2011 NFL Pro Picks with John Ryan

[John Ryan]

It has been a hard day, but a little less painful having had a perfect 5-0 ATS CBB day day yesterday and the win on Army to make it 6-0 ATS. So, I like Dallas on the second half line listed as Dallas -2... I would not do more than a 3* amount.. Many of you already have a bout a 10.5 star amount using the money line on Dallas and adding more risk greater than a 3* amount compounds the potential loss.

It is getting to the point in the season where injuries will have a major effect on the outcome of selections. for the fourth time today we have three offensive players OUT of a game. New center for Dallas, but he did a great job picking up the zone blitz the two times the Giants came at him.

Sorry for the poor performance today. We will still be at 60% ATS or better by the end of the regular season.

[spike1519]

managed to get the college games in but been really busy escorting trucks around. Actually kinda fun having police escort you on your motorcycle instead of being behind you! lol. John thanx again for a great weekend I know your havin a rough day on the pro thread. I managed to get G.B on tuesday morning at -11 +110. I bet the M/L as well as the point spread on Houston on tuesday as well. Think I put those in a post earlier this week so I took that and called it a week in pro ball. Unbelievable picks in the college thread my friend. Don't wanna see people get frustrated because of one bad day (not religious but god didn't quit after the Platypus?) so stick with John and I have all the confidence in the world that he will guide us thru this slump..........spike.............

________________________________________ ________________________________________ ___________________

When every bone in your body and fear screams at you to retreat that is the time to charge forward and take the fight to the enemy. I for one am ready to steal a win when things are at there worst.

[Jhyun]

o geez good thing I skipped out on Cowboys play. Let's get em next week.

[Badboyz8]

I do have a 10* play using the MONEY LINE on Dallas.. What this means is if the line is -210 for example, you will have to wager a 10.5* amount to win a 5* amount. So, the play counts in the 5* record. I do believe that Dallas will crush the Giants.

John,

I'm a newbie not a hater or basher just trying to learn. If I put down $100 on the ML and then I lose, I lose -$210, when I do my record keeping do I put down I lost -$100 or -$210? If the answer is "you lost $210" then shouldn't a 5* play when recorded be a negative -10* result? It wouldn't be fair to say play the ML at -210 and consider it as a 5* record when "you have to wager a 10.5* amount" would it? But if Dallas did "crush the Giants" this record wouldn't be posted as a +10.5* winner, would it?

Happy Holidays. Wishing you much prosperity in all your future endeavors.

[aussieH]

Jr can Dallas still win the NFC east?

[true blue 26]

jeeeeez nice picks

[John Ryan]

John,

I'm a newbie not a hater or basher just trying to learn. If I put down $100 on the ML and then I lose, I lose -$210, when I do my record keeping do I put down I lost -$100 or -$210? If the answer is "you lost $210" then shouldn't a 5* play when recorded be a negative -10* result? It wouldn't be fair to say play the ML at -210 and consider it as a 5* record when "you have to wager a 10.5* amount" would it? But if Dallas did "crush the Giants" this record wouldn't be posted as a +10.5* winner, would it?

Happy Holidays. Wishing you much prosperity in all your future endeavors.

Your point in the first part about it bineg considered a 10* play is valid, but if it wins you are only winning 5* amount so it would be graded as a 5* amount... I will keep Money Line records separate from the rest so there is no confusion. I can't remember a worse day in my entire 18-years of handicapping. I had four teams that were directly impacted ny injuries. But honestly, when you are up by 12 points with 5 minutes to go and lose, the DC should be held nig time accountable - even if there were injuries. But, as the NFL goes, we do win some games being on the other side.

As I said in the CBB thread. We went 6-0 ATS saturday, with five college 10* winners among them. Saturday was just one day and Sunday was the oppositie extreme. It is so important to let the games go.. win or lose.. and maintain as even a mental focus as possible and focus on the today's opportunities. That is one of the dominant piece of my handicapping principles contributing to my nearly two decades of success.

I learned that principle from an old-school Division-1 baseball coach. You see it in golfers, baseball players, especially pitchers, and in all of business. Take a look at Steven Jobs and his life and how he dealt with the severe business setbacks. Anyway... I will pull a quote of Tebow and tell you that I will work very hard to make the 60% ATS level by the end of the regular season.

[Mr stickaho]

I hope you can bounce back tonight. ill be checking back in to see your outlook on the seahawks game.

[Badboyz8]

I can't remember a worse day in my entire 18-years of handicapping. I had four teams that were directly impacted ny injuries. But honestly, when you are up by 12 points with 5 minutes to go and lose, the DC should be held nig time accountable - even if there were injuries. But, as the NFL goes, we do win some games being on the other side.

