St. Mary's at Southern Illinois

[regularguy]

This game, on Tuesday, interests me. I thought I'd start a thread to get your thoughts.

St. Mary's is hot -- still undefeated -- with notable wins against Oregon, Drake, and Seton Hall. Before this last weekend, I was thinking that they had not proven themselves away from home, but on Saturday they pulled out a win on the road against a good San Diego State team [note: this was on a neutral court (thanks IMGV)]. They have not shown much weakness, and their stats reflect that.

On the other hand, Southern Illinois has been a bit disappointing. They have lost big in three in a row, to USC (at home), Indiana (at home), and Charlotte (away). Those are good teams the Salukis have lost to, but the thing is, they have not even been able to stay close in those. And, their stats are pretty mediocre.

St. Mary's is scoring 16 points more than their opponents; Southern Illinois is scoring 0.5 more than their opponents. St. Mary's is shooting better from the field than the Salukis (47.9% to 40%) and also is hitting more 3-pointers (8.6 v. 5.2 per game). In their last game, the Salukis shot a terrible 32.3% from the field and 58.8% from the free throw line. Also, St. Mary's is rebounding much better than Southern Illinois (35.7 v. 26.5 per game).

I'll wait for the line, before making my pick, but this, I think, is a game to look at pretty closely, with the Salukis struggling and the Gaels on one of their best starts ever.

[EaglesPhan36]

Tough call because St.Mary's hasn't played a true road game yet. SIU has been favored by 4 in each of their last 3 games. St.Mary's was only a two point dog at home vs. Oregon. I think the Gaels should probably be a 1-2 pt fave here. I think the line will likely be around a pick 'em or slight edge to SIU to get more people to bet on St.Mary's. Not sure about a side, but POUND the under for SIU at home. Their last 3 haven't eclipsed 115. If the total is in the upper 120s or higher, I really like that.

[bigboydan]

St. Mary's might be extremely hot right now which is probably the only reason they made the top 25 this week. However Southern Illinois might be only 3-3, but look at the teams they lost too. I mean SUI is the much more superior squad that has depth, and Faulkner will probably have the game of his life based on the matchup factor.

[LT Profits]

Southern Illinois -3.

Looks like nice value for the Gaels backers.

[rjt721]

To me, SIU has been the biggest disappointment in the country to this point. The really miss Jamaal Tatum, who hit every big shot for them last year, as well as Tony Young's defense. They had just enough scoring last year to get by, largely because of the caliber of defense they played, but the Salukis have a harder time putting points on the board this year, and the defense has slipped a bit. Matt Shaw's not scoring enough and Mullins isn't very aggressive offensively, so if Falker doesn't have a big game inside this team really struggles. That being said, I'm not at all sold on St. Mary's as a top 25 team, so I'll probably be passing on this game, instead watching with interest to see if SIU can still be the team I (and many others) thought they would be this season.

[pags11]

I can't touch this game...

[pavyracer]

As a Saluki alumni I can tell you that the arena is a very loud place to be and I'm not sure the Gaels are used to play in hostile crowds. I will not bet against the Salukis home. That being said I wouldn't also bet for them right now.

[imgv94]

St.Mary played SDST at a neutral site.

[onlooker]

I am going to take a shot with St.Mary's on the money line.

[tmac4448]

This is a tough game to call, but SIU has lost 3 straight and is playing with no confidence. While on the other hand St. Marys is undefeated and have beaten some quality opponents. SIU cannot shoot worth anything so the only way they score is on the inside. Last week they did a pretty good job against Spain (plays for SDST), he is a pretty good inside player. They also would like some revenge for the loss last year so I will go with St. Marys on the money line.

[Ballin]

I can't bet this game. I can't bet a So Illinois team that has little confidence shooting the ball and i can't bet a St. Mary's team that hasn't played a game away from the West Coast and on someone elses home court. Having to play in Carbondale as your first "true" road game is no easy task.

[jimbojpc]

Interesting play st. Marys on the road this is a no play at -4 GL

[The HG]

Yes very interesting game, this could easily be a S Ill blowout for all the reasons people have mentioned here - I wouldn't at all be surprised if the late money comes in on S Ill, if it went to 3.5 early on, then 4.5 late.

No bet for me, but it will be interesting to see how it turns out.

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't see this as anything but a close game. St.Mary's out to prove they deserve their ranking. SIU trying to get their season back on track. Nip & tuck ... taking the generous +4.5 for me at this point. Total at 126. Wish that was a few points higher, but I still think under is the way to go.

[Illusion]

Yes very interesting game, this could easily be a S Ill blowout for all the reasons people have mentioned here - I wouldn't at all be surprised if the late money comes in on S Ill, if it went to 3.5 early on, then 4.5 late.

No bet for me, but it will be interesting to see how it turns out.

It's currently 4.5 at the greek. I went ahead and took my chances with SIU for a few units.

[perhapsnot]

I have been waiting for this one, and was concerned the SM ranking might push the spread to pickem.....but I'm happily taking the +4.5.
You/I can lose a lot of money by betting a team based on pre-season expectations rather than how they are currently playing.
So.Ill losses did come to 3 good schools, but they got smoked in those games. I've also put a little on SM to win.

[mshanedub420]

St Mary's +165 is too good to pass up. This game is a pick. Long run you will win.