My Philadelphia Eagles Betting Thread

[EaglesPhan36]

So the Eagles are my team. Have been, will always be. I've usually tried to stay away from betting alot of their games because I hate watching and thinking about the lines, etc. But this season, I'm gonna be different. Gonna wager on every game, including preseason. I'll try to provide the best analysis I can. We'll see how I do on staying impartial with the picks. Any comments are welcome!

PRESEASON - WEEK 1 @ BALTIMORE
This marks the 4th straight preseason that these two teams have met. Last year, BAL covered as a 3 pt favorite. In '05, PHI cashed as a 3 pt dog. In '04, PHI cashed as a 2 pt favorite in BAL. Throughout this series, both regular and preseason the under has been a major cash cow going for 9 of the last 10. However, none of those totals were as low as Monday's current total of 31.

Game Notes
Andy Reid has said McNabb will not play at all in this game. AJ Feeley will start at QB with the 1st teamers and play the 1st. Holcomb will guide the team in the 2nd and rookie Kevin Kolb will play the entire 2nd half. On defense, the 1st team will play the 1Q, 2nd team the 2Q and then probably a mix of 2nd team and others in the 2nd half.

The Ravens are expected to start Steve McNair at QB, but he likely will only play a series before yielding way to Kyle Boller. It will then be rookie Troy Smith and former UCLA QB Ben Olson taking snaps the rest of the way. I haven't seen much else on any sort of significant injuries for the Ravens.

Notable players out: QB Donovan McNabb, TE LJ Smith, G Shawn Andrews, CB Lito Sheppard, S Brian Dawins, DL Montae Regor, DL Ian Scott. OL Jonathan Ogden and LB Dan Cody are out for BAL.

2006 Preseason
Eagles were 3-2 ATS and cashed the UNDER in 4 of 5 games. That was a drastic difference over previous preseasons where the Eagles routinely cashed the over. Ravens were 2-2 ATS and cashed the UNDER in 3 of 4. They have been a strong under play in most preseasons, but again the totals have never been this low, usually sticking in the 34-36 range.

PICK: OVER 31 (-110)
I just can't go with picking a side much in the preseason as I feel personally that it is a total crapshoot. Instead, I'll probably focus on totals and try to find the value - if there is any.

Here, I'm going with a little bit of history for this pick. The Eagles have made their preseason debut on Monday Nights in both 2005 and 2003. Both those games featured alot of pts. 69 total with PIT in '05 and 44 with NO in '03. I think this game either gets into the mid to upper 30s or winds up something like 10-6. I'm banking on a little more offense than the oddsmakers are expecting.

[bigboydan]

I know it's preseason and all, but 31 looks a little too low if you ask me Mr.Eagles.

[OrionSky]

Eagles is my team too!!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Word! The Kolb Era begins tonight!

[babaoriley]

Yep teasing the Philly Over with the Denver Under.

[Crayzee]

philly +4 for me

[EaglesPhan36]

Ouch. Philly +40 was more like it. At least the over cashed. Otherwise the night was crap. Ryan Moats is done with a broken ankle. Best news there is that means Tony Hunt is for sure making this team. Good thing I put little to no stock in preseason game #1.

[Dark Horse]

Andy Reid is already pissed off. PHI -3 at home versus CAR (off a win) looks pretty good to me.

[LT Profits]

I lean Philly this week as well, but will most likely pass vs. the BEST pre-season team in the NFL right now (Carolina 16-2 Last 18 SU).

[McBa1n]

I was favoring Carolina just due to defensive depth/playmaking ability and they have a huge edge at QB depth, which is big in preseason. I havn't gone over any of the information as to what the coaches plan to do yet - that was just at first glance what I felt. I don't like betting in favor of teams like Philly in the preseason, in general. There's a big dropoff when McNabb isn't around.

[EaglesPhan36]

I haven't really looked too much at Friday's game yet, but Philly favored after a short week regardless of preseason or not doesn't seem like a real strong wager. Again I think the total is the only way I can personally play preseason games.

**Big News**
McNabb will play.

http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/news/Story.asp?story_id=13667

Donovan McNabb is set to make his preseason debut Friday night at Lincoln Financial Field against Carolina, head coach Andy Reid confirmed to PhiladelphiaEagles.com on Wednesday morning.

While the speculation has been steady that this would be the game in which McNabb takes the field for the first time since suffering a season-ending knee injury against Tennessee last November, nothing was officially official until Reid told WYSP's Merrill Reese during Tuesday night's Coach's Show that McNabb would "be out there."

Then McNabb told WIP Sports Radio on Wednesday morning that he was ready to play.

