Beating the Bracket and Making $$$

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  • Oscar
    SBR High Roller
    • 02-22-08
    • 154

    #1
    Beating the Bracket and Making $$$
    I've had some success over the years wagering March brackets by focusing on the close games (i.e., 7-10, 6-11 and 8-9 matchups). I only use about 5 pieces of data for these games. Here are my bets/leans (astericked): Note: using WSEX lines from early this morning - if they have changed, sorry.

    **KENT ST -2.0
    UNLV +2.0

    KANSAS ST +2.5
    **USC -2.5

    KENTUCKY +4.5
    **MARQUETTE -4.5

    TEXAS A&M -2.0
    **BYU +2.0 Bigbet

    ARIZONA +2.0
    **WEST VIRGINIA -2.0

    **SOUTH BAMA +4.5
    BUTLER -4.5

    ARKANSAS +1.5
    **INDIANA -1.5

    OREGON +2.5
    **MISS ST -2.5 Bigbet

    **ST. JOSEPHS +1.5
    OKLAHOMA -1.5

    DAVIDSON -2.0
    **GONZAGA +2.0

    **BAYLOR +3.0
    PURDUE -3.0


    Oscar
  • andyman009
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 02-21-08
    • 662

    #2
    u really think the zags are gonna beat davidson??
    Comment
    • LT Profits
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 10-27-06
      • 90963

      #3
      I like Gonzaga myself andy. I would have liked Davidson if they were underdogs, but as small favorites, you can't ignore the fact that they do not have a quality non-conference win. Yes they played some great teams tough in December, but they didn't actually WIN any of those games. I think that St. Mary's and San Diego are both better than any team that Davidson has beaten, and Gonzaga has three wins over those two teams combined.
      Comment
      • Louisvillekid1
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-17-07
        • 52143

        #4
        Agree w/ everyone except Gonzaga and BYU
        Comment
        • andyman009
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 02-21-08
          • 662

          #5
          purdue and butler win
          Comment
          • andyman009
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 02-21-08
            • 662

            #6
            oh and i have davidson making it to the elite 8 LT
            Comment
            • Oscar
              SBR High Roller
              • 02-22-08
              • 154

              #7
              Originally posted by andyman009
              u really think the zags are gonna beat davidson??

              Andy - funny you mention that game, because my first lean was Davidson..the more I looked at it, the more I liked the 2points; zags will have to overcome cross-country trip to what's essentially a home game for favorite - be interesting to see the line move on this one
              Comment
              • TPowell
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 02-21-08
                • 18842

                #8
                Baylor-Purdue is who actually wants to play ball and I think it will be Purdue but Baylor has senior leadership and Purdue is so young
                Comment
                • LT Profits
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 10-27-06
                  • 90963

                  #9
                  Originally posted by TPowell
                  Baylor-Purdue is who actually wants to play ball and I think it will be Purdue but Baylor has senior leadership and Purdue is so young
                  Plus the Big 12 pisses on the Big Ten this year.
                  Comment
                  • Wassymac
                    SBR MVP
                    • 02-22-06
                    • 1090

                    #10
                    Originally posted by LT Profits
                    Plus the Big 12 pisses on the Big Ten this year.
                    Except for this particular matchup. Baylor will enjoy the atmosphere and Purdue will move on.
                    Comment
                    • BuddyBear
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 08-10-05
                      • 7233

                      #11
                      I am starting to like Gonzaga myself.... I consider both Gonzaga/Davidson two bet on teams so it was disappointing to see them matched up against one another.

                      They are about even but Davidson plays in a pitiful conference (not that the WCC is better but they do have 3 tournament teams). I am a little surprised Gonzaga did not open as the fav but I figured money would come in on Davidson given the site of this match up. Even with that, I still think Gonzaga is the better team and with more experience as well.
                      Comment
                      • BuddyBear
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 08-10-05
                        • 7233

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Wassymac
                        Except for this particular matchup. Baylor will enjoy the atmosphere and Purdue will move on.

                        We'll have to see about this. I really think Baylor is the right side to this game.
                        Comment
                        • Wassymac
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-22-06
                          • 1090

                          #13
                          Originally posted by BuddyBear
                          We'll have to see about this. I really think Baylor is the right side to this game.
                          They could be and their quick guards will definitely present a matchup problem but I'll take my chances that Purdue's on the ball pressure slows them down enough to get the W. I think Baylor's D will be a breathe of fresh air for Purdue.

                          At any rate I think it's an interesting matchup and should be a fun one to watch.
                          Comment
                          • TPowell
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 02-21-08
                            • 18842

                            #14
                            I feel ya Oscar, but I have Purdue over Baylor. I've got the rest of the teams you have straight up
                            Comment
                            • stingyrivers
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-15-08
                              • 1240

                              #15
                              would be helpful to us oscar if you included what the 5 pieces of data are that you consider?
                              Comment
                              • TPowell
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 02-21-08
                                • 18842

                                #16
                                yeah that would be good to know since we have basically the same ideas
                                Comment
                                • Ivan77
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 10-27-07
                                  • 219

                                  #17
                                  its real easy to get carried away and bet too many games on thursday and friday, i've always made money betting like 3 games a day for the big dance! Here are 3 great plays for thursday..
                                  West Virginia-2.5
                                  Oral Roberts + 10
                                  UNLV +1.5

                                  Fridays 3 plays...
                                  Arkansas +1
                                  South Alabama +5
                                  Davidson-2
                                  Comment
                                  • Wassymac
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-22-06
                                    • 1090

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by GrubbyOne
                                    I'm an iddiot but surprised even myself that I tried this.
                                    Comment
                                    • Oscar
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 02-22-08
                                      • 154

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Ivan77
                                      its real easy to get carried away and bet too many games on thursday and friday,
                                      agree completely
                                      Comment
                                      • Oscar
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 02-22-08
                                        • 154

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by TPowell
                                        I feel ya Oscar, but I have Purdue over Baylor. I've got the rest of the teams you have straight up
                                        I'm glad to be on the same side as you on these. Good luck !
                                        Comment
                                        • mofome
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 12-19-07
                                          • 13003

                                          #21
                                          nice stuff oscar, i look forward to seeing how you do!
                                          Comment
                                          • Oscar
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 02-22-08
                                            • 154

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by stingyrivers
                                            would be helpful to us oscar if you included what the 5 pieces of data are that you consider?
                                            Well, I guess it would be helpful if >60% of these hit! In general, though, I use a weighted system looking at rebound diff, asst/to, # sr. starters, & point diff, using "away" data only. Finally, but least importantly, I look at road power ranking.
                                            Comment
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