My first time ever betting on NFL

[Gaze73]

Chiefs -3
Ravens -7

Let's beat those useless dogs.

[DJK]

Chiefs -3
Ravens -7

Let's beat those useless dogs.

I see that you changed your mind betting the dogs.

Now that you've flipped, you do know the dogs are going to start covering, right?

[Gaze73]

I see that you changed your mind betting the dogs.

Now that you've flipped, you do know the dogs are going to start covering, right?

My system isn't dogs only. It shows me value dogs and useless dogs, but even the value dogs can be useless.

[Gaze73]

See, the Texans were a useless dog. Sometimes you gotta go with the public.

[Gaze73]

Chiefs -3 W
Ravens -7 W

Easy game with favs.

ATS 11-18-1
ML 2-10 -8.16u

[DJK]

Chiefs -3 W
Ravens -7 W

Easy game with favs.

ATS 11-18-1
ML 2-10 -8.16u

To think that if you parlayed all favorites, Penn State, Texas, Ohio State, Chiefs, and Ravens, then it's 25X.

If you added Notre Dame from last night, it's 50X.

I took all of them (only on ML) but not altogether in different parlays and all of my parlays are pending with more of tomorrow's games.

How come not one soul posted to give that a try?

JV posts all losses taking + ML's. So sad.

CFP is turning out to be just like the FCS playoffs where all HOME favorites covered rather easily.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Nobody tried it because the theoretical chances of 6/6 favs covering is 1 in 64 and it only pays 50/1; terrible value, despite the result.

[Gaze73]

New York Giants +9.5
New York Giants +375

Carolina Panthers +5.5
Carolina Panthers +200

Chicago Bears +7
Chicago Bears +275

Cleveland Browns+10
Cleveland Browns +400

Colts -4

New York Jets +3
New York Jets +140

Washington Commanders +4.5
Washington Commanders +186

Seattle Seahawks +2.5
Seattle Seahawks +121

Buffalo Bills -14

Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +121

Miami Dolphins+2
Miami Dolphins +114

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5

Looks like the dogs will be barking tonight.

[Gaze73]

What are those buffalo clowns doing? My first -14 pick lost and this one will too. But if I had taken the dog they'd win Q1 21:0.

[Gaze73]

New York Giants +9.5 L
New York Giants +375 L
Carolina Panthers +5.5 W
Carolina Panthers +200 W

Chicago Bears +7 L
Chicago Bears +275 L

Cleveland Browns+10 L
Cleveland Browns +400 L

Colts -4 W

New York Jets +3 L
New York Jets +140 L

Washington Commanders +4.5 W
Washington Commanders +186 W

Seattle Seahawks +2.5 L Throw
Seattle Seahawks +121 L

Buffalo Bills -14 L

Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 L
Jacksonville Jaguars +121 L

Miami Dolphins+2 W
Miami Dolphins +114 W

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 L

Looks like the dogs will be barking tonight.

ATS 4-8
ML 3-4 +1.0

ATS 15-26-1
ML 5-14 -7.16u

Those big dogs are really useless aren't they.

[Headsterx]

Dogs for tonight?

[Gaze73]

Dogs for tonight?

You want to fade my 36% ATS dogs?

Saints +14 it is then.

[ddittie]

"Those big dogs are really useless aren't they."

Yes, yes they are...

[Gaze73]

"Those big dogs are really useless aren't they."

Yes, yes they are...

Tell me about it. I have backed two -14 favs in this thread and both failed spectacularly because of course the public can't win with obvious 14 point favs. I vowed to never back another -14 fav and took the very next +14 dog. 34-0.

ATS 15-27-1
ML 5-14 -7.16u

[Gaze73]

Chiefs -1.5

The first team is better than the 8th team. Thanks for coming to my ted talk.

[Gaze73]

Houston Texans +6.5

The 11th team isn't 6.5 worse than the 7th team. Easy game innit.

[Gaze73]

Looks like another useless dog at HT, 2-0 for the public again?

[ddittie]

Texans didn’t have anything to play for today. 3rd or 4th seed isn’t much anyway. I thought they’d play better, but knew they aren’t beating the Ravens, just didn’t expect this…

[Gaze73]

Yeah it was a disaster.

ATS 16-28-1

When there's more good favs like the Chiefs and dogs that don't completely suck I should climb out of the hole. Why did I start NFL in the most public season ever? Lol.

[Gaze73]

Bears +4
Bears +180

Patriots +4.5
Patriots +193

Bengals -3

[Gaze73]

Cards +7
Cards +254

Recap tomorrow after all the useless dogs are done losing.

