NFL thoughts for week 18

[ChuckyTheGoat]

*I'd argue that the Kan City line (-9) is short.

...Stidham looked great in 1st start. Chiefs now have tape on him.

1st game of week 18. Seeking out the 1-seed, feel like the Chiefs will be looking to win by DD.

Check the Raider LB injuries. They were thinned out during game vs Niners.

[OldBill]

yeah chucky line not short and raiders want revenge from earlier MNF loss as a big dog @ Chiefs but i cannot take stidman

kc won div long ago no div rival has beat them i think chiefs go bench 2nd half or 2nd quarter and still get #1 seed afc 5-1 div nobody in afc has that

bills might wind up 3-3 in div

[agendaman]

over the years the raiders just cannot beat the chiefs.BUT they play them tough a lot.one of my 3 best bets this week is kc-raiders over the 51 total.gut feeling-bold prediction for week 18 chucky.if the snowplow derrick henry titans plus 6.5 is a great play.also sprinkle the ml.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

yeah chucky line not short and raiders want revenge from earlier MNF loss as a big dog @ Chiefs but i cannot take stidman

kc won div long ago no div rival has beat them i think chiefs go bench 2nd half or 2nd quarter and still get #1 seed afc 5-1 div nobody in afc has that

bills might wind up 3-3 in div

That's why they play the games, Bill. Just my thoughts. Raiders vulnerable here.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

over the years the raiders just cannot beat the chiefs.BUT they play them tough a lot.one of my 3 best bets this week is kc-raiders over the 51 total.gut feeling-bold prediction for week 18 chucky.if the snowplow derrick henry titans plus 6.5 is a great play.also sprinkle the ml.

Agenda, the Over 51 sounds good. Read up on the Raider LBs. I really don't think they could stop San Fran at the end of that game. Chiefs will be focused, I think they score easily this week.

Agenda, always appreciate your thoughts. I mentioned how some of the Wk18 games are Dead Rubbers and virtually impossible to cap. I played exactly two games so far:

*Tenn +7 (-112). Yes, what you say above. 7 is not the correct number. My logic ties to the Dal/Ten game. That was NOT a real game.

It ties back to the Tie-breaker implications. Vrabel pulled an Appomattox, he conceded the game. Look at the list of Opt-outs. Vrabel treated wk17 as a bye week. The wk17 result should be thrown out.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Agenda, my 2nd play:

*Indy COLTS -2.5 (-110). Another game of reverse logic. The Texans hold the Tie on their record. They're currently a half-game WORSE in the standings (than the Bears).

Short line, so SU ties closely to ATS. Do the Texans want to keep the #1 pick? You'd think so. Who is that pick? The two Alab stars (Young, Anderson) have been mentioned as most likely.

Does HOU management tell Lovie that he's not allowed to win the game? HOU is a QB-challenged team. Is Young the Franchise QB they want to take?

I'm playing the Colts. I have no problem backing them here.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

*I'd argue that the Kan City line (-9) is short.

...Stidham looked great in 1st start. Chiefs now have tape on him.

1st game of week 18. Seeking out the 1-seed, feel like the Chiefs will be looking to win by DD.

Check the Raider LB injuries. They were thinned out during game vs Niners.

Here's my 3rd play. Kan City -8 (-105).

Price is shortening up. If the BUFF/CINN game is in fact abandoned, it has implications on the top-seed.

Kan City was waiting for a Buffalo loss. If Buffalo can't play the game vs CIN, then they can't get to 14-3.

Full-speed ahead for the Chiefs. Win and seize the 1-seed. I see Kelce going crazy vs the depleted Linebacking corps.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Think my logic on Buf/CIN may have been wrong. That said:

*Does anyone think the Bills are going to be real focused this week (vs New Eng)?

I don't. If I'm on the Chiefs, I want to lay down a marker at 14-3.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Is there any chance the Bears are chasing down the #1 pick?

Pretty big line move. -1.5 to -6.

If you believe the Mock drafts, Alabama's two stars figure high on the list. DE Anderson and QB Young.

