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John Morrison 2012-13 NBA Thread -
Sportsbook Review Forum
Games for (1/23/13): #43Resumes (B) on 1/24/13 #44 L.A. Lakers (+4) @ Memphis (A)(8:05 pm EST) #45 Indiana @ Portland (M/L)(A)(10:05 pm EST)
We will ALWAYS play the M/L on favorites and the point spread (-110) on dogs. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the play. There is no point buying in this system, with one exception, if your team is the favorite, and buying down to a (-½) point spread is cheaper than playing the M/L, then by all means, buy the points, otherwise, M/L on all favorites and point spread on dogs. All results will be based on this principle. All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team, and who is the favorite on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines. I will try to update my post as often as I can throughout the day, if the lines change. However, it is the individual bettor’s responsibility to get the appropriate line if it differs from the line in my post. System rules and backtest can be found in post #219.
Comment
cubfan2121
SBR High Roller
02-24-08
188
#2487
Originally posted by KennyM10
Guys we won the Houston E bet. 80 units to win 1, boy are we sharp. Now we have alakers c 22 units to win 1, we are sharp again! Hey risking 100 units to win 2, we really are sharp. All we need to do now is add a wallco deluxe -800 favorite on the moneyline. Lucky a unit represents one penny for you tards.
dude we get it
let it go
Its obvious you dont like walco's system
simple solution - dont play it.
Comment
knugen
SBR MVP
12-09-09
2612
#2488
We need that lakers win tonight
Comment
Wallco99
SBR Hall of Famer
01-01-11
7261
#2489
I took a chance and played the Oklahoma City series for 1-7-5, though not official. It panned out last night. Now we need Lakers.
Comment
groovybrandone
SBR Sharp
02-22-12
456
#2490
i did the same wallco, sad part is i thought the b bet there would win and had a 5 team parlay that came down to okc winning -_-
Comment
MARCUS
SBR Sharp
06-19-09
358
#2491
Originally posted by knugen
+4 on lakers now, do u think that is enough?
..no,i have it at 7..like the un 189,bol.
Comment
knugen
SBR MVP
12-09-09
2612
#2492
lakers at +7, where?
Comment
J.M. Disciple
SBR Hall of Famer
11-16-10
5154
#2493
Originally posted by clamchowder
JM, do you labby your bets? If so, may I know what it looks like? I'm thinking about doing something like this 15-15-15-15 what do you think? The numbers are in dollars, not units. The Houston series wiped more than half of my BR. I need to redefine my betting strategy that's why I'm asking for your expertise or any experienced bettors.
Thanks in advance.
I forgot the post number, but I posted an excel file last week with last seasons results on the labby line. Just look for my post. Includes graph on sheet two if you want to see the variance using a labby.
Comment
J.M. Disciple
SBR Hall of Famer
11-16-10
5154
#2494
Originally posted by knugen
lakers at +7, where?
official rules buying 3 points...
Comment
jackoffalltrades
SBR Hustler
10-15-12
55
#2495
Originally posted by KennyM10
Guys we won the Houston E bet. 80 units to win 1, boy are we sharp. Now we have alakers c 22 units to win 1, we are sharp again! Hey risking 100 units to win 2, we really are sharp. All we need to do now is add a wallco deluxe -800 favorite on the moneyline. Lucky a unit represents one penny for you tards.
The thing about sports betting, and you'll figure this out once you've been doing it longer, is that it is more about money management rather than winning or losing any one particular game or series.
Like anything else sports betting takes time, patience, and yes balls to make the big bets when you need to. I have a small initial betting unit. 1/1000th unit but I play a 2 or 3 of the best systems for every major sport. If you do this you can grind out profits, and have a hell of fun time doing it.
Comment
hagball52
SBR MVP
09-22-10
3053
#2496
Originally posted by MARCUS
..no,i have it at 7..like the un 189,bol.
didn't trust the lakeshow so i teased 'em w/jazz and kings on an 8 pt. teaser. got lakers +12
Comment
stevex
SBR Hall of Famer
05-02-10
5122
#2497
JM Traditional
1/23/2013
V2
1. LA Lakers C Bet +4 @ Memphis Grizzlies LA Lakers C Bet (with buying 3 points) +7 @ Memphis Grizzlies
V3
1. Detroit Pistons A Bet +6.5 @ Chicago Bulls Detroit Pistons A Bet (with buying 3 points) +9.5 @ Chicago Bulls
Comment
thelimit0310
SBR MVP
01-24-11
1233
#2498
7/5 Plays JAN 22
No Plays
7/5 Plays JAN 23
LA Lakers +4 vs Memphis - Bet 2
Results: +19.65
Bet 1: 14-12
Bet 2: 6-5 Utah 11/2
Portland 11/25
Boston 12/14
Houston 1/9
Minnesota 1/9
Man i'm hating that i have 4 different system bets on the lakers tonight!
