OK OK so sick of hearing you say teams can win a SB when it is IMPOSSIBLE

[OldBill]

LIKE really THE COLTS season over 0-3 start and now guaranteed cannot get win the s b they lost to TB

NO TEAM that lost to TB in season ever won a SB including the 4 who got there

Saints do not count they didnt play final 3 games of year too many injuries on team

so allthese teams are done because they all lost to tampa bay

Cowboys Falcons Patriots Dolphins Eagles Bears Giants Colts 8 teams GONE

no teams except the NYG that played in london eveer got to a SB

this years london teams Jaguars JETS Dolphins Falcons 12 teams eliminated

Teams that start out 0-2 or worse only two who started out 0-2 won superbowls Giants and Cowboys

add these to the list

LIONS Bears Jets

NO team that got shutout since we started 16 game schedule EVER got to superbowl or covered spraed Patriots lost 1st game to Bills 31-0 lost $$ -7.5 to Panthers

always Miami every year 35-0 by Bills Falcons 25-0 by Patriots JETS 20-0 by Broncos Sehawks 17-0 by Packers

NO team with a losing DIV record never got to SB ......

NO team that LOST 4 games in a ROW NEVER Got to Superbowl

NO TEAMS with a tied game ever won a sb or got there except the 49ers who s/u lost as 4.5 fav to the Ravens

they tied with div rival rams again since we had the 16 game schedule

STEELERS LIONS TIED game

NO teams that got in on a low ranked s o s like 28th or worst EVER won a SB

2 teams i recall got in 32nd raked S O S old seahawks as a 5 point dog lost to steelers

the 15-1 Panthers lost to DENVER and they were a 5 pt fav

and if any team that gets in as a WC plays away final game of year THEY will not get to superbowl

because it would be 4 straight road games with no break

49ers 2nd year back lost at 4th game @ seattle as a 3 pt dog by 6 points

and NO host teams will be playing at home in SB Rams and Chargers

i truly belive it happend last year becuse of COVID issues


oooooooo yes last 10 teams who QB was MVP of year NEVER got to SB last year Packers finals game lost to T B 2nd time of season

[Str8Mush4Life]

Are you Mike Matusow?

[OldBill]

Are you Mike Matusow?

no just is what it is the years past results are repeated every year

another 100% curse is whoever is on the cover of the marc lawrence playbook NEVER WON a superbowl my 1st loss was seattle vs Patriots game was pc em Wilson was on the cover that year then year Brady was on cover also the madden jinx and MVP of League i hammered my Eagles with huge casino win $1500... on the ML +145 which just pointed out to me that was way to low for neutral filed

also took overs because Doug was using all weapons and just wanted to outscore Patriots

then next uear omg Eagles were forced to play in london and also lost to TB team was in shambles

STILLwe neeed help the O line is weak and Hurts just kills any chances of us making it to playoffs

I'll give Siranni a break cause it's his 1st year but time to replce GM howie Roseman

[OldBill]

so allthese teams are done because they all lost to tampa bay

Cowboys Falcons Patriots Dolphins Eagles Bears Giants Colts 8 teams GONE add the Bills thats 9 teams

any teams that lost 4 weeks in a row never played in a SB

6 teams more eliminated Broncos Bears 49ers Saints Panthers WASH 14 teams cannot win sb

add in Chargers and Rams because they are host teams 16 teams gone yeah last year was because NO FANS were allowed in stadiums plus games cancelled due to Covid

plus the teams that are losing subbies thee only possible AFC team is the CHIEFS the rest of afc eliminated COLTS 0-3 start and lost to Tampa Bay //Titans just falling apart now losing at home to Texans a div team is a red flag

afc east done Pats n Bills both lost to TB afc north a joke steelers tied game with lions POOF since we started 16 game season no team with a tied game ever won a SB icluing one who got ther the 49ers -4.5 points s/u lost to Ravens was toughest call for me but i knew that kraperdick was not fully ready to win he barely played year before and only played 7 games that year

I truly believe that NO afc south teams will ever play in a SB just too many missing parts #1 the quaterbacks

Titans need running back to take over from the beast .............omg the QB is a joke Packers never relied on a RB Patriots hell no they tom freking brady

THE stiff starting QB's just come up short at wrong time of year

as we were told long ago it's not what you do in sept that counts BUT IN DEC that matters most

YOU want to go in winning NOT losing games final 4 weeks of year maybe take week off when seeding is set

afc rep will be Chiefs vs either Packers or Tampa bay and Packers reaming sos is far above Tampas which is ranked 30th

Green bay was 4th strongest full season now ranked 19th

and trust me the League would love to see Brady or Rodgers face off with Mahoomes

[garygroundwork]

afc rep will be Chiefs vs either Packers or Tampa bay



Agree.

At the moment.