Makes too much sense that:
*Hou: needs a QB.
*Chi: needs a Def Lineman.

Unless there are trade offers, it seems so logical. If HOU wants to hold that 1-seed, they have to lose to be sure. Tactically, I don't know why they would try to win. Even if they want to trade the pick, you'd want the #1 pick as a bargaining chip.

[OldBill]

bears need a lot of help my gawd how many games was fields the leading rusher teaxns should be elminated from nfl along with other losers that are painfull to watch

but they cannot because they been in nfl way before s b years

[ChuckyTheGoat]

bears need a lot of help my gawd how many games was fields the leading rusher teaxns should be elminated from nfl along with other losers that are painfull to watch

but they cannot because they been in nfl way before s b years

I really think this draft looks set up for:
1) HOU - QB Young
2) CHI - DE Anderson

Personally, I'm not sold on either one as an NFL standout. Alab players tend to be overrated by virtue of playing with OTHER great players. And the 2022 Alabama team wasn't so hot.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Two more plays. Purely based on the situation and my read on the games:

4th play = Atlanta -4 (-108).
5th play = PHI Eagles -13.5 (-109).

The teams can say whatever they want:
*Bucs are locked into their playoff slot. They need all the rest they can get.
*After all the work the Eagles have done, are they really gonna blow it? And this is first Giant playoff appearance in some time.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

6th and 7th plays:

*WASH +7 (-105). The QB dropoff to Howell is not so much.

*NY Jets +3.5 (-109). Feel like the QB dropoff is bigger on the Miami side than the Jet side.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Play #8 = CHICAGO Bears +7 (-110).

...Wrote about this on the main page. Thinks the Viking laydown is heavier than people think.

Think it will play out like an exhibition game. Vikings don't want to move off the 3/6 matchup vs the Giants.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Lots of action. Just the way I see it playing out. Good Luck.

[007D]

Thank you for your Insights on the Year and Your Hard Work . Like Your Game's. LET'S Have a Good Last Week if the Season. Much Appreciated

[Seattle Slew]

Minnesota is a tricky read. Yes, the need to stay in the No. 3 spot but you'd think they would want to win after last week's ass kicking. And even if they win, there is little chance SF loses to Arizona. I could see Minnesota winning right near the number.

But how can you put any money on this Bears team? They are awful, and Peterman is starting? How is that QB even on a practice squad? Good lord, he's awful.

[johnnyvegas13]

Two more plays. Purely based on the situation and my read on the games:

4th play = Atlanta -4 (-108).
5th play = PHI Eagles -13.5 (-109).

The teams can say whatever they want:
*Bucs are locked into their playoff slot. They need all the rest they can get.
*After all the work the Eagles have done, are they really gonna blow it? And this is first Giant playoff appearance in some time.

Bucs win chuck

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bucs win chuck

Johnny, I respect your opinion. We'll find out in two hours. That's why they play the games.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Thank you for your Insights on the Year and Your Hard Work . Like Your Game's. LET'S Have a Good Last Week if the Season. Much Appreciated

007, liked your work in the James Bond series.

Thank you. I'm trying. Can always do better.

I acknowledge Week 18 as a different handicap. Through week 17, I'm very tied to the math. In week 18, it's a different handicap.

As the season progresses, I keep one eye on the Standings and the playoff permutations. That is valuable as we head into the last week.

Good Luck today. We can only hope for the best.

[franz555]

Great insight

Im a huge homer on this one , but i think Bills are inspired by Damar's improvement not distracted by it

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Minnesota is a tricky read. Yes, the need to stay in the No. 3 spot but you'd think they would want to win after last week's ass kicking. And even if they win, there is little chance SF loses to Arizona. I could see Minnesota winning right near the number.

But how can you put any money on this Bears team? They are awful, and Peterman is starting? How is that QB even on a practice squad? Good lord, he's awful.

Thank you, Seattle Slew. Man, what a horse.

Your post summarizes a lot of my view. Here is my Projection for QB play today:

1) TBay. Brady to play two series. Just to keep the rust off.

