1. #36
    Aunty808
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    Recap of June 25 Sunday

    Where's the broom?
    Yesterday was the very first time I swept everything I played.
    My contest picks all won...
    Stl+145 (7-5)
    Atl-220 (7-6)
    Atl/OV11' (13)
    Col+130 (4-3)
    *Phil-170 (7-6)

    I won a total of +$2875 in fake money!!

    Then I took the OVER11' in the Atl/Cinn game for my survivor pick and won. Streak is at 1. I really have to stop making stupid guesses and wait for something solid to pick. I have 7 days to make the next pick.

    Then I chose Acuna and Murphy vs Cinn for my BTS picks and they got their hits. BTS is at 3.

    Clean Sweep! Yea for me!!

    I wrote about the StlCubs, Atl/Cinn, and Col/LAA games but used a different tool (experiment) to pick Philly. I'll see if that tool really works before posting games that qualify. Another game I did matchups on was the Tor/Oak game It went in Toronto's favor, which won, but I didn't play or post that game because the picture wasn't as clear as the ones above.

    I had to stop posting at another site due to time constraints. It just took up too much of my time and their format was different, I spent half my life trying to clean up the post each day, that I didn't have time to make my picks for the day. The games usually all started by then and sometimes my picks (BTS) went down the toilet because the games started by the time I finished posting over there. What a relief.

    I now have the time to focus on doing the matchups and finding my picks for my contests. Also, I'm not so tired from doing the matchups as I found an easier way to do the matchups with a better overall picture of the games.
    Lots of winners (game predictions I did) since I stopped posting on the other site. I feel more focused now and not so much of a scatterbrain....maybe because I'm not so tired anymore.

    As for today's games, I found one game that I wanted to do, but it looks like it won't be played due to weather. It's the Cinn/Balt game. I will do that matchup, plus others, but the weather sure looks bad today. There's a couple of Dome games that will not be affected so maybe I'll take a look at that game.

    Be back later

  2. #37
    Aunty808
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    Today's Games June 26

    Like I said earlier, the one game that caught my eye was the Cinn/Balt game.

    Everything comes up green, meaning there's gonna be lot of hits. Irvin is a below average pitcher by my standards. He doesn't have any Ace games, doesn't give up a whole lot of hits, but enough to make me want to bet Cinn+105 and OV10. They just had their long win streak broken, but I think, IMHO, they can win this game.

    I did the other games and here are the results.
    I'll be real short due to lack of time.

    Wash@Sea-250
    Results say Seattle is the way to go. Wash lineup scored all negatives except for 2. Garcia and Ruiz both scored a low positive of L+1. Besides scoring all negatives, looking at Williams game log, his last game was one of his seasons best, scored one of his highest fantasy points 33, which in fantasyland not that great.

    Mil/NYM-165
    This game favors the Mets, but not by much. Their scored were all mixed with the highest of S8 and the lowest M4. Half of the Milw lineup was negative and the positives fell between L+1 and M+5. I came across a player who scored a Xtreme-9 (that's in favor of pitcher) and the pitchers box was green (a bad sign for batter). Gonna keep an eye out to see if he's gonna get a hit.

    Minn/Atl-225
    No wonder the odds are so high for Atl. Atlanta is all green (positive) and Minn vs Strider is all red (negative) except for Farmer, M+4.

    Gonna post this now and do the other games in a bit.

  3. #38
    Aunty808
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    Late Games June 26

    Det/Tex-200The two pitchers are just about even in their numbers. Heaney- .230 BAA, 89.7%/38.5% (EV-HH%) with a 64 rating. Boyd- .249 BAA, 88.6%/35.6% (EV-HH%) and rated a 78.
    The results of the matchups were equal too, splashes of reds and greens for both lineups. What makes my lean toward Texas is, not only are they one of the best offenses, but, because Boyd's last game was one of his best. He scored a 43 in fantasy points and pitched 6 innings giving up 6 hits, 2 runs and 2ER, 0 BB,7 S/O. But that was against KC.
    Usually when I see an average or a not so good pitcher, who's last game was really good game, I like to go against that pitcher in his next game. ACE pitchers are different, they can pitch several good game in a row.


    CWS/LAA-125
    Usually when I see an average or a not so good pitcher, who's last game was really good game, I like to go against that pitcher in his next game. ACE pitchers are different, they can pitch several good game in a row. That's Detmers. I'll bet the White Sox+105


    That's it. We'll see how it goes today.....

