Ballin's NCAA BBall for Nov 29

tab · 11-29-07, 02:57 AM

I am with you on Oregon

Originally posted by Ballin

Registered my 1st loss with NC State as they played about as bad as they could in the 1st half before settling down and playing like I thought they would the entire game. I rarely play more than 1 or 2 games a day but after seeing the lines for Thursday, I have 3 games that I really like.

3-1 YTD

NC Charlotte +5.5

Reason why: Wake Forest is still very unproven as they have played Fairfield, NC Central, Winston-Salem at home and a bad Iowa team on the road. Meanwhile, NC Charlotte already has beaten a good Appalachian St at home and held their own in Virgin Islands Tourny. Charlotte's Leemire Goldwire will be the best player on the court. I'll take the underdog home team who actually has played some good teams this year instead of scheduling cupcakes on their home floor.

St. Joes pk

Reason why: Gonzaga is going to get better as the year progresses especially when they get Josh Heytvelt back from injury. This is their 1st "true" road game as they played their last 3 games in the Great Alaska Shootout and the first 3 were on their home court. St.Joe's has already played 2 true road games and only once at home. St. Joe's has 4 players averaging double figures while shooting 50% from the field including 40% from behind the arc. Philly will be rocking after St. Joe's beats Gonzaga who just got done playing in Alaska and now has to travel to Pennsylvania to play this game.

I will be playing Oregon also but I see the line going down as it started out at Oregon -4 and is now at -2.5. I see this game going down to a pick or -1 so I'll wait til tomorrow to post this play.

I would have taken Oregon -5 but it is great the line is moving in our favor. Hopefuly we can get at -2 or less. I also like TUlane -5. Good luck at lets make lots of money.

tab · 11-29-07, 03:21 AM

Charlotte on the moneyline

Originally posted by tab

I would have taken Oregon -5 but it is great the line is moving in our favor. Hopefuly we can get at -2 or less. I also like TUlane -5. Good luck at lets make lots of money.

Your are right about Charlotte and I think they win outright on THursday. I am playing them on the ML myself. I was not impressed with Wake Forest's win against Iowa. Even though WAke won the game, I am not impressed with their style of play. Their defense is ok but wake's offense is horrendous. They will struggle tommorrow and lose the game.

Ballin · 11-29-07, 11:21 AM

Adding

Oregon -2

Reason why: I was hoping that this line would continue to go down but I think -2 is as low as I'll be able to get it. Anyways onto the game. To say Oregon can score with the best of any team in the country is an understatement. All 5 starters average double figure points with super 6th man Kamryon Brown closing in on double figures with his 8.8 PPG. Some will say that how can they beat Kansas St if they lost to St. Mary's on the road. If Bryce Taylor had played for Oregon, they would have won. Take away his 14 PPG and it is hard to replace. Taylor is back and Oregon is at full-strength again. Meanwhile, I feel Kansas St is extremely overrated. Although they are 5-1, the results have been less impressive. They lost to a decent George Mason team and barely hung on to beat Central Florida. Their game against Rider was much closer than the final score indicated. Right now, if you contain Michael Beasley (which Oregon is capable with Leunen and Catron), they can be beaten. If this game turns into a track meet, I give the advantage to Oregon as they have shown to be more balanced night in and out. One of these 2 teams will have 2 losses after tonight and it isn't going to be Oregon.

Akumae · 11-29-07, 11:28 AM

I'm taking the points with KANSAS STATE. Yesterday, I successfully played on Penn State. The Nittany Lions were returning home after having played rather poorly in their tournament. I felt that they were better than they had shown in the tournament and expected them to bounce back with a much better effort (and a victory) on their home floor. I feel much the same way about tonight's matchup as I feel that the Wildcats are significantly better than they have shown. I also feel that the Wildcats have something to prove and that they'll play with a chip on their shoulder for tonight's nationally televised game. Last season, the Wildcats became the first 10-6 finisher in Big 12 history to not receive a bid to the NCAA Tournament. Note that Texas Tech, which finished fifth in the conference, was chosen by the NCAA Selection Committee and that the Red Raiders had been crushed 66-45 by the Wildcats in the Big 12 Tournament. This year's team has a new coach in Frank Martin (Bob Huggins' top assistant), anxious for his first signature victory. Martin has inherited a solid team with one bigtime superstar. Rated by some as the top high school prospect in the country last year, Michael Beasley has certainly been living up to the hype. Beasley has a double-double in all six games this season and is averaging an extremely impressive 27.2 ppg and 15.5 rpg. The Ducks can score with the best of them. However, their defense has been shaky and they allowed a whopping 99 points to St. Mary's in losing their most recent road game. That loss dropped the Ducks to 5-9 ATS the last 14 times they were favored by four points or less. Conversely, the Wildcats are 12-6 ATS the last 18 times they were underdogs of four points or less. Look for Beasley and co. to improve on those stats as remain perfect on their home floor by scoring the minor upset.

Ballin · 11-29-07, 11:34 AM

BOL, last time we went heads up though the outcome wasn't so great for you. I do think K-State is extremely overrated and it'll be shown after tonights Oregon win. They do need David Hoskins and his 14.5 PPG from last year back before I consider them a legit top 25 team.

Akumae · 11-29-07, 04:01 PM

Love this game. Oregon is remembered for their big run last season, but Aaron Brooks is gone and that will kill them over the course of this season. Are they a good team, yes, but should they be a road favorite by three over an up and coming KState team that features maybe the best freshman in the country in Michael Beasley? I think not. KState fans have been clamoring for this season, and waiting to watch Walker and Beasley on the same court. This game will have everyone's attention throughout the state of Kansas. A statement game for the arrival of the Cats. A statement will be made in a big way.

'Cats take one of the first match-ups in the Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series.

Cougar Bait · 11-29-07, 04:03 PM

On Oregon as well, but have the other side of that St. Joe's game and think Gonzaga is a bit deeper. St. Joe's D is giving up a lot from long range too (37.7%). Also, Gonzaga's D has been stingy limiting opponents to 39% from the floor and 29% from outside the arc. It will be a good game though as I expect St. Joe's will have the edge in the rebounding category. GL!

Ballin · 11-29-07, 11:29 PM

Originally posted by Akumae

Love this game. Oregon is remembered for their big run last season, but Aaron Brooks is gone and that will kill them over the course of this season. Are they a good team, yes, but should they be a road favorite by three over an up and coming KState team that features maybe the best freshman in the country in Michael Beasley? I think not. KState fans have been clamoring for this season, and waiting to watch Walker and Beasley on the same court. This game will have everyone's attention throughout the state of Kansas. A statement game for the arrival of the Cats. A statement will be made in a big way.

'Cats take one of the first match-ups in the Big 12/Pac-10 Hardwood Series.

That's twice now you have come into my plays and stated you were on the opposite side. You are now 0-2 so you might want to keep your comments about my plays to yourself