The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 4

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  • WillyBoy
    SBR MVP
    • 06-19-18
    • 1988

    #1
    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 4
    Such a relief to be done with year old data. Not that I expect the model to suddenly take off, but it’s a lot of work to squeeze in that third game of numbers from last season, it feels like a burden lifted.

    If you’ve been paying close attention: in addition to performing sweeps of various Vegas sportsbooks - to record consensus closing lines for each week - it also does a three-week re-sweep looking for past errors or changes. It then recomputes the ATS Win/Loss record; in this case finding 3 changes, resulting in a Week 1 pick flip in the model’s favor!! Usually, such changes result in the opposite result, so it’s nice to win one.

    FWIW - Below, find the standings for the first 3 weeks; and in a day or two I’ll be posting the Limper Team Power Rankings, as well team rankings for offensive and defensive units, special teams and QB rankings.

    GLTA



  • WillyBoy
    SBR MVP
    • 06-19-18
    • 1988

    #2
    Comment
    • WillyBoy
      SBR MVP
      • 06-19-18
      • 1988

      #3
      Comment
      • WillyBoy
        SBR MVP
        • 06-19-18
        • 1988

        #4
        The Offensive/Defensive ranks need no explanation. However, the model produces two Power Rankings: the one on the left is pretty conventional, using the averages of the win/loss record, strength of opposition, and statistical ranking, combined in a C-Average – used to rank the teams. The Power Ranking on the right imposes a value weight on each factor, depending on degree of difficulty determined by the opposition, and again combined in a C-Average.



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        • WillyBoy
          SBR MVP
          • 06-19-18
          • 1988

          #5
          Comment
          • WillyBoy
            SBR MVP
            • 06-19-18
            • 1988

            #6
            Comment
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