  4. #39
    Aunty808
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    Recap
    Contest picks went 3-3, lost $825.

    After reading my write ups, I should have taken the dog in the Texas game. If the results of my matchups are even or almost even, I have to learn to lean toward the dog and take the plus money because usually the favorite will be, as in todays game (Tex-200), a big number. I lost $1000 on that game alone in the contest. I'm still learning, gotta be more selective when taking those big favorites.

    And another thing, the matchups I do are against the SP. Who would've guessed that Boyd would exist the game after just 2 outs and 15 pitches with a sore elbow. Not making excuses for the loss, but geez......makes me wonder....are the games "fixed" like the NFL?...LOL...just kidding.
    Texas did have a chance to win it in the 9th, but with the bases loaded, Seager hit a flyout instead of a Slam. Texas also went 0-10 with RISP, and left 9 on base.

    The Cinn/Balt game results left me disappointed in Cinn. I expected SP Irvin to play more than three innings. I have to find a way to figure in the BULLPENS in my Method matchups. Cinn's BP sucks royally. Gave up 10 of Balt's 12 hits. I should thank the BP for the OV10 contest win....Mahalo BP!!

    I was too tired to read the other recaps. Oh, I did read the CWS/LAA recap. White Sox lost the game in the 9th inning, tied 1-1, Trout scored on a wild pitch. If I was home watching the game, I would've been pissed cause I took CWS in my contest......so close.....but like they say, close only counts in horseshoes.

    Anyways, sounding like a broken record, I repeat myself. My opinions on the matchups I do are just that, my opinion. Take it with a grain of salt. My "'capping" is still in the amateur hour stage...please do your own homework.

    I sat out today in the BTS contest. Usually on Monday and Thursday, the travel days, there's less games played. Good time to take the day off. And today, the leaderboard got wiped out. Most popular picks were McLean and Seager.

    NOTE: I just want to thank the forum for letting me post here. I appreciate everybody stopping by and reading. I'm very happy noone replies to this thread. Keeps it free from clutter and easier for me to go back to read. Over the years, I've tried posting at other sites, but too many egomaniacs chased me away. It's nice here. Again, thanks for letting me post in my little space here.

    Be back tomorrow.

  5. #40
    Optional
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aunty808 View Post
    NOTE: I just want to thank the forum for letting me post here. I appreciate everybody stopping by and reading. I'm very happy noone replies to this thread. Keeps it free from clutter and easier for me to go back to read. Over the years, I've tried posting at other sites, but too many egomaniacs chased me away. It's nice here. Again, thanks for letting me post in my little space here.

    Be back tomorrow.
    Your posts are appreciated and definitely are being read from the view stats of this thread.

  6. #41
    Aunty808
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    June 27 Tuesday

    These are the games I looked at today.

    +165DetTex-185 OV9'
    Matchups turned up all green for both teams. Detroit been hitting well recently and I think they continue to win. And seeing so much green, I'll take the OV9' in what I think will be a slugfest. I also read that there's two days out of the week where the dogs like to bark and Tuesday (Underdog S/U 77-83 (42.4%) Profit +$2160.38) was one of them.
    From the game preview I read,( C/P in bold )In his career vs. the Tigers, Perez is 2-5 with a 6.47 ERA in 12 appearances, including 11 starts. He pitched at Detroit on May 30, getting a no-decision after giving up six runs on seven hits with four walks and three strikeouts over 4 2/3 innings. Give me a little more confidence in choosing the Tigers after reading that piece.


    +120KClev-140 O/U9
    I like picking on Singer so I did the matchup. Hopefully he won't have a good game cause he has won a couple. I like Cleveland to win the game, but seeing almost all green for both team, I don't know. Remember in yesterday's Recap? I said I need to be more selective in choosing favorite. This one makes me stop and think before hitting button taking Cleveland in my contest. KC been winning games they weren't supposed to win, most recently beating Tampa Bay twice. Williams will be starting his second game and is an average pitcher by my standards so who knows.....