2) MINN. I really think the pros don't worry about a tough result. They shake it off, they have their seed.
...I see Cousins playing two series w/ basic plays. Against this Bear defense, might be enough to get a working lead.
...Yes. Enough people remember Peterman and the Pick-6 history. Most won't touch him w/ a 10-foot pole.
...In a game that figures to be backup QBs vs backup QB, I'll take the +7 and hope for the best.
...Way these playoff matchups fall this week, it's a race to get most rest. These teams won't want to feel less rested.
...Take Harrison Smith, as an example. Surely he'd be playing if it was a playoff game. This week, why bother?

3) DALL. Some people won't see this. I expect Prescott to play the 1h. Check out the NYG/PHI score at half.
...If Giants are getting ripped, time to sit Prescott.
...And Dallas knows that TBay will be resting starters. Why let the Bucs gain that advantage?

Just my thoughts. GL.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Great insight

Im a huge homer on this one , but i think Bills are inspired by Damar's improvement not distracted by it

I have a peanut on Bills -7.5. Didn't catch the -7.

It's a game I don't care for. There's a real chance that the Bill players are gutted.

As of WED, this guy was still in jeopardy. We shall see.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

6th and 7th plays:

*WASH +7 (-105). The QB dropoff to Howell is not so much.

*NY Jets +3.5 (-109). Feel like the QB dropoff is bigger on the Miami side than the Jet side.

These games are admittedly very tricky. Just a few notes:

1) Wentz set the bar so low. Howell has a live arm, think he can do OK. And I do think this home dog will show some pride as Spoiler.

2) Jets have some fundamental edges w/ their defense. If the QB play just comes out neutral, the Jets should be right there. Any bump on the Dolphin "must win" need factor is too much (IMHO).

[OldBill]

super lock of week eagles -14 vs giants .........nyg is benching due too injuries allready locked in WC spot eagles get #1 seed in NFC

has to BE eagles vs Chiefs both brothers kelce's in game our center the nut with that speech after SB win and KC's to TE

[ChuckyTheGoat]

super lock of week eagles -14 vs giants .........nyg is benching due too injuries allready locked in WC spot eagles get #1 seed in NFC

has to BE eagles vs Chiefs both brothers kelce's in game our center the nut with that speech after SB win and KC's to TE

Yes, Bill. The Giant laydown is going to be bad. Will Pisarcik play QB in the 4q?

But ya gotta get the early #. Line is BLOATING, -16.5

One surprise for me today:
*Based on the lines, Chargers/Ravens not interested in securing the 5-seed.

Would seem like they would want to play that game at JAX. Might tie back to the theme you've mentioned b4. Under the current schedule, playoff teams will treat this game as a "pseudo bye-week" if they can.

Bill, give me your top 3 ELIMINATED teams (so, not in playoff) that give a strong effort today.

[johnnyvegas13]

Bucs and Steelers ml

[ChuckyTheGoat]

One surprise for me today:
*Based on the lines, Chargers/Ravens not interested in securing the 5-seed.


...Not how the CIN/DEN lines moved in unison.
...If the Ravens are laying down, why should the Chargers bother? They'll be locked into the 5-seed.

[johnnyvegas13]

Kinda like bolts regardless in that gm chuck

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Next round of games start at 4:25 est.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Ravens still going for it. If they win, would impact Chargers.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

4-4. Frustrating, b/c it could have been much better.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I have thick-skin on these games. It's gambling. Things happen.

Have to vent for a minute. I have mentioned this idea of playing around the key number of '3':
*If you are catching +3.5 and you think the fair price is 3, that's a win.
*Same thing on -2.5. If you think the fair price is 3, that's a win.

Endings of the two swing games:
*Colts get HOU into 4th/20. A heave into coverage goes through the defender. TD.
*Jets give up 25 yards for the safety. OK, they're trying.

My argument would be that these guys have no concept on that play. See the Jakobi Myers play from NE/Veg.

It's like they don't want to take a hit, so the default is to back-pass. All the time they're giving yardage.

Go watch the Stanford/Cal Kevin Moen play. All the while they're gaining yardage with a rugby-style movement. You induce contact and drop the ball off to the trailing teammate.