***** College Totals *****

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  • HeeluvaGuy
    SBR MVP
    • 02-15-14
    • 3449

    #1016
    Originally posted by doubledime
    Thanks for everybody's comments. One reason college basketball has always appealed to me is that there are so many games almost every night that the line makers can't possible be correct on every single one and therefore the handicappers advantage. When you get to this time of the year there are fewer games and the line makers have had 5 days to "massage" the lines so our advantage is lessened.

    As far as posting in general..... I think I can speak for most, if not all, of the quality handicappers that post plays, posting plays can be stressful if for no other reason than it's hard enough to loose your own money, but you also know others who have followed also lost. To further add to the stress, some may not be practicing good money management and even a short losing streak can be devastating to them.

    Finally, baseball is right around the corner and this is a good time for me to "clear my head" a little, before we have daily games to handicap.

    DD
    While I agree in very large part with your first paragraph, I will make the observation that there is so a lot money bet on the NCAA tournament that is really, really dumb money. Just stand in line at a Vegas sportsbook during the first Thursday or Friday morning and you'll hear some of the craziest theories, not to mention the fans just betting on their teams. That kind of behavior creates opportunities in certain games.

    But, yeah, 300 games per week certainly lends itself to a few soft lines more than the NCAAT does.
    Comment
    • doubledime
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 04-22-09
      • 9751

      #1017
      Points Awarded:
      SlickRick1382 gave doubledime 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
      PokeyAristocrat gave doubledime 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

      Thanks Slick and Pokey
      Comment
      • doubledime
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 04-22-09
        • 9751

        #1018
        Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
        While I agree in very large part with your first paragraph, I will make the observation that there is so a lot money bet on the NCAA tournament that is really, really dumb money. Just stand in line at a Vegas sportsbook during the first Thursday or Friday morning and you'll hear some of the craziest theories, not to mention the fans just betting on their teams. That kind of behavior creates opportunities in certain games.

        But, yeah, 300 games per week certainly lends itself to a few soft lines more than the NCAAT does.
        Comment
        • doubledime
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 04-22-09
          • 9751

          #1019
          Points Awarded:
          MinisterEric gave doubledime 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

          Thank you Eric
          Last edited by doubledime; 03-19-17, 11:47 AM.
          Comment
          • doubledime
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 04-22-09
            • 9751

            #1020
            Good morning,

            One Play for Sunday:

            SC/Duke over 143

            Good luck
            Comment
            • playr101
              SBR MVP
              • 01-16-10
              • 2029

              #1021
              Tailing
              ..let's get it DD
              Comment
              • Fred The Hammer
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 08-13-13
                • 11579

                #1022
                I like UCLAs team total Over 78.5 (and -3.5). UC is a solid defensive team but they haven't seen anything like UCLA! I'm 6-0 on Overs in the tournament but NC/Ark Over 163 might get dicey? NC will have to get 95 of it I'm afraid?
                Comment
                • doubledime
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 04-22-09
                  • 9751

                  #1023
                  Originally posted by Fred The Hammer
                  I like UCLAs team total Over 78.5 (and -3.5). UC is a solid defensive team but they haven't seen anything like UCLA! I'm 6-0 on Overs in the tournament but NC/Ark Over 163 might get dicey? NC will have to get 95 of it I'm afraid?
                  I just think Cinnci will try to slow the whole game down a bit giving UCLA less possessions, unless they fall too far behind. Good luck if you play it.
                  Comment
                  • doubledime
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 04-22-09
                    • 9751

                    #1024
                    Good morning,

                    Wow! What a second half!!!! Never in doubt

                    Yesterday 1-0

                    YTD Postseason: 3-1

                    Good luck
                    Comment
                    • playr101
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-16-10
                      • 2029

                      #1025
                      Good stuff DD
                      Comment
                      • HeeluvaGuy
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-15-14
                        • 3449

                        #1026
                        Originally posted by doubledime
                        Good morning,

