NFL Future Play CASH THIS ONE

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  • Louisvillekid1
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-17-07
    • 52143

    #1
    NFL Future Play CASH THIS ONE
    TO WIN NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

    Dallas -180 . . . Risking $400 to win $222

    Minnesota +3000 . . . Risking $100 to win $3000

    Im really liking how the vikings are playing ball right now, so i figure its worth a shot. They have a winnable last 4 games against SF, CHI, DEN, and WASH. And after they get the wild card they would likely be matchup up against seattle a team they could defintely beat. With the way AP is running the ball (maybe the best rookie ever) and back up Chester Taylor is a stud also, why not. T Jackson is improving every week, making plays with his feet, and not turning the ball over. They also have very solid D especially against the run. Dallas looks unbeatable in the NFC at this point so if that holds true i still cash $122 and if there is an upset why not this viking team might be on a 7 game winning streak heading into the playoffs. If thats the case I'm looking at $3K.

    Thoughts?
  • jrcaces
    SBR Sharp
    • 08-25-07
    • 284

    #2
    I like it, looks like easy money. GL
    Comment
    • outdrawed
      SBR Sharp
      • 11-21-07
      • 388

      #3
      Not a fan of Cowboys bet. You really think they're >64% to go to the SB? That's >80% per game.
      Comment
      • Louisvillekid1
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-17-07
        • 52143

        #4
        Who is going to beat them? The answer is the only team that can is themselves. They have been pretty dominant all year long, Always shows up for the biggest games against the strongest teams
        Comment
        • dwaechte
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 08-27-07
          • 5481

          #5
          I think Dallas at -180 has fairly good value. Theyve got Homefield all but locked up, and they've already shown they can beat the Packers. Them winning two home games come playoff time doesn't seem like much of a stretch.
          Comment
          • outdrawed
            SBR Sharp
            • 11-21-07
            • 388

            #6
            Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
            Who is going to beat them? The answer is the only team that can is themselves. They have been pretty dominant all year long, Always shows up for the biggest games against the strongest teams
            Anybody in the playoffs? 80% is equivalent to about a 10 point spread. You really think Dallas will be a 10 point favorite over Seattle and GB (assuming Seattle and GB win their first games.) I don't.
            Comment
            • Louisvillekid1
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 10-17-07
              • 52143

              #7
              Well they were -8 against GB earlier this season and smoked them, and seattle is worse than GB. . . I'm really curious fo who you think is going to the NFC Championship then?
              Comment
              • dwaechte
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 08-27-07
                • 5481

                #8
                Originally posted by outdrawed
                Anybody in the playoffs? 80% is equivalent to about a 10 point spread. You really think Dallas will be a 10 point favorite over Seattle and GB (assuming Seattle and GB win their first games.) I don't.
                I think 10 points would be a pretty reasonable spread for those games. Dallas just beat GB by 10 and Seattle is so inconsistent I cant see them putting up a better fight than GB.
                Comment
                • outdrawed
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 11-21-07
                  • 388

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
                  Well they were -8 against GB earlier this season and smoked them, and seattle is worse than GB. . . I'm really curious fo who you think is going to the NFC Championship then?
                  You're being awfully results oriented for one game. Interesting note, GB is currently an 11 point favorite home favorite against Oakland. If you think the disparity between GB and Oakland is the same as the disparity between Dallas and GB, then yikes.

                  Who do I think will win the NFC Championship? I think Dallas has the best chance of all the teams, but they certainly aren't going to win it 64% of the time.
                  Comment
                  • area51steve
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 06-01-07
                    • 725

                    #10
                    That dallas bet sounds reasonable but the vikings are +3000 for a reason. The vikings will choke against good teams like they always do. Look how the packers beat them down this year.
                    Comment
                    • Louisvillekid1
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 10-17-07
                      • 52143

                      #11
                      Both teams were 10-1 going into the game, and the line was -8, you think after they dismantled them the line is going to drop? . . Can't compare point spreads with completly different matchup's. Every situation is different, like if Dal is -11 this week also against the lions, when GB played them i think the line was 3.5, but that doesn't matter. Bottom line you got all these %'s and point spreads into this topic when bottom line your agreeing they should win this NFC going away. Also the cowboys play allows me to make a small profit if they hold up, while at the same time taking a gamble for free in a sense with the vikes to make a big profit.
                      Comment
                      • outdrawed
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 11-21-07
                        • 388

                        #12
                        Dal -11 is a joke of a line this week. Last week's line of -7 was pretty bad too, but I think that was heavily influenced by GB's defensive injuries that week.

