the NFL and MLB action today. I will, however, post all my plays as I make them and then come back to provide my thoughts (if time) before the games. In this game, I am not convinced by all the Detroit love. TB is an up and coming team playing at home and we get great value at -1. I am high on Detroit this year, but I don't think they win this first game on the road. I like Freeman and the Bucs here for 1x. Good luck.

NFL 9/12/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #7

Oakland/Denver over (40.5) 1x (Locked)

Can't wait till Monday for this one. Gotta jump on this one now before it crosses the key number of 41. More to come....

NFL 9/11/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #8

Cincinnati/Cleveland under (35.5) 1x (Locked)

This is a larger card than I though, but I'm finding quite a bit of value compared to my numbers. Therefore, I have to jump on it. More to come...

[Love The Action]

NFL 9/8/11 (Week 1)

Play #1

NO/GB under (48) 1x (Locked) LOSS

I think we have a great shot at cashing this for our first play of the season. First, the whole world is on the over with over 80% of all bets going that way. I have this one at 45, but the public has bet it all the way up past the key number of 47 which gives us some great value here. Everyone knows these are two of the best offenses in the league, but I don't think everyone realizes how great the defenses are in this game. Both defenses were top ten NFL in both points allowed and yards allowed last year. Generally, offenses struggle at the start of the season and it takes longer for them to work out the kinks. This gives the defense the advantage. We have a great league trend going back to 2006-07 season where the opening season Thur night game ended under the posted total each of those years. I expect that again tonight. If you look at the individual matchups on the field, NO's receiver corps are hurting with Moore out and Colston's knee. That gives Woodson and co. a bit of an advantage as they can play more physical. On the other side, Jermichael Finley did not practice this weak with a bum ankle and that could throw off the timing of Rogers against the quick blitzes of NO (one of the most frequent blitzing team in the league). I think everyone is expecting a ton of points tonight, but I expect both teams to try to establish the running game with Grant back for GB and NO trying to get their new Heisman winning rookie the ball as much as possible. I think we have a great public fade opportunity to start off the season and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

NFL 9/11/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #2

Steelers (+1.5) 1x (Locked)

This play is all about superiority of the Steelers offense and a slight edge to the Steelers defense. I don't give any credence to the dropoff trend of SB losers when it comes to the Steel Curtain. Look at the head to head matchups on offense and you will see the Steelers are equal to or just a bit better than the Raves and I expect that slight edge to prove itself in the final score at the end of the game. I contemplated the moneyline here, but when I was able to get the hook at my squarer local book, it sinched this play for me. Steelers have the better QB, the better group of WR's, equal RB's and a comprable offensive line. You can debate the defenses back and forth, but I think the Steelers defense is more athletic and I give them the edge. In his career, Roethlisburger has owned the Ravens and I expect that dominance to continue because the Ravens are just a slight notch below the Steelers. I'm rolling with the Steel curtain for 1x.

Play #3

Seattle/SF under (37.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like the 49'ers a lot in this game and I may play them as well. However, I like that number at 5 and not 5.5 and we'll wait to see what happens with that line. Plus, I am trying to play conservatively at the start of the season with respect to the total amount of my plays and I have to go with the play where I think I have the biggest edge. In this matchup, the edge is with the total and the inability of Seattle to score on SF's defense. I expect SF's linebacking corps to dominate this matchup in limiting the intermediate passing game, putting pressure on Jackson and limiting his scrambling ability. Bottom line is that I just don't see either team "breaking out" offensively. The niners are installing a new offense, but should be able to run the ball consistently over one of the weaker run defenses. This game is all about Gore, who I expect to run for over 100 yards and a couple scores in a 21-7 win for the niners. However, the niners passing game is still questionable because of an inability of Smith to find some rhythm with his receivers in the preseason. I think the niners run the ball to victory, but struggle through the air which is the reason this one stays under the posted total. I have no faith in Tavaris Jackson and think he provides us with some nice fade material early in the season. I'm rolling with the under in this matchup for 1x. Good luck.

NFL 9/12/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #4

NE/Mia over (45.5) 1x (Locked)

It's tough not to think New England finds offensive success against the Dolphins on Monday night. No need for a big writeup on this play. NE is finely oiled offensive machine, but has it's weaknesses or at least question marks defensively. Miami boasts some dangerous offensive weapons that can score through the big play (think Bush, Marshall, Thomas, Hartline). I just see New England scoring 35 and the Dolphins getting another 17 points minimum to push this one over and I'm rolling that way for 1x.

