Santa Clara at Gonzaga

awhitejackson · 03-03-08, 09:53 PM

I just went with Santa Clara +14.5...The over does look good though

Whats that funny thing you were supposed to tell me ???

TPowell · 03-03-08, 09:58 PM

15 with Gonzaga at home? Is Gonzaga not a good play in this situation?

MoneySportsGuy · 03-03-08, 10:00 PM

Alright so I was listening to Jim Rome the other day and he was relaying a story that was circulating from West Virginia.

Apparently, a casting director was fired from whatever movie was being filmed because of something she did. According to the report, she told her staff to find deformed looking people, as she needed to find extras to depict typical West Virginia.

She continued by saying she needed to find inbred looking people and West Virginia has alot of them.

I jus couldnt believe that she would tell her staff to find inbred, deformed people, typcical of West VA.

Still havent looked for the article but apparently the locals in whatever town it was are not so happy about it and very pissedd off. Wondering if it made any news about it up there by you.

awhitejackson · 03-03-08, 10:01 PM

Yeah this is still one pick Im wavering on...Already put my bet in but I could always double up on the other side

MoneySportsGuy · 03-03-08, 10:01 PM

I have Zaga covering in a parlay, but I really like this over, just curious why its so low. I mean even if Zaga puts up 75 and SC puts 60 thats still 135, I mean geez even that is 6 points psat the over. Is somebody with high scoring average not playing or anything you guys know? I dont even know how many seniors they have but I would assume Zaga home game is going to have some scoring with it.

rake922 · 03-03-08, 10:02 PM

I think the over is the best play.... not wagering on this one though

awhitejackson · 03-03-08, 10:03 PM

I havent heard about it...but that is pretty funny..There are still some places with scary people in West Virginia thats for sure...

WestsidePete · 03-03-08, 10:07 PM

the total is low because SC gives up 61.2 and Zaga 63.9...

MoneySportsGuy · 03-03-08, 10:07 PM

Yeah right on awhite haha just thought it was a funny story and apparently the reason she got fired was because whatever town it was in caused such an uproar the locals demanded it as that is where film was being shot at. HAHA

MoneySportsGuy · 03-03-08, 10:08 PM

Westside, what do you think of the over under at 128.5?
I see what you mean about SC giving up that and I think Zaga plays great D at home but I see Zaga still getting 75-80 in this. What do you think?

WestsidePete · 03-03-08, 10:09 PM

SC conf games avg 57 pts first half
Zaga conf games avg 65 first half

with a first half of 59 I'm thinking the over is the play since Zaga is at home here...

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-08, 10:09 PM

Over is something like 11-1 in the last 12 meetings, but both teams have been stifling on D in their last 5, holding opponents under 40% and a shade under 60 ppg. Gonzaga also has the Big Monday trend - 4 of 5 played UNDER. And despite the gaudy final total in their first meeting, that game went 126 at the end of regulation. SC also hasn't cleared tonight's total in their last 5 road games. Real tough call here because I don't know if SC can score 60. If they get there, then I think Gonzaga gets enough for the over.....stil thinking.

MoneySportsGuy · 03-03-08, 10:12 PM

hmmm but what do you think Zaga will get? I still see them scoring their average at home and thats 77...even if they get 75 with SC getting 55 thats still beating the over by 1.5

WestsidePete · 03-03-08, 10:13 PM

Zaga home conf games they avg over 80...still looking

MoneySportsGuy · 03-03-08, 10:13 PM

Thanks for the post though Eagles, your a solid capper so going to think about this a bit more as value your opinion for sure.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-08, 10:15 PM

I think the Zags can get 70+, but my real concern is this game winds up something like 72-55 because SC can't score enough for an over. If the total was in the 130s, I'd be on the Under and a couple points lower and I'd take a shot at the over. It's a total middle ground for me at 128.

Quebb Diesel · 03-03-08, 10:17 PM

Originally posted by MoneySportsGuy

hmmm but what do you think Zaga will get? I still see them scoring their average at home and thats 77...even if they get 75 with SC getting 55 thats still beating the over by 1.5

when i do totals i like projecting what i think the fav will score and subtract the line and add the two together...a lot of times the line is very close to the actual score so say i think the zags will put up 74 i would assume the total would be around 74+59=133

WestsidePete · 03-03-08, 10:18 PM

they're figuring 59 1st h 70 sec h with a score around 72-57

WestsidePete · 03-03-08, 10:23 PM

both these teams have been shooting well lately and playing great defense...but SC is not as good obviously which lead me to believe Zaga will have more open looks and they are at home...so I think they make their shots...

