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  • Shawn01
    SBR Sharp
    • 10-23-05
    • 252

    #1
    Help a newb
    Okay, I'm new to sports wagering. My question is whether it's smart to wait until later in the week to place bets for next Sunday's games (after the injury reports are out, etc.) or whether it's smart to bet early, before the line can go up or down.

    Right now Cincy is -8 over the Pack, which is a wager I'd make. The Steelers -8.5 over Baltimore looks pretty good too. The under on Cleveland-Houston (37.5) is appealing as well.
  • the boss
    SBR High Roller
    • 09-10-05
    • 106

    #2
    You can really see movement early so you can then decide what to do. Pit is already at 9 so you may want to jump on it now. I would not be suprised to see it at 10 by Sunday. I would think that Houston total will go down as well. Just keep an eye out for movement. It could move in your favor but it rarely does.
    Comment
    • Razz
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 08-22-05
      • 5632

      #3
      Normally lines move in college more, and if I think the lines are moving with the side I like (generally favorites or big name teams), I take those games on Tuesday or Wednesday. If I think the line is moving the other way, obviously I'll wait until Friday or Saturday.
      Generally, NFL lines do not move as much until later in the week, so whenever you take them will be fine. The exception is if I like someone -2.5 or +3.5, or on some other key number, I take it early in the week.
      Congrats on 2-0 day yesterday. Welcome to the forum, Shawn. That under in Houston looks good to me too.
      Comment
      • Shawn01
        SBR Sharp
        • 10-23-05
        • 252

        #4
        Thanks guys, and thanks for the congrats Razz, but I made two easy picks. The under on Chicago-Baltimore was too easy at 30.5, what with those two teams having lousy offenses and great defenses. The rain helped too The Colts covering against Houston seemed obvious too, but Houston made me sweat for awhile.

        My early leanings are:
        Cincy -8 (home vs. Pack)
        Dallas -8 (home vs. 'Zona)
        Pittsburgh -8.5 (home vs. Ravens MNF)
        Under on Cleveland v. Houston (37.5)
        If the total on S.D. v. K.C. goes up I may take an under on that too. It's at 50 now.
        Hmmm. Houston -2 over the Browns? The Browns stink, but they're not winless. I may take that play as well.
        Comment
        • why
          SBR Sharp
          • 08-10-05
          • 447

          #5
          If I see something I really like, I jump it early as I am pretty confident it will move against me if I don't. I like what I like, I don't like 2nd guessing myself, good to play on gut sometimes.

          If your not sure, its best to wait until you can make a confident decision.

          Confidence is very important and luck is very nice, in fact I like luck the most!
          Comment
          • Shawn01
            SBR Sharp
            • 10-23-05
            • 252

            #6
            Originally posted by Shawn01
            My early leanings are:
            Cincy -8 (home vs. Pack)
            Dallas -8 (home vs. 'Zona)
            Pittsburgh -8.5 (home vs. Ravens MNF)
            They've already moved. Dallas is now -9, Cincy -8.5 and Pittsburgh is -9. I did bet already and got locked in at -8 for Cincy and -8.5 for Dallas.
            Comment
            • kdmfox
              SBR MVP
              • 08-11-05
              • 1743

              #7
              I hate tying my $$$ up all week ... Anyone bet the futures on any sports? ... That must be torture looking at your bet sit there forever.
              Comment
              • Shawn01
                SBR Sharp
                • 10-23-05
                • 252

                #8
                Well, I'm new to wagering so the waiting is not too bad. I decided when I started this that I would do it for the following reasons:
                1. I do not have an addictive personality
                2. When my money is gone it's gone and I'm done
                3. I won't beat myself up over bets I thought about but didn't make, which would have won (UCLA over Oregon St. springs to mind)
                4. The odds are against me ultimately, so if I win I'll appreciate the fact that I'm sticking it to The Man, at least briefly.

                Although, waiting almost a week is hard. I took the 3rd quarter over in the MNF game (7.5 pts). I'll be in bed before I know whether or not I won that.
                Comment
                • smoothsuave
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 10-11-05
                  • 172

                  #9
                  Play some parlays cheap bet low risk/ high win
                  Comment
                  • Senator7
                    SBR MVP
                    • 08-20-05
                    • 1559

                    #10
                    A good rule of thumb is that Joe Public loves favorites and overs. If you want to bet a favorite or an over, do it early in the week on Tuesday or Wednesday. If you're sitting on the underdog or the under, play it as late in the week as possible, maybe even on gameday. There's going to be certain circumstances where this doesn't apply, but its generally a very effective rule of thumb.

                    Senator 7
                    Comment
                    • Shawn01
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 10-23-05
                      • 252

                      #11
                      Thanks for the tips. I did go ahead and lay my NFL week 8 picks early. I guess how well I do will determine whether I was smart to do that or not. I appreciate the help guys.
                      Comment
                      • Shawn01
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 10-23-05
                        • 252

                        #12
                        It looks like I did well to place my wagers early in the week. I got Cincy at -8 (line is now -9.5), Dallas at -8.5 (line now -9.5), Steelers at -9 (line now -11) and Browns-Texans under at 37.5 (total now 36). All worked to my advantage. The line/total in my other bets stayed the same.
                        Comment
                        • onlooker
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 08-10-05
                          • 36572

                          #13
                          Im against Cincy and Dallas today, waiting on it to move up more.

                          Good job on getting the better lines early in the week.
                          Comment
                          • Shawn01
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 10-23-05
                            • 252

                            #14
                            Originally posted by onlòóker
                            Im against Cincy and Dallas today, waiting on it to move up more.
                            Looks like we both broke even on those two games.

                            Good job on getting the better lines early in the week.
                            Thanks.
                            Comment
                            • Brick Tamland
                              SBR MVP
                              • 08-12-05
                              • 1336

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Illusion
                              If I like a favorite I pounce on it early. I usually bet dogs closer to gametime since the general public drives the line in my favor closer to gametime.
                              There is no way to know where the line is gonna go. If you could do that youd be rich. Illusion's advice is the best answer.
                              Comment
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