    LAD/Col
    If the Dodgers cannot beat the living daylights out of Colorado today, I will quit capping baseball. Everything points to a dirty lickin' for the Rockies. Kershaw is rated a 3 and Seabold has a rating of 384. Matchup for Dodgers lineup is all Xtreme9 and 10's. They are playing at Coors field. I'm taking the Dodgers and OV11'. If this bet loses, I quit baseball...LOL End of story.
    Last edited by Aunty808; 06-27-23 at 06:13 PM. Reason: formatiing

  7. #42
    Aunty808
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    Recap and Early Game

    I lost the Det+165 bet, won the O9'.LAD-280 won but lost the O11'. A team like the Dodgers, playing at Coors Field against a SP with a .285BAA, who is rated in fantasyland at 384.....only 5 runs? They should cut everybody's salary in half and donate it to charity.
    I did take Clev-140 and won that bet.


    I talked about the dogs winning 2 days out of the week so took a look at a couple of games.
    After looking at the matchup results, I ended up taking Mia+105, Oak+115 and Mil+125. Mia and Oak won, but Mil lost.
    Overall in the contest, I ended up going 5-4 and winning +475. The contest lets you bet from $500 to $100 on a game. I just bet everything at $500. I was thinking to maybe lower my bets on the games that I am not really confident in. We'll see.


    I did the early game, Minn/Atl
    The results of the matchups was all green. I had to use Allard's career numbers. Both SP has high BAA and HH%.
    I think I'll take a chance and take Minn+140 and the O10.


    Be back with the Rest.

  8. #43
    Aunty808
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    Was/Sea Game

    I did the matchups for this game and the results were the same as the Dodger/Rockies game yesterday.

    Corbin is one of the SP that I like to hit against. His numbers, .309BAA, EV90.9%/HH%46.7% and fantasy rating of 301. He's right behind Weaver at 323 and Freeland 384. Will do those two and a couple of other next.

    Having all Xtreme9's and 10's says Seattle should win the game. Gilbert won his last game, he's won 2 games in a row before so that doesn't bother me. What does bother me is Corbin had a very bad game (3 fantasy points) he last pitched. He's not an Ace SP but he is capable of pitching a seven inning, three hit, two run game.....and that usually happen when you least expect it. Seattle is -275 in the contest with the O/U at 8'.
    What to do....take the U8' and pray? The bullpens are so bad....except yesterday, when I took the over in the LAD/COL game.

  9. #44
    Aunty808
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    June 28 More Games

    June 28 More Games

    Gonna try and be short to get this posted before the games start.


    Cinn/Balt
    The results for both lineups are about equal, lots of greens. Both SP's had bad games the last time they pitched.
    Cinn will be trying to win their 9th straight road game, and looking at the matchup scores, in my opinion, they have a chance to win the game.
    Weaver has won the last 5 games he started. Gibson is in a mini-slump, giving up 8 runs in the last nine innings, in his last two starts.
    Hope he stays in his slump for one more game. I'm gonna take Cinn+145 and O9' in the contest.


    Hou/Stl
    Just take Houston. Javier probably had his worse game ever the last time he pitched. Only got a fantasy score of -2. That's really bad and I think he'll bounce back in this game.
    Hou+105 for me.


    Det/Tex
    Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
    Detroit is telling me to take them in the contest. All positive scores! Last time I did, they lost.
    The results favor Texas, even though Detroit has all positive scores. Texas faces Wentz and after today, the only thing that will save him from getting shipped to the BP is there's nobody else to take his place. He's in for a long day. Texas found their swagger again yesterday, more of the same today.
    Tex-224 and O9'.


    Gonna look at two more games now, be back later.

    BTW After I posted the Wash game, I went to make my contest pick for the UNDER but was too late. The game started......I win but still lose...lol.

  10. #45
    Aunty808
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    Late Games

    I just did the writeup, which wasn't much but I don't know where the h*ll it went. My internet went stupid on me.

    Anyways, real quick. I took the two dogs strickly on what the matchup scoring results were.

    I'll explain later. Game is going to start.

    Upset special!

  11. #46
    Aunty808
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    Recap June 28 Wed

    I think I really have to stop 'capping and watching these games on my days off. I am either going to end up with an ulcer or a broken laptop. It's a good thing I have a terrific remote tech. He lives in San Diego and I asked him to look for me another laptop because I didn't want to be without one during the baseball season should this one goes kaput on me. So he shipped one to me and then synched the two and everything on this one is on the new one!

    I should stop doing games that do not meet the criteria I set this season. It just seems like a waste of my time and they end up losing ( as in the Minn/Atl game). So from now if the games don't qualify, I won't include them in the daily posts.