Comment
Huego
SBR Sharp
01-23-11
265
#2500
Howard quote from today: Dwight Howard: “I think this will be the start of a new season tonight. Our effort and energy will be better. It starts with me”
I have a good feeling about the lakers...let's get it.
Comment
samrock67
SBR Wise Guy
05-05-12
647
#2501
Originally posted by Huego
Howard quote from today: Dwight Howard: “I think this will be the start of a new season tonight. Our effort and energy will be better. It starts with me”
I have a good feeling about the lakers...let's get it.
You would they they're due...
Comment
samrock67
SBR Wise Guy
05-05-12
647
#2502
Although the fact that the Lakers are the worst away team ATS in the league is not doing much to comfort me...
Comment
GoeGurt
SBR High Roller
09-13-12
135
#2503
Originally posted by Huego
Howard quote from today: Dwight Howard: “I think this will be the start of a new season tonight. Our effort and energy will be better. It starts with me”
I have a good feeling about the lakers...let's get it.
maybe a pro bet on dwight???
Comment
cape07
SBR Hustler
06-08-11
55
#2504
Btw... +5 for lakers on BetUs
Comment
clamchowder
SBR Sharp
02-26-11
471
#2505
Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
I forgot the post number, but I posted an excel file last week with last seasons results on the labby line. Just look for my post. Includes graph on sheet two if you want to see the variance using a labby.
Thanks JM. Lot of loves for the Lakers tonite. GO LAKERS!!!
Comment
clamchowder
SBR Sharp
02-26-11
471
#2506
JM - I found your spreadsheet, post # 2232 if anyone is interested. Per your spreadsheet, your starting BR was $4k and you ended up winning $4125.27 is that correct? You played single line and it went up to 12 digits? That's a lot to clear. Did you purchase 3pts for all your plays last season and do you purchase 3pts for all your plays this season? I know this question has been beaten into oblivion, sorry for the redundant question lol. Thanks.
Comment
J.M. Disciple
SBR Hall of Famer
11-16-10
5154
#2507
Originally posted by clamchowder
JM - I found your spreadsheet, post # 2232 if anyone is interested. Per your spreadsheet, your starting BR was $4k and you ended up winning $4125.27 is that correct? You played single line and it went up to 12 digits? That's a lot to clear. Did you purchase 3pts for all your plays last season and do you purchase 3pts for all your plays this season? I know this question has been beaten into oblivion, sorry for the redundant question lol. Thanks.
The bankroll was just an example. These were not my personal bets, but a backtest I ran to see how the labby did. The labby itself is a hybrid of a labby to reduce the variance. The bankroll bankroll using a $100 unit size would be the lowest I would recommend going to deal with the variance.
I used all lines at covers for the back test, all at (-110) not buying 3 points. I am sure the labby would of been much heavier if I had bought 3 points with the test via the juice.
The $4,125 is the profit for the season, so ending bankroll would be $8,125. Notice the graph on sheet two and the variance you go through dealing with the labby, depending on bankroll of course. If you had a $10,000 bankroll and $100 unit size you could easily handle the variance.
The labby I laid out is based on single line averaging. Also say you have 5 #s on your line, but the next day there are 3 games, I added an extra number to the line. For example, say you had 24-24-24-24-24 on your labby line, next day there are 3 plays. My new line becomes 20-20-20-20-20-20. Notice same amount of money in play. Takes a little longer to clear it this way, but eventually gets clear. At times you will see the labby go from 5 numbers to 8 numbers. Just my way of handling the variance via labby.
Comment
dlunc3
SBR Hall of Famer
10-31-09
9129
#2508
Dwight hurt... Wonderful
Comment
thelimit0310
SBR MVP
01-24-11
1233
#2509
Originally posted by dlunc3
Dwight hurt... Wonderful
So much for that quote posted earlier!