[Gaze73]

Bears +4 W
Bears +180 L

Patriots +4.5 L
Patriots +193 L

Bengals -3 W

Cards +7 W
Cards +254 L

ATS 19-29-1
ML 5-17 -10.16u

Do dog MLs ever win? Geez.

[DJK]

Bears +4 W
Bears +180 L

Patriots +4.5 L
Patriots +193 L

Bengals -3 W

Cards +7 W
Cards +254 L

ATS 19-29-1
ML 5-17 -10.16u

Do dog MLs ever win? Geez.

The Cardinals almost did.

That throw bouncing off the helmet of McBride and subsequently getting picked off by an incredible catch made me a decent amount as I bet the Rams ML rather big. It was tough watching the game in the 2nd half and I kept on wondering why the Rams wouldn't double cover McBride as he was having his way all day.

All I can say is that I got lucky as hell for this win and there's no doubt that it takes a lot of luck to win in any gambling; especially in sports betting. Another case in point, look at how the Denver backers got royally screwed with the Bengals deciding to go for a TD instead of just kicking a chip shot in OT. I cannot even imagine the emotional roller coaster ride that all bettors on both sides had to go through with that game.

I bet only 1/4 of my originally intended bet amount and that was a mistake.

[Headsterx]

Hey Gaze, good luck today. I’m no expert on NFL but would stay away big underdogs ml today. Maybe take the pts but not ml unless small spread. A lot favs expect to win for playoffs positioning.

[Gaze73]

Well, the dogs gotta win too sometimes, can't keep losing by 3.

Jets +10
Jets +427

Jaguars ML -101

Saints +2
Saints +112

Giants+7
Giants+310

Dallas Cowboys +7.5
Dallas Cowboys +308

Carolina Panthers+10
Carolina Panthers +425

Cleveland Browns+3.5
Cleveland Browns+154

Washington Commanders -3.5

Best bets Saints and Washington.

[Headsterx]

Good luck, really like Panthers +10. It should be close but can’t imagine Panthers beating Bucs at home looking to win their division.

[Gaze73]

First big win with giants but the rest is useless as usual. How can bookies let the public win so much with favs covering every spread? Blowout after blowout.

[Gaze73]

Jets +10 L
Jets +427 L

Jaguars ML -101 W (counted as ATS win)

Saints +2 L
Saints +112 L

Giants+7 W
Giants+310 W

Dallas Cowboys +7.5 L
Dallas Cowboys +308 L

Carolina Panthers+10 L
Carolina Panthers +425 L

Cleveland Browns+3.5 L
Cleveland Browns+154 L
Washington Commanders -3.5 W

3-5 ATS
1-5 ML -1.9

ATS 22-34-1
ML 6-22 -12.06u

The dogs continue being absolute dogshit, even with the giants win it's not enough. The Browns have scored single digits in 3 games in a row, how useless can they be? 3-20 at home, really? I'd be like 30% ATS without favs.

[Gaze73]

49ers +3.5
49ers +170

[DJK]

49ers +3.5
49ers +170

You complain about useless dogs and yet here you are keep on plugging away with the dogs.

My guess is that you aren't even betting real money on your picks.

[ddittie]

49ers +3.5
49ers +170

This game is a fade all day. Neither team benefits from a win.

[Gaze73]

You complain about useless dogs and yet here you are keep on plugging away with the dogs.

My guess is that you aren't even betting real money on your picks.

Of course I'm not betting on these dogs, why would I bet on an untested model created in a couple of hours lol. But FWIW my system works VERY well in NBA and NHL, it's just the NFL that either has useless dogs or Vegas is putting up silly dog lines like +3 when they need +10(and still fail to cover). And my system evolves each week with new data, it will be much better in the next season. I'm 90% sure I'll go 60%+ ATS next season.

[Gaze73]

This game is a fade all day. Neither team benefits from a win.

If nobody needs a win then I guess the under is the play.

[ddittie]

Of course I'm not betting on these dogs, why would I bet on an untested model created in a couple of hours lol. But FWIW my system works VERY well in NBA and NHL, it's just the NFL that either has useless dogs or Vegas is putting up silly dog lines like +3 when they need +10(and still fail to cover). And my system evolves each week with new data, it will be much better in the next season. I'm 90% sure I'll go 60%+ ATS next season.

You should go 60% next season just due to variance. Picking 30-40% this year you might swing 60-70 next year lol

[Gaze73]

Would you look at that, the good team covered again, who woulda thunk it. Also, 74 pts in a game where "Neither team benefits from a win." It looks like Detroit likes winning.

ATS 22-35-1
ML 6-23 -13.06u