TK/$tackin Green NFL Plays 2017-2018

[StackinGreen]

Adding Chicago +3.5, 3 more units

In order to keep records with straight bets, I'll not count this either way, but I will be playing Chicago +160 tomorrow for a nickel.

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19-14-2
+13.8 units

[Tommy Karate]

Monday 10.9

(2u) Vikings -3.5

[StackinGreen]

Adding Chicago +3.5, 3 more units

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20-15-2
+13.5 units

[Tommy Karate]

NFL Week 4: 7-4 (+5u)
NFL YTD: 16-17 (-13u)

NFL Week 5: 5-5 (-10u)
NFL YTD: 21-22 (-23u)

[Tommy Karate]

Thur 10.12

(2u) Over Panthers/Eagles 45.5
(1u) Eagles +3.5

[StackinGreen]

Week 6

Philadelphia/Carolina over 44, 7 units

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20-15-2
+13.5 units

[Tommy Karate]

Sun 10.15

(6u) Falcons -12.5
(2u) Under Ravens/Bears 39.5
(2u) Vikings +3
(1u) Under GB/Min 45.5
(4u) Over Saints/Lions 49.5
(2u) Saints -4
(1u) Jets*
(6u) Redskins -11
(6u) Broncos -11/-120
(4u) Under Jags/Rams 43

[StackinGreen]

Week 6

Philadelphia/Carolina over 44, 7 units

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20-15-2
+13.5 units

New England -9, 6 units
New Orleans -4, 4 units
Green Bay -3, 4 units
Baltimore -6.5, 3 units
Kansas City -4, 3 units

[StackinGreen]

Sun 10.15

(6u) Falcons -12.5
(2u) Under Ravens/Bears 39.5
(2u) Vikings +3
(1u) Under GB/Min 45.5

I like those two unders, TK. I'm on favorites for once, this week. I was tempted to go with the huge Washington and Atlanta lines, then decided against it.

[Ryermkd]

Johnny Public this week eh? Guess you're thinking Vegas is due for a change-up...

[StackinGreen]

Johnny Public this week eh? Guess you're thinking Vegas is due for a change-up...

Actually across the board though, the highest # bets is GB at around 70%. Very few truly lopsided public plays are in order, even though spreads are big, generally speaking. I consider 75% plus to be a major public play to strongly consider staying away from

[Tommy Karate]

shit - forgot josh norman is out; what do you guys think about the wash play?

i guess its not like theyre facing any elite stud wideout; garcon is good but not a game changing WR...

[Ryermkd]

I leaned WAS early in the week, but money seems to be coming in on them...
Maybe I'm too skeptical but money flow is so key for betting the circus.
They should honestly crush them, I think SF has looked better than they really are.

[2daBank]

My concern with laying a number w skins is how bad they tend to be in the red zone, settling for fgs a good way not to cover dd spread. Plus it has to be some concern missing top corner and a safety vs a team chucking up 44 passes a game their last 3... I think eventually skins will wear sf down as they should own time of possession but honestly think it looks like a 7-10 point win, could be more i came up w fairly high number of scoring drives for skins (like 6!!) I just made half of them fgs cause that pretty typical for them. They punch in one more td than I give them and they cover. Assuming my numbers right, lol.. gl

[Tommy Karate]

Sun 10.15

(6u) Falcons -12.5
(2u) Under Ravens/Bears 39.5
(2u) Vikings +3
(1u) Under GB/Min 45.5
(4u) Over Saints/Lions 49.5
(2u) Saints -4
(1u) Jets*
(6u) Redskins -11
(6u) Broncos -11/-120
(4u) Under Jags/Rams 43

(4u) Chargers +3.5

[RavensFan2k3]

Sun 10.15

(6u) Falcons -12.5
(2u) Under Ravens/Bears 39.5
(2u) Vikings +3
(1u) Under GB/Min 45.5
(4u) Over Saints/Lions 49.5
(2u) Saints -4
(1u) Jets*
(6u) Redskins -11
(6u) Broncos -11/-120
(4u) Under Jags/Rams 43

Why so confident with Atlanta? I was really liking Miami here. Also Redskins laying double digit numbers?

