Matt Fargo: Rebels -2½ vs Bulldogs

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  • SBRforum Staff
    Moderator
    • 07-31-06
    • 1306

    #1
    Matt Fargo: Rebels -2½ vs Bulldogs
    Rebels -2½ vs Bulldogs

    Game Time: 1/30/2007 7:00:00 PM
    By: Matt Fargo
    Gain expert insights from the leading professionals in sports betting. From NFL, NBA, NHL, to countless other sports, ProCappers has you covered.


    Magnolia State rivals square off in Oxford this evening when Mississippi hosts Mississippi State. Play Ole Miss at home.

    Mississippi is back home on Tuesday for an ESPN Super Tuesday game as it hosts hated rival Mississippi St.

    The Rebels are coming off a loss at Vanderbilt on Saturday as they nearly came back to win after a 16-point deficit. There are two things that really stick out in this matchup. The home/road dichotomy comes into play here as the home team is 17-2 in Mississippi games this season while the home team is 15-4 in Mississippi St. games. That combined record of 32-6 is enormous.

    Second, Mississippi is the SEC’s best when it comes to turnovers, ranking first in turnover margin at +3.6 and third in assist/turnover ratio at 1.17. The Rebels have been in single digits in turnovers in eight games and own a +0.30 margin in ratio. All of those numbers get better at home as the turnover margin jumps to +4.4 per game, the ratio goes to 1.23 and the ratio margin goes to +.046.

    The Bulldogs, who own an assist/turnover ratio of less than 1.00 on the season, are +3.0 in turnover margin on the road. The Rebels currently rank fifth in the SEC in free throw shooting at 69.3 percent. That figure is over six points better than last year’s mark of 63.0 percent and would be the highest since firing at a 72.6 percent clip in 2002-03. Mississippi seniors are leading the charge with Todd Abernethy at 83.8 percent, Bam Doyne at 80.6 percent and Clarence Sanders at 79.4 percent. The Bulldogs are hitting just 64.9 percent of their attempts including only 61.9 percent on the road.

    The Rebels are second in the SEC in offensive rebounds at 14.1 per game and its no coincidence that it is due to the return of Dwayne Curtis who is third in the conference in rebounding in his 13 games. Mississippi pulled down 21 offensive boards in the first meeting between these two teams this season.

    The Bulldogs have dropped six of their last eight games and with the home team taking four straight and seven of nine in this series, the Rebels will get their revenge following a 10-point loss in Starkville earlier this month. Play Mississippi Rebels for two units.

    Play: Mississippi -2½
  • bigboydan
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 08-10-05
    • 55420

    #2
    I like Miss St. in this game on the ML.
    Comment
    • Illusion
      Restricted User
      • 08-09-05
      • 25166

      #3
      I had a slight lean on the over 144.
      Comment
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