imgv94 NFL for Week 11 (Record: 28-38 -11.81 Units) 5½ Unit Play

[imgv94]

Record: 28-38 -11.81 Units


Almost had a huge six unit week but Peyton decided to throw six INTs. It's been a tough season to swallow where a lot of things just haven't gone my way. Hopefully my big wager this week comes through.

Here is a link to where I mentioned this play yesterday immediately after the lines came out.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/47085-giants-1-5-vs-lions-wow.html

I'm sorry that I'm posting a line that is not available anymore, would of posted this last night but I was bummed out over last nights game so I said **** it, sometimes lines go the other way too.

I still think Giants -2.5 is a solid bet. But hey I'm down almost 12 units in the regular season so what do I know?




2* Giants +1
1* Giants +1.5


2* Teaser -120
Giants +8
Steelers -2.5

0.5 PARLAY +131
Seahawks 11/12 game vs 49ers
Giants +1


Main reasoning for liking this play

Jon Kitna has been sacked 37 times this season..

Giants Defense:
Osi Umenyiora 9.0 Sacks
Justin Tuck 7.0 Sacks
Michael Strahan 5.0 Sacks
Mathias Kiwanuka 4.5 Sacks

Giants lead the NFL with 32 Sacks

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?archive=false&conference=null&role=OPP&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=SACKS&season=2007&seasonType=REG&tabSeq=2&qualified=true&Submit=Find

A lot of people are looking at the fact that the Lions are 4-0 @ Home this season. Who do they defeat though?

Vikings
Bears
Bucs
Broncos

Below average teams..


Before losing to the best team in the NFC, the Giants were on a six game winning streak outscoring their opponets 152-79 and winning three games on the road during that span.

Giants three defeats this season have come to the 8-1 Cowboys twice and the 8-1 Packers.

With the Giants losing their last game it should help them to get motivated enough avoiding any kind of letdown or coming out flat.


Giants are pretty solid on defense, they are ranked 9th in both rushing and passing.

Lions however are RANKED 30th vs PASS
they are ranked 8th vs RUN.


Well hopefully everything works out. GL everyone and sorry for sucking so bad this season.. Hopefully I can cut the deficit..

Thanks for not bashing me too much.

[SBR Lou]

I liked it last night, but I wanted to sleep on it since the Colts loss irritated me. I can swallow a loss but one in that fashion annoyed me.

The movement sucked on this line, had I anticipated such a shift so early I would have grabbed it last night. Good luck cashing your ticket.

[HAPPY BOY]

Gabe I'm almost willing to drink the cool aid on the G-men, but after getting fvcked on the Lions/Cards game (another line that looked great) I'm a little pessimistic. Pro ably will take the Giants, just don't know how big. Gl to all of us bro!

[imgv94]

I liked it last night, but I wanted to sleep on it since the Colts loss irritated me. I can swallow a loss but one in that fashion annoyed me.

I was bummed all night about it. It's better to be lucky then good..

The movement sucked on this line, had I anticipated such a shift so early I would have grabbed it last night. Good luck cashing your ticket.

I still think Giants -2.5 is a great bet. I say take it **** it.

[imgv94]

Gabe I'm almost willing to drink the cool aid on the G-men, but after getting fvcked on the Lions/Cards game (another line that looked great) I'm a little pessimistic. Pro ably will take the Giants, just don't know how big. Gl to all of us bro!

Luck is definitely something I need in the NFL. I keep thinking this is going to be the week, here it is but BOOM something happens and lose a play I should of won..

May GOD BLESS the Giants. I put them in my avatar for good luck..

Take care HAPPY BOY..

[prop]

The Giants 6 wins did not come against any good teams either.

Sun 9/23 at Washington W 24-17
Sun 9/30 Philadelphia W 16-3
Sun 10/7 NY Jets W 35-24
Mon 10/15 at Atlanta W 31-10
Sun 10/21 San Francisco W 33-15
Sun 10/28 at Miami W 13-10

The only of those teams with a winning record is 5-4 Redskins
Falcons, Jets, Dolphins and 49ers for sure in the 6-7 teams worst teams in the league.

I capped this game as a total coin flip in Detroit, but decided detroit was worth a play at -105 PK or better.

