Anyone considering Redskins +17 this week?

Patrick McIrish · 10-23-07, 03:18 AM

Any have +17 right now other than BoDog? I see them at -115, anyone else?

And yes I agree, this will certainly be one of my plays. All that exposure from last game has driven this line way too far up IMO.

imgv94 · 10-23-07, 03:21 AM

This line is too high. 5 Dimes has +17 dont they?

Patrick McIrish · 10-23-07, 03:24 AM

Possibly. I show 16- right now but been having problems with some of the feeds. I don't want to lay the extra juice at BoDog but don't want to lose the 17, that's a great number for this game.

imgv94 · 10-23-07, 03:29 AM

I think 17 will be available at some point.

slacker00 · 10-23-07, 04:16 AM

17 is a big number and hard to ignore, but seriously, NE coulda won by 50 this last weekend. You're really betting on a backdoor cover, not on the Redskins defense. Just remember that.

imgv94 · 10-23-07, 04:23 AM

Redskins look like a pretty decent team. New England has covered what 7 straight? Law of average says that won't last.

slacker00 · 10-23-07, 04:52 AM

Originally posted by imgv94

Redskins look like a pretty decent team. New England has covered what 7 straight? Law of average says that won't last.

I like the Redskins, in general. NE is just a freak of nature, this year. Throw out the laws, the stats, the trends.

Betting against Brady & Moss is like throwing money away. Did you see that Brady to Moss TD this weekend? Moss looked more like an interceptor than the WR on that play. When Moss plays like that, it's lights out. Nevermind the fact NE would be a favorite to win the Super Bowl without Moss.

For the Redskins to cover, Brady would have to be knocked out of the game. If you checked last week's game, you'll notice Belichick isn't comfortable with less than a 4 score lead. That means, the 17 should be safe.

imgv94 · 10-23-07, 05:07 AM

Again this is the best defense the Pats have seen. If Washington's smart they will do their best to make this a slow game. Run the ball keep it out of Brady's hands etc.

I just hope Campbell doesn't fold under pressure.

slacker00 · 10-23-07, 05:15 AM

Originally posted by imgv94

Again this is the best defense the Pats have seen. If Washington's smart they will do their best to make this a slow game. Run the ball keep it out of Brady's hands etc.

I just hope Campbell doesn't fold under pressure.

The Pats are going to get their points against any defense. There's no defense that can stop this offensive attack.

The only hope is to have an opposing offense that can play ball control to keep the Pats offense on the sideline and still put points on the board. I'm not sure the Washington offense is quite to this level just yet. Granted, Gibbs has the knowhow to put this kind of game plan together. I just don't think the Redskins as a team are there yet. Just to cover, Campbell will have to play flawlessly. Do you really want to bet on Campbell against the Pats D?

imgv94 · 10-23-07, 05:32 AM

Yeah why not? He doesn't get sacked that much and Wash has a good O-Line that gives him time.

slacker00 · 10-23-07, 05:57 AM

Originally posted by imgv94

Yeah why not? He doesn't get sacked that much and Wash has a good O-Line that gives him time.

Clutch decision-making & execution. I haven't seen it yet from Campbell.

You know the Pats will throw all kinds of looks out there. I don't care how much talent you've got, you're going to have to beat the Pats every which way with all of the different looks they give. I just don't see it from a young QB.

Rollins08 · 10-23-07, 05:58 AM

17 is way to high for a team the quality of the Redskins. It should be reserved for teams like the Jets, Dolphins and Rams.

Doc JS · 10-23-07, 06:51 AM

IMGV,
Maybe the Skins played down to the level of their competition this past Sunday against the Niners...And 17 is a LOT of points...and the Pats could be looking past Washington to the Colts the following week...but it's just hard to bet against the Pats right now. Or at least it is for me.

Skidcom · 10-23-07, 08:02 AM

We are fast approaching unprecedented lines now. And yet they cover week after week.......my system keeps having me take the points.prudence suggests otherwise......been down this road before with hot teams and they do eventually cool off.hopefully before I am down to quarter units.