NFL 9/11/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #5

Tennessee (+2) 1x (Locked)

Tennessee is just the better team and once I was able to get +2 on this one, I had to jump at it. Just like we are fading Tavaris Jackson, we are also fading Luke McCown in this matchup. I will take Matt Hasleback's experience over McCown any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Other than Jones-Drew, Lewis and maybe Thomas on the outside, there's not much about the Jags offense to scare you. Plus, they still need someone to throw the ball and then you get back to McCown or a rookie. On defense, the Jags might be without Kampan, who is the main pass rushing force for their defense. At the very least, he will be limited against an offense that boasts CJ and Javon Ringer out of the backfield. With Britt on the outside with Washington on the other side, I think the offensive edge clearly goes to the Titans. Because I also give the Titans the defensive edge based on the secondary's ability to shut down the Jags receiving corp, I am going to take Tennessee for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

TB (-1) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups, busy with all the NFL and MLB action today. I will, however, post all my plays as I make them and then come back to provide my thoughts (if time) before the games. In this game, I am not convinced by all the Detroit love. TB is an up and coming team playing at home and we get great value at -1. I am high on Detroit this year, but I don't think they win this first game on the road. I like Freeman and the Bucs here for 1x. Good luck.

NFL 9/12/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #7

Oakland/Denver over (40.5) 1x (Locked)

Can't wait till Monday for this one. Gotta jump on this one now before it crosses the key number of 41. More to come....

NFL 9/11/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #8

Cincinnati/Cleveland under (35.5) 1x (Locked)

This is a larger card than I though, but I'm finding quite a bit of value compared to my numbers. Therefore, I have to jump on it. More to come...

Play #9

Chiefs (-4) 1x (Locked)

If this was not week 1, I would go larger on this play. I just don't see enough improvement in the Bills to warrant a -4 line. Assuming Cassel plays as reported, I have this one at -6. I'm going with the value on the Chiefs at home for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NFL 9/8/11 (Week 1)

Play #1

NO/GB under (48) 1x (Locked) LOSS

I think we have a great shot at cashing this for our first play of the season. First, the whole world is on the over with over 80% of all bets going that way. I have this one at 45, but the public has bet it all the way up past the key number of 47 which gives us some great value here. Everyone knows these are two of the best offenses in the league, but I don't think everyone realizes how great the defenses are in this game. Both defenses were top ten NFL in both points allowed and yards allowed last year. Generally, offenses struggle at the start of the season and it takes longer for them to work out the kinks. This gives the defense the advantage. We have a great league trend going back to 2006-07 season where the opening season Thur night game ended under the posted total each of those years. I expect that again tonight. If you look at the individual matchups on the field, NO's receiver corps are hurting with Moore out and Colston's knee. That gives Woodson and co. a bit of an advantage as they can play more physical. On the other side, Jermichael Finley did not practice this weak with a bum ankle and that could throw off the timing of Rogers against the quick blitzes of NO (one of the most frequent blitzing team in the league). I think everyone is expecting a ton of points tonight, but I expect both teams to try to establish the running game with Grant back for GB and NO trying to get their new Heisman winning rookie the ball as much as possible. I think we have a great public fade opportunity to start off the season and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

NFL 9/11/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #2

Steelers (+1.5) 1x (Locked)

This play is all about superiority of the Steelers offense and a slight edge to the Steelers defense. I don't give any credence to the dropoff trend of SB losers when it comes to the Steel Curtain. Look at the head to head matchups on offense and you will see the Steelers are equal to or just a bit better than the Raves and I expect that slight edge to prove itself in the final score at the end of the game. I contemplated the moneyline here, but when I was able to get the hook at my squarer local book, it sinched this play for me. Steelers have the better QB, the better group of WR's, equal RB's and a comprable offensive line. You can debate the defenses back and forth, but I think the Steelers defense is more athletic and I give them the edge. In his career, Roethlisburger has owned the Ravens and I expect that dominance to continue because the Ravens are just a slight notch below the Steelers. I'm rolling with the Steel curtain for 1x.