                        And if you're betting a line of -180 just because you think it'll happen >50% of the time which is what it sounds like, then haha.

                        Dallas is the favorite, for sure. That doesn't justify taking them at -180 at all.
                        Comment
                        • robmpink
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 01-09-07
                          • 13205

                          #13
                          I would put a bet on Tampa to win the NFC.
                          Comment
                          • outdrawed
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 11-21-07
                            • 388

                            #14
                            Tampa's not terrible at 8/1.
                            Comment
                            • outdrawed
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 11-21-07
                              • 388

                              #15
                              Also, if for whatever reason you don't believe me on Dallas, then I reallllly hope you put money down on Dallas winning the Super Bowl at 5/1.
                              Comment
                              • Louisvillekid1
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 10-17-07
                                • 52143

                                #16
                                Tampa has no chance. . .

                                outdrawed,

                                Who is your favorite NFL team?

                                I don't think dallas will win 50% of the time, i think its almost a sure thing, what is going to stop them. . .Noone in the NFC has beat them yet, and probaly won't either. . .
                                Comment
                                • Louisvillekid1
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 10-17-07
                                  • 52143

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by outdrawed
                                  Also, if for whatever reason you don't believe me on Dallas, then I reallllly hope you put money down on Dallas winning the Super Bowl at 5/1.
                                  I don't think dallas will win the super bowl
                                  Comment
                                  • outdrawed
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 11-21-07
                                    • 388

                                    #18
                                    So let me get this straight.

                                    You think Dallas is >64% to go to the Super Bowl, and less than 25% to win that game.

                                    Wow.
                                    Comment
                                    • outdrawed
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 11-21-07
                                      • 388

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
                                      Tampa has no chance. . .

                                      outdrawed,

                                      Who is your favorite NFL team?

                                      I don't think dallas will win 50% of the time, i think its almost a sure thing, what is going to stop them. . .Noone in the NFC has beat them yet, and probaly won't either. . .

                                      LOL, there's a reason no team has gone undefeated in over 30 years. Hell, my Pats may be the best team in NFL history, and they got about as lucky as hell to beat a very bad Baltimore team. Maybe this concept eludes you, but teams do, on occasion, lose to teams that are worse than them.
                                      Comment
                                      • Louisvillekid1
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 10-17-07
                                        • 52143

                                        #20
                                        Get these %'s out of your head, and just focus. . . The NFC is trash there is only one good established team (THE COWBOYS) and another team that is hot and on the rise (THE VIKINGS) . . . It seems like it is going to be the cowboys and the Pats are going to the super bowl, and NE has already proven their passing attack is too much for the cowboys secondary.

                                        Who is your favorite team?
                                        Comment
                                        • outdrawed
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 11-21-07
                                          • 388

                                          #21
                                          "Get these %'s out of your head"

                                          This tells me all I need to know. You cannot possibly be remotely serious about sports betting or having a debate about sports betting without having some possible knowledge about statistics. I'm done with this argument because I'm pretty sure I'd have better success explaining probability to a wall.
                                          Comment
                                          • Louisvillekid1
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 10-17-07
                                            • 52143

                                            #22
                                            Dude, are you kidding me?. . . telling me teams lose to worser teams, do u think im an idiot. . . .First of you are a pats fan and you know the only team close to competition is the cowboys and you don't want them in that game. . . Don't insult with that b/s post ,trying to talk down to me. Anybody can beat anybody of course! . . . MY PREDICTION IS SIMPLY THE COWBOYS WILL GO TO THE SUPER BOWL , AND I BET MOST WOULD AGREE WITH ME , AND -180 IS NOT A HORRIBLE PRICE.
                                            Comment
                                            • Louisvillekid1
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 10-17-07
                                              • 52143

                                              #23
                                              MATH is a big part of my sports betting kid, however i do not live and die soley by it! . . I factor in everything, using all the information at hand to make the best decision. . .
                                              Comment
                                              • roasthawg
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 11-09-07
                                                • 2990