[Tommy Karate]

Why so confident with Atlanta? I was really liking Miami here. Also Redskins laying double digit numbers?

atl off a loss, off a bye week to prepare vs jay cutler

wash started playing very well before their last loss in kc which was still a good effort vs a great team; week to prepare off a bye (another week for cousins and pryor to build chemistry); the west coast team at 1pm doesnt hurt either

[momo2017]

Looking good so far. Great research and analysis. Cant wait for the pm plays

[lovetobet]

Good job guys, nice thread!!

[Tommy Karate]

Why so confident with Atlanta? I was really liking Miami here. Also Redskins laying double digit numbers?

Hope you stuck with your leans.

forgive me if i dont reply with reasoning going forward - im like 5% ATS when i give some type of writeup

[Tommy Karate]

Sun 10.15

(6u) Falcons -12.5
(2u) Under Ravens/Bears 39.5
(2u) Vikings +3
(1u) Under GB/Min 45.5
(4u) Over Saints/Lions 49.5
(2u) Saints -4
(1u) Jets*
(6u) Redskins -11
(6u) Broncos -11/-120
(4u) Under Jags/Rams 43

(4u) Chargers +3.5

(2u) Over LAC/Oak 48
(2u) KC -3.5

[momo2017]

Atl choke

Atlanta choke up too early 1st half, knew 2nd half would hunt them

[hotcross]

forgive me if i dont reply with reasoning going forward - im like 5% ATS when i give some type of writeup

find this true for my picks also....lately. Maybe its a cycle like the full moon or something.

Experimenting so far with this method, I do the writeup for myself, later give it to a friend and have them read it to me. If it makes me wanna take a dump while hearing it, I know its crap and go the other way. 70%+ so far keeping track.

[RavensFan2k3]

Hope you stuck with your leans.

forgive me if i dont reply with reasoning going forward - im like 5% ATS when i give some type of writeup

I did, plus some others. Goodluck tonight

[Tommy Karate]

find this true for my picks also....lately. Maybe its a cycle like the full moon or something.

Experimenting so far with this method, I do the writeup for myself, later give it to a friend and have them read it to me. If it makes me wanna take a dump while hearing it, I know its crap and go the other way. 70%+ so far keeping track.

ha - nice system

[Tommy Karate]

Monday 10.16

(4u) Over Colts/Titans 48
(2u) Colts +8

[Tommy Karate]

NFL Week 5: 5-5 (-10u)
NFL YTD: 21-22 (-23u)

NFL Week 6: 9-8 (-12u)
NFL YTD: 30-30 (-35u)

[Tommy Karate]

Thur 10.19

(2u) KC -3
(1u) Under KC/Oak 47

[StackinGreen]

Unders have been killing, why not. Oakland can't score, divisional. Sometimes both Ds give up more than you think possible, however. Hmmm

[Leesinkickedme]

Unders have been killing, why not. Oakland can't score, divisional. Sometimes both Ds give up more than you think possible, however. Hmmm

Who do you like tonight SG? TIA

[StackinGreen]

Week 7

Titans/Browns under 45.5, 5 units
Packers +4, 4 units
Vikings -5, 4 units
Bills -3 (-105), 5 units
Panthers/Bears over 40.5, 5 units

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22-19-2
+6.9 units

[Tommy Karate]

Sun 10.22

(2u) Titans -5.5
(2u) Jaguars -3
(2u) Bengals*
(4u) Vikings -4.5
(20u) Over Falcons/Patriots 56

[StackinGreen]

Sun 10.22

(2u) Titans -5.5
(2u) Jaguars -3
(2u) Bengals*
(4u) Vikings -4.5
(20u) Over Falcons/Patriots 56

I'm loving that over tonight too, the height of it makes me think, yes, it is going 30-27, lol

I'm with you

[StackinGreen]

Week 7

Titans/Browns under 45.5, 5 units
Packers +4, 4 units
Vikings -5, 4 units
Bills -3 (-105), 5 units
Panthers/Bears over 40.5, 5 units

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22-19-2
+6.9 units

Adding

Cowboys/49ers under 48.5, 4 units
Falcons/Patriots over 56.5, 6 units

[StackinGreen]

Falcons an absolute embarrassment. We're gonna need turnovers or special teams TDs in the 2H