swifty · 10-23-07, 10:22 AM

New England 49 - 17 do you see a patten,

Date Opponent Time/Result
Sep 9 @N.Y. Jets Won 38-14
Sep 16 San Diego Won 38-14
Sep 23 Buffalo Won 38-7
Oct 1 @Cincinnati Won 34-13
Oct 7 Cleveland Won 34-17
Oct 14 @Dallas Won 48-27
Oct 21 @Miami Won 49-28
Oct 28 Washington 4:15pm This game 50 - 29 take the over
Nov 4 @Indianapolis 4:15pm
Week 10 BYE
Nov 18 @Buffalo 1:00pm
Nov 25 Philadelphia 8:15pm
Dec 3 @Baltimore 8:30pm
Dec 9 Pittsburgh 1:00pm
Dec 16 N.Y. Jets 1:00pm
Dec 23 Miami 1:00pm
Dec 29 @N.Y. Giants 8:15pm

KidDynamite · 10-23-07, 12:36 PM

Follow your logic and everyone go bet on the Skins. That way I can get the Pats at -16 or -15.5.

SBR Lou · 10-23-07, 01:59 PM

Originally posted by Doc JS

Maybe the Skins played down to the level of their competition this past Sunday against the Niners...And 17 is a LOT of points...and the Pats could be looking past Washington to the Colts the following week...but it's just hard to bet against the Pats right now. Or at least it is for me.

No, you're not the only one. I don't like this spread either, therefor I'm simply passing. New England has already covered 16.5 twice this year, I heard Belichick talking about this game and I believe he genuinely respects the Redskins defense. He will have something prepared like he always does. He's not a coach that ever takes a week off by all accounts.

If New England had been favored by 17 every week up until now, they would currently be 6-0-1 ATS, let's not forget that.

Mannheiser · 10-23-07, 02:25 PM

I agree that my first reaction was to take the skins with 17, they are not Miami, Jets, or the Bills. However, I began to analyze this match up like this...

Both teams have a top 10 Defense in both passing and running.

Redskins have a banged up O-line, and Portis/Betts are not running like they used to.

Jason cambell is young, and Belichek (SP) always finds ways to expose young QBs

Maroney isn't back to 100%, and Morris is out

Brady is almost flawless and has excellent WR

Lastly, the Pats went into Dallas and won by 21 against a team with better offensive weapons than the skins. Now they are home against a better D but a worse offense.

I think that 17 will be real close to the margin of victory...too close to bet on. I pass. GL

Redchevy · 10-23-07, 03:51 PM

I've been on NE since week 1 against the Jets and have covered all 7 so far, so for me, I'm riding the money train here again. I have a sneaking suspicion that Belichick may have one eye on the spread, as well as the win itself. He will NOT overlook this game or sit on a 20 point lead. He will leave nothing to chance and will go to Indy undefeated. NE will score at will again this week and Wash's O will simply not keep up. My .02 on this one

SBR Lou · 10-23-07, 04:16 PM

Well I think it's pretty much without question that they'll beat the Skins pretty handily. Question is, how many quarters will New England's defense play, and with what amount of intensity after maybe coasting to a 20 pt lead by halftime.

I think they will cover something like -9 pretty well, but if Jason Campbell makes a few big plays it wouldn't shock me for +17 to cover. Two weeks in a row passing on NE, I must be crazy. At least I'm not fading them though.

pegasis0066 · 10-23-07, 04:52 PM

I don't know how you can bet against NE at this time. Certainly 16 or 17 points favorite against Wash is ridiculous but what NE is doing is also ridiculous.

pavyracer · 10-23-07, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by Redchevy

I've been on NE since week 1 against the Jets and have covered all 7 so far, so for me, I'm riding the money train here again. I have a sneaking suspicion that Belichick may have one eye on the spread, as well as the win itself. He will NOT overlook this game or sit on a 20 point lead. He will leave nothing to chance and will go to Indy undefeated. NE will score at will again this week and Wash's O will simply not keep up. My .02 on this one

Do you suggest that Belichek is betting on NE games? Why would he have his eye on the spread? His job is to prepare his team to win. He would take a one point win all the time than caring about beating the spread.

Redchevy · 10-23-07, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Do you suggest that Belichek is betting on NE games? Why would he have his eye on the spread? His job is to prepare his team to win. He would take a one point win all the time than caring about beating the spread.

Not suggesting Belichick himself is betting on NE, but he did put Brady back in after Taylor returned one to cut the lead to 21 with 8+ to go in the 4th, bringing the lead back to 28. How many coaches would do that, still up 21 in Miami? Just an observation here, but who knows if any inner circle friends or family are burying this team week in and out in Vegas. He did lay out the 500K fine and maybe he's determined to get some back for him and Kraft.grrr:

SBR Lou · 10-23-07, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by Redchevy

He did lay out the 500K fine and maybe he's determined to get some back for him and Kraft.