[OldBill]

afc rep will be Chiefs vs either Packers or Tampa bay



Agree.

At the moment.

IF you look deeper into games were teams won huge over nothings like texans jagurs Lions then next game vs a team thats has 4 wins or more comes in thier home as small chalk and wins and covers

[OldBill]

adding Teams whose starting QB got shut out even if was 2nd string starter

TB 9-0 by saints NONE ever won a sb or got there Dolphins 35-0 shut out

Seattle 17-0 by packers Wilson 1st game back from injury

Teams with Rookie HC's

Arthur Smith falcons

Dan Campbell LIONS

David Culley TEXANS

Urban Meyer JAGUARS

Brandon Staley Chargers

Robert Saleh JETS

Nick Sirianni EAGLES

every team that lost 4 or more games in a Row never played in a sb and thats a long list this year

hoping 49ers beat rams again cards win final game and take div win with better div record 5-1

dosent matter NMFW rams injuries and Stafford play at home in SB soon as they meet up with Cards or even Cowboys poof

ODDS are not available for Rams to play at home field in SB would be 55-1 last year happend because NO FANS in games and CIVID cancellations rescheduling

[OldBill]

let's look at teams that lost 4 weeks in row or more that can make playoffs

MIAMI lost 7 in a row from 9/13 to OCT 3st OUT OF Playoffs with last loss

COLTS 1-4 start in playoffs BUT aint coming out LOST to BUCS also

BRONCOS lost 4 in row early season and just sealed fate losing 4 out of last 5 only win vs Lions

WASH lost 4 in a row early season and just now but they upset T B rested off bye week LOL

RAVENS lost last 5 games

49ERS LOST 4 in a row 9/26 - 10/24 LONG SHOT to GET WC or just spolier roll @ rams

SAINTS lost 4 in row from 11/4 to 12/2

[Fred The Hammer]

Dude you have severe ADD? Please try to write something in a structured manner that makes sense in some way


This year is as wide open as the NFL has ever been. Everybody has holes.

[Fred The Hammer]

afc rep will be Chiefs vs either Packers or Tampa bay




Agree.

At the moment.

I'm biased because I hate Brady, but Cam Akers is the real deal. He makes the Rams the best team on paper in the NFL imo. Love Rodgers but wouldn't be surprised to see Stafford get him in the NFC Championship

[StackinGreen]

If Bill's "locks" get blown up he'll conveniently forget to remind us

[princeinexile]

OP doesn’t grasp causation. Many bettors make this mistake. Most betting “trends” aren’t trends at all. They’re anomalies which will always occur in sports and life. Bettors often misinterpret data or apply significance to it attempting to extrapolate order from randomness or unpredictability.

[stevenash]

Dude you have severe ADD? Please try to write something in a structured manner that makes sense in some way

20 milligrams of Adderall with clear that right up.

[stevenash]

OP doesn’t grasp causation. Many bettors make this mistake. Most betting “trends” aren’t trends at all. They’re anomalies which will always occur in sports and life. Bettors often misinterpret data or apply significance to it attempting to extrapolate order from randomness or unpredictability.

Yeah.

I tried explaining to some bozo that a game played between two teams in 2014 has zero impact on a game involving the same two teams playing a game tomorrow.

Went completely over his head.

[OldBill]

Sorry FRED the hammer i'm not pro sports Writer let me see if i can clear up THE facts that eliminate teams from winning the superbowl or even getting there

11 Teams this year have lost to THE BUCS the amazing 100% record of teams losing to TB not winning S B's from 1977 thru to last year was

0-249 includes 4 teams who got there 3 dogs one huge DD Chalk the Rams

these teams all lost to TB that are div winners and WC teams Patriots BILLS Cowboys Eagles who's LEFT to BEAt G B in GB NO FREAKING BODY big whoop Rams beat BUCS but now a complete mess and div goes to cards if rams lose to 49ers again Cards div record is 4-1

rams is 3-2 IF YOU think that Stafford can win on the road in Playoffs after completly tossing INT's at ravens and a fumbles by team kick a FG to win by 1 point is GOING to propel them to Play at home field in the SB go ahead BETS rams to win it all

LONG ODDS very high

EVERY team THat ate a bagel in season NEVER played in SB T B ate one by Saints 9-0

YES patriots did get there but that was due to emotional loss week 1 vs Bills late notice from office Capt of defense was traded away BUT they Blew the COVER vs Panthers win by 3 as a huge 7.5 chalk

Teams with rookie HC's will not play in superbowl only one WC is there Siranni of Eagles possible 2 Chargers

EVERY team that lost 4 or more games in a Row never made it out of Playoffs

the teams that lost 4 in a row or more that have a chance to win playoffs are 2 49ers and Saints The others are out of playoffs

NOW LOOK at Rams spread at HOME VS 49ers a teeny tiny -4 and 49ers beat the lowly Texans with Back up QB


ooooooooooooo 1 more 100% elimination teams that had tied game in Season never played in a SB or WON it the one who lost it was 49ers -4.5 fav to Ravens I quickly dropped ML on Ravens ravens and overs parlay with local bookie he cried after game was over

This years Teams Steelers n Lions and Steelers are not making Playoffs Ravens can beat them lol Ravens lost steelers won huge ravens are -4 chalk

Chargers or raiders grab final WC spot

OK Mr Hammer we clear NOW?

