NE Patriots in '08

[arpeggiomeister]

Being from Maine, I am a NE Patriots fan. I am very green when it comes to handi-capping and wanted to hear the thoughts of more experienced betters on some of my observations:

1 - Despite their almost perfect season I noticed a very pronounced decline in NE's game towards the second half of the season. They almost lost to the Baltimore Ravens (who stunk out loud last year). As the point spreads grew more ridiculous the actual margin of their wins was rapidly decreasing. I may be way off the mark but I am wondering if an aging defense played a big part of it. I'm not saying that they played poorly, but it seemed that the Giants were able to move the ball very effectively on them, and not just in the Super Bowl. Week 17 was a nail-biter for any Pats fan. I am wondering if they are slipping from great to good.

2 - How will the loss of Asante Samuels affect them? I recently read that they let go of their kicker as well.

3 - At what point do you start getting leary of the point spread? For example: The Pats are currently 14.5 favorites to beat the KC Chiefs. It will be interesting to see where spread is at in a couple months. At what point would you take the underdogs?

[SBR Lou]

Very good post and fair questions.

One thing I wouldn't read too much into is their second half decline. You can't steamroll every single week and double or even triple the spread, they were bound to come back down to earth as teams started making more key adjustments against them. They addressed some of their needs already through the draft, and even with the age I say they are an experienced enough defense to put up respectable numbers.

With better d line play I think the loss of Asante cancels out some, obviously it's never good losing a talent like him but I wouldn't go into this year thinking they are going to struggle because of his absence.

I would be leery of their inflated point spreads right now, because you don't want to go into a year already having to give up double digit points, it's just not a sound decision IMO. If you really want some action as a fan bud, just plop down a few bucks on their season win total or AFC Championship/or SB future.

Look forward to reading more of your football thoughts.

[slacker00]

Bet the Pats until they give us a reason to quit. They are going to come screaming out of the gate, this offense isn't slowing down until they hit into a real defense. That won't happen until at least week 6 when the Chargers go to NE.

Bottom line, the line for the opener should be closer to Pats -20. Take the grease before there is a correction. Pats to cover against the Chiefs is my play of the week for week 1.

Stay away from the futures lines, though, unless you can find something sponge cake soft. So much vig built into those lines most of the time, plus your money being tied up forever. Plus I think the season wins total is around 12 1/2 which is too risky to play either way. Maybe playing them to win the SB could pay off, but we all saw what happened last year. Wierd stuff can happen.

[SBR Lou]

Good post Slacker. I think there may be money to be made by betting their SB future, and fading them in the AFC championship game to cover your wager just in case. Reasoning is, should they beat presumably Indy or SD, there's no way a BB coached team is choking two straight years in the SB.

[slacker00]

Good post Slacker. I think there may be money to be made by betting their SB future, and fading them in the AFC championship game to cover your wager just in case. Reasoning is, should they beat presumably Indy or SD, there's no way a BB coached team is choking two straight years in the SB.

Yeah, I agree. Some itching feeling in my gut says that the Pats are going to do it this year.

At the current line, +355, NE is blockbuster value if you think they can snag a first round bye. Based on their schedule, I don't know how they don't do that.

[arpeggiomeister]

Thanks for your thoughts. I have learned a lot be reading the thoughts of those who post on this forum.