Rams pass rush will dominate

DJK · 02-10-22, 10:47 PM

Originally posted by Vegas Max Bets

The LA Rams pass rush will dominate this game. Make no bones about it. They were third in sacks this season, while Cincy was third worst in sacks allowed. The Bengals gave up 9 sacks to Tennessee who are statistically inferior to LA. The Bengals line was hounded by Vegas and Maxx Crosby. The Chiefs applied a good amount of pressure as well. It's not only Aaron Donald who will go off, but both outside linebackers in Leonard and Miller. Burrow as great and elusive as he may be, will be rushed all game and will have an average game at best. Rams take this one by double digits.

Read my full analysis: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ts-thread.html

Based on your logic, the Titans should lose to the Rams but that didn't happen.

The Titans beat the Rams IN LA by 28-16 in week 9, and that was even without Derrick Henry.

Can you explain that then?

budwiser · 02-10-22, 11:13 PM

LAR do get a pass rush, their issue has been in the secondary. Rams d has put up some nasty scorelines

36 to Green Bay, 37 to Arizona

I do agree key is the pass rush to the Bengals d line. Not talked about but more important is can their secondary hold off Burrow. A positive for the Rams is Burrow likes to hold on to the ball. But we'll see. the Bengals torched the Chiefs like they weren't there, and made the better adjustments after the half.

I'll have my play Sunday.

OldBill · 02-11-22, 01:39 AM

every square and thier mother thinks same way but none also looked at bengals defnse which only .4 points less than Rams in points allowed per game Rams is 17.9 Bengals is 17.5 and both offenses scored 460 total points BUT Bengals have better point differntial

thinwhiteduke · 02-11-22, 02:10 AM

See this commercial? He disappears.
He won't matter.

Vegas Max Bets · 02-11-22, 08:46 AM

Can't compare Green Bay's line and Rodger's quickness to get rid of the ball against Cincy's line and Burrow's willingness to hold on to the ball. Two very different scenarios. Yes, Ram's secondary is concerning. However, a pass rush heals many ills, including a mediocre secondary. They gave up what 3 points to the Bucs in the first half before almost self-imploding in the second half with stupid mistakes. Burrow will be getting chased all night. He'll then try to get rid of the ball quicker with slants and screens. This will only work for a limited time. Slants are great for tipped passes that result in INTs.

Vegas Max Bets · 02-11-22, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by DJK

Based on your logic, the Titans should lose to the Rams but that didn't happen.

The Titans beat the Rams IN LA by 28-16 in week 9, and that was even without Derrick Henry.

Can you explain that then?

Yes, do you realize how the Titans won that game? They STOPPED a great QB (Stafford) via their pass rush. Ask Brady, Manning, and any all time great QB how you quell a great offense. Answer: Ferocious pass rush. In this game what works against Cincy even more is their shitty O-line.

budwiser · 02-11-22, 09:56 AM

Originally posted by Vegas Max Bets

Can't compare Green Bay's line and Rodger's quickness to get rid of the ball against Cincy's line and Burrow's willingness to hold on to the ball. Two very different scenarios. Yes, Ram's secondary is concerning. However, a pass rush heals many ills, including a mediocre secondary. They gave up what 3 points to the Bucs in the first half before almost self-imploding in the second half with stupid mistakes. Burrow will be getting chased all night. He'll then try to get rid of the ball quicker with slants and screens. This will only work for a limited time. Slants are great for tipped passes that result in INTs.

Pass rush didn't matter at all in the Green Bay game. They could have had 4 Aaron Donalds and the receivers were open all night. The question becomes can the Bengals do the same as Rodgers or as you said is Burrow going to hold on to the ball/recievers not open.

JAKEPEAVY21 · 02-11-22, 10:19 AM

Thinking the same thing...Aaron Donald and company will reek havoc on that porous Cinci oline...

Vegas Max Bets · 02-11-22, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by budwiser

Pass rush didn't matter at all in the Green Bay game. They could have had 4 Aaron Donalds and the receivers were open all night. The question becomes can the Bengals do the same as Rodgers or as you said is Burrow going to hold on to the ball/recievers not open.

The pass rush didn't matter against GB because their line blocks very well. Cincinnati's line is third worst in the league. That's my point. It's very extremely rare for a team to get this deep with such a horrid O line.

budwiser · 02-11-22, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by Vegas Max Bets

The pass rush didn't matter against GB because their line blocks very well. Cincinnati's line is third worst in the league. That's my point. It's very extremely rare for a team to get this deep with such a horrid O line.