"I reckon I do," said McNabb when asked if he feels he can play against Carolina. "Yes, I do."

McNabb suffered a torn anterior ligament in his right knee in the November 19 loss to Tennessee at Lincoln Financial Field. A diligent work ethic enabled McNabb to return to the practice field in the spring, far ahead of schedule.

He was part of just about every practice at Lehigh University, and then sat out Monday night's preseason opener against Baltimore while the offense struggled in a 29-3 defeat.

The team practices once on Wednesday and then has a walk-through on Thursday before squaring off against the Panthers Friday evening.

"Donovan has worked extremely hard to get to this point," said Reid. "He is making good progress and will continue to do so."

[RageWizard]

I actually went to 5 of the Eagles training camp practices and have noticed that the defense is lacking especially in the run game.(Gee thanks Lou Dobbs we couldn't tell from the Baltimore game.) But really the over might be the way to go here with Carolina ripping up the Preseason lately and Andy "Fat a$$" Reid not feeling to good after the loss on Monday and his deliquent kids pleading guilty the other day. He'll have the offense score more than three points or he might give that dude Chestnut a run for the hot dog belt. I'm not going to invest in this game because I'm probably to close to see through the Bull, but that is my take.

[EaglesPhan36]

Run D has been an issue for Philly for several years now Rage. Biggest problem defensively last year to me was that they could not get consistent pressure on the QB without blitzing. Jim Johnson's scheme I think is far less effective if you don't get a push from your front 4. Over is my lean right now too with how Carolina played in game 1 and as you said, Philly will likely show more on offense. I'll make my selection Friday morning most likely.

[EaglesPhan36]

Preseason Week #2


PRESEASON - WEEK 2 vs. CAROLINA
The Eagles host the Panthers tonight for their 2nd preseason game. These two teams have never met in the preseason. For Philly, Lincoln Financial Field aka The Linc has been kind to them in preseason play. Last preseason, the Eagles covered the spread in 2 games there as 3 and 3.5 pt favorites. Both totals hit under the marks set at 35 and 33.5. In '05, the Eagles were 1-1 ATS at The Linc in preseason play with both games hitting well over the totals.

Game Notes
The big news for tonight of course is that #5 is back. Donovan McNabb is set to make his preseason debut after being out since last November with a torn ACL. Andy Reid has said McNabb will play at least the 1st quarter and depending on how he is feeling, could play the entire half with the 1st team offense. Also back this week is CB Lito Sheppard.

Notable players out: TE LJ Smith, G Shawn Andrews, S Brian Dawkins, DE Mike Rucker is out for Carolina.

PICK: OVER 35 (-110)
Again, I can't really suggest taking a side in preseason with the variables being too great. So I go with the total again. This is no cake walk either. 35 is that pesky middle ground in the preseason. So far totals set at 35 or above have gone 3 under, 1 over and 1 push. All of that, but I sense that the over might be the best shot tonight. The Eagles should be out to show that McNabb is close to 100%, so the 1st team offense will come out firing. Whether or not, they execute well enough to put up points is another question. I think however with the Eagles defense still a bit questionable and Carolina having shown the ability to score in their first game that the over is how I will be playing tonight's tilt.

[Dark Horse]

What is wrong with Fox? PHI up 17-0, nine minutes left in 1H, and Delhomme is still in there, getting sacked twice in this last series.

[OrionSky]

Eagles!!!

[Dark Horse]

Second half wager on CAR -3 looks sweet, with their back-up QB not even in the game yet.

[EaglesPhan36]

#5 looked good. Good news for Philly. Even better, 2-0 for me in the preseason.

[EaglesPhan36]

JEREMIAH TROTTER CUT

http://philadelphiaeagles.com/news/NewsStory13718.html

Little bit of a shocker to some, but he was really only a run stuffer and his mobility had been in question, so I think the move to a younger guy in Omar Gaither was coming at some point. Trotter will get picked up by a good team I bet.

[OrionSky]

Wow, what a sad story, i really liked him...

Trotter - you will be missed - best of luck...

[EaglesPhan36]

PRESEASON - WEEK 3 @ PITTSBURGH

Game Notes
Several interesting stories to monitor for Philly tonight. Head coach Andy Reid's son was arrested for the second time this year earlier this week and while Reid has always been business-as-usual in his approach on the field, that sort of thing could affect preparation for a game. Secondly, the national spotlight of Sunday Night TV hits squarely on Donovan McNabb tonight. It's one thing to make your debut last week after being gone due to injury, but you know tonight will be all about #5 in the media's eyes. And lastly, just days after cutting MLB Jeremiah Trotter, LB Omar Gaither will be one to watch as he takes over in the middle. He's quicker than Trotter, but a bit lighter. It will be interesting to see if the Steelers try to pound the ball alot at Philly and see if the LBs can make the stops. Oh yeah, least I forget - the heart and soul of the defense - FS Brian Dawkins - makes his preseason debut tonight after missing time with a foot injury. Should be good to see him back!