MoneySportsGuy · 03-03-08, 10:24 PM

wait hold up what are you saying Quebb? You assume Zaga puts up 74 but how do you get 59? you just subtracting 15 as that is spread?

I did similiar thing but did 74-16 as its 15.5 for them to cover but still total is 132.

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-08, 10:24 PM

Really teetering toward the UNDER. Can we trust a SC team that only scored 58 vs. Pepperdine's swiss cheese D or just 66 vs. Loyola & SF? Look at their game vs. St.Mary's on the road - could be similar to this evening? 75-47 St.Mary's win.

MoneySportsGuy · 03-03-08, 10:26 PM

Originally posted by WestsidePete

they're figuring 59 1st h 70 sec h with a score around 72-57

thanks for finding that out Westside is there a way you calculate that? I mean I under the over/under 1st half set at 59 but how do you figure the 70 for 2nd half?

just by 128.5 - 59=69.5?

I am going to go with gut and say the over is going to hit past 60, which gives even greater chance Zaga knocks them down tonight. I can see this as 74-58 or even something like 80 52 so going with the OVER I think.

Quebb Diesel · 03-03-08, 10:26 PM

Originally posted by MoneySportsGuy

wait hold up what are you saying Quebb? You assume Zaga puts up 74 but how do you get 59? you just subtracting 15 as that is spread?

I did similiar thing but did 74-16 as its 15.5 for them to cover but still total is 132.

yeah i subtract the spread from what i project the fav to score as the dog's score and add both the scores together

WestsidePete · 03-03-08, 10:29 PM

Zaga doesn't blow this team out..so I see SC hanging in there...and I'm going with the idea that SC can score tonite

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-08, 10:29 PM

Originally posted by MoneySportsGuy

thanks for finding that out Westside is there a way you calculate that? I mean I under the over/under 1st half set at 59 but how do you figure the 70 for 2nd half?

just by 128.5 - 59=69.5?
:

Yeah that would be it. Books seem to really only adjust if the game is drastically slow or fast paced. Otherwise the half time line will be right around what the line for the game would be minus the first half line.

MoneySportsGuy · 03-03-08, 10:30 PM

This is getting tricky now.

Because just looking at recent opponents SC loses to San Diego at home by only 4 points.
SC wins at LMU by 20

Zaga beats LMU by 33 at home
Zaga wins by 4 on road with San Diego

As far as playing similiar opponents its somewhat even as Zaga beating LMU at home and SC beating LMU on road by 20

MoneySportsGuy · 03-03-08, 10:31 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Yeah that would be it. Books seem to really only adjust if the game is drastically slow or fast paced. Otherwise the half time line will be right around what the line for the game would be minus the first half line.

Alright cool thanks Eagles for verifying that I figured that is how they did it but never confirmed it...

Quebb Diesel · 03-03-08, 10:32 PM

LMU is a joke of a team

WestsidePete · 03-03-08, 10:33 PM

yes...if they figure 59 1st h and 128.5 for the game...then you can assume the difference ....maybe a pt or two up or down off from 70...could actually be 72...the key is the first half...

MoneySportsGuy · 03-03-08, 10:33 PM

On another note, not sure what books you have but I did see the total opened at 128 and currently at 128.5 so just another thing to consider.

WestsidePete · 03-03-08, 10:35 PM

books are counting on this to be a slow game...

EaglesPhan36 · 03-03-08, 10:36 PM

I think I'm sticking to my gut and going with the Under at 128.5. I'm surely going to lose this one because I finally got back on track with my other college picks tonight.

WELCOME TO FANTASY ISLAND!

MoneySportsGuy · 03-03-08, 10:38 PM

Man Eagles I was hoping we would be on the same page haha because my gut tells me OVER

St. Andrew · 03-03-08, 10:38 PM

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Santa Clara's last 5 games when playing Gonzaga

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Santa Clara's last 5 games when playing on the road against Gonzaga

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Santa Clara's last 8 games on the road

The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Santa Clara's last 19 games