Week 5 NFL - The Chart

EJandV · 10-02-07, 12:42 AM

Week 4 on sunday it was 9 - 4 the underdogs ruled su and ats .
How is it good news when 9 of the 13 lines were BOGUS ?

THE ODDSMAKERS WERE COMPLELTY USELESS , NOT EVEN CLOSE AND DEAD WRONG . THIS HAPPENS ALL THE TIME , WHATS GOOD ABOUT THAT ?

add: oooohhh I see , you saying it was as good as they come for you . congrats !!!

swifty · 10-02-07, 12:46 AM

Originally posted by nep1293

Week 4 was about as good as they come. No lucky Wins, no bad losses. The 2 losses were obvious losers. All winners looked good from the beginning.

I think 60% for the year is a good possibility. 2007 is looking like a repeat of 2006, which won 65%.

Week 4 Record
(12-2 , 85.71%)

Yearly Record
(33-23-6 , 58.93%)

WEEK 5 PICKS
Panthers (+3) @ Saints ..... 58.22%
Jaguars (-1.5) @ Chiefs ..... 63.67%
Lions @ Redskins (-4.5) ..... 55.35%
Falcons @ Titans (-8) ..... 61.67%
Dolphins (+5.5) @ Texans ..... 58.74%
Seahawks (+6.5) @ Steelers ..... 55.98%
Browns (+14) @ Patriots ..... 68.01%
Cardinals @ Rams (+2.5) ..... 55.43%
Jets @ Giants (-3.5) ..... 66.08%
Buccaneers (+11) @ Colts ..... 55.56%
Chargers @ Broncos (-1) ..... 71.68%
Ravens @ 49ers (+3) ..... 53.68%
Bears @ Packers (-3.5) ..... 66.08%
Cowboys @ Bills (+10) ..... 58.62%

great record wish I played yours but I did win a pool this week and plus this one too.

rlemm23 · 10-02-07, 12:50 AM

Keep up the good work

Nice Week

austintx05 · 10-02-07, 02:03 AM

good luck this week nep

nep1293 · 10-02-07, 08:11 AM

Thanks guys, I'd just hope the Bad Week, Good Week, Bad Week, Good Week, ends this week. Although the good weeks are better than the bad weeks are bad so it's all good so far.

EJandV · 10-02-07, 08:25 AM

I see that you had 8 dog picks out of 14 games in week 4 .

If it happened to be a big fav week ats (say 10 - 4) do you think your record would have been something like 5 - 9 ? Better or worse than that ?
If you dont know I understand but I would really love to hear your feedback <<<

nep1293 · 10-02-07, 08:39 AM

Originally posted by EJandV

I see that you had 8 dog picks out of 14 games in week 4 .

If it happened to be a big fav week ats (say 10 - 4) do you think your record would been something like 5 - 9 ? Better or worse than that ?
If you dont know I understand but I would really love to hear your feedback <<<

The system favors underdogs a bit more than favorites, but it all depends on where the favorites are winning from. My favorites went 4-1 last week, so as long as I have them the week should still be good. If there was a week when Home (-3) went 7-0 or something similar I would have a very bad week.

I try not to focus on the week to week numbers and stay on the long term goal of a winning year. Since I play every game for the same amount, a few bad weeks aren't going to kill me in the long run. The numbers have a tendency to fix themselves and still hit.

EJandV · 10-02-07, 08:43 AM

Another words , Is easy to breakdown # s if we look at it from a 100% result . Say all 14 favs were good ats , you picking 8 dogs your record would have been 6 -8 .

If it was 10 -4 favs the chances of your 6 favs being a part of the 10 would be ?
And the chances of your 8 dogs being a part of the lone 4 that were good would be ?
See what I mean ?
You having 8 dogs out of the possible 14 made it to where you really needed it to be a strong dog result day ........

If you had 8 favs and 6 dogs for week 4 , the 9 -5 dogs ruling week 4 would most likely result in a poor showing ..............