                        Wow! What a second half!!!! Never in doubt

                        Yesterday 1-0

                        YTD Postseason: 3-1

                        Good luck
                        I played the second half over in this one last night. I have had some good success lately with these. Basically, I look for games where the first half is under because of poor shooting (not pace of play). For example, they had 34 possessions at the half and only 53 points largely because USC shot 20% in the first half. There were a lot of FTs also. The second half over was about 2 points less than the implied line should have been based on the game total, so there was value. That one was over with about 5 mins to play. Something to think about for next year.
                        Comment
                        • doubledime
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 04-22-09
                          • 9751

                          #1027
                          Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                          I played the second half over in this one last night. I have had some good success lately with these. Basically, I look for games where the first half is under because of poor shooting (not pace of play). For example, they had 34 possessions at the half and only 53 points largely because USC shot 20% in the first half. There were a lot of FTs also. The second half over was about 2 points less than the implied line should have been based on the game total, so there was value. That one was over with about 5 mins to play. Something to think about for next year.
                          That was nicely played. Great way to handicap a second half over. Have you tracked the opposite, that is, play the under if there was a great shooting in the first half?

                          DD
                          Comment
                          • doubledime
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 04-22-09
                            • 9751

                            #1028
                            Originally posted by playr101
                            Good stuff DD
                            Thanks playr
                            Comment
                            • HeeluvaGuy
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-15-14
                              • 3449

                              #1029
                              Originally posted by doubledime
                              That was nicely played. Great way to handicap a second half over. Have you tracked the opposite, that is, play the under if there was a great shooting in the first half?

                              DD
                              I have only played one 2h under based on this approach and it won. Honestly, I rarely look for those opportunities, however.
                              Comment
                              • doubledime
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 04-22-09
                                • 9751

                                #1030
                                Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                I have only played one 2h under based on this approach and it won. Honestly, I rarely look for those opportunities, however.
                                In your opinion, what is the best site to find the first half stats, (possessions, shooting %, etc.) during the game?
                                Comment
                                • HeeluvaGuy
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 02-15-14
                                  • 3449

                                  #1031
                                  Originally posted by doubledime
                                  In your opinion, what is the best site to find the first half stats, (possessions, shooting %, etc.) during the game?
                                  I'm not aware of any site that provides live stats on possessions. The best I can do is a rough calculation. I use the "Team Stats" section of the espn app. Here's the formula for estimating possessions:

                                  FGA+(FTA*.475)+Turnovers-Offensive rebounds

                                  As a practical matter, I usually just take the number of FTA, divide by 2, and subtract one. Close enough when working on the fly.
                                  Comment
                                  • Capybara
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 08-17-08
                                    • 11803

                                    #1032
                                    I was on that over last night too. Still can't believe how far it flew over when it was so far behind the pace at halftime! Nuts!

                                    Nice postseason start, Double D... anything coming for tonight perhaps?
                                    Comment
                                    • Mike Huntertz
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 08-19-09
                                      • 11207

                                      #1033
                                      Missed it, Dang!
                                      Nice
                                      Comment
                                      • doubledime
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 04-22-09
                                        • 9751

                                        #1034
                                        Good afternoon,

                                        Nothing in the NIT tonight

                                        Good luck
                                        Comment
                                        • doubledime
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 04-22-09
                                          • 9751

                                          #1035
                                          Originally posted by Capybara
                                          I was on that over last night too. Still can't believe how far it flew over when it was so far behind the pace at halftime! Nuts!

                                          Nice postseason start, Double D... anything coming for tonight perhaps?
                                          Thanks Capy. Yes it was hard to believe the difference in the two halves.
                                          Comment
                                          • doubledime
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 04-22-09
                                            • 9751

                                            #1036
                                            Good afternoon,

                                            Short card......No Plays

                                            Good luck
                                            Comment
                                            • doubledime
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 04-22-09
                                              • 9751

                                              #1037
                                              Good afternoon,

                                              Passing again

                                              Good luck
                                              Comment
                                              • doubledime
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 04-22-09
                                                • 9751

                                                #1038
                                                Good afternoon,

                                                Almost posted Purdue/Kansas over but found some reasons to lay off.