    And another thing, about the two dogs I said to take, Colorado and Arizona? Without even reading previews or looking at the SP's records, just looking at the matchup results, I knew the play was the dog. It's hard to explain because I cannot show you all my work. Everything is done in a notebook and the matchups are all color coded.
    What I can tell you all is, I've noticed a pattern when I color code the matchups. That certain pattern tells me the play is on the dog.


    I saw it when I did the Wash/Sea game. I wanted to bet Wash but by the time I finished posting, the game had already started. And I also noticed that those games tends to go under the total. Well, Colorado's game flew over the total, but the Arizona game stayed under, as did the Wash game. When I see that pattern, I will post it as an Upset Special. No capping, just going by the results (pattern) of the matchup scoring.


    Contest picks went 5-3 and won $1525 fake money. I would have been 5-1 if I didn't take the Minn and O10 in the early game. Live and learn. And I would've, could've, should've been 6-0, but no, with the score at 2-1 in the 9th, 2 outs, BP gives up 2 runs for a final score of TB 3-2. Oh the agony of defeat.....oh well.


    And speaking of bullpens, I should thank them for letting Houston win. Geez, Javier had another bad hair day. And then there's the Cinn/Balt game......it ain't over till it's over. I thought I had the game and the Over in the bag......then came the eighth inning and the bullpen.......thank you Jesus for letting Cincy finally win with way more runs than we needed.


    And then there was the Texas game. Detroit tried to sucker me into taking them again, I didn't bite this time.....


    My survivor pick won, Texas O9', streak at 3.
    Took Seager and Doyle for my BTS picks , streak at 2.
    The good news is I won $1525 in the contest.
    The bad news is I am still -$12125 in the contest. That's because I just kept the same account that I used all these years, and for all those years, I did not know squat about baseball, strickly guesswork. Let's see if I can dig my way out of this hole. The leader is at +$25780.


    Tomorrow is a travel day.....
    I see two games that qualify tomorrow, SD/Pitt and Mil/NYM
    SD/Pitt is an early game. Never play the over in these early ( 6:30am HST) games. They tend to stay under the total.

    Goodnite, sleep tight, don't let the bedbugs bite!
    Be back tomorrow.

  12. #47
    Aunty808
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    Upset Alert! SD/Pitt

    Pirates sweep the Padres.

    For BTS, I am watching a certain matchup scoring result. Awhile back, I said I was gonna keep an eye out on this kid, Perkins. His numbers said no way he was going to hit the ball. He did.

    Today for the Pirates, there's five players with the same matchup scoring. I've been tracking these players for a few days and the results are better than the Home Run List. Lots of Rookies in the lineup.
    Davis S-8
    Gonzales Xtreme-10
    Bae S-6
    Triolo Xtreme-10
    Delay S-7

    Doyle from Rockies had the same scoring yesterday and I took him as one of my hitters.
    I don't know if I'll use any of the above today but thinking about it.

    Taking Pitt+170 and UN8' in contest.

    Be back later

  13. #48
    Aunty808
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    Upset Alert! TB/ARIZ

    I just did the game, not because it qualified, but because my survivor contest had this game as one of the picks. Another reason was because both SP's BAA was really high. Then I read a preview and it said that Littell was only the opener and Chirinos was gonna do the bulk-relief role.
    So I did the matchups for both pitchers, Littell and Chirinos and Tampa had the same pattern as the others to qualify as an Upset Alert game. Not that big of an upset rhough as Tampa is listed as a +105 dog.

  14. #49
    Aunty808
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    Quote Originally Posted by Optional View Post
    Your posts are appreciated and definitely are being read from the view stats of this thread.
    And I really appreciate you all letting me do my thing (amateur capping) here. I won't post my record as I don't keep track of it except in my notebook with all my chicken scratch...lol... and by using the W/L record in my free online contest. I must say, in the last two days, I have really gotten more organized and my matchup scoring is easier to read and that's how I can spot certain patterns (usually winning ones). Of course no one is 100% correct, and you know that thing called regression. I hope it doesn't seek me out until the last week of the regular season, and then come the playoffs, we'll be back to winning!
    I'm from Hawaii and we have a thing called the "Aloha Spirit", similar to what the southerners call "Southern Hospitality". We wish the best to all. If what I write/posts helps the members here win real money, I'm happy for them. But, I will repeat myself, please do your own homework too because this is just a hobby for me, something that I love doing to help me win my contests that I enter.