John,

We all have days like yours. But you're in the limelight and I'm sure you have alot of followers that just tail your picks blindly and take what you say as gospel. When you go 5-0, you are the hero and receive all the accolades, when you have a terrible day you have to deal with all the stuff that hits the fan.

There is no way that you can factor in and handicap a game with injuries. When Big Ben goes down, qb pulls a hammy or the Giants decided to sit out a player for "team infractions" you don't have this information before game time. You also can't cap bad calls from coaching i.e. taking wrong time outs, going for it 4th and 1 on their own 39 line are among some of them. Bad time management by quarterbacks and bad plays by players, running out of bounds and having to turn the ball over to the other team.

I cringed when you posted that you will be releasing 10* and 20* plays. I hope you're not doing it for the sake of doing "the chase" as we all have when we are down. The only way to win is with proper money management! If we start doing the martingale system of gambling then we are only asking for trouble.

Yes, I have followed a couple of your 10* plays and lost without doing any research on my own. Why? Because you could walk on water and have divine intervention. Now a little older and wiser I do more research on here and other forums before I tail a capper. After all it's my hard earned money that I am risking.

Wishing you the very best because I know you're going to catch a lot of grief as a result of yesterday's losing picks. Keep the spirit, chin up and go to church once in a while like Tebow, maybe the Man upstairs will also help you out.

All the best. Happy and Prosperous Holidays wishes.

[John Ryan]

John,

We all have days like yours. But you're in the limelight and I'm sure you have alot of followers that just tail your picks blindly and take what you say as gospel. When you go 5-0, you are the hero and receive all the accolades, when you have a terrible day you have to deal with all the stuff that hits the fan.

There is no way that you can factor in and handicap a game with injuries. When Big Ben goes down, qb pulls a hammy or the Giants decided to sit out a player for "team infractions" you don't have this information before game time. You also can't cap bad calls from coaching i.e. taking wrong time outs, going for it 4th and 1 on their own 39 line are among some of them. Bad time management by quarterbacks and bad plays by players, running out of bounds and having to turn the ball over to the other team.

I cringed when you posted that you will be releasing 10* and 20* plays. I hope you're not doing it for the sake of doing "the chase" as we all have when we are down. The only way to win is with proper money management! If we start doing the martingale system of gambling then we are only asking for trouble.

Yes, I have followed a couple of your 10* plays and lost without doing any research on my own. Why? Because you could walk on water and have divine intervention. Now a little older and wiser I do more research on here and other forums before I tail a capper. After all it's my hard earned money that I am risking.

Wishing you the very best because I know you're going to catch a lot of grief as a result of yesterday's losing picks. Keep the spirit, chin up and go to church once in a while like Tebow, maybe the Man upstairs will also help you out.

All the best. Happy and Prosperous Holidays wishes.

Thanks for all of the comments.In my first post, I did say there would be 10 and 20* releases. They are far more rare and the 5* plays are the foundation of the methodology and simulator projections. Believe me, the last thing I would do is chase.. and actually the part that does require the most focus is when you go 0-4 ATS and then have the valid play to wager Sunday night... It is always very tempting NOT to make another wager, but methodology is proven over 18 years and I have complete trust in it. Thanks for all of the comments.

[upscope]

I can't remember a worse day in my entire 18-years of handicapping. I had four teams that were directly impacted ny injuries.

As I said in the CBB thread. We went 6-0 ATS saturday, with five 10* winners among them.

You're saying that you have never gone 0-4 before?? You're joking right?? In 18 years of betting you have never gone 0-4?? I don't find that hard to believe I find that impossible to believe. Even the best handicapppers in the world go 0-4 from time to time. I simply don't believe that you haven't gone 0-4 in 18 years?? Sh#t, I go 0-4 every other day....lol

Secondly, you need to word your statements either correctly or more carefully. You DID NOT have "five 10* winners" among your 5-0 CBB Saturday. You had two 10* winners amongst them. You need to understand the importance of deception a little more clearly. It may have been an accident or poor choice of sentence structure but it is simply unfair of you to deceive or attempt to deceive the lesser informed on this forum. Keeping accurate records & making correct statements regarding those records goes a long way??

As far as the 10.5* to win 5* Dal ML play counting as a 5* play all I can do is chuckle @ that.

[MikeInFL]

It has been a hard day, but a little less painful having had a perfect 5-0 ATS CBB day day yesterday and the win on Army to make it 6-0 ATS. So, I like Dallas on the second half line listed as Dallas -2... I would not do more than a 3* amount.. Many of you already have a bout a 10.5 star amount using the money line on Dallas and adding more risk greater than a 3* amount compounds the potential loss.

It is getting to the point in the season where injuries will have a major effect on the outcome of selections. for the fourth time today we have three offensive players OUT of a game. New center for Dallas, but he did a great job picking up the zone blitz the two times the Giants came at him.