The Steelers head into this match-up looking to fine tune their offense which has been sluggish in the preseason. They have just one TD in the last 10 quarters of preseason play. RB Willie Parker should make a difference tonight as he gets his first extensive action after missing time due to injury.

Both teams will likely play their starters for the entire first half and then drop off to the 2nd units, etc. after that.

Injury Report:

PHILADELPHIA
Jevon Kearse DE Ques Sun - Knee - 08/18/07
Nursing his surgically repaired knee and missed Friday's preseason game. His knee is swollen and the Eagles will ease him back to make sure he's ready for the regular season.

Brian Dawkins S Ques Sun - Achilles - 08/17/07
Has been practicing in a limited role for the last week as he continues to nurse a strained Achilles tendon.

L.J. Smith TE Ques Sun - Groin - 08/17/07
Suffered a groin injury in practice on August 9th. He will most likely not play in the team's upcoming preseason game on Sunday.

Shawn Andrews G Early Sept - Ankle - 08/10/07 notesDiagnosed with a sprain in his surgically repaired ankle. Was seen on crutches wearing a walking boot. Once thought he could miss the season, it's now believed he'll be ready for Week 1.

PITTSBURGH
Chukky Okobi C Ques Sun - Back - 08/19/07
Suffered an undisclosed back injury during practice on August 8th and did not play in their preseason games on August 11th and 18th.

Jerame Tuman TE Out Sun - Hamstring - 08/25/07
Did not practice this week and will not play against the Eagles on Sunday.

Derrick (Pit) Jones DL Out Sun - Calf - 08/25/07


PICK: UNDER 35.5 (-110)
In case you're just joining me, I don't do sides for these preseason games. Again, there's no real attraction to me to do that when the games still don't count. Going with the total again and the under this time out. PIT has been one of the best under bets in preseason play over the past two seasons. In fact, it's 7 straight unders and 9 of their last 11 preseason overall have hit the under. The Eagles have gone over in their first two preseason games after being an under bet last preseason, hitting that 4 of 5 times. Despite that, I think PIT will be stingy on D at Heinz Field and I believe the Eagles will also be out to prove a little more defensively this week with Dawkins back and Gaither now in the middle.

[tullamore]

I going with the under too, but I got it at -35.

[All_In]

I'm going with PHILA and UNDER as well. Good to all!

[ShamsWoof10]

Pitt. is a LOCK tonight...



Hey JJ... I said LOCK faaaaaaaaaaaatha!!!

[OrionSky]

Already a turnover babe...

[austintx05]

thoughts about the eagles v gb in week 1?

[ShamsWoof10]

Pitt. is a LOCK tonight...

Damn it must have been that last hit.. I edited that post instead of quoted it..

Hey JJ... I said LOCK faaaaaaaaaaaatha!!!

[SportNut]

Damn it must have been that last hit.. I edited that post instead of quoted it..

Hey JJ... I said LOCK faaaaaaaaaaaatha!!!

:smokesma

What the hell is Fatha? and smokesma=smoke marijuana? And I also lost on the under:

[EaglesPhan36]

Tough break on the under. That fumble was a killer although it looked like Philly probably was going to get some points if they hadn't coughed it up.

[EaglesPhan36]

PRESEASON - WEEK 4 vs. NY JETS

Not going to waste a whole lot of time breaking down this one since it's the last "fake" game of the preseason.

INJURY REPORT
PHI: McNabb, LJ Smith and Shawn Andrews will not play on offense tonight. Most of the Eagles first teamers are likely to see no or very limited action.

NYJ: Thomas Jones is nursing a calf injury and I expect they too will play their starters sparingly or not at all.

PICK: OVER 36.5
This is probably as hard a game as there is to predict for every NFL team, Week 4 of the preseason. However, I will go with the Eagles trend where they have hit the over in all 3 preseason games so far. The Jets have gone over in 2 of 3 and I expect the Philly offense to continue to move the ball with AJ Feely and Kevin Kolb doing the work. Turnovers will likely end up being the difference in this one, but I'm thinking they will work in the overs favor.