At +3 -119, this line seems to good to be true to me.

[imgv94]

The Giants 6 wins did not come against any good teams either.

Sun 9/23 at Washington W 24-17
Sun 9/30 Philadelphia W 16-3

Both those teams killed the Lions
Philly beat the Lions 56-21
Redskins beat the Lions 34-3

Sun 10/7 NY Jets W 35-24
Mon 10/15 at Atlanta W 31-10
Sun 10/21 San Francisco W 33-15
Sun 10/28 at Miami W 13-10

The only of those teams with a winning record is 5-4 Redskins
Falcons, Jets, Dolphins and 49ers for sure in the 6-7 teams worst teams in the league.

What more do you want from them? They won the first three games by DD's and although they won by only three they basically dominated Miami..

I capped this game as a total coin flip in Detroit, but decided detroit was worth a play at -105 PK or better.

At +3 -119, this line seems to good to be true to me.

I respect you prop, but we really disagree on this one..

GL

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

GV,

Love this play bro! I hit it up for a few units last night just because I saw it was on your AVATAR and you have been on fire with avatar plays lately! I'm going with my first one this week man! Should tail on this Jags play that I'm on... I know its against your Chargers, but I really think the Jags will take them to town! Check out my post bud!

Let's Go Gents!

[Checkerboard]

Good luck for sure img, I'm staying away; my gut says it smells, but I'll definitely be rootin' this one in for you and there's no interest in my part in taking the Lions.

[imgv94]

Chargers are horrible bro I don't blame you for one second..

I'll probably join you. U might want to look at the Texans too, they are at home and getting Andre Johnson back this week after missing 7 weeks.

Texans should win bro.

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

Chargers are horrible bro I don't blame you for one second..

I'll probably join you. U might want to look at the Texans too, they are at home and getting Andre Johnson back this week after missing 7 weeks.

Texans should win bro.

I'll have to look into that Texans game a little more... The AINTS are so up and down that I don't know... This would be their UP week since they got beat by the fvcking Rams @ home and the week prior beat the fvck outta the Jags! The AINTS make NO SENSE what so ever to me this year... Thats why they be watchin @ home come playoff time!

[prop]

Well one of us has to win on the spread. I guess there is a small margin where we can both win.

At the very least I hope we both win this teaser leg.
I got the Lions +10 with Packers -2.5 and Eagles -3
Made it a 3 teamer so I'll still win some on 2 wins + 1 push should that happen on one of them.

I hope your ass gets beat on the regular pick, but its nothing against you but wish you good luck on the teaser so long as i cover too

[joeygats]

detroit will win take the moneyline gl this weekend

[Checkerboard]

detroit will win take the moneyline gl this weekend

Not gonna play this NYG/DET matchup either way, but good luck to all including img with the big play on NYG.

[imgv94]

ADDING:

1.5* Texans PK -114

Andre Johnson really helps this offense. Matt Schaub played a lot better when he was in the lineup. Saints secondary at times looks clueless.

Saints haven't impressed me at all. Like the line movement in this one as well

GL

[mark wahlberg]

great writeup imgv ive been following your plays you have been unlucky alot

[BLazin20]

Detroit is a fraud.

[CrapsMyWay]

Saints on the road as a dog is a good bet for me. Saints will match up well with Houston. I'll' also be betting on the Rams this week toooo....both will roll....Good luck Everyone!

[Seattle Slew]

I like the Saints here as well. They're a better road team than home team and could score 30 in this game. I think it'll be a high-scoring game, like 30-27.

Saints on the road as a dog is a good bet for me. Saints will match up well with Houston. I'll' also be betting on the Rams this week toooo....both will roll....Good luck Everyone!

[onlooker]

Hey IMG. Just as long as that Giants at Lions game stays UNDER 49.

[imgv94]

I like the Saints here as well. They're a better road team than home team and could score 30 in this game. I think it'll be a high-scoring game, like 30-27.

I like the over as well. Both teams have shitty defenses and better than efficent offenses. I wouldn't be surprised if 40 is scored by a team.

[Doc JS]

Detroit is a fraud.

I suspect that you're probably correct.