Sorry for the poor performance today. We will still be at 60% ATS or better by the end of the regular season.

John - I'm happy that you had a 5-0 CBB day, but for those of us that only bet the NFL it did not make it less painful.

[illios]

John - I'm happy that you had a 5-0 CBB day, but for those of us that only bet the NFL it did not make it less painful.

Agreed.

[John Ryan]

You're saying that you have never gone 0-4 before?? You're joking right?? In 18 years of betting you have never gone 0-4?? I don't find that hard to believe I find that impossible to believe. Even the best handicapppers in the world go 0-4 from time to time. I simply don't believe that you haven't gone 0-4 in 18 years?? Sh#t, I go 0-4 every other day....lol

Secondly, you need to word your statements either correctly or more carefully. You DID NOT have "five 10* winners" among your 5-0 CBB Saturday. You had two 10* winners amongst them. You need to understand the importance of deception a little more clearly. It may have been an accident or poor choice of sentence structure but it is simply unfair of you to deceive or attempt to deceive the lesser informed on this forum. Keeping accurate records & making correct statements regarding those records goes a long way??

As far as the 10.5* to win 5* Dal ML play counting as a 5* play all I can do is chuckle @ that.

First, I would never attempt to deceive anyone. What do I have to gain by that? Also, i stated I will keep a separate money line tally that shows units lost.... for example if the betting line was -210 and I stated that it was to win a 5* unit amount than it will show 0-1 losing 10.4 units. And for the CBB thread, I had stated there 'correctly' that I had won both 10* plays and the record there is listed as such. I appreciate your suggestions and will add them in future threads to clarify more specifically. I do, however, believe , that for the ones following me,, they understand what I do mean. My point too, was not to diminish in any way the poor day yesterday, but to show that it is the combination of ALL SPORTS and the discipline behind the whole 'ball of wax' that produces the greatest returns. It is unusual to go 7-0 for example in one sport then turn around within 24 hours and give it all back and then some. Thanks.

[John Ryan]

31-26 ATS with 5* plays, 4-3 ATS with 10* plays and 2-1 with the 20* Titans. Plus, 0-1 losing 10.4 units with the Dallas play last night December 11, 2011. I'll keep the money line plays separate as they need to reflect the unit differentials from that of regular line betting ATS. So, I have my work cut out now to reach our season starting goal of 60% ATS.

Will be around 7:00 with possible Monday Night Plays. In the meantime the thread needs to hear how you see this game tonight. If it is a play to avoid or is this one to load up on in your opinions. Remember, your play today can have no bearing or emotional connection to the results of the previous day. Discipline is even more important when running HOT and when running ICE COLD.

Thanks..

[sweethook]

monday night money game lets roll john , gl

[John Ryan]

For example: Will these offenses open up their passing games? These are two of the most conservative offenses in the league and neither team seems willing to stretch the field. All of the dink-and-dunk passes that we see are easy to close on and defend and that allows defenses to sit back in coverage schemes with three- and four-man rushes, keeping the passing game in front of them. Such a conservative offensive approach requires multi-play drives and neither team has shown it can do that consistently.

Can any of these offenses convert on third downs? will it even matter how poorly the Rams team is playing? Should Seattle be favored by double digits?

[psufan]

Seahawks!

[psufan]

Btw, I think John Ryan is a competent handicapper. He knows football and his logic is sound. No one can hit all the time every weekend. If that were the case everyone would be considered a competent handicapper. His honesty and transparency I think only legitimizes his perception of his week to week picks.

[PickMeAwinner]

To me on paper the UNDER is the correct play for me, what do you think?

[burgi]

Seahawks ML and under 38 is ok??

[kcfyre35]

Both teams have been decimated by injuries. Seattle lost their best guard, and QB has torn pec. Jackson will be unable to get ball deep, plus no Rice. ZERO deep threat. Lynch will carry 20-25 times.
St Louie doesn't even know who'll play QB, Young OL, no deep threat, SJ will carry the load against a very stout Seattle D.
Seattle has scored 216 pts, allowed 246. Rams scored 140 while allowing 296. STL has allowed 396 more yds this year as well. I see the score : 21-6 or 21- 10 Seatlle. UNDER is a big play.
Sea is 7-4-1 ATS while 7-5 against O/U. STL is 2-10 ATS and 4-7-1 against O/U.
This game will be boring to watch for sure.

[kcfyre35]

Monday night

Both teams have been decimated by injuries. Seattle lost their best guard, and QB has torn pec. Jackson will be unable to get ball deep, plus no Rice. ZERO deep threat. Lynch will carry 20-25 times.
St Louie doesn't even know who'll play QB, Young OL, no deep threat, SJ will carry the load against a very stout Seattle D.
Seattle has scored 216 pts, allowed 246. Rams scored 140 while allowing 296. STL has allowed 396 more yds this year as well. I see the score : 21-6 or 21- 10 Seatlle. UNDER is a big play.
Sea is 7-4-1 ATS while 7-5 against O/U. STL is 2-10 ATS and 4-7-1 against O/U.
This game will be boring to watch for sure.

