Kid I don't mean to walk over your thread but I wanted to give my thoughts on Neb game as well... I concur with your pick completely and appreaciate your posts A LOT.
Why Nebraska -11.5?
Match Up
1. Nebraska offense is more than Martinez. G. Bell had 104 yards on 13 carries last week (8 yards avg - not too bad). Bunch, will have to avoid turnovers. That is the only way Troy will stay in this game.
2. Neb D-line is good. Real good. They had 7 sacks and 12 tackles for losses against Colorado. Troy O-line is not so great. Against Boise St. they gave up 5 sacks and 8 tackles for loss. Troy offense is more dependent on passing than rushing. Passing yards vs rushing is 2-1 and they will not be able to pass much against the Nebraska defense with this good of a D-line.
Estimated Spreads:
I don't always believe all the statistical data evaluation provided on games but when a number of estimates match up, I tend to avoid trying to swim upstream against their picks. S&P+ analysis has Neb favored by ~20-22 pts. I think that is a little high but is likely due to limited data set on teams,especially Nebraska so far in 2018. Others have posted estimates closer to 17 pt Neb favorites. Most estiimates align with these numbers and indicate Neb should win by > 11.5 pts.
I think the public is not as high on Nebraska after the loss against Colorado which is holding the line down.
In my opinion, I think it might be a closer game in the 1H and then Nebraska opens it up in the 2nd to beat the spread.
Again, apologies Kid if I walked too much on your thread.