    Good luck to all and thanks for stopping by!

  15. #50
    Aunty808
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    Upset Alert! Mil/NYM

    Maybe today is one of the two days that the dogs win S/U cause here's another one.

    I just took Mil+167 in my contest. Same pattern as the other games today. No research, just going with what the pattern says. Dog wins.

    And on a side note, I found that kid, Perkins. He plays for the Brewers. I'm gonna play with fire and take him as my BTS pick for today. He scored an Xtreme-10!! That's a BIG NEGATVE for the hitter, the worse score you can get. It's okay if I lose cause my streak is only at 2 and I am just testing out all kinds of angles before the All Star break and will really buckle down when the games resumes after the break.

  16. #51
    Aunty808
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    Recap of June 29 games

    My broom is really getting a workout these days!

    The three underdogs all won S/U and two of the three games stayed UNDER the total. The SD/Pitt game had a total of 8' and the final score ended at 9. Close. So I will repeat it here, when I post these Upset Alert games, you always take the dog with the UNDER. They may not all win, but I think more will win than lose. If you are in doubt about any of these games staying UNDER the total after you do your homework, stay away from the total and just play the dog.

    I wanted to take Brewers game as my UNDER pick in my survivor contest but chickened out and didn't play anything. Streak stays at 3.

    My contest picks went 3-1, just losing the total in the SD/Pitt game. I won +$1660 in fake money. After today's winnings, I am at -$10,465. I am learning to pick and choose. It's nice to see a +835 taking a dog instead of a -$835 taking a favorite. I can lose, but still win some $$$ with taking dogs. The leader is at +$26,180. He better watch out...here I come!

    Note: I use the term fake money after my contest wins, not to tease, but to let any new readers know that I do not bet real money. For those who have been following from the beginning, you know this already. But most times, people pop into a thread with alot of views and just skim over the posts, not really reading everything. So, if using that term offends anyone, I apologize, that's not my intent.

    I did take that kid, Perkins, and he got a hit! The BTS contest had him getting a 59% chance of getting a hit. I usually try to find someone in the mid sixty to low seventy range. Streak at 3.

    Be back later.

  17. #52
    Aunty808
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    Upset Alert! Clev/Cubs

    I am trying to educate myself on odds and why they change. For those of you who are knowledgeable about odds and why they move, maybe this bit of info will help you out.

    When I go through the daily schedule, I use a fantasy site to get the game time, odds and weather. So for today's game, the site had Clev+136. I just put my pick in at the contest site and it was Clev+170. The O/U remained at 8'.

    Such a big jump......I'm still learning.

    You all know the drill
    Clev/UNDER

    Be back later.

  18. #53
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    Upset Alert! Wash/Phil

    I really don't pay attention to how may views this thread has, but what I came to post this, it had 4711 views.
    7-11......must be a good sign.

    I hope my Method of scoring these game isn't broken because here's another one.
    Same drill.
    I got Wash+155 and U9'.

    Fantasy site had it at +148 and O/U9 this morning when I went to get my stats.

    Be careful, use caution! We can't win them all, can we?

    I hope Mr. Universe doesn't read this thread....he might send the hit man named Regression to even things out!!

    While I'm here, the SD/Cinn game looks like an OVER game. I took the O11 in the contest.
    THIS IS NOT AN UPSET ALERT GAME!

    Be back later.

  19. #54
    Aunty808
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aunty808 View Post
    I am trying to educate myself on odds and why they change. For those of you who are knowledgeable about odds and why they move, maybe this bit of info will help you out.

    When I go through the daily schedule, I use a fantasy site to get the game time, odds and weather. So for today's game, the site had Clev+136. I just put my pick in at the contest site and it was Clev+170. The O/U remained at 8'.

    Such a big jump......I'm still learning.

    I am guessing that the big jump in the odds means "listen up folks, every Tom, Dick and Harry is betting the Cubs. How about we jack up the odds and sucker in more bets on Clev". So when I see that again, I will see a big red flag waving, don't do it! Pass on the game.

    To sum it up,
    Cubs opened at fantasy site at -160, moved to -200.
    =books have alot of bets on Cubs and up the odds.

    Clev opened at fantasy site at +136, moved to +170.
    = the books need your money to help pay if Cubs win so made the odds more attractive and sucker you in.