Play #3

Seattle/SF under (37.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like the 49'ers a lot in this game and I may play them as well. However, I like that number at 5 and not 5.5 and we'll wait to see what happens with that line. Plus, I am trying to play conservatively at the start of the season with respect to the total amount of my plays and I have to go with the play where I think I have the biggest edge. In this matchup, the edge is with the total and the inability of Seattle to score on SF's defense. I expect SF's linebacking corps to dominate this matchup in limiting the intermediate passing game, putting pressure on Jackson and limiting his scrambling ability. Bottom line is that I just don't see either team "breaking out" offensively. The niners are installing a new offense, but should be able to run the ball consistently over one of the weaker run defenses. This game is all about Gore, who I expect to run for over 100 yards and a couple scores in a 21-7 win for the niners. However, the niners passing game is still questionable because of an inability of Smith to find some rhythm with his receivers in the preseason. I think the niners run the ball to victory, but struggle through the air which is the reason this one stays under the posted total. I have no faith in Tavaris Jackson and think he provides us with some nice fade material early in the season. I'm rolling with the under in this matchup for 1x. Good luck.

NFL 9/12/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #4

NE/Mia over (45.5) 1x (Locked)

It's tough not to think New England finds offensive success against the Dolphins on Monday night. No need for a big writeup on this play. NE is finely oiled offensive machine, but has it's weaknesses or at least question marks defensively. Miami boasts some dangerous offensive weapons that can score through the big play (think Bush, Marshall, Thomas, Hartline). I just see New England scoring 35 and the Dolphins getting another 17 points minimum to push this one over and I'm rolling that way for 1x.

NFL 9/11/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #5

Tennessee (+2) 1x (Locked)

Tennessee is just the better team and once I was able to get +2 on this one, I had to jump at it. Just like we are fading Tavaris Jackson, we are also fading Luke McCown in this matchup. I will take Matt Hasleback's experience over McCown any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Other than Jones-Drew, Lewis and maybe Thomas on the outside, there's not much about the Jags offense to scare you. Plus, they still need someone to throw the ball and then you get back to McCown or a rookie. On defense, the Jags might be without Kampan, who is the main pass rushing force for their defense. At the very least, he will be limited against an offense that boasts CJ and Javon Ringer out of the backfield. With Britt on the outside with Washington on the other side, I think the offensive edge clearly goes to the Titans. Because I also give the Titans the defensive edge based on the secondary's ability to shut down the Jags receiving corp, I am going to take Tennessee for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

TB (-1) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups, busy with all the NFL and MLB action today. I will, however, post all my plays as I make them and then come back to provide my thoughts (if time) before the games. In this game, I am not convinced by all the Detroit love. TB is an up and coming team playing at home and we get great value at -1. I am high on Detroit this year, but I don't think they win this first game on the road. I like Freeman and the Bucs here for 1x. Good luck.

NFL 9/12/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #7

Oakland/Denver over (40.5) 1x (Locked)

Can't wait till Monday for this one. Gotta jump on this one now before it crosses the key number of 41. More to come....

NFL 9/11/11 (Week 1 cont.)

Play #8

Cincinnati/Cleveland under (35.5) 1x (Locked)

This is a larger card than I though, but I'm finding quite a bit of value compared to my numbers. Therefore, I have to jump on it. More to come...

Play #9

Chiefs (-4) 1x (Locked)

If this was not week 1, I would go larger on this play. I just don't see enough improvement in the Bills to warrant a -4 line. Assuming Cassel plays as reported, I have this one at -6. I'm going with the value on the Chiefs at home for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

SF (-5) 1x (Locked)

Once I saw this number, I had to take it. As I stated in my writeup on the total in this one, I am fading Tavaris Jackson. I don't think Seattle has the guns to keep up with SF on either side of the ball. Situationally, the 9'ers are in a better spot. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Man...I missed out on all the line movement for the totals I was eyeing...

Leaning

Philly/StL over
Det/TB over
Buf/KC over

[Love The Action]

Looks like a bad call on that Cincy/Cleveland under. I locked it in at 35.5 and now it's at 37... fuk

[Love The Action]

Man...I missed out on all the line movement for the totals I was eyeing...

Leaning

Philly/StL over
Det/TB over
Buf/KC over

Not going to play the totals in Det/TB or Buf/KC. I am already playing TB and KC and like those plays better than the total. I am still eyeing the over in Philly/StL. However, only if I can get it 44 and not 44.5. Both my locals have 44.5 right now...GL today.