I have a feeling that he will be reimbursed for that in some way anyway. He and Kraft are in the same bed together with this team.

HAPPY BOY · 10-23-07, 05:43 PM

might do a little skins ml play

Bigcrank23 · 10-23-07, 06:03 PM

Sean Taylor gonna knock Randy Moss the fu*k out! GO SKINS

But I still couldn't bet on my boys in NE

justdoingit · 10-23-07, 07:24 PM

Have you seen Tom Brady he stayed after killing the Fins in south beach to chill wit Giesle he has nothing to worry about and a coach that wants to win every game by 3 TD's GO PATS

Redchevy · 10-23-07, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by justdoingit

Have you seen Tom Brady he stayed after killing the Fins in south beach to chill wit Giesle he has nothing to worry about and a coach that wants to win every game by 3 TD's GO PATS

What's that telling you????

Redchevy · 10-23-07, 09:49 PM

Skins' will get roasted by 20+ and then some.!!!!

prop · 10-23-07, 10:13 PM

insanity: to do the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result.

Redchevy · 10-23-07, 10:32 PM

Originally posted by prop

insanity: to do the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result.

Insanity, equals money to me this year, until I get beat, I'm riding it. Up a lot of KKK's, how many here can say that???? This team is a money train, but very few get it or have the balls!! Just my .02 !!!

NEP Dynasty · 10-23-07, 10:53 PM

IMGV,
I really believe the Pats will cover this spread. They don't just want to beat teams badly. Check out Bill Simmons article on this, "The Eff You Touchdown" I think it was called.

If the Pats are up by 14 with a minute left on the Washington 10, they will try to score a touchdown. If you do decide on backing the Redskins, remember that. The 16.5 points that I am seeing is not enough.

At home, I would play the Patriots here up to 21 points. Remember, the Redskins got badly outgained by Kurt Warner and the Cardinals. While the Cardinals do have a good offense, it is a far cry from Brady and the Patriots. The Redskins defense is, IMO, above average, but I can't see it stopping the pats. I see the Patriots putting up a good deal of points here, and I don't think Jason Campbell and co. can match them here. The one thing that will be working in your favor here is a potential look ahead to the Colts.

Redchevy · 10-23-07, 11:02 PM

Originally posted by NEP Dynasty

IMGV,
I really believe the Pats will cover this spread. They don't just want to beat teams badly. Check out Bill Simmons article on this, "The Eff You Touchdown" I think it was called.

If the Pats are up by 14 with a minute left on the Washington 10, they will try to score a touchdown. If you do decide on backing the Redskins, remember that. The 16.5 points that I am seeing is not enough.

At home, I would play the Patriots here up to 21 points. Remember, the Redskins got badly outgained by Kurt Warner and the Cardinals. While the Cardinals do have a good offense, it is a far cry from Brady and the Patriots. The Redskins defense is, IMO, above average, but I can't see it stopping the pats. I see the Patriots putting up a good deal of points here, and I don't think Jason Campbell and co. can match them here. The one thing that will be working in your favor here is a potential look ahead to the Colts.

No look ahead here NEP, Brady will throw for another 4 or 5 TD's just in case he has only a 3 TD's in a week with bad weather. 16-17 is not enough for the Skin's.

louis · 10-24-07, 12:51 AM

Washington +17 is a great bet

You have to be kidding me. The number one team in the league is playing a team that is probably around number 10 in the league, and has to lay 17 points! How many points are the Patriots going to have to lay if they play one of the worst at home. It would probably set a record.

The line on the patriots has been blowing up as the Patriots cover week after week. The public plays this trend. The sharp bettors bet against it, and believe the law of averages and regression to the mean. At some point the Patriots stop covering. Is there anyone who thinks we have not reached that point, vs Washington?

Washington is a good football team. Give the Patriots 3 points for playing at home, but they are not 14 points better than Washington on a neutral field. That is ridiculous, and just public perception of the team. Washington could also blow out Miami, don't be overly impressed by this one game this past weekend.

If Washington +17 isn't available, also look to bet quarters, halfs, and money lines. Bodog seems like a good place to bet. Unfortunately they are not going to give me their +17 line, but if you can get it go for it.

Another thing, if there is any threat of bad weather, ie cold rain, Washington looks even better. Sometimes the bookmakers adjust the total, but forget to change the spread, or don't change the spread enough. This type of weather, both teams have to play conservative. Patriots are still better, but they can not run up the score as much.