We see this in the NFL every year. Team with a last place schedule is a little better the following year gets fat on a weak schedule. The Lions seem to be in that mold this year.

I think they're one of those teams who have given up more points than they've scored. That is not a recipe for long term success.

That having been said, I do think they're a better team at home than they are on the road.

[tblues2005]

imgv,

Good Luck on Houston, I know they had a week off and that will help them this week against a terrible New Orleans defense that allowed 37 points to the winless Rams last week. So I agree with you that Houston could win this one and they had the extra week to prepare for it too.

[imgv94]

ADDING:

0.5* Washington +7 1st half.

GL everyone.

[pavyracer]

Detroit is a fraud.

Great analysis. Keep it up!

[yahoonino]

new orleans lost to a terreble rams team,,,,whach out on this one,,,,new orleans is the pick here,,the odds maker want you to take houston,,,is a trap

[bmac]

BOL imgv

[babaoriley]

Best of luck, IMG, though I have to admit that I took Detroit ML at +130. I think both these teams are frauds and while I certainly see the potential for Detroit to go in Martz-mode, leaving Kitna fully exposed for Osi and co., I think he had to learn his lesson last week. The one thing that concerns me is the talk of Kevin Jones' foot hurting so badly that the Lions considered benching him this week, so he'd be good for the Thanksgiving game in 5 days. Duckett just isn't a capable runner between the 20's and if KJ is hurt and they go into Martz-mode, I look for the G-Men to pound Kitna. We'll see, maybe the Giants win by 2 and we both win. Not one of my biggest plays (Over of Seattle-Chicago at 37.5 was my biggest play) but still a play.

[imgv94]

ADDING:

0.5* Lions PK -105 (2nd Half)

God Bless the Giants.

[imgv94]

Hell yeah baby!!

[imgv94]

I deserved a big day like this..

[Peyton2MarvinN06]

Hell yeah GV! We both cashed big today bro! I hit the Jags! Wish you woulda jumped on board with me! Just had a feeling on them today! I hit the Giants with ya, JVille, and I have Chicago and Tennessee pending! Nice job today bro!

[babaoriley]

Best of luck, IMG, though I have to admit that I took Detroit ML at +130. I think both these teams are frauds and while I certainly see the potential for Detroit to go in Martz-mode, leaving Kitna fully exposed for Osi and co., I think he had to learn his lesson last week. The one thing that concerns me is the talk of Kevin Jones' foot hurting so badly that the Lions considered benching him this week, so he'd be good for the Thanksgiving game in 5 days. Duckett just isn't a capable runner between the 20's and if KJ is hurt and they go into Martz-mode, I look for the G-Men to pound Kitna. We'll see, maybe the Giants win by 2 and we both win. Not one of my biggest plays (Over of Seattle-Chicago at 37.5 was my biggest play) but still a play.

Congrats to all the Giants backers. Still thought that Detroit should have won though and would have if they wouldn't have abandoned the run... Martz is a clown and only rushing 11 times was a joke, especially after starting the game with 4 rushes for 19 yards on the first four plays. They went pass first, couldn't convert TO's into points and just lost the game. It was a good win for you guys, though, so congrats on a good win in a screwy season.

My big bet hit also, so I feel ok about the Lions choking. Then again, I factored in the Martz element and rather than deciding to go with the higher probability outcome (Martz airing it out), I chose to gamble under the assumption that he would act rationally and establish the running game. Bad move as always.

[imgv94]

Giants were getting fuked by refs the entire game and had a 13pt lead with 4 mins left and you think they should of lost?

baba,

I watched the game and trust me the Giants were the better team and won fair and square. How bout the injuries the Giants endured?

[imgv94]

2* Giants +1 **WON**
1* Giants +1.5 **WON**


2* Teaser -120 **LOST**
Giants +8
Steelers -2.5

1.5* Texans PK -114 **WON**


0.5 PARLAY +131 **WON**
Seahawks 11/12 game vs 49ers
Giants +1

0.5* Lions PK -105 (2nd Half) **WON**

0.5* Washington +7 1st half **WON**


6-1 +3.76 Units

I'm so pissed with the Steelers game. Bad luck everyweek