Week 6 NFL - The Chart

Thomasha7 · 10-09-07, 09:47 AM

The Packers loss still hurts but it happens.

Tell me about it. It hurts even more that the only other team in the NFC (Dallas) had to come up with a crap win last night to stay undefeated. I really wanted them to lose for two reasons. I hate Dallas, and I didn't want any other team in the NFC to be 5-0 since my Packers lost. Oh well it is what it is, and like you said it happens.

Tunes · 10-09-07, 10:26 AM

Does the pick on the TB game change with the line at 3 so early in the week? Or is the first line the only line that's relevant to your chart?

nep1293 · 10-09-07, 11:02 AM

Originally posted by Tunes

Does the pick on the TB game change with the line at 3 so early in the week? Or is the first line the only line that's relevant to your chart?

Only the opener is relevant. Sometimes the line moves help (like the Rams last week) sometimes they hurt. But based on history if Tampa doesn't cover this game it will be because Tennessee wins outright. I'll be taking Tampa regardless of what the line goes to.

hhsilver · 10-09-07, 12:39 PM

I've been questioning you about your record keeping. I hope you are not fudging because you'll end up fooling yourself. But you seem pretty sharp, so I don't think you will make the numbers give you better results.

According to what you said in earlier posts, your official record would be based on the lines that you post, regardless of what line you had for your actual bet. In light of that, I hope you would count the Rams at +2.5 as a loss, even though you (and I) had +3.5. We understand about line changes and how an individual's results could vary. Over the long run, these changes that affect results may even out. I'd like to see you be consistent in how you report results. You don't want to always take the best case regarding line changes ( unless you are far better than I at knowing when to bet early and when to wait) .

Thanks for bringing us this interesting "system". I am not yet a full believer, but it's looking better all the time.

EDIT - (see next post -- before replying)

hhsilver · 10-09-07, 12:42 PM

oops - I just noticed that you apparently did just that with the Rams. You went 8-6 and you report th official record as 7-7. As Cartman says, "sweet". Good work and sorry I wrote before I noticed that.

nep1293 · 10-09-07, 09:27 PM

Originally posted by hhsilver

oops - I just noticed that you apparently did just that with the Rams. You went 8-6 and you report th official record as 7-7. As Cartman says, "sweet". Good work and sorry I wrote before I noticed that.

Messing with the numbers would serve me no purpose at all. If I were a TV guy trying to sell the picks I might do that, but I'm just want to share this information wth everyone. We're all here to make some money.

Thanks to line movement, my actual bets for NFL have gone 43-28-5 using The Chart, which is 60.56%. A very nice increase over the record I post. But for the purposes of the system I have to assume that the opener will be the number I get for future bets.

pegasis0066 · 10-10-07, 07:45 AM

Nep,

I have been following your posts the entire season and have a few questions:

- the specific teams in any given game are irrelevant, right?
- all that matters is the point spread and home/away team, that is home favorite, home dog, away favorite, or away dog?
- based on the past five years' trends (weighted) of a given point spread's results, you then have a formula to calculate a percent cover ATS?
- Last question, I haven't paid that close enough attention to all your picks this years, but if the above is correct, then wouldn't all away dogs of say -3 have the same percentage ATS? If so, couldn't you develop some sort of cross reference table to quickly indicate the calculated percent win ATS, that is, the formula would be static enough so that could develop such a table (modifying each week to take into account last week's results)?

Thanks

nep1293 · 10-10-07, 07:57 AM

Originally posted by pegasis0066

Nep,

I have been following your posts the entire season and have a few questions:

- the specific teams in any given game are irrelevant, right?
- all that matters is the point spread and home/away team, that is home favorite, home dog, away favorite, or away dog?
- based on the past five years' trends (weighted) of a given point spread's results, you then have a formula to calculate a percent cover ATS?
- Last question, I haven't paid that close enough attention to all your picks this years, but if the above is correct, then wouldn't all away dogs of say -3 have the same percentage ATS? If so, couldn't you develop some sort of cross reference table to quickly indicate the calculated percent win ATS, that is, the formula would be static enough so that could develop such a table (modifying each week to take into account last week's results)?

Thanks

The first 3 points are correct. I'm not really following you on the last point. I do update each week wth the previous weeks results and generate new percentages based on that. The percentages change week to week, but it takes a lot of games to move the numbers more than a few percentage points.

pegasis0066 · 10-10-07, 08:29 AM

Last question was essentially, for example, don't all -3 away favorites have the same percent win ATS?

nep1293 · 10-10-07, 08:50 AM

Originally posted by pegasis0066

Last question was essentially, for example, don't all -3 away favorites have the same percent win ATS?

Yeah, they would have the same win perctentage because they are all the same game in the eyes of The Chart.

seaborneq · 10-10-07, 04:53 PM

Nep, is it safe to say the home team favored by pick upwards towards minus 3.5 is the greatest percentage play overall during the history of your stats.

nep1293 · 10-10-07, 09:27 PM

Originally posted by seaborneq

Nep, is it safe to say the home team favored by pick upwards towards minus 3.5 is the greatest percentage play overall during the history of your stats.

It's actually the opposite. Road +2, Road +3 have been very good plays over the years. A combined 131-90.

Some of the best data are the big dogs. Home +7 and above is a combined 43-27. Road +10 and above is a combined 76-49. Those are the biggest groups of numbers that are consistant. Other plays like Road -6 are very solid.