Okay , I just saw your reply , I feel ya , I dont entirely understand THE TRUE STRENGTH OF THE STRATEGY but I guess I will sooner or later .

nep1293 · 10-02-07, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by EJandV

Another words , Is easy to breakdown # s if we look at it from a 100% result . Say all 14 favs were good ats , you picking 8 dogs your record would have been 6 -8 .

If it was 10 -4 favs the chances of your 6 favs being a part of the 10 would be ?
And the chances of your 8 dogs being a part of the lone 4 that were good would be ?
See what I mean ?
You having 8 dogs out of the possible 14 made it to where you really needed it to be a strong dog result day ........

If you had 8 favs and 6 dogs for week 4 , the 9 -5 dogs ruling week 4 would most likely result in a poor showing ..............

Okay , I just saw your reply , I feel ya , I dont entirely understand THE TRUE STRENGTH OF THE STRATEGY but I guess I will sooner or later .

Last year the Dogs were hitting, and so far this year they are hitting, if it did start changing to the favorites The Chart would adjust itself after enough data comes in. If I was just playing every dog I would be in real trouble, but since I'm spot picking the Dogs it still leaves a good chance of staying afloat even when the favorites go on a run.

It really is too difficult to say what the actual record would be without knowing the point spreads of the winners. There could be a week where the spreads tell me to take 12 favorites and that is the week the favorites roll. There are just too many variables to give an accurate forecast. I'm sure the week will arrive at some point this year.

EJandV · 10-02-07, 09:08 AM

Cool , very nice .

austintx05 · 10-02-07, 12:59 PM

EJandV - system or no system, laying too much chalk will kill you, same as taking every dog will kill you too. I think nep has the right idea here....everything in balance.

cooljw · 10-02-07, 01:50 PM

As bad as the Saints have been, I'm not sure how you can take the Panthers +3 - think David Carr and away game.

austintx05 · 10-02-07, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by cooljw

As bad as the Saints have been, I'm not sure how you can take the Panthers +3 - think David Carr and away game.

the beauty of this is there is no bias, unlike the bias you already have.

nep1293 · 10-02-07, 09:39 PM

Originally posted by cooljw

As bad as the Saints have been, I'm not sure how you can take the Panthers +3 - think David Carr and away game.

Originally posted by austintx05

the beauty of this is there is no bias, unlike the bias you already have.

The chart doesn't see Panthers vs Saints, It doesn't see how David Carr sucks and how Drew Brees has sucked so far. All it sees is Road Team +3 Home Team -3.

The Saints could very well win this game, but +3 has been the much better bet over the years so I'm just going to run with it.

I accept losses in advance, the goal isn't to win 100% of the bets. I am trying for 58% on the year, and at least for me, this is the best way to hit that number.

And the 58% I'm hitting is a much stronger 58% than some others, due to the volume of games I play. I will bet around 600 games on the year. Hitting 58% on that number of games leads to a great profit on the year.

laxdjock · 10-02-07, 10:07 PM

What's your unit amount?

nep1293 · 10-02-07, 10:47 PM

Originally posted by laxdjock

What's your unit amount?

$20.....I'm a small timer with long term goals. I can not handle this many bets for anything much bigger and still maintain a level head. i will increase the unit size every year based on the success of the system. I would like to get up to $100 a game, but i am willing to be patient and work my way up to that.

On average I've been betting between $800 and $1200 a week.

austintx05 · 10-02-07, 10:49 PM

Originally posted by nep1293

$20.....I'm a small timer with long term goals. I can not handle this many bets for anything much bigger and still maintain a level head. i will increase the unit size every year based on the success of the system. I would like to get up to $100 a game, but i am willing to be patient and work my way up to that.

On average I've been betting between $800 and $1200 a week.

its great to see another bettor with a long term approach. The amount of $ you wager is irrelevant, but the info is invaluable. Keep it up nep.

nep1293 · 10-03-07, 07:33 AM

Originally posted by austintx05

its great to see another bettor with a long term approach. The amount of $ you wager is irrelevant, but the info is invaluable. Keep it up nep.

That is exactly how I feel. I could go around saying I'm betting $500 a game, but would that really serve a purpose? All that matters is the Winning %.