[kcfyre35]

Sorry 4 dbl post. iPad jacked up

[Jedi Mind Picks]

ESPN's Chris Mortenson reports today(3pm) that the Rams expect Bradford to play but is still a game time decision (warm ups)
I heard that Kellen Clemens has played well in practice this week maybe if Bradforddosent make it we see him instead of Tom Brandstater...

[spike1519]

I'm takin seahawks -9.5 tonight. St Louis is hurting at Q.b and They seem to be falling apart every week. Seattles stadium always gives Seattle an edge I feel it gives about 3.5 points per game having experienced it myself I know that opposing teams dread playing there. If St Lous play's Bradford then I think the head coach is literally risking this Q.B's future for one game. He hasn't practiced all week and took light snaps on saturday and was visibly hurting during that so they will probably play Clemens who just signed and learning a new system combined with the confusion Centurylink field puts on opposing teams its a recipe for disaster either way. This game will go one of 2 way's in my opinion the Hawks dominate and its a blowout or the Hawks shoot themselves in the foot either way it's up to the Seahawks to take this game big or small. I'm just hoping it's by more than 2 scores........spike.............

[rockhardfister]

Both teams have been decimated by injuries. Seattle lost their best guard, and QB has torn pec. Jackson will be unable to get ball deep, plus no Rice. ZERO deep threat. Lynch will carry 20-25 times.
St Louie doesn't even know who'll play QB, Young OL, no deep threat, SJ will carry the load against a very stout Seattle D.
Seattle has scored 216 pts, allowed 246. Rams scored 140 while allowing 296. STL has allowed 396 more yds this year as well. I see the score : 21-6 or 21- 10 Seatlle. UNDER is a big play.
Sea is 7-4-1 ATS while 7-5 against O/U. STL is 2-10 ATS and 4-7-1 against O/U.
This game will be boring to watch for sure.

I cant bet the Under on a shit game like this. All it takes is defensive score, a special teams score or some other wackiness.

[Jedi Mind Picks]

Yeah it looks very likely that Bradford starts...

[rockhardfister]

Rams Cover...that is all.

[spike1519]

John - I'm happy that you had a 5-0 CBB day, but for those of us that only bet the NFL it did not make it less painful.

people need to take some responsibility for there own bet's as well. I personally follow John's advise but don't just wait till he put's out his pick's and blindly bet them. This week I made all my N.F.L bets on tuesday when the lines first came out. Then further researched them all week. If you wanna be a good capper like John this is what you have to do learn to cap games. It took me three years to get to where I could win horse races consistantly and show profit on the meets. All good capper's have bad run's and if your only betting N.F.L then your betting the tightest lines there are in sport's betting and can expect to lose alot of games. vegas doesn't build multi million dollar hotels on huge gambles they only need about a 1% advantage to pay for them not to mention the vig your paying your book. I know it's tough to swallow a bad week but this is a marathon not a sprint. Let's stick with the girl we brought to the dance and engourage John he's don us all a huge favor this year and I for one will stick by him.................spike............... .........

[PickMeAwinner]

I agree spike, John has been great, I don't always agree with all his plays and it helped me stay on course this season. If my homework goes against him I just skip or fade. You must go with what you think is correct. Thanks John for the great season.

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

What is the record for 10-10.5 point underdogs in 2011. They have been cashing all year and especially in prime time games!

[jjaycuny]

Any thoughts on tonights game John? I was too late on your CBB pick

[fecgp40]

So which is it? Did John have five 10* winners in CBB or only two? I know he went 5-0, just want to clarify the unit size. Thanks.

[edmskid]

Hey John, throwing my voice of support for you in there. One of the other posters put it out there that he doesn't always tail, just follows looking for some insight, advice, and of course the should-be-taken-with-a-pound-of-any-given-sunday-salt simulator/statistical view. So, while I read what you said about the cowgirls, I went hard in the other direction, just based on comparing Eli to Romo. One tends to thrive under the gun from Dec. on, the other one tends to fold. Mind you, Romo put his points up, the pass rush was too bagged or something. 0-4 Days have a great upside though - learning and teaching money management.

Notwithstanding all that, I like the Seahags tonight, but there may not be enough total points to get that spread, so I like them -6.5 at the half. 12th man is a big factor there, so I could actually see them blanking the Rams, I'm also going to take the U13,5 on the Rams team total. I could be totally off my nut, but I'm thinking like a 10-3 Seattle final score. That's all gut. Looking forward to what the numbers say.

edmskid