    I'm still learning......

  20. #55
    Goodtimemafiaz
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    Great write up. Wish I would of tail yesterday. Can u post all your final card for today.

  21. #56
    Aunty808
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    Det/Col game

    Last game for today.

    I did this matchup because Gomber qualified, high BAA (.304), high HH% (46.4%) and low rating of 383. Best rated pitcher today by comparison is Tampa Bay's SP McClanahan with a rating of 12.

    I also wanted to practice something called recency bias.
    Yesterday Detroit beat Texas 8-5. Colorado got their butts kicked by the Dodgers 14-3.

    If I was going to bet this game (using recency bias), I would bet on Detroit cause they just beat a good team. On the other hand, Colorado just got whipped, so no way do I want to bet them.

    And another thing in my favor betting on Detroit is Gomber, a not so good pitcher.

    The matchup scoring says Detroit should beat up on Colorado. They have all positive scores ranging from Xtreme10 to M+5. Colorado's scores are half positives and half negatives.
    I'm going to bet Colorado+100 in the contest. We'll see what happens.

    BTW, earlier I said I was going to bet SD's game O11, but when I went there just now, I saw Wash+155 and U9', but no O/11 in the SD/Cinn game. I don't know what happened to my bet! Lucky me cause there's no scoring in that game.....and I believe the Wash game did not qualify as a target game and that's why I didn't post it here......cause those usually lose.

    Be back tomorrow.

    EDIT: My bad, I did post the Wash/Phil game. I shouldn't have, because neither SP qualified. .
    Last edited by Aunty808; 06-30-23 at 07:16 PM.

  22. #57
    Aunty808
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    Recap June 30

    In hindsight, the warning flag was there. That was the first time a pattern game that qualified as an Upset Alert game had the odds drastically changed from opening to almost game time. That's why I asked about the odds movement.

    After reading about the subject, I kinda got the why they move like they do.
    Also, Cubs lost like 4 in a row, a good reason to give pause and give the game a second look. And with that knowledge, in hindsight, also Clev's matchup scoring fit the pattern, Cubs matchup scoring said they were gonna give Clev a dirty lickin's, which they did.

    I am trying to keep things simple in 'capping these games, but, there's so much more to learn and apply to my matchup scores, and maybe by doing so, hopefully, will produce more winners. I'm not happy about losing the game, but I am thankful for the learning experience. When the Red flags fly......do more research or pass on the game. You live, you learn.

    As for the confusion on the Wash/Phil game, I just went over today's posts and remembered why I did the matchup for that game. The two SP's had ratings of 175 (Sanchez) and 148 (Gray). Their BAA hovered slightly below league average. HH% was close to league average too.

    What also caught my eye was Wash+148. I wanted to see what the matchup scoring would be like because we had a couple of games with similar odds, around +150 to +170. Washington did fall into the same pattern, dog winning, and that's why I posted that game. And I guess the 4711 views did bring us good luck!


    So for today, ......wait, we must thank the bullpens again for doing their jobs and getting us that OVER in the SD/Cinn game...thank you! thank you! thank you!!
    I went to work kissing that OV11 bet goodbye....only for some reason, I didn't hit the submit button cause it wasn't listed in my contest as one of my picks. And then, coming home from work and seeing the final score! What the heck happened!....oh yeah, bullpens! I forgot about how bad they were!


    So again, like the other day, I won but still lost cause I didn't get the pick in.

    We won the good luck 711 game (Wash and the UN9' bets). Hey, I also tried that recency bias thing and it worked!! Colorado won! Yippee for me....I took them as my suvivor pick and now have a streak of 4. That's the good news, the bad news is I took Seager and Duran in the BTS contest and Duran didn't earn his paycheck today, didn't do squat.

    Final tally
    Contest picks went 3-2. Lost Clev and OV, won Wash and UN and Colorado. Ended up with +725 fake money. Slowly climbing out of my hole.....which now stands at -$9740 fake money . The leader won a bunch of games and now has a grand total of +30,930.
    Won survivor, now at 4.
    Lost BTS, nada, zero, 0.

    Be back tomorrow.

  23. #58
    Aunty808
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    July 1 games

    What happened?

    I just read the first page of this thread and the reason I started it was to find/list players for the BTS contest. How did I get side-tracked into capping games? Seems like for the last few days, I've been posting more Upset Alert games instead of who's gonna be hitting the ball for my BTS contest.