[Str8Mush4Life]

[stevenash]

Easy Bill.
I can't speak for all of us, but I appreciate your contributions here.

I think Fred was trying to say that one post read like a run on sentence.
I know Fred, he's a good egg, I don't think he meant any harm.

[thinwhiteduke]

OP doesn’t grasp causation. Many bettors make this mistake. Most betting “trends” aren’t trends at all. They’re anomalies which will always occur in sports and life. Bettors often misinterpret data or apply significance to it attempting to extrapolate order from randomness or unpredictability.

You're just babbling as well then. History does matter.
You're watching entertainment influenced by numerology.

[Fred The Hammer]

Easy Bill.
I can't speak for all of us, but I appreciate your contributions here.

I think Fred was trying to say that one post read like a run on sentence.
I know Fred, he's a good egg, I don't think he meant any harm.

Did I mean harm? No, but wtf does losing to TB during the Dungy era or whatever have to do with today? Zero. Statistical anomaly is what thats called. It means nothing.

[Fred The Hammer]

OP doesn’t grasp causation. Many bettors make this mistake. Most betting “trends” aren’t trends at all. They’re anomalies which will always occur in sports and life. Bettors often misinterpret data or apply significance to it attempting to extrapolate order from randomness or unpredictability.

I believe in alot of trends that factor in current players (QBs) or teams, but just blindly saying anyone that lost to Tampa this year can't win the SB because anyone that lost to TB has never won the SB that season is a crazy statement. They've been a franchise for 45 years!

[OldBill]

I believe in alot of trends that factor in current players (QBs) or teams, but just blindly saying anyone that lost to Tampa this year can't win the SB because anyone that lost to TB has never won the SB that season is a crazy statement. They've been a franchise for 45 years!

adding in the 11 that lost to tampa bay the record will now be 0-260 SO fredhammer take your pic Colts Patriots Bills Cowboys Eagles

your odds are 260-1 well no sorry not it's 249-1

[stevenash]

Did I mean harm? No, but wtf does losing to TB during the Dungy era or whatever have to do with today? Zero. Statistical anomaly is what thats called. It means nothing.

That's why I say the Eagles/Cowboys game played in 2008 has absolutely no effect on the game that's going right now.

Yet it's astounding the number of people that actually use those past results in their decision making when it comes down to betting the game.

Correct.

[Renegades]

The best trends are the ones with very few parameters and ones that make logical sense. IE teams that lost by 17+ the previous week are 60% winners the next week or teams that rank highly rushing are great bets as DD underdogs. Angles/trends like that make logical sense and they are isolated to one or two parameters

[Mike Huntertz]

That's why I say the Eagles/Cowboys game played in 2008 has absolutely no effect on the game that's going right now.

Yet it's astounding the number of people that actually use those past results in their decision making when it comes down to betting the game.

Correct.

I can't believe how many people and talking heads buy into this crap.
That's why the books make money.

[stevenash]

I can't believe how many people and talking heads buy into this crap.
That's why the books make money.

There's a half dozen regular posters here that think it's relevant, and God forbid if you try to set them straight.

[princeinexile]

You're just babbling as well then. History does matter.
You're watching entertainment influenced by numerology.

You may disagree with the statement(s) in the post, but I’m not sure how it could be interpreted as babbling.

I used the words many, most and often. I did not use “all” or “always”. Of course there are times when history can be used to try to predict what the outcome will be. I submit if it were as simple as following trends the book would be at a disadvantage, and most of what bettors think are trends are merely anomalies. You’re free to disagree.

I’m not sure what influence the occult/mysticism has on sporting events. You’d have to explain how that works.

[OldBill]

ya know what I will let the results speak for them selves Patriots Bills Cowboys Eagles in Play offs have all LOST to TB

100% lock none of the 4 will win the SB

[OldBill]

OK patriots double iss of death a rookie QB in 1st season NEVER led hi team to a SB

and they lost to Tampa Bay every team that lost to Tampa that in the playoffs will not be playig in the SB

Teams with qb's 1st time in plyoffs will do an exit

Packers vs Chiefs and until some team figures out to stop KC dynmic Offense even tho they play finals away @ titans im sticking with my SB matchup Chiefs vs Packers