I agree with that. Maybe Cinci is a fraud, maybe not. I'll let everyone know on Sunday. I hate waiting gotta get my bets in and wait for the public to find value. Credit to your writeup

Vegas Max Bets · 02-11-22, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by budwiser

I agree with that. Maybe Cinci is a fraud, maybe not. I'll let everyone know on Sunday. I hate waiting gotta get my bets in and wait for the public to find value. Credit to your writeup

Both teams are fairly even outside both the offensive and defensive lines. Huge advantage on both goes to LA.

LAR pass rush win rate (#1) vs CIN pass block (#30)
CIN pass rush (#25) vs LAR pass block (#1)

LAR run block win rate (#12) vs CIN run stop (#25)
CIN run block (#10) vs LAR run stop (#1) https://t.co/Ys1K4zsfvn

sk0002 · 02-11-22, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by Vegas Max Bets

The pass rush didn't matter against GB because their line blocks very well. Cincinnati's line is third worst in the league. That's my point. It's very extremely rare for a team to get this deep with such a horrid O line.

where do you even get that Bengals offensive line being the 3rd worst in the league? https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-final-2...-line-rankings they are a little below average according to this ranking, but since it made the headlines in every god damn story and every god damn people focusing on that, burrow being sacked 9 times vs Tennessee. Everyone been using the same logic to cap their games moving forward.... is it a coincidence that burrow wasn't sacked a single time since the meltdown vs Tennessee???? When something made a lot of noise, usually that becomes a nonfactor. Keep that in mind.

DJK · 02-11-22, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by sk0002

where do you even get that Bengals offensive line being the 3rd worst in the league? https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-final-2...-line-rankings they are a little below average according to this ranking, but since it made the headlines in every god damn story and every god damn people focusing on that, burrow being sacked 9 times vs Tennessee. Everyone been using the same logic to cap their games moving forward.... is it a coincidence that burrow wasn't sacked a single time since the meltdown vs Tennessee???? When something made a lot of noise, usually that becomes a nonfactor. Keep that in mind.

^ This ^

sk0002 · 02-11-22, 10:53 AM

Originally posted by Vegas Max Bets

Both teams are fairly even outside both the offensive and defensive lines. Huge advantage on both goes to LA.

LAR pass rush win rate (#1) vs CIN pass block (#30)
CIN pass rush (#25) vs LAR pass block (#1)

LAR run block win rate (#12) vs CIN run stop (#25)
CIN run block (#10) vs LAR run stop (#1) https://t.co/Ys1K4zsfvn

you love to focus on the numbers and mismatch on the lines, how about this https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/sta...258372/photo/1

budwiser · 02-11-22, 10:59 AM

Originally posted by sk0002

you love to focus on the numbers and mismatch on the lines, how about this https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/sta...258372/photo/1

That's why I said the bigger issue is can the Rams cover

We can guarantee the Rams dline will get to Burrow in a second and a half. We all know exactly what the d line will do. But if your secondary sux that doesn't matter.

Vegas Max Bets · 02-11-22, 11:01 AM

Originally posted by sk0002

where do you even get that Bengals offensive line being the 3rd worst in the league? https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-final-2...-line-rankings they are a little below average according to this ranking, but since it made the headlines in every god damn story and every god damn people focusing on that, burrow being sacked 9 times vs Tennessee. Everyone been using the same logic to cap their games moving forward.... is it a coincidence that burrow wasn't sacked a single time since the meltdown vs Tennessee???? When something made a lot of noise, usually that becomes a nonfactor. Keep that in mind.

Rather, they were third worst in sacks allowed.

DJK · 02-11-22, 11:02 AM

sk0002 and budwiser,

What are you guys betting on?

sk0002 · 02-11-22, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by Vegas Max Bets

Rather, they were third worst in sacks allowed.

yes that was because burrow loves to hold onto the ball for a long time, but given the opponent he will be facing, ferocious D-line, and the noise it made, he will focus on getting rid of the ball fast, which he's very capable of doing which plays to the strength of burrow and the weakness of the rams as shown in this chart. Rams were among the league worst in that situation which means their secondary sucks even if they got a big name like ramsey, hes not superman, he cant cover everyone

budwiser · 02-11-22, 11:53 AM

Originally posted by DJK

sk0002 and budwiser,

What are you guys betting on?

on Sunday. gotta get bets in

seems obvious sk0002 is on the bengals

thinwhiteduke · 02-11-22, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by sk0002

yes that was because burrow loves to hold onto the ball for a long time, but given the opponent he will be facing, ferocious D-line, and the noise it made, he will focus on getting rid of the ball fast, which he's very capable of doing which plays to the strength of burrow and the weakness of the rams as shown in this chart. Rams were among the league worst in that situation which means their secondary sucks even if they got a big name like ramsey, hes not superman, he cant cover everyone

Link page please? Or message me it?

DJK · 02-11-22, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by thinwhiteduke

Link page please? Or message me it?

See post #15.

https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/sta...258372/photo/1