Comment
jcygts6
SBR MVP
04-05-09
3316
#2510
Another series lost. What a joke
DO WORK + KROW OD do work! do work! do work! do work!
od krow! od krow! od krow! od krow!
Comment
ZigZagMan
SBR Rookie
10-02-12
11
#2511
Wow are the Lakers terrible. No depth whatsoever.
Happy to see the Celtics/Heat wannabes fall on their faces though.
Comment
ChiLLx
SBR Hall of Famer
12-24-11
5412
#2512
It's been said before but the Lakers are pathetic
Comment
cubfan2121
SBR High Roller
02-24-08
188
#2513
lakers will top off 4th series loss this month alone
anyone know if the regular jm system, without the 3points, is in the red yet?
It has to be close with this loss
Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 27-1-1
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 28-1
Current series pending: 0
V2
Current chase record W/OUT buying point: 13-2
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 13-2
Current series pending: 0
V3
Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 32-2-4
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 37-2
Current series pending: 3 (Houston straight up)
Steve's record from the other day. You may be right on it being in the red... Lakers make 6 series losses this year if steve's record is correct.
Comment
cape07
SBR Hustler
06-08-11
55
#2516
NICE!!! 21 units lost for me today so far..... Good times!
Comment
clamchowder
SBR Sharp
02-26-11
471
#2517
Originally posted by J.M. Disciple
The bankroll was just an example. These were not my personal bets, but a backtest I ran to see how the labby did. The labby itself is a hybrid of a labby to reduce the variance. The bankroll bankroll using a $100 unit size would be the lowest I would recommend going to deal with the variance.
I used all lines at covers for the back test, all at (-110) not buying 3 points. I am sure the labby would of been much heavier if I had bought 3 points with the test via the juice.
The $4,125 is the profit for the season, so ending bankroll would be $8,125. Notice the graph on sheet two and the variance you go through dealing with the labby, depending on bankroll of course. If you had a $10,000 bankroll and $100 unit size you could easily handle the variance.
The labby I laid out is based on single line averaging. Also say you have 5 #s on your line, but the next day there are 3 games, I added an extra number to the line. For example, say you had 24-24-24-24-24 on your labby line, next day there are 3 plays. My new line becomes 20-20-20-20-20-20. Notice same amount of money in play. Takes a little longer to clear it this way, but eventually gets clear. At times you will see the labby go from 5 numbers to 8 numbers. Just my way of handling the variance via labby.
JM - Than you for your thorough explanation, this totally makes sense. GL to you throughout this season and beyond.
Comment
clamchowder
SBR Sharp
02-26-11
471
#2518
Originally posted by cape07
NICE!!! 21 units lost for me today so far..... Good times!
I lost more than half my BR, we need a drink. Cheers bro.
Comment
samrock67
SBR Wise Guy
05-05-12
647
#2519
Ok, so I did some quick math and extrapolation of the 7/5 system based on how it has performed so far this year:
Total JM series: 92
JM 7/5 series: 26(28.2%)
Bet 1 Wins: 14
Bet 2 Wins: 6
Losses: 6
Total earnings: 128 units
Total losses: 129.9 units
Overall total: -1.9 units
Using these percentages, the rest of the season would look as follows:
Total JM series: 75
JM 7/5 series: 21(28%)
Bet 1 Wins: 11
Bet 2 Wins: 5
Losses: 5
Total earnings: 102 units
Total losses: 108.25 units
Overall total(2nd half): -6.25 units Season total: -8.15 units
Here are what some other totals would look like. I will state them in the following format: Bet 1 wins/Bet 2 wins/Losses = Total
and so on and so forth. There are a lot of combinations, I won't waste thread space listing them all. Needless to say the system has to perform phenomenally well for us to get a decent profit in the 2nd half. The last time the system profited less than 66 units overall dates back to the 2006-2007 season(+35.05u) and the 2 years before that saw the 2 worst years of the system(-19.5u in 2004 and +12.2 in 2005). I'm curious to see what the overall records have been for each season- thelimit do you have the records on this? If not, no big deal. I happened to hop on right before the Minny and Houston losses so I'm down 44u on this system. Frustrating, but I can handle it. The system has excellent backtesting results so you just gotta keep the faith and grind it out.
Last edited by samrock67; 01-23-13, 11:29 PM.
Reason: Math error