    My daughter always tells me to think outside the box, be open to everything. She says sometimes people with tunnel vision, people who focus on only one thing, won't see the whole picture of what they are looking at.

    I guess that is what happened here. I noticed the pattern where the matchup scoring lead to the underdogs winning and now instead of only focusing on finding my hitter, I'm more inclined to watch out for that pattern. Smart kid, huh? Works two ways, parents teach kids, kids teach parents!

    I just went over the schedule for today, got my data I needed and noticed there aren't as many target games as when I first started using this "system/method" to do the matchup scoring. The only games that qualified for today the CWS/Oak and the SD/Cinn games. So I will do some games with teams in the +125 and up to see if I can find any dogs to win. Time permitting, using the opening lines from my fantasy site, these are the games I will look at.

    +139Bos@Tor*
    +174Wash@Phil
    +127SF@NYM
    +148Mia@Atl
    LAD/@KC+190*
    +118Clev@Cubs*

    *Games listed as Likely/Possible Delay because of weather.

    Off to work I go...be back later.

  24. #59
    Aunty808
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    SD/Cinn game

    My target pitcher in this game is Williamson. The Padres matchup scoring is saying they will give Williamson a run for his money. Facing Wacha, the Padres "Ace", Cinn has only Friedl with a positive L+1 score. Everybody else scored negative. Pattern says dog win.
    Cinn+140 in contest.

    Be careful, San Diego is on a long losing streak.

  25. #60
    Aunty808
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    I hear you.

    I forgot to mention, I do hear all the screaming and yelling "Aunty!! These picks are doing us no go if you keep posting right before the game starts!! You gotta give us more time!!". I apologize and believe me I know the feeling...I've been there. It's always in the back of my mind and I will definitely try my best to post way before the games start going foward.

    I am a little more organized so that should help alot

    Be back later.

  26. #61
    Aunty808
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    Bos/Tor game

    I can't call this an Upset Alert game because the pattern favors the favorite and not the underdog. This scoring matchup is one that I have to keep an eye on. It's usually the other way in scoring. Red Sox matchup scoring says they are supposed to hit Crawford hard with all the Xtreme10 scores.

    I'll take Bos+150 with all the Xtreme10 scores in their favor. Then I'll pray.......you do know that it's Canada Day in Toronto, right? History is on Red Sox side from what I read in the preview. We'll see.

  27. #62
    Aunty808
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    Wash/Phil game

    No clear picture, very blurry.....

    Gore had a real good game last time he pitched, Wheeler the opposite. Wheeler rated a 5, Gore an 85. High rated pitchers rarely have two bad games in a row, but it sometimes happen. Wash beat up on him last time they met on June 2, 3.2 innings, eight hits and 7 runs. Matchup scoring leans toward Wash slightly, but.....
    Pass on this game. I want to see how many runs will be scored in this game.

  28. #63
    Aunty808
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    Mia/Atl game

    Mirror image of the Bos/Tor game.
    Thinking of taking Atl-165. Perez just had a "GEM" game, highest fantasy score this season.
    Just took Atl-165 and will see if the game goes OVER.

  29. #64
    teecee
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    Sorry I showed up late. Braves striking early and often again.

  30. #65
    Aunty808
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    EDIT: Oops, this is directed to the previous poster teecee.....


    I don't want to come off sounding rude, but please read this copy/paste from a previous post.

    #39 Posted on June 26
    NOTE: I just want to thank the forum for letting me post here. I appreciate everybody stopping by and reading. I'm very happy noone replies to this thread. Keeps it free from clutter and easier for me to go back to read. Over the years, I've tried posting at other sites, but too many egomaniacs chased me away. It's nice here. Again, thanks for letting me post in my little space here.

    I appreciate you taking an interest in this thread, but it's basically a
    READ only thread. I basically want to talk to myself and to all the members who stop by to READ. They understand what I am using this thread for, tracking, analysing and making notes to myself on how to improve my status in capping. I don't want to be labeled an amateur forever, I want to become a professional capper...yeah, right....LOL!

    Anyway, I apologize to you if I come out sounding rude, but I need to send a clear message to all who come and visit this thread. Feel free to use what you want from this thread to help you with your bets, just remember I bet with fake money, your money is real. So, please, stop by and visit if you like, but please....everyone, no comments, ok?
    Thanks in advance,
    your Amateur Hour capper ....Aunty.....who's still learning the ropes....