Preseason Record: 2-1 ATS

[OrionSky]

I'm with you Eagles, I'm thinking of +2.5 since none of the Eagles starters will be playing. Good Luck!!

Although, I'd like to see them kick some Jet ass!

[Willie Bee]

Good luck with your Eagles this week, EP. Once the season starts in earnest, I will be pulling for them at least twice

[EaglesPhan36]

One more note I forgot. The Eagles & Jets have met in the preseason finale for several years in a row now, 6 to be exact. The over cashed 4 times and 3 straight, all eclipsing tonight's total.

[EaglesPhan36]

REGULAR SEASON WEEK #1 @ GREEN BAY
Kickoff at 1pm ET on FOX


NOTABLE INJURIES
PHI: DE Jevon Kearse and TE LJ Smith are questionable. Kearse should play. Backup QB AJ Feeley and G Shawn Andrews are probable.

GB: WR Donald Driver, RB Brandon Jackson are proable. WR Greg Jennings and RB Vernand Morency are doubtful. DB Aaron Rouse is questionable.[/COLOR]

SERIES TRENDS
Philly is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings with the Pack and have won six straight in the series. The under has hit in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

TEAM TRENDS
The Eagles have trended to the under alot in their games where they are a favorite. The under has cashed 25 of the last 38 times that Philly has been a fave.

GB meanwhile has struggled to get out of the gate in September. They are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 September games and at Lambeau, they are a measly 6-18-2 in their last 26 home games.

THE GAME
1. Eagles on Offense: Despite the need for more balance, which is the battle cry in Philly each year - I expect that Andy Reid will come out and take some shots early with McNabb and the passing offense. Both #5 and the head coach will want to prove that McNabb is close to being 100% and that he is back on top of his game. The Eagles should however balance in plenty of Brian Westbrook touches plus carries for Correll Buckhalter and Tony Hunt for short yardage. The big test for the Eagles WRs will be playing against press coverage from Al Harris and Charles Woodson. Look for speedy Kevin Curtis to get loose deep if the Eagles have success with their screen passing game and can sprinkle the ball around to Reggie Brown and the TEs in the mid range game. Even if LJ Smith cannot go due to injury, Matt Schoebel is more than capable of picking up the slack. The OL should receive a boost with pro bowler Shawn Andrews returning to start after missing the preseason with an ankle sprain.

2. Green Bay on Offense: I think the thing that will matter the most to GB is seeing what rookie RB Brandon Jackson is made of in this game. Philly has struggled on run defense and you have to expect the Pack to try and exploit that early. Jackson should be recovered from a concussion and may give the Eagles front seven problems. In the passing game, GB must find ways to get Donald Driver loose. He's their best weapon and CBs Sheldon Brown and Lito Sheppard - although skilled - are sometimes susceptible to giving up big plays.

3. Philly on Defense: Job #1 has to be to stop the run. If the Eagles can make GB one dimensional by plugging the run, then I believe that they can force Favre into making some mistakes which should turn the game in their favor. Job #2 is getting a steady push from the front 4. This was a bug-a-boo for Philly last season. If they have to rely heavily on the blitz for pressure, then GB will have success putting points on the board.

4. GB on Defense: I expect GB to come after McNabb furiously. They'll test his mobility. That means the Philly OL needs to do a good job in protection against an underrated DL that features Aaron Kampman and Cullen Jenkins on the edges. The big key besides pressure will be who covers Westbrook when he comes out of the backfield. There are very few LBs who can match him when he gets involved in the passing game. GB will have to have eyes on #36 at all times because he'll line up all over the field.

FINAL WORDS & THE PICK
This is a huge game for both teams despite it being just Week #1. Philly has aspirations of being one of the top teams in the NFC and the Pack believe in a weaker NFC that they can make the playoffs. I think for this one, special teams may play a big part as well as turnovers of course. The Eagles have had a large turn over in personnel on special teams and will feature a new KR & PR this year as well as a new punter. Their new punter Sav Rocca could be a real weapon if he kicks like he did in the preseason.

Pick & Play: Eagles -3
I expect a back and forth competitive ball game for the most part. If the Eagles OL is healthy and they do commit to the run, they should be able to mix in some big pass plays and pull out a victory in the neighborhood of 7-10 pts.

Lean:
Over 42.5. Either team could drop 20+ pts easily in this game if they're clicking. I don't see either defense being able to dominate the opposition, so I expect a score to total somewhere between 44&47 pts. I think this is a pretty solid play, but I'm not sure if I'll go with two plays on the same game or not.

[Doc JS]

EP,

Got the Eagles in my two team parlay:
Philly -3
New England -6

Gl to both of us!

Doc