                                                No Plays Tonight

                                                Good luck
                                                Comment
                                                • HeeluvaGuy
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 02-15-14
                                                  • 3449

                                                  #1039
                                                  Yeah, I'm close on Mich/Oregon under, Purdue/Kansas over, and Xavier/Arizona over. Might land on the last one. Staying away from unders for a while.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • doubledime
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 04-22-09
                                                    • 9751

                                                    #1040
                                                    Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                                    Yeah, I'm close on Mich/Oregon under, Purdue/Kansas over, and Xavier/Arizona over. Might land on the last one. Staying away from unders for a while.
                                                    That's why I morphed into playing the first half when I play an under. Does not always work the way I want, but at least I won't be stung by an OT. I may be overthinking why I should lay off the Purdue/Kansas over, especially now that I see it's on your radar screen.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Mike Huntertz
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 08-19-09
                                                      • 11207

                                                      #1041
                                                      I'm gonna try Kansas over 155
                                                      GL
                                                      Comment
                                                      • HeeluvaGuy
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-15-14
                                                        • 3449

                                                        #1042
                                                        Originally posted by doubledime
                                                        That's why I morphed into playing the first half when I play an under. Does not always work the way I want, but at least I won't be stung by an OT. I may be overthinking why I should lay off the Purdue/Kansas over, especially now that I see it's on your radar screen.
                                                        I think it's a good play, but I am going to wait to see how it plays out in the first half. I would really like it at 153ish, but that's not going to happen. FWIW, it looks like a 72/3 possession game (though more are possible). At that pace both offenses are perfectly capable of scoring enough. The problem for me is that the defenses are also capable of shutting that down.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • doubledime
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 04-22-09
                                                          • 9751

                                                          #1043
                                                          Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                                          I think it's a good play, but I am going to wait to see how it plays out in the first half. I would really like it at 153ish, but that's not going to happen. FWIW, it looks like a 72/3 possession game (though more are possible). At that pace both offenses are perfectly capable of scoring enough. The problem for me is that the defenses are also capable of shutting that down.
                                                          I decided to play it too, not as a posted play, but just play it personally. I like your strategy on the second half, but I'm heading out to dinner so I am playing the whole game since I don't like placing anything at the dinner table, especially after a few drinks.
                                                          Last edited by doubledime; 03-24-17, 09:14 AM. Reason: grammer
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Mike Huntertz
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 08-19-09
                                                            • 11207

                                                            #1044
                                                            Originally posted by Mike Huntertz
                                                            I'm gonna try Kansas over 155
                                                            GL
                                                            Bingo! Thanxs for your input.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Fuux
                                                              SBR Rookie
                                                              • 12-17-16
                                                              • 2

                                                              #1045
                                                              Yo DD,

                                                              Do you continue your MLB thread from last year or do you make new one when the season starts?

                                                              Also what date is the opening of the season?

                                                              Keep up the good work !
                                                              Comment
                                                              • doubledime
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 04-22-09
                                                                • 9751

                                                                #1046
                                                                Originally posted by Fuux
                                                                Yo DD,

                                                                Do you continue your MLB thread from last year or do you make new one when the season starts?

                                                                Also what date is the opening of the season?

                                                                Keep up the good work !
                                                                Thanks Fuux. It will be a new thread and will start about a week after the season begins.

                                                                Comment
                                                                • doubledime
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 04-22-09
                                                                  • 9751

                                                                  #1047
                                                                  Good afternoon,

                                                                  Sorry for the late post but we are passing tonight.

                                                                  Good luck
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • doubledime
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 04-22-09
                                                                    • 9751

                                                                    #1048
                                                                    Good afternoon,

                                                                    Just can't find any value in the totals today.....Passing


                                                                    Good luck
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • doubledime
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 04-22-09
                                                                      • 9751

                                                                      #1049
                                                                      Good afternoon,

                                                                      Sorry for sounding like a broken record (for those old enough to remember records)

                                                                      Passing today

                                                                      Good luck
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • AceofSP2107
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 07-28-09
                                                                        • 717

                                                                        #1050
                                                                        DD if you had to post a play out the 2 what would be the best bet .. thanks
                                                                        Comment
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