  31. #66
    Aunty808
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    Rest of the games: NADA

    Sometimes life gets in my way during baseball season. I told everybody, gave them the heads up....look,"it's baseball season! don't bother me! leave me alone! I'm anti-social until after the World Series!". People don't listen.
    Like yesterday, my sister. That's why I got confused about the Wash/Phil game. That's when she decided to drop off my stuff and talk talk talk talk talk talk ......today it's my landlord turn. Staying for the weekend in their beach house in back of my rental.....after giving her the heads up....."I'll pop out to say hi, but you it's baseball season, right?"....nope....talk talk talk talk talk talk talk.
    It really ticks me off, people are so selfish, like I don't give a rats behind about your trip to Las Vegas! my frickin' baseball games are starting, hello? am I talking to the wall?.geez......sorry for the rant. Rant over.
    Now the games have started and I didn't have the chance to do the matchups.....

    So, because I am in a foul mood and not focused, I'm calling it a day. If I do shake off this god-awful mood I'm in right now, I'll see if I can do the late games. Something...I''ll try.


    If not later, be back tomorrow.

  32. #67
    Aunty808
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    Recap July 1

    Couldn't do all of the games I wanted to do, couldn't get focused on the games after the interruption.
    I've found that if I do a quick check of the SP's game log and reading the previews for little tidbits of information on the two teams, after looking at the matchup scoring, I feel that I can give a better opinion on the game.
    Made the right choices in Boston and Atlanta today. I said to be careful with the Cinn game because, like I said in the little writeup, SD was on a long losing streak and their matchup scoring said they were gonna whip Williamson. I didn't take the UNDER in that game cause both bullpens are really bad...look what happened yesterday.

    Final Tally
    Contest picks went 2-1, winning $750 (fake money). Slowly digging out of my hole which now stands at -$8990 (fake money).
    Didn't play suvivor, streak remains at 4.
    Benson got his hit, DeLaCruz didn't. Streak at 0.

    Gonna get a jump on tomorrow and get the numbers for the games now. I kinda glanced at the schedule and saw a couple of SP that I target. Alot of early games.

    Be back tomorrow.

  33. #68
    Aunty808
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    Minn/Balt game

    Scoring looks pretty even, slight lean to Balt. Minn trying to sweep the series, has won the season series every year since 2017. My target pitcher in this game is Irvin, rated 117 vs Gray 35. Nothing stands out in this game.
    Pass on the game.

  34. #69
    Aunty808
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    Wash/Phil game

    Wash is a big underdog in this matchup. Looking at the matchup scoring tells me to take a chance and pick them.I checked the matchup at baseballsavant and both pitchers, Suarez .306/.486/.347 vs Wash, and Williams .319/.673/.444 vs Phil.

    Last time they played on June 4th, Phil won the game 11-3.

    You ever watch a game and the play by play guy says, blah blah blah has NEVER hit a homerun against .....and then boom! the guy hits a homerun? When reading the preview I got the same feeling, Wash has never won 3 series in a row since '21, Williams is 0-3 in 7 career appearances (5 starts) vs Phil, Suarez, who by the way just scored his highest fantasy points this season, is 6-0 in 12 appearances (5 starts), Phil is 26-4 in the last 30 games vs Wash.....all that with the fact that Philly just kicked Wash's butt yesterday, remember recency bias? I bet alot more people are going to jump on Philly today. Not me, looking at the matchup scoring results, I think Wash has a pretty good chance to win today.

    I was just going to hit the submit button, but the odds changed again. Wash was +205 at the fantasy site last night. This morning at the contest it was +210. Now it's +220. Phil was -249 last night, -250 this morning and now sits at -270.
    Ok, so this sounds familiar.....I questioned the odds movement on another game....same thing? Phil got more bets so they want me to take Wash with the better odds to get me to pick them cause Philly wins?

    Oh,oh....be careful.
    I'm sticking to my pick Wash +220.....and pray.

  35. #70
    Aunty808
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    Bos/Tor game

    Almost called it an Upset Alert game, but Toronto didn't score all high positives, although entire lineup did score positive. Boston, according to the matchup scoring, does fit the underdog wins pattern.
    Game about to start.
    Taking Bos+170 in contest.

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