                                                #24
                                                vikes bet might as well be +1,000,000,000...they aren't goin to the sb. dalllas is about fifty fifty imo, as we all know gb is the competition...i'll probably ride with gb and the points again in the rematch but we'll cross that bridge when the time comes.
                                                Comment
                                                • Louisvillekid1
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 10-17-07
                                                  • 52143

                                                  #25
                                                  I think Dallas has just a good chance ,if not more, than the pats do, because of the tougher comp in the AFC mostly. . .
                                                  Comment
                                                  • idontlikerocks
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 10-09-07
                                                    • 571

                                                    #26
                                                    i think if the vikes win it you will be +2600? don't u lose the dallas bet if the vikes win? anyhows i'm certain you would be happy with that result. it sounds like fun which is what most of what we do should be about...... maybe better odds on dallas parleying the money lines in the playoffs
                                                    Comment
                                                    • slacker00
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 10-06-05
                                                      • 12262

                                                      #27
                                                      I like the Cowboys & Vikings to have a decent shot on the NFC side, but not at these odds. Don't sleep on the Bucs, Hawks, Pack, etc. They've got as good a shot as the boys when taken together.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • LT Profits
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 10-27-06
                                                        • 90963

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by outdrawed
                                                        Not a fan of Cowboys bet. You really think they're >64% to go to the SB? That's >80% per game.

                                                        I think they are, yes. There isn't a team close to them in the NFC, as I think the Packers are a fraud and the rest of the conference sucks.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • LT Profits
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 10-27-06
                                                          • 90963

                                                          #29
                                                          Oh and I also agree with Louisvillekid1 that the Vikings are the best of the longshots.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • outdrawed
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 11-21-07
                                                            • 388

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Louisvillekid1
                                                            MATH is a big part of my sports betting kid, however i do not live and die soley by it! . . I factor in everything, using all the information at hand to make the best decision. . .
                                                            If this was true you wouldn't have said something like "stop using percentages" or whatever it was you said. The way to do this is simple. Do you think Dallas is >80% to win each game before the SB. If yes, then go nuts at -180, but I'm pretty sure you're wrong there.

                                                            And if you think Dallas is >80% to win those games, but won't bet them to win the SB at 5-1, then you obviously think they are less than 25% to win assuming they get to that game. Once again, if you think they are less than 25%, then stay off of Dallas, but as before, I'm pretty sure you're wrong.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • hanco21
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-19-06
                                                              • 3414

                                                              #31
                                                              Odds definitely aren't in your favor. You are leaving out one team that is starting to round into form and they could beat Dallas.

                                                              Seattle Seahawks has a good chance as any to win the NFC
                                                              Comment
                                                              • budhaful
                                                                SBR Rookie
                                                                • 11-18-07
                                                                • 11

                                                                #32
                                                                Not exactly easy money, but it could happen!

                                                                WVU vs Pitt .. i got it at +3200 ML a couple weeks ago. I was very pleased...

                                                                Take a shot, Columbus did and look where we are now.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Louisvillekid1
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 10-17-07
                                                                  • 52143

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by hanco21
                                                                  Odds definitely aren't in your favor. You are leaving out one team that is starting to round into form and they could beat Dallas.

                                                                  Seattle Seahawks has a good chance as any to win the NFC

                                                                  I think seattle has beat one winning team all season. . . What makes you make this comment? . . . They are been very unimpressive this year. . . They take advantage of a weak division which basically give them an auto 4-6 wins every year. . . They can't go into lambeau or texas and win. . .

                                                                  If they have as good a chance as any play them at +840 . . .
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • slacker00
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 10-06-05
                                                                    • 12262

                                                                    #34
                                                                    I see Seahawks at +1015 right now at the Greek. I really hate the Seahawks' chances, but that's not bad value.

                                                                    I also see value in the Redskins +8050 at the Greek. Granted, the 'skins have a lot of work just to get into the playoffs, but once in, I don't question the toughness of this team even with a backup QB.

                                                                    In both of these situations, I like the savvy of veteran coaches that know how to win in the playoffs. The bad thing, they'll both be going through the wildcard round and probably into two very tough road games in Dallas & GB. But, we've seen with the Colts & Steelers that it can be done. I don't think GB & Dallas are unbeatable even at home. If I can get big enough odds with some of these "scrappy" teams, I'll bite.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • MJFtheGenius
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 05-31-07
                                                                      • 7257

                                                                      #35
                                                                      How bout Dem Cowboys!!!!!!!!!!!
                                                                      Comment
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